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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Pussyhands

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Given I work with them I wouldn't be stupid enough to give away such specifics. Leinster.

So no proof then.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Pussyhands wrote: »

So no proof then.

Sure I'll just PM you their number so :pac:

Really don't care if you believe / don't believe what I (an internet stranger) say..

Diarmuid

alwald wrote: »

This government is turning the blind eye to the housing crisis and they don't seem to know what they are doing or what strategy will work best.

The government may be turning a blind eye but the general public are actively deepening the crisis. The sooner we accept that we have the screwed up property market (whether shortage of supply or high interest rates), is because that's the way the Irish want it.

The residents hired a planner, a barrister and a photographer to help them oppose the development; one resident said they would “go to the bitter end” to halt Cairn’s plans should planning permission be granted.

Fol20

Diarmuid wrote: »

The government may be turning a blind eye but the general public are actively deepening the crisis. The sooner we accept that we have the screwed up property market (whether shortage of supply or high interest rates), is because that's the way the Irish want it.

To be fair. I think you would be annoyed if you lived there as well. If its a development where everything was already granted and you were expecting houses even if not efficient with land and its changed in such a fashion most would be annoyed. If it was just normal green zoned land with nothing planned, i would expect apartments

cruizer101

Might be annoyed but should accept if you live that close to city centre there is a good chance of apartments being built.

Fol20

cruizer101 wrote: »

Might be annoyed but should accept if you live that close to city centre there is a good chance of apartments being built.

If its a new development where they advertised in phases and they were not there from offset, i would be fighting this also. I dont know enough about the development however if the planned to build 400houses in a plot of land and thats what was advertised when you bought in and this changed. It would be unfair. If it was advertised as 200 houses with a connecting plot of land that had a blank slate with nothing planned yet,then all they can should expect is apartments.

Zenify

machalla wrote: »

According to this mortgage approvals both fell and rose within a month of each other compared to last year. Is that indicative of anything other than seasonal factors?

"The volume of mortgage approvals fell in January compared with a year earlier, according to Banking & Payments Federation Ireland, though figures released Thursday showed a recovery, rising 7 percent in February. "

They edited the article, it was first published with mortgage approvals down 3.4%(I think that was the percent) compared to last year. They didn't say they went back up. I wonder if that was a vested interest making them edit the article?

Bluefoam

This morning we're told there's a 1.5% drop in value (for semi D's in Dublin) and people assume the market is going to crash & this afternoon they say that mortgage approvals are up in February by over 7%... My guess is that it's difficult for buyers to get their hands on the finance they want and it's taking longer to get approvals and complete sales... I am amazed by the sheer amount of poor quality second hand property on the market at the moment. I'm guessing allot of sellers are waiting for Brexit to settle down and in the meantime allot of the poorer quality rentals are being put up for sale...

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/firsttime-buyer-activity-brings-bounce-to-mortgage-approvals-37959523.html

JohnCleary

JohnCleary wrote: »

Recently viewed a property in Galway City. Great location, main downside is on-street parking and the house is directly on a public footpath (quiet street but busy foot traffic)

1000 sq ft, 3 bed, BER F

AMV 295k

Went into the house and instantly the auctioneer (we'd met before from other viewings) stated that due to interest, AMV is now 345k.

I take a look around... all the walls plastered and damp around the windows (I pushed my finger through one piece beside the window). When bought during the boom (2 owners ago, according to folio), the guy obviously had plans to develop... built a 'shed' out the back with power with obvious notions to turn into a studio.... no planning (but it's been there 12 years, so not sure what the story is now) - either way, it's just a shell. To provide power, mains line running over the kitchen cubbords, through the wall and out the garden... lovely.

'Refurbished' in haste to get a rental in there, I assume.... terribly done. All old doors etc. painted by, I can only guess, Stevie Wonder. Laminate flooring not even finished off properly. Central heating pipes above ground.

345k? I wish them the best of luck!

JohnCleary wrote: »

The Galway City house in question was purchased in 2015 for €180k - nice flip if they can double in 4 years.

I can't complain, I benefited from the last recession, but this shows that Galway is gone bonkers.

