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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

An interesting question is has the HTB scheme been a success?

I would think it probably has, given the rising number of new builds out there. This probably would have happened anyway, but HTB probably kickstarted this a bit.

At some point, probably in the very near future, there'll have to be a decision made on whether or not it's still required.

Its gotten construction up to 20k+ units per annum- from virtually nothing.
However- these tend to be in commuterville rather than where people would actually like to live- with vast constructions of low density urban sprawl (and no commensurate investment in services, facilities and amenities for the areas in question).

We need large numbers of apartments in the centres of our cities- 1 and 2 bed apartments- highrise, high density- and highly spec'ed units (we're not trying to make new ghettoes after all). Lots of people would be only too happy to consider good, well build, highly spec'ed apartments in city centres- rather than having to face a 2-3 hour commute- yet, we're not giving them this option.

We need to cop the hell on, get over our hangups about high rise- and build where people need to live. Low density urban sprawl should be the exception- not the norm.

The_Conductor

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Fairer in what manner? Helping out those already on the property ladder to buy a bigger or newer house? Thus increasing the pool of new build purchasers & ultimately prices of same? Most of whom probably already profited from other incentives like 0 stamp duty, SSIA's etc.

If it was genuinely to help first time buyers- rather than to provide a sop to developers- it shouldn't matter whether a property is new- or not.

Its a sop of developers, plain and simple- but the manner in which its structured- means its far cheaper for a FTB to buy a new unit- than it is to buy a unit in a more mature area- so there is a disincentive to look at secondhand property. Meanwhile a non-FTB, who is not affected by this ridiculous scheme- gets their choice of the secondhand market- with a clearrun- given the lack of FTB's who are going to buy........

The scheme has resulted in a new stratification- with younger FTBs in new estates in West Dublin/North Kildare- and older non-FTBs in more mature areas.

awec

Pheonix10 wrote: »

The HTB scheme is for new builds, not 2nd hand...

Yes, but the majority of houses being bought by first time buyers are likely to be 3 bed semi-Ds, which is going to reduce demand for 3 bed semi-Ds in the second hand market.

[Deleted User]

Pheonix10 wrote: »

The HTB scheme is for new builds, not 2nd hand...

I assume the point being made is HTB made new builds more attractive which suppressed demand for similar second hand homes, hence their prices leveling off.

Bob24

cruizer101 wrote: »

I said if there is an incentive scheme for first time buyers it should apply equally no matter what house you are buying.

It was never mean to be an incentive for all FTBs though. It was meant as a way to increase developer margins for new starter homes sold to FTBs so that developers build more of these.

Whether it was a good idea is debatable, but it would be wrong to think it was ever meant to be an incentive for FTBs to buy more. It was always an incentive for developers to build more, knowing well that any euro given as a grant to FTBs would end up into a developers pocket as the market was very constrained and adding more money into it would simply rise prices - and thus developers profits.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

awec wrote: »

2nd hand semi D will be the first class of house to see prices level off, since it's the section of the market most directly impacted by help to buy (and in some areas of the country it's the only section of the market impacted by it).

The HTB scheme is for new builds, not 2nd hand...

Mickiemcfist

The_Conductor wrote: »

If, as is apparent, the whole intent of the FTB 'grant' was to provide a sop to developers- a far fairer manner of doing so- would have been to reform VAT on new builds- or address development levies etc- rather than playing with smoke and mirrors in the manner in which has been done.

Fairer in what manner? Helping out those already on the property ladder to buy a bigger or newer house? Thus increasing the pool of new build purchasers & ultimately prices of same? Most of whom probably already profited from other incentives like 0 stamp duty, SSIA's etc.

cruizer101

awec wrote: »

How can it apply equally if it's not available for second hand homes?

I imagine the reason it was done via the incentive was it is nicer politics. Announcements of tax breaks for developers would have been attacked by all the usual suspects. Ultimately though the end result is the same.

What I mean is if there was to be money given to FTB it shouldn't have been what was implemented, it should have been something else e.g. mortgage interest relief or stamp duty relief, something that was not related to the type of house being purchased.

I'd agree it was about the optics it looked better to give money to ftb rather than to developers directly.

End result the same? I wouldn't necessarily agree, I believe by pushing up the prices of new home by 20k it would have had an overall push on the price of all houses which may not have happened if the cost to developer was reduced and so the selling price wasn't as high. No way of proving mind.

Overall I think the scheme was a bad idea anyway.

aloooof

awec wrote: »

An interesting question is has the HTB scheme been a success?

I would think it probably has, given the rising number of new builds out there. This probably would have happened anyway, but HTB probably kickstarted this a bit.

At some point, probably in the very near future, there'll have to be a decision made on whether or not it's still required.

I think it was due to end in 2018, but was extended to the end of this year. Will be interesting if it will be further extended beyond 2019.

awec

An interesting question is has the HTB scheme been a success?

I would think it probably has, given the rising number of new builds out there. This probably would have happened anyway, but HTB probably kickstarted this a bit.

