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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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PropertyHunt

Hi all,
New poster and just wanted to get an insight into others experiences of house hunting.
We are looking both South Dublin and North Dublin, D14/9/11 areas, and fairly underwhelmed having been looking for the last six weeks.
Any of the properties we’ve looked at have had 2 or 3 other couples max there, nothing like the queues we expected as we are looking for 3 or 4 bedroom homes.
We are looking for second hand property in ‘settled enough’ area, not a new build.
Anyhow, I don’t know if its Brexit related but things look pretty quiet. Some of the estate agents even ringing us repeatedly after viewings.
My issue is, some of the properties require 150/200k to do them up, and yet they are listed as more or less the same price as properties which are walk in.
I’d imagine the houses which were occupied by the very elderly, and being split between children etc, and the amounts of money being asked are insane. Am I missing something?
We live in a property we own, and not in any hurry to buy, so based on the last month or two, I think we’ll be sitting things out for the next little while.
We are mortgage approved and ready to go as they say. If we found a reasonably priced, walk in property in reasonable location we’d likely buy.
In terms of viewings, we are going by the websites, is there any point in contacting estate agent and saying we are mortgaged approved, want to buy in DX, find us a home.

Bluefoam

I'm going to assume the locations you mentioned are based on family needs... But D9, D11 & D14 seems a bit random.

[Deleted User]

Try D7 as well if you're happy enough to live in D9. You might not want to say but roughly what is your budget?

Pussyhands

House prices dropped by an average of 7500 euro in the first quarter this year.

Have seen ads being dropped surprisingly in my local area too.

Franz Von Peppercorn

EriT wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/negative-equity-to-end-next-year-37944987.html

Rise in house prices helping to end negative equity next year according to the independent

This article goes against what looks like a stagnation or fall in the market. Also the idea that there will be a significant wealth effect because the last 50k or so people get out of negative equity seems nonsensical. Most people are out now. Where’s the wealth effect?

Edit: it’s the ESRI. You can bet against it, so.

AlmightyCushion

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

This article goes against what looks like a stagnation or fall in the market. Also the idea that there will be a significant wealth effect because the last 50k or so people get out of negative equity seems nonsensical. Most people are out now. Where’s the wealth effect?

Edit: it’s the ESRI. You can bet against it, so.

I assume he means this article.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/big-freeze-in-house-prices-blamed-on-central-bank-rules-stifling-the-market-37946912.html

Franz Von Peppercorn

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I assume he means this article.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/big-freeze-in-house-prices-blamed-on-central-bank-rules-stifling-the-market-37946912.html

No the article I was talking about was about people getting out of negative equity and spending more.

Howeve, that article typically disgraceful independent propaganda. We are ill served by our commentariat in this country.

AlmightyCushion

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

No the article I was talking about was about people getting out of negative equity and spending more.

Howeve, that article typically disgraceful independent propaganda. We are ill served by our commentariat in this country.

My bad. Was reading on my phone and thought you quoted pussyhands. Hence the confusion.

Sunrise_Sunset

Plenty are still in negative equity depending on the location of the property.

Bob24

Interesting to see how the Indo says “Big freeze in house prices blamed on Central Bank rules 'stifling the market'”, and thus pictures price stagnation as a bad thing.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/big-freeze-in-house-prices-blamed-on-central-bank-rules-stifling-the-market-37946912.html

Choices in one’s words clearly shows ideological bias as well as a need for attention, and I’m sure many people in this country would thank rather than blame any entity which might be responsible for house prices moderation.

Plus there is a slight journalistic contradiction in crying about the housing crisis in some articles while portraying price stabilisation as something someone should be blamed for in other articles :-)

Sheeps

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting to see how the Indo says “Big freeze in house prices blamed on Central Bank rules 'stifling the market'”, and thus pictures price stagnation as a bad thing.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/big-freeze-in-house-prices-blamed-on-central-bank-rules-stifling-the-market-37946912.html

Choices in one’s words clearly shows ideological bias as well as a need for attention, and I’m sure many people in this country would thank rather than blame any entity which might be responsible for house prices moderation.

