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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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[Deleted User]

tigger123 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/388-for-a-bunk-bed-in-a-shower-room-are-young-people-really-excited-about-paying-less-for-less-38140713.html

Renting for this generation is such a depressing place to be.

To be honest people living in that type of accommodation would likely be young language students. They probably came here for a short time, to experience the culture. I dont know how you could live in that type of house and hold down a serious job

tigger123

https://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/irish-news/388-for-a-bunk-bed-in-a-shower-room-are-young-people-really-excited-about-paying-less-for-less-38140713.html

Renting for this generation is such a depressing place to be.

Assetbacked

beauf wrote: »

Only if the rent or the property hold their value.
If either was to drop significantly then that would have a knock on effect.
Funds might try to cash out early, if there is better potential somewhere else.

But I think that unlikely to happen suddenly or in the short term. Because demand and supply isn't likely to radically change overnight.

I wouldn't be so sure on this. US and Chinese trade war could escalate which would spook the markets big time. Hard Brexit is far more likely now than a few weeks ago given a new referendum is not on the cards.

All good news for those renting in any event if asset owners are hit, it would certainly help pick up the slack from the past few years.

Cuddlesworth

The_Conductor wrote: »

That, for one, is a property that the local authority *needs* to take action on.
Frankly- its incredible that its been allowed to remain in its current format (for at least the last 10 years- possibly longer).
The whole place should be demolished (other than the original house) and returned to its original state.

OSI aerial map from 95 has the extensions. Its the type of thing that has been there for so long you would find it difficult to prove when they put it in. I hope nobody buys it though, it would have to be a cash sale for a slum.

OwlsZat

OwlsZat wrote: »

OECD spelling out the current risks. A disorderly Brexit, a change in international corporation tax policy or a relaxing of credit lending rules.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-property-market-at-risk-of-new-boom-to-bust-cycle-oecd-warns-1.3899358

Pascal seeing some changes coming down the tracks. Wondering if these are the tax changes the OECD were referencing.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0523/1051208-donohoe-tax-conference/

bluelamp

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

I can't see it having ever met planning guidelines or ever getting retention for that monstrosity of a garden extension.

God forbid there was ever a fire in it

Edit: Had a good look on google maps, there isn't even a window to escape from in the entire length of the extension.

Terrifying.

lawred2

The_Conductor wrote: »

That, for one, is a property that the local authority *needs* to take action on.
Frankly- its incredible that its been allowed to remain in its current format (for at least the last 10 years- possibly longer).
The whole place should be demolished (other than the original house) and returned to its original state.

Amazed neighbours haven't reported it - I'd almost be sure that they have. So I'd be surprised if the council weren't aware.

How could anyone live beside what is effectively nothing short of a slum?

The_Conductor

That, for one, is a property that the local authority *needs* to take action on.
Frankly- its incredible that its been allowed to remain in its current format (for at least the last 10 years- possibly longer).
The whole place should be demolished (other than the original house) and returned to its original state.

cruizer101

Its a bizarre one alright, there is no way there could be planning for it there is nothing left of the back garden at all.

Here is pic from google maps

And another from an angle (if you hold ctrl in maps you can tilt the camera)

It had been asking higher mind, 1.5 million back in 08 apparently
https://thepropertypin.com/t/35-bunting-road-walkinstown-300k-25/9316
Less than half the asking from back then, but interestingly the rent roll was the same, I nearly would have thought be more in the current climate.

Cuddlesworth

bri007 wrote: »

Yeah it’s a funny set up, wonder if the way the house is currently set up if it is mortgageable or if banks would have difficult issue funds being in separate flats.

I can't see it having ever met planning guidelines or ever getting retention for that monstrosity of a garden extension.

bri007

Yeah it’s a funny set up, wonder if the way the house is currently set up if it is mortgageable or if banks would have difficult issue funds being in separate flats.

OwlsZat wrote: »

Yikes. We are living history of tenement life and have to suffer the consequences of there being virtually no legal evictions. Yet irony of all ironies we still allow tenement living. Unhinged mind whoever birthed that crack den. Shane on the EA for trying to sell it as is.

OwlsZat

bri007 wrote: »

Just go to daft, search house in Walkinstown, set min price to €600k and click search and it will come up

Yikes. We are living history of tenement life and have to suffer the consequences of there being virtually no legal evictions. Yet irony of all ironies we still allow tenement living. <MOD SNIP> Shame on the EA for trying to sell it as is.

bri007

Just go to daft, search house in Walkinstown, set min price to €600k and click search and it will come up

Sheeps

If a moderator gives permission I'll post it, but it's easy enought to find if you search for houses between 650 and 750k in Walkinstown with 9 bedrooms.

OwlsZat

Sheeps wrote: »

I thought that is against the rules in this particular thread?

Oh right. Wasn't aware!

Sheeps

OwlsZat wrote: »

Please post the link if you still have it.

I thought that is against the rules in this particular thread?