At some point, probably in the very near future, there'll have to be a decision made on whether or not it's still required.

The_Conductor

It does have the unfortunate effect that it has segregated FTBs into new estates- while pre-existing owners of property have no relative benefit to buy in new estates, and have a perverse disincentive to do so versus a FTB- while there is a level playing field for second hand property. As FTBs now make up over 50% of the market (and investors have dwindled)- it also means that movement in the non-FTB market is subdued when looking at historical norms.

If, as is apparent, the whole intent of the FTB 'grant' was to provide a sop to developers- a far fairer manner of doing so- would have been to reform VAT on new builds- or address development levies etc- rather than playing with smoke and mirrors in the manner in which has been done.

awec

cruizer101 wrote: »

I never said it should be available for second hand homes.

I said if there is an incentive scheme for first time buyers it should apply equally no matter what house you are buying.

This scheme was more of an incentive for developers which is fair enough but in that case it shouldn't have been through first time buyers it should have been directly to developers, .e.g. reduced planning costs or vat reduction.

Instead this idiotic scheme meant new homes instantly went up in price by 20k no matter if you were ftb or not.

How can it apply equally if it's not available for second hand homes?

I imagine the reason it was done via the incentive was it is nicer politics. Announcements of tax breaks for developers would have been attacked by all the usual suspects. Ultimately though the end result is the same.

Bluefoam

cruizer101 wrote: »

I never said it should be available for second hand homes.

I said if there is an incentive scheme for first time buyers it should apply equally no matter what house you are buying.

This scheme was more of an incentive for developers which is fair enough but in that case it shouldn't have been through first time buyers it should have been directly to developers, .e.g. reduced planning costs or vat reduction.

Instead this idiotic scheme meant new homes instantly went up in price by 20k no matter if you were ftb or not.

But it also had the effect of encouraging young people to move to the ouskirts (and further) of Dublin... which was much needed at the time. So they killed two birds with one stone.

cruizer101

awec wrote: »

It makes infinitely more sense for new homes when the whole point of it was to incentivise builders to build more houses.

If it were available for second hand properties then all that's going to happen is people who already have houses are going to get a windfall from the government.

I never said it should be available for second hand homes.

I said if there is an incentive scheme for first time buyers it should apply equally no matter what house you are buying.

This scheme was more of an incentive for developers which is fair enough but in that case it shouldn't have been through first time buyers it should have been directly to developers, .e.g. reduced planning costs or vat reduction.

Instead this idiotic scheme meant new homes instantly went up in price by 20k no matter if you were ftb or not.

awec

cruizer101 wrote: »

Because it makes loads of sense on New Homes? :pac:

I agree with you but really if there is a sort of first time buyer incentive it should be across the board rather than putting money directly into developers hands.

It makes infinitely more sense for new homes when the whole point of it was to incentivise builders to build more houses.

If it were available for second hand properties then all that's going to happen is people who already have houses are going to get a windfall from the government.

Bluefoam

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

The idea wasn't really meant to make it easier to buy a house, it was to get developers developing. It was a good idea, despite our cultural distaste for helping developers again.

Its also to encourage people to buy outside the M%) in large numbers...

Mickiemcfist

cruizer101 wrote: »

Because it makes loads of sense on New Homes? :pac:

I agree with you but really if there is a sort of first time buyer incentive it should be across the board rather than putting money directly into developers hands.

The idea wasn't really meant to make it easier to buy a house, it was to get developers developing. It was a good idea, despite our cultural distaste for helping developers again.

cruizer101

awec wrote: »

For good reason.

HTB on second hand sales would be absolutely insane.

Because it makes loads of sense on New Homes? :pac:

I agree with you but really if there is a sort of first time buyer incentive it should be across the board rather than putting money directly into developers hands.

awec

Sleepy wrote: »

No. Nothing available for those handing money to other private citizens rather than property developers.

For good reason.

HTB on second hand sales would be absolutely insane.

Sleepy

No. Nothing available for those handing money to other private citizens rather than property developers.

scarepanda

FTB, buying second hand home, do we qualify for any grants/schemes such as the HTB scheme? Ive been looking and can't find anything concrete one way or the other.

L1011

Jaster Rogue wrote: »

That HTB grant has already been factored into the price of new builds though. They went up by €20k almost overnight when the scheme was first announced.

I'm sure if I could be bothered to dig I'd find my post saying they would too.

The old FTB grant (killed in 2002) inflated prices also - they dropped almost identically as soon as it was cut. FTB treatment via stamp duty was much more effective, although with 1% sub-1M there's nothing really to cut now.

Jaster Rogue

Bluefoam wrote: »

I thought this was a bizaar article/ad: What first time buyers need to know about bidding...

Not allot, use the free money the government give you and buy a new place... no bidding involved.

