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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

This is the tenth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread, so Ive copied ACDs comments from the last thread to here. Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
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Shelga

Even after they leave, no doubt Brexiters will still blame the EU in some way for their problems. I just can’t see any world in which people like everyday versions of Mark Francois ever own up to having gotten it wrong. And there are a LOT of them.

serfboard

In response to this article being posted in the previous thread:

BBC wrote:

Zippy Duvall, head of the American Farm Bureau, said US farmers were keen to trade with their British "friends".

But he said fears over practices such as washing chicken in chlorine and using genetically modified (GM) crops were not "science-based".
...
Mr Duvall, himself a poultry farmer in Georgia, said he wanted to have "a conversation" about US food standards given the concerns in the UK.

One of the most controversial practices is washing chicken with chlorine to kill germs, which is banned in the EU. This is not because the wash itself is harmful but over fears that treating meat with chlorine at the end allows poorer hygiene elsewhere in the production process.

"You know, here in America we treat our water with chlorine," Mr Duvall told the BBC's Today programme.

"So there is no scientific basis that says that washing poultry with a chlorine wash just to be safe of whatever pathogens might be on that chicken as it was prepared for the market, should be taken away.

"If there was something wrong with it our federal inspection systems would not be allowing us to use that," he added.

Mr. Duvall wants the conversation about chlorine-washed chicken to be "science-based" but then says "in America we treat our water with chlorine. So there is no scientific basis that says that washing poultry with a chlorine wash ... should be taken away."

Maybe, Mr Duvall, you should learn a little science, before asking for a science-based conversation :rolleyes:

Capt'n Midnight

brickster69 wrote: »

No but i know a growing Rest of the world is a better place to do business than a shrinking EU. EU is 20% now, soon to be 14% and once Albania and co. join it will become smaller and smaller.

Oh dear.

The UK economy is shrinking. If you measure it by Euro or Dollars.

Most of the "rest of the world" economic growth, c. 80% of it IIRC, is India and China.

Both have made it very clear there will be demands for visas as part of any trade deal. If the UK fails to get a great deal with them they are relying on getting a deal with "America First".

UK car exports to China fell by something 53% last year.
Indian owned Jaguar lost billions there a while back.

eire4

In reference to a recent post on the just closed thread about the US farm lobby saying that Britain will have to accept their standards in any potential deal I had to laugh. Welcome to post brexit Britain where the health and safety of the population go out the window so the almighty dollar can max out profits.

Experience_day

I reckon Germany should openly say no deal.

Professor Moriarty

Experience_day wrote: »

I reckon Germany should openly say no deal.

As if by magic: A report today:

Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government. The leaked paper is the first evidence that Germany may be preparing to let Britain walk away with No Deal rather than back down to Boris Johnson’s demand to drop the Irish backstop. The paper was prepared by civil servants for the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, ahead of face-to-face talks with the chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, in Berlin on Friday.

BluePlanet

I had read somewhere that there were ranklings in some quarters that the WA already offered Britain too much access.
It's madness they turned it down, they won't get a better deal, ever.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic: A report today:

Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government. The leaked paper is the first evidence that Germany may be preparing to let Britain walk away with No Deal rather than back down to Boris Johnson’s demand to drop the Irish backstop. The paper was prepared by civil servants for the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, ahead of face-to-face talks with the chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, in Berlin on Friday.

Johnson heading to Berlin and Paris next week.

What happened to not meeting them before there were changes to the WA?

BJ knows an emergency UK govt is now closer than ever so he has to move.

The EU don't have to move one iota.

Experience_day

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As if by magic: A report today:

Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government. The leaked paper is the first evidence that Germany may be preparing to let Britain walk away with No Deal rather than back down to Boris Johnson’s demand to drop the Irish backstop. The paper was prepared by civil servants for the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, ahead of face-to-face talks with the chancellor of the exchequer, Sajid Javid, in Berlin on Friday.

See that's [mod edit - language please] suspiciously convenient [/mod edit]. How very convenient, they "leak" that when government at it's weakest. Oh noes we must overthrow teh bad guys now, or look what might happen. :rolleyes:

Mr.Nice Guy

While I hope Merkel and Macron are firm with him behind closed doors, I would hope they're also savvy enough to know that for Johnson this is likely to be about optics and trying to pin blame on a No Deal on the EU. Ideally then they will not give the Brexiters any ammunition to stir up conflict.