Plus there is a slight journalistic contradiction in crying about the housing crisis in some articles while portraying price stabilisation as something someone should be blamed for in other articles :-)

In complete agreement here, it's enraging.

hmmm

Sheeps wrote: »

In complete agreement here, it's enraging.

Many Irish people have learned nothing from the crash, and still think encouraging people to take on more debt in order to drive up prices is a good thing. The CBI are protecting us from ourselves, and it's sad that we rarely see politicians standing up for them.

Re the market - on the one hand it'd be great to see house prices begin to stabilise. This is how a property market should work.

On the other hand there's a downside - it might make developers more hesitant to build if they feel that the prices they want to achieve aren't available, and put a halt to new supply. We still have this dysfunctional rental market which is operating separately to owning property - the one thing the CBI have got wrong in my opinion is the deposit rules, because rental prices continue to increase so squeezing people's ability to save a deposit, and the two markets are operating on different paths.

Sheeps

hmmm wrote: »

Many Irish people have learned nothing from the crash, and still think encouraging people to take on more debt in order to drive up prices is a good thing. The CBI are protecting us from ourselves, and it's sad that we rarely see politicians standing up for them.

Re the market - on the one hand it'd be great to see house prices begin to stabilise. This is how a property market should work.

On the other hand there's a downside - it might make developers more hesitant to build if they feel that the prices they want to achieve aren't available, and put a halt to new supply. We still have this dysfunctional rental market which is operating separately to owning property - the one thing the CBI have got wrong in my opinion is the deposit rules, because rental prices continue to increase so squeezing people's ability to save a deposit, and the two markets are operating on different paths.

Whilst on one hand I completely agree about protecting ourselves from carrying too much debt and am very much in favor of the central bank lending rules on the other hand I've just this very minute been granted an exemption mortgage from those very rules. I'm still very reluctant to actually take it, but I'm now in the new house territory. Having rented for a decade, being evicted and force to move back in with the parents, it's a huge relief, given the sheer impossibility of being able to afford a home as a single mortgage applicant with lending rules the way they are in the market as it is.

My anger at the article comes from the language used in the wording of it, in clear that author sees property as merely a speculative asset.

jay0109

hmmm wrote: »

On the other hand there's a downside - it might make developers more hesitant to build if they feel that the prices they want to achieve aren't available, and put a halt to new supply.

If Builder's aren't building at these prices, then there is something seriously wrong in this country.

Bluefoam

jay0109 wrote: »

If Builder's aren't building at these prices, then there is something seriously wrong in this country.

There is something seriously wrong with this country... Inflation!!!

The cost of building has rocketed... cost of materials is extremely high... labour cannot be found... experienced labour is just not available in quanity... Quality of houses is now (alegedly & apperently) at its highest every, but that costs money... Developers cannot build quick enough due to the reasons above.

Many builders have started hoarding materials shipped from the UK because of the risk of a bad Brexit... But these stocks will only last a finite period, once they are gone they will have to find a new source, new shipping and the price will go up.

hmmm

Bluefoam wrote: »

The cost of building has rocketed..

Absolutely. Lots of new standards. Lots of taxes. Handing 10% over to social housing. Builders are not going to build if they are going to lose money, it's very simple - a fall in prices is going to impact on supply.

The_Conductor

Bluefoam wrote: »

There is something seriously wrong with this country... Inflation!!!

The cost of building has rocketed... cost of materials is extremely high... labour cannot be found... experienced labour is just not available in quanity... Quality of houses is now (alegedly & apperently) at its highest every, but that costs money... Developers cannot build quick enough due to the reasons above.

Many builders have started hoarding materials shipped from the UK because of the risk of a bad Brexit... But these stocks will only last a finite period, once they are gone they will have to find a new source, new shipping and the price will go up.

