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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Jaster Rogue

beauf wrote: »

If you had a house, would you gamble on selling now and buy back in a couple of years at a lower price?

Personally I don't think we will see the drops of the Celtic tiger to make it as worthwhile as it was then. But I'm wondering how many would make this brave play at the moment.

Would be a foolish move imo anyway, might chance it with investment money but if anyone had that kind of market insight they would probably already be rich. With the moving costs involved, both financially and mentally/physically and the chance it could backfire you would want to be insane to chance something like that with the family home.

Bob24

beauf wrote: »

If you had a house, would you gamble on selling now and buy back in a couple of years at a lower price?

Personally I don't think we will see the drops of the Celtic tiger to make it as worthwhile as it was then. But I'm wondering how many would make this brave play at the moment.

If it is an investment property and you strongly feel there is money to be made, why not.

If it is the house where you are leaving, it would be both very risky and very troublesome and IMO not a good idea.

beauf

Investment I was thinking, but we seem a less confident that it's a falling market if the family home.

al87987

I work for a receiver so we regularly get sales proposals in for our properties.

Pretty much whatever the agent values the property at, our client will add 5-10% to the guiding price.

Property sits for a month, maybe 2 months and they eventually revise down to the original proposals value.

This wouldn't account for all the red arrows but a fair few of them definitely.

They also love avoiding the red arrow altogether so will take down for a few days and put it back up at the original AMV. Very frustrating

q85dw7osi4lebg

beauf wrote: »

If you had a house, would you gamble on selling now and buy back in a couple of years at a lower price?

Personally I don't think we will see the drops of the Celtic tiger to make it as worthwhile as it was then. But I'm wondering how many would make this brave play at the moment.

So pay rent in the meantime? Plus legal costs? Stone mad.

backspin.

Doodoo wrote: »

Just did a count there and of the 261 properties that changed their asking price so far in April, 53 rose in price (20%) with 208 having dropped in price (80%)

Tallies well with what I said about my location a month or so ago. Lots of red.

MrMojoRisin'

Anecdotally, to provide a counter point - I've been outbid on 2 properties in the last month, both going for 30k+ over asking price. In the Drimnagh/Inchicore area, asking prices were roughly ~ 300k.

whatever76

MrMojoRisin' wrote: »

Anecdotally, to provide a counter point - I've been outbid on 2 properties in the last month, both going for 30k+ over asking price. In the Drimnagh/Inchicore area, asking prices were roughly ~ 300k.

Purely down to my experience and based in cork - anything around 240 - 290k asking mark in either a prime location and in good nick will get into a bidding war and will nearly always go above the asking …if its not a do upper it can peak around 325k price . its the most competitive price point as majority of mortgages fall into this price bucket for FTB - this is where the CB are doing its job thankfully.

Jaster Rogue

More grim reading:

Soaring population to ramp up housing pressure in capital

The population of Dublin could rise by more than 150,000 in just three years, heaping further pressure on the housing market.

A hard Brexit combined with an economic shock could hugely add to the population pressures in Dublin, according to a new study.

Existing migration patterns are bringing 34,000 people a year to the State, many of them to Dublin, whose housing and transport infrastructure struggles to cope with the number of people already living there.

The CSO projects the population of the greater Dublin area will hit 2.2 million by 2031.

Full article:
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/soaring-population-to-ramp-up-housing-pressure-in-capital-37996296.html

Almost 27pc of households in the Dublin area are now in private sector rentals. It is the dominant form of housing for younger people, accounting for 60pc of the under-35 age group.

It would explain why all these international REITs are investing billions into the Irish property market despite all the talk of a supposed 'crash'. Is the future of Ireland home ownership as an exception rather than the rule?

MrWyatt

MrMojoRisin' wrote: »

Anecdotally, to provide a counter point - I've been outbid on 2 properties in the last month, both going for 30k+ over asking price. In the Drimnagh/Inchicore area, asking prices were roughly ~ 300k.

Anecdotally a couple of houses in Drimnagh that went for Auction a few days ago didn't sell and are up for auction again with a lower reserve:
https://bidx1.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ebb099402ed0f81ce00868575&id=a2703f73dc&e=da03c0177d
https://bidx1.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ebb099402ed0f81ce00868575&id=6dc077e2ed&e=da03c0177d

devlinio

My parents are looking to sell a house they rent out. They bought it for 360K in 2004, and are looking for 500K for it. The neighboring house sold 2 years ago for 435K. It's about 1/3 smaller. A house around the corner sold for 465 1 year ago. If they get 500K that covers the outstanding mortgages for the house they are selling, and the house we live in now.

I think they should hold it for another 15/20 years and sell it when they are about to retire. This will pay down the mortgages slowly, but they can keep more of the sale proceeds and will be better off financially. They have had 1 bad tenant, and it cost 4 months rent + repairs. But the pros have outweighed the cons so far.

Can anyone offer an opinion?

accensi0n

devlinio wrote: »

My parents are looking to sell a house they rent out. They bought it for 360K in 2004, and are looking for 500K for it. The neighboring house sold 2 years ago for 435K. It's about 1/3 smaller. A house around the corner sold for 465 1 year ago. If they get 500K that covers the outstanding mortgages for the house they are selling, and the house we live in now.

I think they should hold it for another 15/20 years and sell it when they are about to retire. This will pay down the mortgages slowly, but they can keep more of the sale proceeds and will be better off financially. They have had 1 bad tenant, and it cost 4 months rent + repairs. But the pros have outweighed the cons so far.

