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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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zreba

The CB criteria are the MAX banks can lend. These amounts are not given. Banks are restricted by these criteria but can tighten them as they wish. They can and will stop lending if they they're balance sheets get bad. The balance sheets can turn south for two reasons: equity drops or lending increases or both. In case of large equity drop (like in recession) and no capital injection banks simply can't lend any more. If they do then they fail/bankrupt. Governments and central banks will do anything to keep the ship afloat, but this doesn't mean the lending will continue as usual. Only the best and lowest risk loans will be given. In good times banks can overlook many issues, maybe your too high spending on Amazon in January etc. In bad times they will only pick the best. Plus, if banks think the asset prices can depreciate further then they will not lend much.

PokeHerKing

Mod Note

Please quote correctly. Do not Attribute posts from another poster onto another poster (mid-quote).

Bluefoam

You have misquoted me. That's why it's confusing

zreba

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I know you don't want to hear this but yes. All things being equal, permanent employment and proof of saving the deposit you can get 3.5 times your salary and buy a home.

I could do this in late 2012 also. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here lads/lassies.

Do you have any understanding how lending works and how much banks can lend and what criteria they need to meet to be able to lend? This is like discussing a quantum physics with a primary school student. Please do your homework first and then we can maybe discuss. No offence. I've enough and again, will try not to engage with you further.

Graham

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I could do this in late 2012 also. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here lads/lassies.

You must be special.

Here's some snippets from the period you reckon lending criteria was the same as now:

Independent Sept 2012
the only banks lending to first-time buyers are Bank of Ireland and its subsidiary ICS, and AIB.

KBC Bank is doing some lending, but Permanent TSB, EBS and its subsidiary Haven, National Irish Bank and Ulster Bank are all shut for first-time buyer lending, he said.

Independent May 2013
The stringent new criteria being used by banks to process mortgage applications is revealed in today’s Irish Independent.

The personal finances of potential buyers are now being scrutinised in meticulous detail in a way not seen before, with far more rigorous criteria being applied in recent months.

November '14
Homebuyers aged over 40 are being denied mortgages because they are too old, according to a new report.

May '14
IT should have been an open-and-shut mortgage application for a well-off, single doctor with no major personal debt looking to trade up from a city-centre apartment to a three-bed semi in a middle-class enclave in Dublin.

it is now slightly less difficult to get a mortgage than, say, a year ago, and figures for mortgage draw-downs in the first quarter of this year reflect that reality.

PokeHerKing

zreba wrote:

Do you have any understanding how lending works and how much banks can lend and what criteria they need to meet to be able to lend? This is like discussing a quantum physics with a primary school student. Please do your homework first and then we can maybe discuss. No offence. I've enough and again, will try not to engage with you further.

If I'm honest most of your posts are pontificating waffle with next to zero facts or any real life examples. Cop and pasting the investopedia definition of lending over and over again is not ground breaking.

Your simple inability to grasp anything outside of that copy and paste definition shows that you're far from a quantum physicist.

coolshannagh28

zreba wrote: »

Ireland has an open economy, vulnerable to external shocks much more than any other European country. The Irish economy is highly cyclical, which means the bull runs are strong, but also the bearish movement are significant. Expecting a full throttle bull run and no significant reversal to follow is naive. Look for the future, but learn from the past.

Ireland is pretty closely aligned to the US economically , the US economy is strong at present on the back of low rates and QE however there are some jitters at present and the danger that this could lead to a crash in which event there are no tools to fight it with , we could have a deep recession .
Interestingly if the activity levels on this thread are an indicator then something is stirring .

zreba

Graham wrote: »

You must be special.

Here's some snippets from the period you reckon lending criteria was the same as now:

Independent Sept 2012
the only banks lending to first-time buyers are Bank of Ireland and its subsidiary ICS, and AIB.

KBC Bank is doing some lending, but Permanent TSB, EBS and its subsidiary Haven, National Irish Bank and Ulster Bank are all shut for first-time buyer lending, he said.

Independent May 2013
The stringent new criteria being used by banks to process mortgage applications is revealed in today’s Irish Independent.

The personal finances of potential buyers are now being scrutinised in meticulous detail in a way not seen before, with far more rigorous criteria being applied in recent months.