We've seen the ridiculous lengths the media across the water will go to in order to whip up a disrespect narrative. Recall Tusk's cherry-picking joke, and the 'did you call me nebulous?' nonsense from May to Juncker.

'We are here to talk and engage and don't want to see a No Deal, but the backstop cannot be scrapped' should be the message.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Johnson heading to Berlin and Paris next week.

What happened to not meeting them before there were changes to the WA?

BJ knows an emergency UK govt is now closer than ever so he has to move.

The EU don't have to move one iota.

The leak is designed to set the tone. There will be no triumphant Javid or Johnson returning having sorted out the EU with full-throated demands. It'll be more Chamberlain than Churchill.

serfboard

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Germany expects a No Deal Brexit and is not prepared to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, according to leaked details of an internal briefing paper for Angela Merkel’s government.

As always, the timeless quote from Yes, Minister applies:

Yes Minister wrote:

The ship of state is the only ship that leaks from the top

This is coming from the top of the German government and is communicating the following to the British: Away with your threatening no-deal, because we're fully prepared to let you go through with it.

Professor Moriarty

serfboard wrote: »

As always, the timeless quote from Yes, Minister applies:

This is coming from the top of the German government and is communicating the following to the British: Away with your threatening no-deal, because we're fully prepared to let you go through with it.

Actually, further on in the article, it quotes this from the briefing paper:

Preparations by Germany and the rest of the EU-27 to manage the impact of No Deal are “largely complete”, and the European Commission is not planning any further emergency measures.

Akrasia

The ardent brexiteers will always insist that theEU will blink first when faced with a credible threat of a no deal, despite the current staring contest record of at least 3-0 to the EU

johnnyskeleton

So just as a little summary as to where we are now, as I see it, we have a UK Prime Minister who was elected on a platform of, basically, either No Deal or a deal wholly favourable to the UK. Then, he turns around and aays he thinks a No Deal is extremely unlikely, but that it had to be kept on the table to strengthen their hand. Basically, to bluff with no deal to get a better deal. Of course the bluff doesnt work if you say publically that its a bluff. This has now crystalised into the old deal is dead, and the backstop has to go before any new renegotiation takes place.

Next, the majority in the HOC is down to 1, if even. Of that majority, a small but significant group led by Marc Francois, have indicated that they wont accept a deal even if the backstop is gone.

In Brussels, they gave the UK an extension of six months that they really didnt want to give them, on the basis that it would give time for the Uk government to organise their own house politically. It was expressly agreed that this time would not be used to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and the EU Council declared as such in agreeing to the extension. The negotiator under Art 50 has gone back to normal duties as the negotistion is now over. The EU leaders know that Boris is bluffing, nd that even if he is prepared to carry out the bluff the UK parliament will still not go for any deal.

Fast forward to the end of October, I cant really see anything having changed. Even if the backstop is dropped it still wont pass parliament. The time given to the UK to get itself in order has been squandered. So now we just wait I guess

Experience_day

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

So just as a little summary as to where we are now, we have a UK Prime Minister who was elected on a platform of, basically, either No Deal or a deal wholly favourable to the UK. Then, he turns around and aays he thinks a No Deal is extremely unlikely, but that it had to be kept on the table to strengthen their hand. Basically, to bluff with no deal to get a better deal. Of course the bluff doesnt work if you say publically that its a bluff. This has now crystalised into the old deal is dead, and the backstop has to go before any new renegotiation takes place.

Next, the majority in the HOC is down to 1, if even. Of that majority, a small but significant group led by Marc Francois, have indicated that they wont accept a deal even if the backstop is gone.

In Brussels, they gave the UK an extension of six months that they really didnt want to give them, on the basis that it would give time for the Uk government to organise their own house politically. It was expressly agreed that this time would not be used to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and the EU Council declared as such in agreeing to the extension. The negotiator under Art 50 has gone back to normal duties as the negotistion is now over. The EU leaders know that Boris is bluffing, nd that even if he is prepared to carry out the bluff the UK parliament will still not go for any deal.