OwlsZat

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a former 3 bed council house in Walkinstown on Daft right now, that has been retrofitted to a tenement and is askking for €700,000. The ad claims an income of €72,000 p/a in rent.

Poor landlords.

Please post the link if you still have it.

beauf

People used to buy first houses or apartments with idea they would eventually move somewhere else or upgrade later. This is more difficult now so I would also suggest take a long term view of what you buy.

The_Conductor

airportgirl83 wrote: »

So would you buy right now or wait? Not in the hurry to buy but curious what people think.

It depends on what your motivation is.
Prices (esp. in the greater Dublin area) have plateau'ed and aren't rising at abnormal rates any longer.
The legislative regime is further favouring tenants who rent the whole time.

If you intend to stay long term in a particular area- and have access to finance- it makes sense to buy.

If you might want to move elsewhere in the medium term (when you meet a significant other, or have kids- or your circumstances change)- then it makes sense to rent.

The urge to buy before you get priced out of the market- is largely a thing of the past- prices aren't rising strongly any longer- its more a straight decision- do you see yourself staying in the area long term- or not.

Forget about any notions of buying now- and flipping it in a few years- if you see yourself needing different accommodation in a few years- either get it now- or don't tie yourself up in knots until you're in a position to do so.

The whole point of renting- used to be that you did not end up tied to a property long term- you could move about at will. This has been somewhat turned on its head by lack of availability- so people are tending to stay put for increasing lengths of time- but that is not what has historically happened.

Do you see yourself staying there long term- yea or nay?

beauf

They should be able to provide their accounts to any prospective buyer.. what do you think...?

airportgirl83

So would you buy right now or wait? Not in the hurry to buy but curious what people think.

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

... and it's for sale.... I wonder why... and who will buy it...

Can't see it being allowed to function in its current incarceration.
Something doesn't ring true- it just seems too sensational. Maybe I'm being too cynical- but I just don't see how it could be true.

beauf

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a former 3 bed council house in Walkinstown on Daft right now, that has been retrofitted to a tenement and is askking for €700,000. The ad claims an income of €72,000 p/a in rent.

Poor landlords.

... and it's for sale.... I wonder why... and who will buy it...

OwlsZat

Sheeps wrote: »

There's a former 3 bed council house in Walkinstown on Daft right now, that has been retrofitted to a tenement and is askking for €700,000. The ad claims an income of €72,000 p/a in rent.

Poor landlords.

There should be a landlords uncovered like the BBC rouge traders show for people who create and run these properties.

Sheeps

There's a former 3 bed council house in Walkinstown on Daft right now, that has been retrofitted to a tenement and is askking for €700,000. The ad claims an income of €72,000 p/a in rent.

Poor landlords.

beauf

Marcusm wrote: »

It’s not the supply or demand for the assets but the consequence of deleveraging in foreign markets. It is a systemic risk where there is a disconnect between the financing and asset situses.

I'm really only thinking locally. I'm not really aware of how international finance works....

Do you have a part example of it?

Marcusm

beauf wrote: »

Only if the rent or the property hold their value.
If either was to drop significantly then that would have a knock on effect.
Funds might try to cash out early, if there is better potential somewhere else.

But I think that unlikely to happen suddenly or in the short term. Because demand and supply isn't likely to radically change overnight.

It’s not the supply or demand for the assets but the consequence of deleveraging in foreign markets. It is a systemic risk where there is a disconnect between the financing and asset situses.

Marcusm

Graham wrote: »

According to your earlier post the stress in the REITs home markets is the risk.

Assuming no change in the Irish market in terms of rent-rolls, I can't see a major impact. Somebody would pick up the rent-rolls (maybe at a discount in a fast sale) and life here would go on.

Unless the underlying asset for the REITs stops producing the rent-rolls, overseas REITs liquidating their portfolios should have limited domestic impact.

A large scale exodus without replacement investors would have a significant impact on values. Those investors could not be replaced at scale in a shortened time period. That would have an impact on the domestic market. Since GFC, QE has led to a releveraging of investor markets. The eventual deleveraging, unless managed over a long period, will have a dramatic effect on asset values for less liquid assets.

beauf

Graham wrote: »

...Large scale build-to-let developments are unlikely to hit the market broken into individual units so another fund is likely to pick them up based on the value of the rent-roll rather than the underlying asset value.....

Only if the rent or the property hold their value.
If either was to drop significantly then that would have a knock on effect.
Funds might try to cash out early, if there is better potential somewhere else.

But I think that unlikely to happen suddenly or in the short term. Because demand and supply isn't likely to radically change overnight.

Graham

According to your earlier post the stress in the REITs home markets is the risk.

Assuming no change in the Irish market in terms of rent-rolls, I can't see a major impact. Somebody would pick up the rent-rolls (maybe at a discount in a fast sale) and life here would go on.

Unless the underlying asset for the REITs stops producing the rent-rolls, overseas REITs liquidating their portfolios should have limited domestic impact.