November '14
Homebuyers aged over 40 are being denied mortgages because they are too old, according to a new report.

May '14
IT should have been an open-and-shut mortgage application for a well-off, single doctor with no major personal debt looking to trade up from a city-centre apartment to a three-bed semi in a middle-class enclave in Dublin.

it is now slightly less difficult to get a mortgage than, say, a year ago, and figures for mortgage draw-downs in the first quarter of this year reflect that reality.

And this all despite the €64 billion bailout.

PokeHerKing

Graham wrote:

You must be special.

Me and and a few close friends and a few colleagues and their close friends.

Obviously a special bunch for sure...

I didn't get quoted in the independent tho, a bastion of journalism.

Graham

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Me and and a few close friends and a few colleagues and their close friends.

Didn't you buy in 2014, after the crash?

PokeHerKing

Graham wrote:

Didn't you buy in 2014, after the crash?

We went sale agreed in Nov 2013 but the sale was through nama, we didn't get the keys till the summer of 2014.

shenanagans

Graham wrote: »

Didn't you buy in 2014, after the crash?

I had no problem whatsoever getting a mortgage in 2011. In the pit of the recession. However I know people who couldnt get the funds they wanted mostly because they had debt already... Not ftbs.

Let it be a lesson to any FTB. Keep a clean credit record, save and the banks can't refuse a reasonable mortgage...even in recession.

The points being made are very valid.... Banks used any excuse not to give mortgages so it really in your own hands to keep your records clean if you are planning on buying.

theboringfox

Anyone buying in Cork City or watching market. Seems to be very little supply of quality available in the 400 to 500k range. Had heard market was gone soft there in 2018. Wonder are people slow to sell up because of same and maybe buyers being put off by risk to economy of no deal Brexit. Just curious.

voluntary

What would be the best headline in the light of 3 months in a row house price drops?

Independent.ie gets the 1st prize

"Report shows house prices increased in every market during the first three months of this year"

Are they for real? What's happening to our mainstream media? Why do they manipulate so much?

The_Conductor

voluntary wrote: »

What would be the best headline in the light of 3 months in a row house price drops?

Independent.ie gets the 1st prize

"Report shows house prices increased in every market during the first three months of this year"

Are they for real? What's happening to our mainstream media? Why do they manipulate so much?

In a lot of cases they own property websites or have a vested interest in them- so they spin, spin and spin- for all its worth.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Here’s the report.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/house-prices-in-ireland-continue-to-increase-new-figures-reveal-37967559.html

No mention at all of dublin prices stagnating.

shenanagans

voluntary wrote: »

What would be the best headline in the light of 3 months in a row house price drops?

Independent.ie gets the 1st prize

"Report shows house prices increased in every market during the first three months of this year"

Are they for real? What's happening to our mainstream media? Why do they manipulate so much?

House prices in Ireland continue to increase, new figures reveal

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/house-prices-in-ireland-continue-to-increase-new-figures-reveal-37967559.html

whatever76

theboringfox wrote: »

Anyone buying in Cork City or watching market. Seems to be very little supply of quality available in the 400 to 500k range. Had heard market was gone soft there in 2018. Wonder are people slow to sell up because of same and maybe buyers being put off by risk to economy of no deal Brexit. Just curious.

agree its a minefield in the city - single buyer been looking for over year and things just not working out - very demoralising I am in the 300 - 320k bracket) , I am surprised 400k bracket is in same way ( my search not stretching that far for my own sanity !) . Supply is very poor - don't think its Brexit i think people are happy and just staying put or houses are staying within the family's - just my opinion .. no data

beauf

The_Conductor wrote: »

In a lot of cases they own property websites or have a vested interest in them- so they spin, spin and spin- for all its worth.

Maybe. But the media do the same with other stories. Make them up, or do no research. Some are cut and past from websites and forums. Basically you can't believe a lot of the stuff in the media. I've seen them publish a correct story. Only to replace it with a different one a few days later with obvious bias

beauf

whatever76 wrote: »

...Supply is very poor - don't think its Brexit i think people are happy and just staying put or houses are staying within the family's - just my opinion .. no data

Supply has been poor non existent for 10 yrs or more now. Demand still increasing. Nothing new has changed that.

Rothmans

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Here’s the report.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/house-prices-in-ireland-continue-to-increase-new-figures-reveal-37967559.html

No mention at all of dublin prices stagnating.