I'm glad I have a place to live in (although we are looking to purchase, not just going to viewings for the craic).

Just as an update, this went for a whopping 455k today. I was utterly shocked that it met AMV of 345k, never mind go up to 455k.

Galway is NUTS.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Was bidding on an investment property in the NE past two weeks, advertised at €170,000, I pulled out today at €220,000. Asking prices are just a guide to get the ball rolling.

Bluefoam

A more comprehensive analysis of the house price figures:

https://www.thejournal.ie/average-asking-prices-ireland-2019-4565236-Mar2019/

Anyone at the lower end of the market looking to capitalise on a possible downturn look out of luck... Lower end is rising at a faster rate even though high end properties are skewing the statistics.

zreba

The news about Dublin house prices falling are going viral.

Dublin Home Prices Are Falling Again. Decade After Crash, Dublin Home Price Drop Painful Reminder - Bloomberg

Bluefoam

zreba wrote: »

The news about Dublin house prices falling are going viral.

Dublin Home Prices Are Falling Again. Decade After Crash, Dublin Home Price Drop Painful Reminder - Bloomberg

EVERYONE PANIC!!!

optogirl

Bluefoam wrote: »

A more comprehensive analysis of the house price figures:

https://www.thejournal.ie/average-asking-prices-ireland-2019-4565236-Mar2019/

Anyone at the lower end of the market looking to capitalise on a possible downturn look out of luck... Lower end is rising at a faster rate even though high end properties are skewing the statistics.

This has put me in a bad mood. Feel so trapped renting and with the axe hovering over us all the time. Will the landlord sell?? Will a relative need the house? It's scary.

Rew

Bluefoam wrote: »

A more comprehensive analysis of the house price figures:

https://www.thejournal.ie/average-asking-prices-ireland-2019-4565236-Mar2019/

Anyone at the lower end of the market looking to capitalise on a possible downturn look out of luck... Lower end is rising at a faster rate even though high end properties are skewing the statistics.

Its analysis of asking prices, keep that in mind.

zreba

Bluefoam wrote: »

EVERYONE PANIC!!!

Not yet. It's only one quarter for now. Let's see how this plays out. The CSO report for March will be something to pay a close attention too.

Bluefoam

zreba wrote: »

Not yet. It's only one quarter for now. Let's see how this plays out. The CSO report for March will be something to pay a close attention too.

I was being facetious

biggebruv

Prices are ridiculous around north Dublin how much will they drop by anyways if they do and when?

Pussyhands

I'm fairly content right now. Have seen ads on facebook recently with price drops yet they must have deleted the ad on daft and put up a new one to stop the price drop showing.

This house was up for 299,950 and has now been dropped to 274,950.

Link showing latest price

Of course that doesn't mean selling price but if demand was sooooo strong they wouldn't be dropping 25k.

I'm also seeing houses that were previously advertised that have been removed now, yet when I check the property price register I see nothing. This is going back 4 or 5 months.

awec

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm fairly content right now. Have seen ads on facebook recently with price drops yet they must have deleted the ad on daft and put up a new one to stop the price drop showing.

This house was up for 299,950 and has now been dropped to 274,950.

Link showing latest price

Of course that doesn't mean selling price but if demand was sooooo strong they wouldn't be dropping 25k.

I'm also seeing houses that were previously advertised that have been removed now, yet when I check the property price register I see nothing. This is going back 4 or 5 months.

For the benefit of the rest of us, what is your message here? That this is proof of a housing collapse?

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm also seeing houses that were previously advertised that have been removed now, yet when I check the property price register I see nothing. This is going back 4 or 5 months.

One of those was me... I was purchasing a house, discovered a boundary issue and had to pull out of the sale. That house is now off the market until the legal issue is sorted.

I apologise, it seems the price collapse is all my fault.

q85dw7osi4lebg

First viewing of a 1 bed cottage in Meath this morning, asking price 325k, 325k was offered on the spot. No collapse any year soon.

JJJackal

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm fairly content right now. Have seen ads on facebook recently with price drops yet they must have deleted the ad on daft and put up a new one to stop the price drop showing.

This house was up for 299,950 and has now been dropped to 274,950.

