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How long before Irish reunification?

[Deleted User]

Just reading an article in today's Irish Times - Brexit lights touchpaper for next political firestorm – Irish unity - and the highlighted line stood out. The fact that the Unionist academic, Peter Shirlow, is actually saying he'd be surprised if there's a United Ireland in 15 years and not 50 or even 30 years is revealing. 15 years is nothing.

The figures tell an obvious story. The demographic shift is clear from school and third-level figures, and has been for several years. In 2010/2011 there were 163,683 Catholics and 120,397 Protestants in Northern Ireland schools from nursery up to second level. In the current school year the Catholic figure stands at 175,617, while the Protestant figure is down to 114,290. It was a similar story at university level.... “But there still should be a unionist majority,” says Shirlow. “Unification is not going to be as soon as republicans think. Gerry Adams said it would be in 2016, but that is three years ago and counting. I would be surprised if there is a united Ireland in 15 years’ time.” Feeney disagrees. At the start of 2012 he saw a united Ireland coming in about 25 years. Now he thinks it will happen in about 10. “It is going to be somewhere in the 2020s; that is the speed change is moving at,” he says.

The last census in 2011 put the Protestant population at 48%, just 3% more than Catholics at 45%.

More recent figures from 2016 show that among those of working age 44% are now Catholic and 40% Protestant. The difference is even more marked among schoolchildren with 51% Catholic, 37% Protestant.

Only among the over 60s is there a majority of Protestants with 57%, compared to Catholics on 35%.

Dr Nolan said: "Three years from now we will end up, I think, in the ironic situation on the centenary of the state where we actually have a state that has a Catholic majority."
('Catholic majority possible' in NI by 2021)

David McWilliams, Demographics are shifting towards a united Ireland - we must have a plan

That Angela Merkel was in Dublin a week or two ago and making comparisons with the reunification of her own country speaks volumes for how the most powerful person in Europe sees Northern Ireland's medium-long-term position. That all-Ireland context for NI, rather than a UK context, was very significant.

Given the enormous changes that Brexit is making on top of the demographic change, how long do you think it will be before Ireland is reunified?

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Comments

cameramonkey

feargale wrote: »

Whatever Unionists have been guilty of in the past, like it or not you cannot escape the fact that you are going to need a substantial proportion of them on side to get your United Ireland. It might pay you to treat them with a little more respect than triumphalist posting would indicate.

No triumphalist posting here just stating that they are in a failed political entity that has been impoverished both financially and politically by the Union.
They need a bit of reality and all they can say is you cant afford us because of state is so financially backward, frankly that is an embarrassing and depressing argument.

feargale wrote: »

And you can forget this notion of outbreeding them. It seems that for every newborn Catholic tilting the balance in recent times another Catholic has drifted to Unionism.

Ha that's a good one, no matter how much you may like to believe that its not true. Have you got any statistic for that outlandish statement or did you just make it up?

feargale wrote: »

The less SF has to say about a UI the more likely it is to happen. But that is a faint hope. SF is now more concerned about its image than about its much vaunted core values as witness a "socialist" party in Ireland which is "business friendly" to its donors in the USA. Imagine the Indonesian military trying to persuade East Timor to rejoin Indonnesia!

Criticize SF all you like if it makes you feel better, I don't see what has got to do with what i said about the six counties, its a mess and the British should be ashamed about the state they have left the place in. The sooner they clear out and we get a chance to rebuild the better.

RobMc59

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I call you the border issue fox.

You like running around a topic taking occasional shots and not actually answering or addressing anything.

But you have previous for that. Least you’re consistent.

I didn't look at your posts in depth but a cursory glance shows you seem confrontational and argumentative -I won't resort to name calling like you though...

FrancieBrady

feargale wrote: »

Whatever Unionists have been guilty of in the past, like it or not you cannot escape the fact that you are going to need a substantial proportion of them on side to get your United Ireland. It might pay you to treat them with a little more respect than triumphalist posting would indicate.
And you can forget this notion of outbreeding them. It seems that for every newborn Catholic tilting the balance in recent times another Catholic has drifted to Unionism.
The less SF has to say about a UI the more likely it is to happen. But that is a faint hope. SF is now more concerned about its image than about its much vaunted core values as witness a "socialist" party in Ireland which is "business friendly" to its donors in the USA. Imagine the Indonesian military trying to persuade East Timor to rejoin Indonnesia!

You can smell the primary fear of partitionists off that post. The fear that republicans or SF might get something they want. Unionists have been using that 'fear' for decades to bolster their belligerent creed.

Stop moaning ffs

RobMc59 wrote: »

I didn't look at your posts in depth but a cursory glance shows you seem confrontational and argumentative -I won't resort to name calling like you though...

I’m sorry. Didn’t mean to come off like that.