Construction inflation in Ireland is accepted to be roughly 5% per annum.
This is inclusive of all the weird and bizarre regulations that the government has seen fit to foist on the sector.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Bluefoam wrote: »

There is something seriously wrong with this country... Inflation!!!

The cost of building has rocketed... cost of materials is extremely high... labour cannot be found... experienced labour is just not available in quanity... Quality of houses is now (alegedly & apperently) at its highest every, but that costs money... Developers cannot build quick enough due to the reasons above.

Many builders have started hoarding materials shipped from the UK because of the risk of a bad Brexit... But these stocks will only last a finite period, once they are gone they will have to find a new source, new shipping and the price will go up.

Maybe we should import cheaper builders. Whats the reason for all of this inflation? Theres not much retail inflation.

Pussyhands

Builders are barely making any money due to all those taxes.

They could knock an average of 40k of their average price and still make an operating profit.

Bigmac1euro

The prices of new builds in general has rocketed.

I seen the same houses increase 40 - 50k in a 6 month period for absolutely no reason.

I don’t think the developers are taking too much of a hit tbh. This all seems like waffle.
They are building homes for 390k in absolute kips with no even decent road infrastructure.

They are making a killing. There’s new developments everywhere access the city.
There wouldn’t be so much building 4 bed and 3 bed semi d’s if there wasn’t so much profit to be made.
So I don’t agree that they are being squeezed.
Look at the state of the houses Ganons built a few years back.
This country is backwards that people actually feel sorry for developers who are clearly taking advantage of people and have been for years.
I wouldn’t like to have bought a Celtic tiger era house I tell ya that much.

dudara

PropertyHunt wrote: »

Hi all,
New poster and just wanted to get an insight into others experiences of house hunting.
We are looking both South Dublin and North Dublin, D14/9/11 areas, and fairly underwhelmed having been looking for the last six weeks.
Any of the properties we’ve looked at have had 2 or 3 other couples max there, nothing like the queues we expected as we are looking for 3 or 4 bedroom homes.
We are looking for second hand property in ‘settled enough’ area, not a new build.
Anyhow, I don’t know if its Brexit related but things look pretty quiet. Some of the estate agents even ringing us repeatedly after viewings.
My issue is, some of the properties require 150/200k to do them up, and yet they are listed as more or less the same price as properties which are walk in.
I’d imagine the houses which were occupied by the very elderly, and being split between children etc, and the amounts of money being asked are insane. Am I missing something?

We were looking last summer and closed at the start of November. The above summarises our experience pretty accurately. I know two swallows does not a summer make, but I think there’s a lot of truth here.

My big concern about the market rests with the houses you describe. The ones that need €100-200k work, but are on the market for nearly the same price as a ready to go house. I saw some doozies last year, it seems as if sellers/agents were smoking some good stuff.

Browney7

hmmm wrote: »

Absolutely. Lots of new standards. Lots of taxes. Handing 10% over to social housing. Builders are not going to build if they are going to lose money, it's very simple - a fall in prices is going to impact on supply.

Is it not that they have to sell 10% to the council at cost?

oceanman

Browney7 wrote: »

Is it not that they have to sell 10% to the council at cost?

the builder would factor that into the price.

Browney7

oceanman wrote: »

the builder would factor that into the price.

I know. The original quote was intimating that the council got it for free. If the builder forgoes a 10% net profit margin it adds just over 1% to the other houses so not exactly sending our developer amigos on the express train to penury.

Maurice Yeltsin

Bob24 wrote: »

Interesting to see how the Indo says “Big freeze in house prices blamed on Central Bank rules 'stifling the market'”, and thus pictures price stagnation as a bad thing.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/big-freeze-in-house-prices-blamed-on-central-bank-rules-stifling-the-market-37946912.html

Choices in one’s words clearly shows ideological bias as well as a need for attention, and I’m sure many people in this country would thank rather than blame any entity which might be responsible for house prices moderation.

