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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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[Deleted User]

kippy wrote: »

There were plenty major investments into the economy from 2008-2016 outside of into the property market.

I absolutely agree, the local house building industry got incinerated but most MNCs were not affected by this at all and many expanded.

(I'm an engineer in this line of work)

kippy

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

I think Ireland suffered most in the past recession as outside investment dried up until the Govt cut a deal to get US money into the property market.

There were plenty major investments into the economy from 2008-2016 outside of into the property market.

Sheeps

Christmas has come early for the NIMBYS of Glasnevin. Sure roads wont be able to handle this sky scraper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/nine-storey-tower-proposed-for-glasnevin-housing-estate-1.3872982

coolshannagh28

snotboogie wrote: »

How do the MNCs cause a highly cyclical economy? If anything the MNCs based here were insulated from the Great Recession and kept things ticking over

I think Ireland suffered most in the past recession as outside investment dried up until the Govt cut a deal to get US money into the property market.

snotboogie

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

How do the MNCs cause a highly cyclical economy? If anything the MNCs based here were insulated from the Great Recession and kept things ticking over

beauf

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

Which European countries do not have problems with housing at the moment?

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

...

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

That personal choice. Spend money on securing your housing. Or spend that money on something else.

You could negotiate a long term lease with punitive break clauses. You could also get more reasonable rent in less desirable locations. You could even move to another country to find a better work life balance.

coolshannagh28

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

This would be an ideal , but the steeply cyclical nature of our economy caused by our reliance on US MNC money does not allow this , unlike many other European countries .
The flip side of our economic miracle of the last 30 years is that decision making for Ireland is done in the US and the quid pro quo for our latest stimulus is another property extravaganza ,unsustainable rents and repatriated profits .

adam88

Assetbacked wrote: »

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

Fully agree with you but how do you propose this could happen. (I’m not being smart Incase it comes across that way)

Assetbacked

beauf wrote: »

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

Of course it doesn't always rise but it has shot up to unsustainable levels again. In general, it seems mad that people are encouraged to buy their home (rather than rent) via government policy but buy by borrowing hundreds of thousands of euro, indebting themselves and creating a permanent anxiety to work until retirement age paying it off. It should be possible to rent your home at a reasonable rent for a long period and have more disposable income to actually enjoy life which in turn diversifies the wealth throughout the economy.

coolshannagh28

beauf wrote: »

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

This is the beauty of the Irish market for overseas big money , the govt is helping them control the market as agreed by Noonan and Geithner in 2011.

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

I presume it's a disproportionate tax burden to the burden on the non-owning tax paying workers as property prices continue to rise which clearly offsets the tax paid on the money used to buy the property.

Property doesn't always rise.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/negative-equity-end-in-sight-for-homeowners-37944309.html

You're looking at it solely from the perspective of a market thats close to peak prices. Most people would be happy to wait for it to fall except that a shortage of housing and increasing population, has made rents so expensive.

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

David McWilliams' article in the IT today. While he has been banging this drum for a good while now,..... We tax wages 40 times more heavily than property, implying that the average worker is penalised for working and effort, while the property owner is subsidised for doing nothing and watching prices rise."

Its behind a paywall.

Where did the 40 times come from.

Maybe you'll explain where taxing something more heavily has made it cheaper to the "average worker".

What do you mean by the average worker in this instance.

I'm taxed heavily on income, I'm taxed heavily not on housing myself, but I am if I provide housing for someone else.

If you look at the privatisation of social and affordable housing across the world, it had generally gone hand in hand with change to housing as a commodity. It has also led to a shortage of this housing and a dramatic rise in housing costs.

[Deleted User]

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

Totally!

The indo and the rest of the media cheered on the property boom right to the bitter end 10/15 years ago and were quite happy with thousands of ordinary Irish people becoming small time landlords. :pac:

My guess is that these funds are buying whole blocks so the builders & EAs dont need to take out the multi-page property advertisements that are needed to sell to the small timers.

My personal small time "conspiracy theory" is that some of the media are a bit pissed that they are no longer getting their cut of the action anymore.;)

Assetbacked

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

What about the fact that the person uses heavily taxed money to buy the property?

I presume it's a disproportionate tax burden to the burden on the non-owning tax paying workers as property prices continue to rise which clearly offsets the tax paid on the money used to buy the property.

Marcus Rashford

What about the fact that the person uses heavily taxed money to buy the property?

Assetbacked

David McWilliams' article in the IT today. While he has been banging this drum for a good while now, I haven't seen him so conclusive with his statements before. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-young-workers-feel-anxious-about-the-future-and-rightly-so-1.3871582?mode=amp

"The policy decision not to tax the primary source of wealth naturally encourages people to regard housing as a source of wealth that won’t be touched.