Link showing latest price

Of course that doesn't mean selling price but if demand was sooooo strong they wouldn't be dropping 25k.

I'm also seeing houses that were previously advertised that have been removed now, yet when I check the property price register I see nothing. This is going back 4 or 5 months.

Its still not cheap imo - the question daft cant really answer re this property is:

A) is there any offers right now?

what will it sell for?

Perhaps this asking was already unrealistic. Price drops re asking prices generate interest I think

shenanagans

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm fairly content right now. Have seen ads on facebook recently with price drops yet they must have deleted the ad on daft and put up a new one to stop the price drop showing.

This house was up for 299,950 and has now been dropped to 274,950.

Link showing latest price

Of course that doesn't mean selling price but if demand was sooooo strong they wouldn't be dropping 25k.

I'm also seeing houses that were previously advertised that have been removed now, yet when I check the property price register I see nothing. This is going back 4 or 5 months.

On that link there's a 4 bed a few doors up for 299 k. Of course they dropped the price of this 3 bed.

3 bed always worth less! Same estate, same address. Most people would buy 4 bed if they're the same price.

Pussyhands

biggebruv wrote: »

Prices are ridiculous around north Dublin how much will they drop by anyways if they do and when?

When the recession comes there will be a considerable drop. The amount of foreigners in Dublin especially is insane. When the recession hits they will leave and we won't have as many coming as the part time jobs won't be there.

Below is a chart of an asset bubble. I'm not saying we're in a bubble but we are hearing talk of "rates of growth look like returning to normal" and we have seen prices drop for the last few months although it's very miniscule.

We are back to property porn in papers. I have a lad urging me to buy because prices are only going to go up he says. US GDP was revised down sharply last quarter. Trump will do all he can to have a strong economy going into 2020 and then all bets are off!

Toronto-Real-Estate-Prices-Literally-Look-Like-The-Textbook-Chart-For-Asset-Bubble-Chart.png

Toronto-Real-Estate-Prices-Literally-Look-Like-The-Textbook-Chart-For-Asset-Bubble-Chart.png

kippy

I am not sure where people are seeing an overall "Drop" in house prices.

Rents are still increasing (from what I can see).

The asking prices are just advertising. I've seen where auctioneers advise sellers to set the asking price below a certain value specifically to get more interest in the property.
For example.
Auctioneer Values Property for seller. Advises seller they think the house is worth 210K.
Advises seller to set the AMV at 199K.
Why?
Because there are plenty searches and alerts setup on daft that use "under 200K" as the filter/alert. Setting the price low gets any of this type of viewer alerted and maybe increases viewings/offers

That's just one reason - to gain interest. Once you have more than one potential buyer interested, bidding takes over and that 210K can quickly become 220/230 or whatever.

This happens at every level.

Ultimately the sale price is the indicator.

Houses get taken off the market all the time as well for numerous reasons.

Pussyhands

awec wrote: »

For the benefit of the rest of us, what is your message here? That this is proof of a housing collapse?

Why does there need to be a message? I'm simply detailing my experience of what I've seen.

Why are you so defensive?

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

we have seen prices drop for the last few months although it's very miniscule.

Where are you seeing prices drop over the last few months?

There was a 1.5% drop in semidetached houses in dublin city & south county over a two month period only... The rest of the country grew by 7%, smaller houses in South Dublin grew by more than that...

cruizer101

kippy wrote: »

I am not sure where people are seeing an overall "Drop" in house prices.

CSO figures on residential property sales
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

It shows drop over past few months for Dublin.
That said a single figure doesn't tell all, it could be a case expensive houses have dropped off but average house are still increasing.

Bluefoam

cruizer101 wrote: »

CSO figures on residential property sales
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2019/

It shows drop over past few months for Dublin.
That said a single figure doesn't tell all, it could be a case expensive houses have dropped off but average house are still increasing.

I genuinely don't see the same thing you see...

In Dublin, residential property prices rose by 1.9% in the year to January with house prices rising by 2.3% and apartments by 1.6%. The highest house price growth in Dublin was in South Dublin at 4.0%, while the lowest growth was in Fingal at 2.6%.