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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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OwlsZat

myshirt wrote: »

Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).

Your point is pointless. We took money before so we will do it again...

We have a record amount of savings in the country. We aren't short on money and the current sky high rent is being paid is to foreign accounts. We are sending rental profits overseas when there is no reason we can't invest Irish money in Ireland and pay the investors reasonable returns. However if you think a recession is inevitable and you'd rather burn foreign funds then fully understood.

OwlsZat

Amirani wrote: »

Do you believe that taxpayers should be funding developers' speculative investments or not?

You believe that building housing in a severe housing shortage is speculative? Again are you inferring a recession is inevitable?

Amirani

OwlsZat wrote: »

You believe that building housing in a severe housing shortage is speculative? Again are you inferring a recession is inevitable?

Developer-led property schemes are speculative, yes.

Yes, Ireland having another recession in future is inevitable.

skippy123!

Amirani wrote: »

Developer-led property schemes are speculative, yes.

Yes, Ireland having another recession in future is inevitable.

Realistically speaking - every market has it's up's and downs. That is just how it is. Now - other thing is how bad it will be.

Marcus Rashford

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

Sheeps

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

good

OwlsZat

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You're for the birds Marcus!

The_Conductor

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You sort of get an idea of the demographic the Indo were chasing for paper sales- when they coined that term.

Marcus Rashford

The_Conductor wrote: »

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You sort of get an idea of the demographic the Indo were chasing for paper sales- when they coined that term.

Yep...it’s a veritable aviary out there!

Assetbacked

David McWilliams' article in the IT today. While he has been banging this drum for a good while now, I haven't seen him so conclusive with his statements before. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-young-workers-feel-anxious-about-the-future-and-rightly-so-1.3871582?mode=amp

"The policy decision not to tax the primary source of wealth naturally encourages people to regard housing as a source of wealth that won’t be touched.

The obvious implication of this is that more and more capital goes into property, driving up its price, pushing up the cost of living for the heavily taxed workers, cutting their disposable income, making them feel anxious while on paper at least looking comfortable."

"Now look at how much is raised from property, the single biggest source of wealth in the country? A mere €500 million or 1 per cent of the tax take comes from property, despite the fact that we know that 87 per cent of the wealth of the country is tied up in houses, land or property.

These are the extraordinary facts about life in Ireland today. We insist on seeing accommodation as an asset, not a weekly cost. Therefore we have an inbuilt bias to push up its prices. This excludes young couples from the market, making them fretful and compelling them to push life’s milestones out further.

We know this, so you would imagine that we would tax property and land to rectify the problem. But we do precisely the opposite. We tax wages 40 times more heavily than property, implying that the average worker is penalised for working and effort, while the property owner is subsidised for doing nothing and watching prices rise."

Marcus Rashford

What about the fact that the person uses heavily taxed money to buy the property?

Assetbacked

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

What about the fact that the person uses heavily taxed money to buy the property?

I presume it's a disproportionate tax burden to the burden on the non-owning tax paying workers as property prices continue to rise which clearly offsets the tax paid on the money used to buy the property.

[Deleted User]

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

Totally!

The indo and the rest of the media cheered on the property boom right to the bitter end 10/15 years ago and were quite happy with thousands of ordinary Irish people becoming small time landlords. :pac:

My guess is that these funds are buying whole blocks so the builders & EAs dont need to take out the multi-page property advertisements that are needed to sell to the small timers.

My personal small time "conspiracy theory" is that some of the media are a bit pissed that they are no longer getting their cut of the action anymore.;)

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams' article in the IT today. While he has been banging this drum for a good while now,..... We tax wages 40 times more heavily than property, implying that the average worker is penalised for working and effort, while the property owner is subsidised for doing nothing and watching prices rise."

Its behind a paywall.

Where did the 40 times come from.

Maybe you'll explain where taxing something more heavily has made it cheaper to the "average worker".

What do you mean by the average worker in this instance.

I'm taxed heavily on income, I'm taxed heavily not on housing myself, but I am if I provide housing for someone else.

If you look at the privatisation of social and affordable housing across the world, it had generally gone hand in hand with change to housing as a commodity. It has also led to a shortage of this housing and a dramatic rise in housing costs.