[Deleted User]

Hard to argue with people claiming Northern Ireland isn't a country and it isn't part of the United Kingdom

Stop moaning ffs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hard to argue with people claiming Northern Ireland isn't a country and it isn't part of the United Kingdom

We were splitting hairs to be honest. Your average Brit doesn’t even see NI as part of their country though to be fair. It’s very much a one sided relationship. Unrequited love almost.

RobMc59

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We were splitting hairs to be honest. Your average Brit doesn’t even see NI as part of their country though to be fair. It’s very much a one sided relationship. Unrequited love almost.

I disagree,NI is an important part of the Union and in times of need has been there,no questions asked imo.

_blaaz

RobMc59 wrote: »

I disagree,NI is an important part of the Union and in times of need has been there,no questions asked imo.

Mate....the brits offered it up in brexit negociations

The infamous backstop was a british proposal

Stop moaning ffs

RobMc59 wrote: »

I disagree,NI is an important part of the Union and in times of need has been there,no questions asked imo.

It’s not seen that way by them in my experience but we all have different experiences of folks over there I reckon. My first time in London I met people who were amazed I was ‘normal’. Their only experience of Irish people were travellers. And they thought that’s what / the way we all are. This is long ago (92 I think?)
But even now vast majority still think Ireland is in the uk.

Dyr

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We were splitting hairs to be honest. Your average Brit doesn’t even see NI as part of their country though to be fair. It’s very much a one sided relationship. Unrequited love almost.

Unionism never gave a **** how they're seen in Britain, all they ever wanted from Britain was financial blank cheque to bankroll them and a political blank cheque to let them do as they please

[Deleted User]

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We were splitting hairs to be honest. Your average Brit doesn’t even see NI as part of their country though to be fair. It’s very much a one sided relationship. Unrequited love almost.

What your average brit thinks doesn't change the fact that NI is a country and is part of the UK

Stop moaning ffs

Bambi wrote: »

Unionism never gave a **** how they're seen in Britain, all they ever wanted from Britain was financial blank cheque to bankroll them and a political blank cheque to let them do as they please

I’m not really sure that’s true if you dig down into it but it certainly seems that way on the surface. DUP particularly mired in corruption it seems.

_blaaz

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/majority-would-now-back-a-united-ireland-with-support-highest-in-the-border-region-says-poll-38014834.html

[Deleted User]

_blaaz wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/majority-would-now-back-a-united-ireland-with-support-highest-in-the-border-region-says-poll-38014834.html

Of course things change a little when there is a referendum, but there is no way the people of the South are ever going to vote against a united Ireland, that's fantasy land stuff.

Stop moaning ffs

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What your average brit thinks doesn't change the fact that NI is a country and is part of the UK

Here’s a prime example. Seems to think Ireland is in the UK
Not the brightest bulbs these people.

https://twitter.com/AdamHawkinsGB/status/1145350216893304832

Greyfox

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

Of course things change a little when there is a referendum, but there is no way the people of the South are ever going to vote against a united Ireland, that's fantasy land stuff.

They will vote against it IF they think it will be bad for the economy.

Stop moaning ffs

You’ll have the EU financing to help stability though. And possibly UK would too.

RobMc59

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It was merely pointing out that what you might perceive as your "country", the UK as it currently is, is not very old at all and therefore you should expect it, and your current concept of "Britishness", to change once again, this time in the next 3-8 years. Brexiteers recurrently come across as people who don't realise how young the current UK is.

I'd rather remain in the EU and see brexit as a self inflicted catastrophe.

[Deleted User]

Greyfox wrote: »

They will vote against it IF they think it will be bad for the economy.

Not a hope of a no vote. It probably won't be very good for the Southern economy, most likely to be a minor inconvenience, but it'll pass comfortably one way or another. Partition is an obvious historic injustice.

I think it could be an interesting campaign though, people who have never canvassed or put their money behind a campaign will be active.

IMO the best and probably only hope for those who want to avoid reunificaiton is to try and make the border more insignificant, and try to address the causes of nationalist/Catholic disapproval. I can't understand why the DUP aren't trying to move to the centre on every issue possible, refusing to budge on the Irish language act and gay marriage is suicide.

_blaaz

Greyfox wrote: »

They will vote against it IF they think it will be bad for the economy.

If your are so confident of your opioion....surely youll welcome a border poll and put your money where your mouth is?

FrancieBrady

Greyfox wrote: »

They will vote against it IF they think it will be bad for the economy.

The absolute arrogance of you to think that people haven't the brains to work out that there might be a cost, but still think it is the best thing for this island and an investment.

feargale

feargale wrote: »

Whatever Unionists have been guilty of in the past, like it or not you cannot escape the fact that you are going to need a substantial proportion of them on side to get your United Ireland. It might pay you to treat them with a little more respect than triumphalist posting would indicate.
And you can forget this notion of outbreeding them. It seems that for every newborn Catholic tilting the balance in recent times another Catholic has drifted to Unionism.
The less SF has to say about a UI the more likely it is to happen. But that is a faint hope. SF is now more concerned about its image than about its much vaunted core values as witness a "socialist" party in Ireland which is "business friendly" to its donors in the USA. Imagine the Indonesian military trying to persuade East Timor to rejoin Indonesia!