That HTB grant has already been factored into the price of new builds though. They went up by €20k almost overnight when the scheme was first announced.
Also some people prefer to buy in more settled, established areas beside good schools, transport links, employment, no social housing, front/back gardens, etc.

Bluefoam

I thought this was a bizaar article/ad: What first time buyers need to know about bidding...

https://www.irishtimes.com/sponsored/bank-of-ireland-first-time-buyers/bidding-on-a-house-what-first-time-buyers-need-to-know-1.3824448

Not allot, use the free money the government give you and buy a new place... no bidding involved.

Rew

Maurice Yeltsin wrote: »

A
Ballybrack and Sallynoggin are around the 370k plus mark from memory. I'm seriously wondering if some fund is gradully buying up the houses there with the intent of tossing them and building mansions in their place, I can't work out who in their right mind pays that figure to live in an area that is still 50/50 owed by the council (not in terms of snobbery, more in terms of people would think you were on drugs to entertain paying 380k for a house in a heavily LA owned area of west Dublin, but someone is buying them for this in a similar part of the south east). The obvious answer would be people who grew up in Kiliney given a generous few quid from the parents, but do people like this really end up living in Ballybrack?

It's sad really, someone from Ballybrack/ Shankill who wishes to settle where they grew up is bizarrely better off doing FA with their life and qualifying for housing, god knows they won't afford it with the pay from most jobs or with most trades. Affordable housing schemes are needed all over Dublin but particularly in areas like this.

Half of Killiney/Glenageary is really Sallynoggin and the other half is Ballybrack so the lines are a bit blurred esp when it comes to schools. They are half the price of a-joining areas and easy access to all the things that make those desirable areas. I don't think there is much mansion building going on, the new ones near Ballybrack currently aren't selling. There is a big site opposite the Graduate thats going to get built on soon and the development on Glenageary rd upper looks fairly advanced which is houses and apartments.

awec

2nd hand semi D will be the first class of house to see prices level off, since it's the section of the market most directly impacted by help to buy (and in some areas of the country it's the only section of the market impacted by it).

Jaster Rogue

That independent report is unusual in that it only analyzes data for 2nd hand 3-bed semi D houses. Obviously this is where most of the developers have focused on delivering the last few years so more supply of these types of property is impacting prices. The prices of these units will never 'crash' though, when they're not selling or become too expensive to build then minor price fluctuations will occur (as is happening now) until developers will stop building them in such high numbers and an equilibrium of supply/demand/price levels is reached.

The demographics of society are changing and have changed in extreme ways. I was reading the After Hours thread about 51% of 18-35 year olds being single now. They don't need 3 and 4-bed semi D houses, they need good quality 1 and 2 bed apartments or similar units, with proper storage space, etc. Big houses are unsuitable, (nevermind being unaffordable with 1 income) for this growing demographic. Developers will hopefully start realizing this when the new semi D units become harder to sell. Building more apartments would also go a long way towards solving the housing crisis imo.

[Deleted User]

Ballybrack and shankill’s issue is that they’re not far from major professional business parks like Central Park, South County and Sandyford.

The job growth in those locations has been immense, the new Microsoft campus alone is staggering. So a short drive to work and a nice location by the sea is going to be very attractive for young professionals, the prices are lower than anywhere surrounding that’s not south to Wicklow or west to Tallaght.

I think the a comparison could be what happened to Ringsend after google and other IT multinationals located in the Docklands.

Maurice Yeltsin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Ex-corpo house in Kilbarrack will set you back at least that.

Absolutely. But Blanch, Finglas, Ballyfermot, Ballymun, Darndale, Tallaght, Clondalkin. Not a hope. Most would float around the 180 to 230k mark, Darndale/ Ballymun on the lower end of that, Ballyfermot and, recently, Blanch, towards the higher end.

Of course, these are asking prices. Last I looked any LA houses in Blanch that were overvalued were deservedly sitting there without a buyer for 8 months plus. This isn't 10 years ago, people aren't spending 230k on a house that shouldn't be on sale for more than 200k at a push.

Bluefoam wrote: »

You'd be lucky to find an ex corporation house in ballybrack for that...

Ballybrack and Sallynoggin are around the 370k plus mark from memory. I'm seriously wondering if some fund is gradully buying up the houses there with the intent of tossing them and building mansions in their place, I can't work out who in their right mind pays that figure to live in an area that is still 50/50 owed by the council (not in terms of snobbery, more in terms of people would think you were on drugs to entertain paying 380k for a house in a heavily LA owned area of west Dublin, but someone is buying them for this in a similar part of the south east). The obvious answer would be people who grew up in Kiliney given a generous few quid from the parents, but do people like this really end up living in Ballybrack?

It's sad really, someone from Ballybrack/ Shankill who wishes to settle where they grew up is bizarrely better off doing FA with their life and qualifying for housing, god knows they won't afford it with the pay from most jobs or with most trades. Affordable housing schemes are needed all over Dublin but particularly in areas like this.

Bluefoam

You'd be lucky to find an ex corporation house in ballybrack for that...