Can anyone offer an opinion?

The same cons that have occurred so far, may be more mentally impactful in the future.
May have also been very lucky so far and and it could be twice as bad over the next 20 years

beauf

In the short term paying off the mortgages will likely improve income now, considering the tax on rental income.

In the longer term keeping the houses will give them more income in the future and retain the investment.

But will they have their health and mobility to enjoy it then. Also if they need fair deal, or pass it on in inheritance. These will decimate the value of the investments.

Maybe more income now and passed around as cash free gifts under whats allowed might be better.

Some might say putting the money in a pension is the most efficient.

Bluefoam

devlinio wrote: »

My parents are looking to sell a house they rent out. They bought it for 360K in 2004, and are looking for 500K for it. The neighboring house sold 2 years ago for 435K. It's about 1/3 smaller. A house around the corner sold for 465 1 year ago. If they get 500K that covers the outstanding mortgages for the house they are selling, and the house we live in now.

I think they should hold it for another 15/20 years and sell it when they are about to retire. This will pay down the mortgages slowly, but they can keep more of the sale proceeds and will be better off financially. They have had 1 bad tenant, and it cost 4 months rent + repairs. But the pros have outweighed the cons so far.

Can anyone offer an opinion?

I'd also consider the cost of maintenance over the coming years... New boiler, bringing the building up to modern standards, possible damp in the future, new roof... Owning a house for rental is a business and it's probable that standards for rental property will be increased over the years ahead.

beauf

You put aside about 25% of gross income as a float for repairs and such.

More of an issue is if they change the rules so LL can't sell if they need to. Which they are muttering about at the moment.

The_Conductor

I'd be seriously concerned about an inability to sell in the future- which does seem to be road they are going down.

devlinio

Just to note about my post.

I don't want my parents to sell now just to pay inheritance. I want them to enjoy their money, and not be worrying about leaving it behind. I just want them to be financially secure down the line.

The_Conductor

devlinio wrote: »

Just to note about my post.

I don't want my parents to sell now just to pay inheritance. I want them to enjoy their money, and not be worrying about leaving it behind. I just want them to be financially secure down the line.

There is no guarantee of financial security letting residential property- all it takes is a tenant to decide to game the system- and you could potentially have no income whatsoever for 2+ years alongside vindictive damage to repair.

The current regulatory regime is nuts.

beauf

It's more to be aware that the govt wants to attack pensions, passive income, and any assets come fair deal or inheritance or cgt. Also to rise the expense of health services.

It makes planning for retirement problematic.

Maybe they should sell and buy two smaller units that could return more passive income.

The_Conductor

+1 to beauf's suggestion.
Putting all your eggs in the one basket- given current conditions- is incredibly optimistic on the part of people.
I fully accept the Irish preoccupation with having a property to supplement their pension- but honestly- those days are gone.
Its hard to make a viable investment suggestion to people who are looking at planning for their pensions and life after working- our asset classes are all doing wild things.
I seriously suggest paying a visit to an independent financial advisor- whatever they charge, it may be worth its weight in gold. Life is too short to suffer deprivation in your twilight years.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I think the landlord risk is much overstated on these boards. Yes there is risk but it's not like 9/10 tenants will cease payment.

The_Conductor

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think the landlord risk is much overstated on these boards. Yes there is risk but it's not like 9/10 tenants will cease payment.

True- however, over the longer term- the likelihood of encountering one increases exponentially.

The bigger risk is that you can't sell a rental property- or you must sell it with a sitting tenant- which could, realistically, reduce its value significantly (I'm not going to suggest by a particular percentage- as I'd only be pulling figures out of thin air).

The regulatory regime is not going to become more favourable to landlords- and God only knows how its going to migrate in favour of tenants. Its a dangerous regulatory regime in which to operate.

beauf

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think the landlord risk is much overstated on these boards. Yes there is risk but it's not like 9/10 tenants will cease payment.

True. You have to work out the return of investment from purchase to when you sell it, and all the tax and interest.

Then compare that to a pension or some other investment over the same time frame.

JJJackal

beauf wrote: »

True. You have to work out the return of investment from purchase to when you sell it, and all the tax and interest.

Then compare that to a pension or some other investment over the same time frame.

One advantage of an investment property is you have control of it - even with current legislation

voluntary

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I think the landlord risk is much overstated on these boards. Yes there is risk but it's not like 9/10 tenants will cease payment.

By definition risk is a combination of Probability and Severity.

Probability may not be that huge, but the severity on occurrence can cause a critical damage. Landlords would surely prefer to take even a higher probability of bad tenants if the severity wasn't so bad. Bad tenants happen, it's the State's role to regulate to protect the victim here. Landlord is the victim in such cases.

beauf

JJJackal wrote: »

One advantage of an investment property is you have control of it - even with current legislation

Partial control anyway...

jimbobaloobob

Is rental property better to hold in a trust so than to pass it on in a will? In terms of taxes on inheriting and annual returns?

JohnCleary

All this nonsense about non paying tenants.... I had various tenants over 5 years and not a single non payment

beaz2018

I see a property (Glasnevin) on the price register this week that was for sale in late 2017 but was taken down and put up again in late 2018. It has sold for far less than the bidding was at in 2017. Im sure they regret not selling it then as it clearly was the peak of this current boom.

beauf

JohnCleary wrote: »

All this nonsense about non paying tenants.... I had various tenants over 5 years and not a single non payment

The flat earthers are over there --->

https://www.thejournal.ie/rtb-annual-report-4124661-Jul2018/