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

I presume it's a disproportionate tax burden to the burden on the non-owning tax paying workers as property prices continue to rise which clearly offsets the tax paid on the money used to buy the property.

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

coolshannagh28

beauf wrote: »

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

This is the beauty of the Irish market for overseas big money , the govt is helping them control the market as agreed by Noonan and Geithner in 2011.

Assetbacked

beauf wrote: »

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

adam88

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

Fully agree with you but how do you propose this could happen. (I’m not being smart Incase it comes across that way)

coolshannagh28

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

...

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

That personal choice. Spend money on securing your housing. Or spend that money on something else.

You could negotiate a long term lease with punitive break clauses. You could also get more reasonable rent in less desirable locations. You could even move to another country to find a better work life balance.

beauf

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

Which European countries do not have problems with housing at the moment?

snotboogie

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

How do the MNCs cause a highly cyclical economy? If anything the MNCs based here were insulated from the Great Recession and kept things ticking over

coolshannagh28

snotboogie wrote: »

How do the MNCs cause a highly cyclical economy? If anything the MNCs based here were insulated from the Great Recession and kept things ticking over

I think Ireland suffered most in the past recession as outside investment dried up until the Govt cut a deal to get US money into the property market.

Sheeps

Christmas has come early for the NIMBYS of Glasnevin. Sure roads wont be able to handle this sky scraper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/nine-storey-tower-proposed-for-glasnevin-housing-estate-1.3872982

kippy

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I think Ireland suffered most in the past recession as outside investment dried up until the Govt cut a deal to get US money into the property market.

There were plenty major investments into the economy from 2008-2016 outside of into the property market.

[Deleted User]

kippy wrote: »

There were plenty major investments into the economy from 2008-2016 outside of into the property market.

I absolutely agree, the local house building industry got incinerated but most MNCs were not affected by this at all and many expanded.

(I'm an engineer in this line of work)

coolshannagh28

kippy wrote: »

There were plenty major investments into the economy from 2008-2016 outside of into the property market.

FDI in manufacturing did not pick up substantially until 2106 although there were investments , the trend is that FDI in property accelerated rapidly from 2012 and is now a large proportion of total FDI.

yagan

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

FDI in manufacturing did not pick up substantially until 2106 although there were investments , the trend is that FDI in property accelerated rapidly from 2012 and is now a large proportion of total FDI.

Do we have any clear numbers, percentages of new property affected by FDI?

There's a lot of talk but stuff that was only commissioned in 2015 is getting to the market now, and there years of pipeline in development. I won't be surprised if we end up with an apartment surplus in Dublin in three years time.

coolshannagh28

yagan wrote: »

Do we have any clear numbers, percentages of new property affected by FDI?

There's a lot of talk but stuff that was only commissioned in 2015 is getting to the market now, and there years of pipeline in development. I won't be surprised if we end up with an apartment surplus in Dublin in three years time.

David Mc Williams alluded to this today , outside interests now control a lot of property , the upside is that risk is offshore, the downside is that profits are offshore also and the market is being manipulated particularly against renters .

yagan

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

David Mc Williams alluded to this today , outside interests now control a lot of property , the upside is that risk is offshore, the downside is that profits are offshore also and the market is being manipulated particularly against renters .

I see that manipulation line used a lot but how?

From what I saw we had 5-6 years of pent up buyers in Dublin saving cash when rents were ok sitting on the sidelines and then rushing in after 2015.

Yet despite that I know people who sold out their bubble era Dublin property last year and just about break even (not counting the interest they paid!).

I've looked at a few areas around fun laoighaire and little is moving, there just seems to be lots for sale but not for rent. If the stuff on sale was for rent that would the end of the rental crisis.

But I get the feeling many of these empties are speculative punts that are way overpriced for what's shifting. I do wonder though if the price falls since November become established will we get an overall glut in all property types.

There's definitely multinational money sunk into the apartments on the docklands but are they even popular with Irish buyers and renters? Ive read a FT piece mistakenly say that the average rents there were the same for across the entire Dublin market, which in fairness they corrected when it was pointed out.

If the docks are FDI main focus well then there's two Dublin markets.