Fast forward to the end of October, I cant really see anything having changed. Even if the backstop is dropped it still wont pass parliament. The time given to the UK to get itself in order has been squandered. So now we just wait I guess

They gave the extension as they were also not prepared for no deal, and also desperately do not want it. Regardless of the spin, Britains contributions have not been factored into the medium term budget.

Just like if the push comes to the wire again, they will grant an extension without blinking. Further delay does them only good in terms of allowing them to prep more, sap more confidence in UK business to the benefit of european business and ultimately (Which I believe 10000%) hope to God that the UK manages to stay in the EU which solves all their problems.

Lackadaisical

It’s also a bit like playing chicken with a train. The EU has to refer to its 27 members before it can do anything even approaching blinking. So it’s currently not in any position to blink and operates within very narrow terms of reference for negotiations and treaty law and so on.

The Tories aren’t really getting the fact that the EU as a bloc doesn’t really plead their kind of politics not does what’s said in the British tabloids particularly matter to it. They have to start dealing in facts.

amacca

Akrasia wrote: »

The ardent brexiteers will always insist that theEU will blink first when faced with a credible threat of a no deal, despite the current staring contest record of at least 3-0 to the EU

AH but sure they simply were not staring correctly before this so naturally it didn't work

This time it will work because they will mean it and the EU will know they mean business.......actually poor choice of words there...the EU will know they mean to do harm to businesses (with their own coming in for the lions share it seems)

[Deleted User]

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Oh dear.

The UK economy is shrinking. If you measure it by Euro or Dollars.

Most of the "rest of the world" economic growth, c. 80% of it IIRC, is India and China.

Both have made it very clear there will be demands for visas as part of any trade deal. If the UK fails to get a great deal with them they are relying on getting a deal with "America First".

UK car exports to China fell by something 53% last year.
Indian owned Jaguar lost billions there a while back.

Much of that (European) "growth"or lack of is simply down to population changes globally, why do you think that so many people were imported into the EU by most member states in recent years, anything to maintain growth will be done to stop the slide down the global league table.

Nody

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

While I hope Merkel and Macron are firm with him behind closed doors, I would hope they're also savvy enough to know that for Johnson this is likely to be about optics and trying to pin blame on a No Deal on the EU. Ideally then they will not give the Brexiters any ammunition to stir up conflict.

That goes both ways though; who do you think the EU27 politicans will blame for the upcoming recession? Oh it's UK's fault; we did our best and gave them a better offer than anyone else and they decided to say "F "insert country" we don't care that you'll be hurt" and that's the cause of this. Same with companies cutting down due to the recession; I'm certain Brexit will be a very common listed reason officially or unofficially as the reason for the cuts.

johnnyskeleton

Experience_day wrote: »

They gave the extension as they were also not prepared for no deal, and also desperately do not want it. Regardless of the spin, Britains contributions have not been factored into the medium term budget.

This undoubtedly was a factor influencing several Council members, but it must be stressed how legalistic the EU is. Without positive law they are nothing. So while the voting intentions of different Member States may have been for different reasons, the only reason the EU as a body agreed to it was oncondition that it was to have the Withdrawal Agreement passed.

As for Britians contributions, its clear frkm Geoffrey Cox' advice as published that they will pay this regardless because, despite the House of Lords' rather blinkered opinion on the legality of it (which even that was heavily caveated), the Attorney General of the UK has advised the UK Government of the extremely risky move it would be not to pay what is owed. Essentially, it would be an act of soverign default, a sine qua non of any future trade deal, and possibly grounds for a case in WTO to impose sanctions on the UK (arguably a breah of the GFA could also be grounds for WTO approved sanctions). All current post Brexit projections (which are bad for the UK) would be a lot worse if they defaulted as well.

Just like if the push comes to the wire again, they will grant an extension without blinking. Further delay does them only good in terms of allowing them to prep more, sap more confidence in UK business to the benefit of european business and ultimately (Which I believe 10000%) hope to God that the UK manages to stay in the EU which solves all their problems.

Im not sure they will. First, the French were extremely reluctant to grant the last extensions, the Eastern and Southern European countries largely dont care, no deal preparations everywhere except Ireland are as good as theyre going to be, and so the maximum pressure would be on the UK to pass the WA by 31st Oct or else.