The obvious implication of this is that more and more capital goes into property, driving up its price, pushing up the cost of living for the heavily taxed workers, cutting their disposable income, making them feel anxious while on paper at least looking comfortable."

"Now look at how much is raised from property, the single biggest source of wealth in the country? A mere €500 million or 1 per cent of the tax take comes from property, despite the fact that we know that 87 per cent of the wealth of the country is tied up in houses, land or property.

These are the extraordinary facts about life in Ireland today. We insist on seeing accommodation as an asset, not a weekly cost. Therefore we have an inbuilt bias to push up its prices. This excludes young couples from the market, making them fretful and compelling them to push life’s milestones out further.

We know this, so you would imagine that we would tax property and land to rectify the problem. But we do precisely the opposite. We tax wages 40 times more heavily than property, implying that the average worker is penalised for working and effort, while the property owner is subsidised for doing nothing and watching prices rise."

Marcus Rashford

The_Conductor wrote: »

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You sort of get an idea of the demographic the Indo were chasing for paper sales- when they coined that term.

Yep...it’s a veritable aviary out there!

The_Conductor

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You sort of get an idea of the demographic the Indo were chasing for paper sales- when they coined that term.

OwlsZat

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

You're for the birds Marcus!

Sheeps

Marcus Rashford wrote: »

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

good

Marcus Rashford

Calling them “cuckoo funds” is ridiculously inflammatory.

skippy123!

Amirani wrote: »

Developer-led property schemes are speculative, yes.

Yes, Ireland having another recession in future is inevitable.

Realistically speaking - every market has it's up's and downs. That is just how it is. Now - other thing is how bad it will be.

Amirani

OwlsZat wrote: »

You believe that building housing in a severe housing shortage is speculative? Again are you inferring a recession is inevitable?

Developer-led property schemes are speculative, yes.

Yes, Ireland having another recession in future is inevitable.

OwlsZat

Amirani wrote: »

Do you believe that taxpayers should be funding developers' speculative investments or not?

You believe that building housing in a severe housing shortage is speculative? Again are you inferring a recession is inevitable?

OwlsZat

myshirt wrote: »

Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).

Your point is pointless. We took money before so we will do it again...

We have a record amount of savings in the country. We aren't short on money and the current sky high rent is being paid is to foreign accounts. We are sending rental profits overseas when there is no reason we can't invest Irish money in Ireland and pay the investors reasonable returns. However if you think a recession is inevitable and you'd rather burn foreign funds then fully understood.

Amirani

OwlsZat wrote: »

If the money is being sought because a recession is inevitable then fine by me. Most on this thread believe there won't be a recession / repeat financial collapse. If there isn't they had better flip the tax laws so the state benefits or it forces them to sell. The idea of a generation of Irish paying rent though the nose to line the pockets of foreign pension funds gets my goat. The incumbent government has shown zero regard for the young employees in this country.

You haven't read this thread then.

You don't seem to have a coherent point here. Do you believe that taxpayers should be funding developers' speculative investments or not?

OwlsZat

Assetbacked wrote: »

I agree with this. I think we are well poised in the event of a global recession as the institutionals invested in the property market are the ones which will feel it and they consist of foreign money. This presumably was the stance taken considering the devastation caused by the crash.

If the money is being sought because a recession is inevitable then fine by me. Most on this thread believe there won't be a recession / repeat financial collapse. If there isn't they had better flip the tax laws so the state benefits or it forces them to sell. The idea of a generation of Irish paying rent though the nose to line the pockets of foreign pension funds gets my goat. The incumbent government has shown zero regard for the young employees in this country.

Assetbacked

myshirt wrote: »

Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).

I agree with this. I think we are well poised in the event of a global recession as the institutionals invested in the property market are the ones which will feel it and they consist of foreign money. This presumably was the stance taken considering the devastation caused by the crash.

myshirt

OwlsZat wrote: »

The idea that we had to bring them in to finance building apartments when the Government could have provided developers with the finance is daft beyond belief. I expect they will be forced to rollback on this stance eventually.

Do you want to expand on that? It's quite a bizarre comment. What are you on about and do you understand what you're saying?

How is shifting some risk to international money markets and away from the State Balance sheet daft beyond belief?

Separately, this whole country was built on other people's money, including the money of the Catholic Church at one point when we hadn't as much as a washer in our arse pocket. Other people's money has allowed the country to become what it is, and we are developing indigenous business off the back of it and quite a strong well educated labour force of young Irish people compared to their chancers of parents (baby boomers).