Plus there is a slight journalistic contradiction in crying about the housing crisis in some articles while portraying price stabilisation as something someone should be blamed for in other articles :-)

There was an article from circa January 2018 in the indo warning that within 18 months (so, roundabout now really) the cost of the cheapest ex corpo house within the Dublin borders would be pushing 300k.

Does anyone have the link to this buy buy now propoganda piece just to have a good laugh at it? I've tried googling to no avail.

Samuel T. Cogley

Maurice Yeltsin wrote: »

There was an article from circa January 2018 in the indo warning that within 18 months (so, roundabout now really) the cost of the cheapest ex corpo house within the Dublin borders would be pushing 300k.

Does anyone have the link to this buy buy now propoganda piece just to have a good laugh at it? I've tried googling to no avail.

Ex-corpo house in Kilbarrack will set you back at least that.

Bluefoam

You'd be lucky to find an ex corporation house in ballybrack for that...

Maurice Yeltsin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Ex-corpo house in Kilbarrack will set you back at least that.

Absolutely. But Blanch, Finglas, Ballyfermot, Ballymun, Darndale, Tallaght, Clondalkin. Not a hope. Most would float around the 180 to 230k mark, Darndale/ Ballymun on the lower end of that, Ballyfermot and, recently, Blanch, towards the higher end.

Of course, these are asking prices. Last I looked any LA houses in Blanch that were overvalued were deservedly sitting there without a buyer for 8 months plus. This isn't 10 years ago, people aren't spending 230k on a house that shouldn't be on sale for more than 200k at a push.

Bluefoam wrote: »

You'd be lucky to find an ex corporation house in ballybrack for that...

Ballybrack and Sallynoggin are around the 370k plus mark from memory. I'm seriously wondering if some fund is gradully buying up the houses there with the intent of tossing them and building mansions in their place, I can't work out who in their right mind pays that figure to live in an area that is still 50/50 owed by the council (not in terms of snobbery, more in terms of people would think you were on drugs to entertain paying 380k for a house in a heavily LA owned area of west Dublin, but someone is buying them for this in a similar part of the south east). The obvious answer would be people who grew up in Kiliney given a generous few quid from the parents, but do people like this really end up living in Ballybrack?

It's sad really, someone from Ballybrack/ Shankill who wishes to settle where they grew up is bizarrely better off doing FA with their life and qualifying for housing, god knows they won't afford it with the pay from most jobs or with most trades. Affordable housing schemes are needed all over Dublin but particularly in areas like this.

[Deleted User]

Ballybrack and shankill’s issue is that they’re not far from major professional business parks like Central Park, South County and Sandyford.

The job growth in those locations has been immense, the new Microsoft campus alone is staggering. So a short drive to work and a nice location by the sea is going to be very attractive for young professionals, the prices are lower than anywhere surrounding that’s not south to Wicklow or west to Tallaght.

I think the a comparison could be what happened to Ringsend after google and other IT multinationals located in the Docklands.

Jaster Rogue

That independent report is unusual in that it only analyzes data for 2nd hand 3-bed semi D houses. Obviously this is where most of the developers have focused on delivering the last few years so more supply of these types of property is impacting prices. The prices of these units will never 'crash' though, when they're not selling or become too expensive to build then minor price fluctuations will occur (as is happening now) until developers will stop building them in such high numbers and an equilibrium of supply/demand/price levels is reached.

The demographics of society are changing and have changed in extreme ways. I was reading the After Hours thread about 51% of 18-35 year olds being single now. They don't need 3 and 4-bed semi D houses, they need good quality 1 and 2 bed apartments or similar units, with proper storage space, etc. Big houses are unsuitable, (nevermind being unaffordable with 1 income) for this growing demographic. Developers will hopefully start realizing this when the new semi D units become harder to sell. Building more apartments would also go a long way towards solving the housing crisis imo.