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You can smell the primary fear of partitionists off that post. The fear that republicans or SF might get something they want. Unionists have been using that 'fear' for decades to bolster their belligerent creed.

You haven't a bull's clue as to how I would vote in a UI referendum.

Now let's analyse your allegedly keen sense of smell:

feargale wrote: »

Whatever Unionists have been guilty of in the past, like it or not you cannot escape the fact that you are going to need a substantial proportion of them on side to get your United Ireland.

Do you agree or disagree with that?

feargale wrote: »

And you can forget this notion of outbreeding them.

Do you agree or disagree with those who think otherwise?

feargale wrote: »

The less SF has to say about a UI the more likely it is to happen.

Agree or disagree? Do you think that SF are best placed to preach to the unconverted?

feargale wrote: »

a "socialist" party in Ireland which is "business friendly" to its donors in the USA.

Do you acknowledge or dispute this, or have you anything to say about it other than a scattergun response iincluding unsubstantiated BS about partitionists?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The fear that republicans or SF might get something they want.

"Republicans" should get what they want if it's the same as what the people want. Full stop,. The Rule of Law has already been bent to give some of them an amnesty for the most appalling atrocities, endorsed by us when we voted yes to the GFA. Is there something more you would like to get, even if the people don't want it?

Greyfox

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

I think it could be an interesting campaign though, people who have never canvassed or put their money behind a campaign will be active.

It would be an interesting campaign. In Dublin the possibility of a UI doesnt come up that much in casual conversation. It would be nice to see a proper debate about it

FrancieBrady

feargale wrote: »

You haven't a bull's clue as to how I would vote in a UI referendum.

Now let's analyse your allegedly keen sense of smell:

Do you agree or disagree with that?

Do you agree or disagree with those who think otherwise?

Agree or disagree? Do you think that SF are best placed to preach to the unconverted?

Do you acknowledge or dispute this, or have you anything to say about it other than a scattergun response iincluding unsubstantiated BS about partitionists?

"Republicans" should get what they want if it's the same as what the people want. Full stop,. The Rule of Law has already been bent to give some of them an amnesty for the most appalling atrocities, endorsed by us when we voted yes to the GFA. Is there something more you would like to get, even if the people don't want it?

Feargale...the 'people' here are convinced by a margin of almost 2-1.

And it only has to be 51% in northern Ireland. A few years of Brexit effects and unionists will be persuaded, they will not need SF to 'convert' them.
A few big farmers losing their land will do the trick imo.

Stop moaning ffs

What would actually change post United ireland? We have two hugely interdependent economies. Massive cross border(effectively no border) bodies and cooperations.
It wouldn’t change the day to day for the vast majority of us I don’t think? The gardai and PSNI would merge that sort of thing.
Anyone any ideas what else could or might change?

It feel like it would be marriage equality passing. A truly monumentous event recognised on the global stage and a credit to us and something we can all be proud of, then life just went on after. Think about that aspect and the repeal aspect and how welcome that would be up north too. Two profound issues that you would see people on all sides up there voting in favour of a UI for. Both affect young people especially.

facehugger99

Only 37% of people in the ROI say they are willing to pay for a UI.

Actual percentage would be way lower than this - between 20 to 25%- and mostly made up of those who don't fund anything in the country anyway.

People don't want to pay extra tax for tangible benefits - they certainly won't be paying extra for an outdated bit of blarney. It's a truth even the most hardened Shinnerbots know deep down.

Stop moaning ffs

You have a real hard on for this to never happen hugger:)

What’ll you do if it does happen?

FrancieBrady

facehugger99 wrote: »

Only 37% of people in the ROI say they are willing to pay for a UI.

Actual percentage would be way lower than this - between 20 to 25%- and mostly made up of those who don't fund anything in the country anyway.

People don't want to pay extra tax for tangible benefits - they certainly won't be paying extra for an outdated bit of blarney. It's a truth even the most hardened Shinnerbots know deep down.

you are gonna stick to some poll because you like the results. Hilarious.

Stop moaning ffs

Where’s the poll that says only 37% are happy to pay for it?

And how did you determine these arexones that don’t contribute anything anyway?

You’re building castles on sand there FH

Del.Monte

Do any of those posting pro-unification posts here ever go up north or for that matter drop in on YouTube to check the Orange Parades? Like them or loathe them, they haven't gone away you know.

What do people expect in event of reunification - all the Unionists to get the boat?Be careful what you wish for as the result of a border poll in favour of unity could unleash trouble that would make 1969/1998 conflict look like a picnic - only this time it wouldn't be largely confined to the Six Counties.

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