In fairness, all the stories about prices reducing, properties sitting on the market in Dublin on here have been anecdotal, whereas the daft report is based on empirical evidence.

At least it highlights that supply has increased in Dublin by 40 % since this time last year, which is very good to hear. This, in addition to the CBI's borrowing limits, bodes well for buyers going forward, and it helps explain why prices in Dublin are increasing at a much slower pace. The Dublin market is surely approaching equilibrium.

beauf

beauf wrote: »

Supply has been poor non existent for 10 yrs or more now. Demand still increasing. Nothing new has changed that.

I should add that there are signs that some supply is coming on stream now. We are seeing more building of residential property all over now. This is why the rate of increase is softening.

If there is a choice of a new build or a older property the new property will likely be better value. Being of higher standard and energy efficiency. So the prices of older houses will be effected. Older houses though are often in better location, and have bigger gardens for the same money. At least some choice will come into the market.

Pussyhands

We will see a rise in house prices again in the next months.

GGTrek

The actual daft report is here:
https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q1-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

Very few price drops.

I have been on the market (selling) small apartments in North Central Nublin since Jan this year and things are going faster than in Jan-Feb now. Still the banks or the conveyancing solicitors are very slow (Irish style, because they get the money anyway). Whenever I hear in this forum that a conveyancing process can be completed in 3 weeks, I just laugh (never been less than 2-3 months in my extensive experience).

Bob24

GGTrek wrote: »

Still the banks or the conveyancing solicitors are very slow (Irish style, because they get the money anyway). Whenever I hear in this forum that a conveyancing process can be completed in 3 weeks, I just laugh (never been less than 2-3 months in my extensive experience).

Assuming both the buyer and seller are clean about the sale and there is no legal surprise, if there is no mortgage involved, if both solicitors are efficient, and nothing bad comes out from the survey ... I say 3 weeks is possible. A friend of mine who was a cash buyer did actually complete a purchase in less than a month. But this is obviously the best case scenario not the most likely.

[Deleted User]

GGTrek wrote: »

The actual daft report is here:
https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q1-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

Very few price drops.

I have been on the market (selling) small apartments in North Central Nublin since Jan this year and things are going faster than in Jan-Feb now. Still the banks or the conveyancing solicitors are very slow (Irish style, because they get the money anyway). Whenever I hear in this forum that a conveyancing process can be completed in 3 weeks, I just laugh (never been less than 2-3 months in my extensive experience).

Had a friend go from sale agreed to getting the keys in 5 weeks but that seems to be the absolute exception rather than norm, haven't heard of any other cases like that. Other friends have taken 6 months.

The_Conductor

Pussyhands wrote: »

We will see a rise in house prices again in the next months.

Construction inflation = 5%
Any absolute price rise less than 5% = fall in real terms

Falls in Dublin are being led by the secondhand market- if/when the Minister amends the Residential Tenancies Act (again)- there is a strong possibility of several thousand units hitting the market, esp. in the greater Dublin area- in the short to medium term.

People don't get it- the meddling has consequences- and worsening consequences, the more the Minister meddles.

Eric Cartman

The_Conductor wrote: »

Construction inflation = 5%
Any absolute price rise less than 5% = fall in real terms

Falls in Dublin are being led by the secondhand market- if/when the Minister amends the Residential Tenancies Act (again)- there is a strong possibility of several thousand units hitting the market, esp. in the greater Dublin area- in the short to medium term.

People don't get it- the meddling has consequences- and worsening consequences, the more the Minister meddles.

When you have the same housing minister who ruined the small landlord market saying 'we need more landlords' thats a special kind of reality detachment.

beauf

...and has outsourced the majority of social housing to those same LL's.

Talk about sawing the branch you are standing on...

The_Conductor

beauf wrote: »

...and has outsourced the majority of social housing to those same LL's.

Talk about sawing the branch you are standing on...

Its a matter of time before the REITs will be gently informed they have to supply X amount of social housing- and they'll tell the Minister to take a hike- and it'll end up in court. The absolute number of properties to let- is falling- as the new units coming onstream by the REITs and other large landlords- are insufficient to offset those exiting the sector.

Your analogy about sawing the branch you're standing on- is very very apt.