Im tempted by the idea of a Brexit that is extended out for so long that eventually in 2037 people lose interest and it fizzles out without remark. Sadly that wont happen now. The Brexit Party are too noisey (both in the EU Parliament and in UK politics) and Johnson and the Conservatives wouldnt survive a long extension or indeed amy extension bar one for a general election which he can say was forced on him.

I think the point of optimal returns for Brexit uncertainty has been reached, and politically the EU will need to be seen to take a firm line this time. The UK finnagled a six months extension last time, reneged on their promises and have been wholly unpleasant towards the EU. The time has come to end it, and with no real prospect of the UK cancelling Article 50 permanently, a further extension makes the EU look weak, to the point of endangering the single market.

I think our politicial leaders know this too. I think they would be happy to turn around to the UK and say "look, we tried, but the EU just wouldnt budge", so to speak.

J Mysterio

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

While I hope Merkel and Macron are firm with him behind closed doors, I would hope they're also savvy enough to know that for Johnson this is likely to be about optics and trying to pin blame on a No Deal on the EU. Ideally then they will not give the Brexiters any ammunition to stir up conflict.

We've seen the ridiculous lengths the media across the water will go to in order to whip up a disrespect narrative. Recall Tusk's cherry-picking joke, and the 'did you call me nebulous?' nonsense from May to Juncker.

'We are here to talk and engage and don't want to see a No Deal, but the backstop cannot be scrapped' should be the message.

What an extraordinary thing that was. Like a kid who was passed gossip acting out. But she was aggresive. It was quite a moment.

Varta

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

While I hope Merkel and Macron are firm with him behind closed doors, I would hope they're also savvy enough to know that for Johnson this is likely to be about optics and trying to pin blame on a No Deal on the EU. Ideally then they will not give the Brexiters any ammunition to stir up conflict.

We've seen the ridiculous lengths the media across the water will go to in order to whip up a disrespect narrative. Recall Tusk's cherry-picking joke, and the 'did you call me nebulous?' nonsense from May to Juncker.

'We are here to talk and engage and don't want to see a No Deal, but the backstop cannot be scrapped' should be the message.

At that point who will care about optics that only the British will see. They will be gone and no one in the EU will be paying them any attention. Blame will be a word used only in the, now cut adrift, UK.

Varta

Experience_day wrote: »

They gave the extension as they were also not prepared for no deal, and also desperately do not want it. Regardless of the spin, Britains contributions have not been factored into the medium term budget.

Just like if the push comes to the wire again, they will grant an extension without blinking. Further delay does them only good in terms of allowing them to prep more, sap more confidence in UK business to the benefit of european business and ultimately (Which I believe 10000%) hope to God that the UK manages to stay in the EU which solves all their problems.

You are about three years out of date with your thinking. Come back in twenty years time when the UK's application to join the EU is being considered.

Water John

The notion that Corbyn can get a majority in the HOC is fanciful.

Varta

Water John wrote: »

The notion that Corbyn can get a majority in the HOC is fanciful.

He is toxic. Whether or not he deserves to be toxic is irrelevant. Once the rock has begun rolling down the hill nothing can stop it. He will never be acceptable to a majority of the British electorate.

Strazdas

Experience_day wrote: »

They gave the extension as they were also not prepared for no deal, and also desperately do not want it. Regardless of the spin, Britains contributions have not been factored into the medium term budget.

Just like if the push comes to the wire again, they will grant an extension without blinking. Further delay does them only good in terms of allowing them to prep more, sap more confidence in UK business to the benefit of european business and ultimately (Which I believe 10000%) hope to God that the UK manages to stay in the EU which solves all their problems.

It depends who 'they' are. Apparently Macron was very annoyed about the October extension and didn't want to give it and had to be persuaded to do so by Merkel and a few others. But he sent the clear message out that he has had enough and wants no more extensions after this.

There's a story he told Varadkar to ramp up his preparations for No Deal at that meeting.

FrancieBrady

When do things speed up? When is parliament back?

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

The notion that Corbyn can get a majority in the HOC is fanciful.

May well be. I dont know why, though, why any prospective Tory rebel couldnt abstain in any VONC so at least they wouldn't be proactively voting for JC as a short-term PM given that must be even more egregious to them than the reality of a no deal disastrous crash out.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When do things speed up? When is parliament back?

Summer recess ends on September 3rd