riddles wrote: » Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks. We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.
Tikki Wang Wang wrote: » Was there any feedback or spin on Sajid Javid’s trip to Germany? Didn’t see much in the English media
Enzokk wrote: » If Germany exports 750 billion euro to the single market, why would they give all of that up for 60 billion? Nobody has been able to explain that and why Germany would go this way. Maybe you can give it a go.Intra-EU trade in goods - recent trends
Stop moaning ffs wrote: » Bloomberg don’t usually publish rumours or nonsense but this could be either. Johnson could be plotting an early surprise exit to outflank manoeuvres to replace him?https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-tory-suggests-johnson-could-execute-surprise-august-brexit?cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&utm_medium=social&utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter
johnnyskeleton wrote: » Germany need not be too worried. As I understand from the various missives from the UK, German exports are mostly cars, the UK will reduce tarrifs to zero on everythig they dont produce domestically, and the UK car industry will collapse under no deal. So a no deal will suit Germany because it will increase their exports to the UK, after a brief period of uncertainty. This is the real reason why the German car industry hasnt been putting the pressure on, because they stand to turn that 60bn into 80bn and the 30bn UK imports into 10bn. Now, if it is the case that lies have been told by the British about the German car industry, then obviously I would be wrong. But going on Brexiteer statements and views, there is no reason to think the German economy will face any adverse impact
prawnsambo wrote: » I'm not sure a unilateral exit works legally. Yes, the UK can repeal all EU laws and go it alone. But the EU will still recognise them as a member because EU law won't have changed.
Melanchthon wrote: » That's my point, the German economy is wobbly now before Brexit, brexit would of course harm UK more but it will hit key German sectors to a certain extent. Why do you think in general Merkel has played good cop compared to others because this is understood. This sub is very very ideologically pro-EU but I don't get how posters here don't understand how statements by Macron and Junker both pretty unpopular individuals themselves and leaks particularly the big one probably by Martin Selymar play straight into the ERG's hands. The requirement of DUP support is the issue on UK side and that was a screw up offer Borris (without leaking it first) something like 2-5 year limit on backstop for the WA end of which would trigger a immediate NI border/status poll and I believe it would pass with labour rebel support.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » Note his plan for NI: Answer Irish border Q with NI only referendum on NI only backstop
Imreoir2 wrote: » Melanchthon wrote: » That's my point, the German economy is wobbly now before Brexit, brexit would of course harm UK more but it will hit key German sectors to a certain extent. Why do you think in general Merkel has played good cop compared to others because this is understood. This sub is very very ideologically pro-EU but I don't get how posters here don't understand how statements by Macron and Junker both pretty unpopular individuals themselves and leaks particularly the big one probably by Martin Selymar play straight into the ERG's hands. The requirement of DUP support is the issue on UK side and that was a screw up offer Borris (without leaking it first) something like 2-5 year limit on backstop for the WA end of which would trigger a immediate NI border/status poll and I believe it would pass with labour rebel support. The solution to the problem somehow always seems to be to give the UK a get out of jail free card. Why would Ireland/The EU want to risk everythng on a border poll? The UK is bound by the GFA to ensure no hard border in Ireland, why should we allow them to side step that obligation through a border poll? We don't need a border poll, the solution is the UK living up to its obligations, otherwise they get no-deal.
Melanchthon wrote: » What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).
Stop moaning ffs wrote: » This ties in to the biggest mystery of it all. The DUP are against the backstop and the border in the sea because it somehow sets off their insecurities and ‘cuts them off from the mainland’. But if they get their way, NI crashes hard economically and a UI becomes all but inevitable. So if the border in the sea happens, the idea of a border poll disappears. So why don’t they get on board with the border in the sea? It prevents a UI probably ever happening surely?
Melanchthon wrote: » A hard border f-cks northern Ireland and the border counties in the republic of Ireland. Its not a get out of jail free card its a compromise position that in the end allows the people most effected to make their own choice. Hell poll could even offer NI only backstop as an option as well as rUK and joinROI. How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests
Imreoir2 wrote: » The Democrats have made it clear that the UK can go whistle if they undermine peace in NI. Pelosi does not make statements like that if she does not have the votes to make it happen. As for the Japanese, what makes you think they won't take their sweet time in doing a trade deal? The longer no-deal lasts the weaker and more desperate the UK becomes, why should the Japanese not keep the UK dangeling to force greater concessions? But let them go right ahead and take the gamble that the world will take pity and give the UK sweetheart deals all over the place to save them from their folly, lets see how it works out.
Imreoir2 wrote: » The solution to the problem somehow always seems to be to give the UK a get out of jail free card. Why would Ireland/The EU want to risk everythng on a border poll? The UK is bound by the GFA to ensure no hard border in Ireland, why should we allow them to side step that obligation through a border poll? We don't need a border poll, the solution is the UK living up to its obligations, otherwise they get no-deal.
Charles Babbage wrote: » If there should be a poll then there should be a backstop poll in NI.
Melanchthon wrote: » How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests
Stop moaning ffs wrote: » This ties in to the biggest mystery of it all. The DUP are against the backstop and the border in the sea because it somehow sets off their insecurities and ‘cuts them off from the mainland’. But if they get their way, NI crashes hard economically and a UI becomes all but inevitable. So if the border in the sea happens, the idea of a border poll disappears.So why don’t they get on board with the border in the sea? It prevents a UI probably ever happening surely?
