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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Pussyhands

awec wrote: »

I'm not so sure you really know as much as you think you do.

You are of course correct that prices will drop at some point. That's about as insightful as saying the sun will rise tomorrow. Of course prices will go down again. They could drop a few percent over the next 12 months.

You seem under the impression there's another 2008 around the corner. If there is, we're all fcuked, and you'll not be buying any property either way. You won't be buying much of anything if that happens again any time soon. Our banks would be finished, the arse would fall out of everything.

Where have I said this?

anyways, not going to talk anymore about the economy for now. People don't like to hear it apparantly.

snowcat

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was going to guess you were below the age of 30 and I'm not trying to be condescending by saying that. Property prices falling by 50% and more in the last recession was a once in a multi generational event. Many people will never experience a drop like that in their lifetime. While I agree that everyone has to be responsible for the decisions they make, alot of people couldn't stay the course to get out of that level of negative equity due to the job losses, slow wage growth over the last decade etc.

Thats their problem then. Not the people who did not gamble. You buy your 50k 520d in the morning. Dont give out when smelly diesel makes your car worth 25k in a years time, houses are not one way investments. Market forces impact prices.

Pussyhands

Beheretomorrow wrote: »

I was going to guess you were below the age of 30 and I'm not trying to be condescending by saying that. Property prices falling by 50% and more in the last recession was a once in a multi generational event. Many people will never experience a drop like that in their lifetime. While I agree that everyone has to be responsible for the decisions they make, alot of people couldn't stay the course to get out of that level of negative equity due to the job losses, slow wage growth over the last decade etc.

I hope they sell once they get out of negative equity then because we're going to drop again. And this time the recovery won't be so quick. You will know about it in within 18-24 months.

I'm actually rare for my age to know that recessions are cyclical and are inevitable, unlike most who believe the gravy train never ends.

Pussyhands

<snip>

Beheretomorrow

Pussyhands wrote: »

Huh? Where am I complaining about it exactly?

Not sure what you're talking about my inability to buy a house for? I can buy one easily. I have over 70k cash in my account right now and I'm some years from 30 years of age yet. Your right, my 2k stock portfolio is down about 1.5% right now but still not complaining about it.

When I start blaming the government for making me put money into bitcoin you can talk!

I was going to guess you were below the age of 30 and I'm not trying to be condescending by saying that. Property prices falling by 50% and more in the last recession was a once in a multi generational event. Many people will never experience a drop like that in their lifetime. While I agree that everyone has to be responsible for the decisions they make, alot of people couldn't stay the course to get out of that level of negative equity due to the job losses, slow wage growth over the last decade etc.

daithiK1

Pussyhands wrote: »

EriT wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/negative-equity-to-end-next-year-37944987.html

Rise in house prices helping to end negative equity next year according to the independent

I have no sympathy for anyone in negative equity.

Negative equity only comes into play when you want to sell your house. The vast majority of people buying houses should be buying a house for life, or at least be happy to live in the house they buy for life.

Even so, you should be out of negative equity after a few years. Let's say you had a mortgage of 300k and the house was worth 250k. After 5 years you should be clear.

Sick of hearing people go on about negative equity as if they're a victim of something that wasn't their fault. They bought an asset. That asset dropped in value. That's it. You don't have a right not to lose money on an asset.

Most of the people complaining of negative equity are just bitter they made ****ty financial decisions.

That's a very bitter post a one dimensional view, contradictory and inaccurate.

Graham

Mod Note

Pussyhands, up the standard of your posts.

Pussyhands

Whelo79 wrote: »

And most people have zero sympathy for your losses when you bought Bitcoin, your inability to buy a house and your stocks going into red recently. Yet here you are on here whining about it to us all for the last 12 months plus.

Huh? Where am I complaining about it exactly?

Not sure what you're talking about my inability to buy a house for? I can buy one easily. I have over 70k cash in my account right now and I'm some years from 30 years of age yet. Your right, my 2k stock portfolio is down about 1.5% right now but still not complaining about it.

When I start blaming the government for making me put money into bitcoin you can talk!

Whelo79

Pussyhands wrote: »

I have no sympathy for anyone in negative equity.

Negative equity only comes into play when you want to sell your house. The vast majority of people buying houses should be buying a house for life, or at least be happy to live in the house they buy for life.

Even so, you should be out of negative equity after a few years. Let's say you had a mortgage of 300k and the house was worth 250k. After 5 years you should be clear.

Sick of hearing people go on about negative equity as if they're a victim of something that wasn't their fault. They bought an asset. That asset dropped in value. That's it. You don't have a right not to lose money on an asset.

Most of the people complaining of negative equity are just bitter they made ****ty financial decisions.

And most people have zero sympathy for your losses when you bought Bitcoin, your inability to buy a house and your stocks going into red recently. Yet here you are on here whining about it to us all for the last 12 months plus.

[Deleted User]

Bizarre stuff. What on earth is wrong with you?

[Deleted User]

Pussyhands wrote: »

There's a concept called renting.

Don't really know what business it is of yours to be telling anyone whether they should rent or buy.

Pussyhands

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

You do know people move around for various reasons, jobs, family, life etc. The days of buying a house for life are long gone. Such an outdated view of the world.

There's a concept called renting.

wirelessdude01

Pussyhands wrote:

Negative equity only comes into play when you want to sell your house. The vast majority of people buying houses should be buying a house for life, or at least be happy to live in the house they buy for life.

You do know people move around for various reasons, jobs, family, life etc. The days of buying a house for life are long gone. Such an outdated view of the world.

Pussyhands

EriT wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/negative-equity-to-end-next-year-37944987.html

Rise in house prices helping to end negative equity next year according to the independent

I have no sympathy for anyone in negative equity.

Negative equity only comes into play when you want to sell your house. The vast majority of people buying houses should be buying a house for life, or at least be happy to live in the house they buy for life.

Even so, you should be out of negative equity after a few years. Let's say you had a mortgage of 300k and the house was worth 250k. After 5 years you should be clear.

Sick of hearing people go on about negative equity as if they're a victim of something that wasn't their fault. They bought an asset. That asset dropped in value. That's it. You don't have a right not to lose money on an asset.

Most of the people complaining of negative equity are just bitter they made ****ty financial decisions.

EriT

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/negative-equity-to-end-next-year-37944987.html

Rise in house prices helping to end negative equity next year according to the independent

Bluefoam

CPTM wrote: »

Would you
A) Sell the small house and buy the Semi D?
Remortgage the small house and buy a Semi D?
C) Something else - Sell the small house at the inflated market price now and sit and wait for 6 months while Semi D house prices fall?

That depends on your reason for moving, your work, social and family needs, your view on world economic factors, local economic factors, Brexit etc...

Your call to make. The answers you get on boards could be coming from hyper intelligent economists, but equally could come from 12 year old keyboard warriors... I'd ignore most of what you read here... Treat it as entertainment rather than rational discourse.

q85dw7osi4lebg

CPTM wrote: »

I would appreciate anyone's insights on my assessment of the market. I have a small 2 bed artisan cottage in south Dublin (bought 2013) that I'm going to sell. We're looking to move up to a family home. I think this is the right time to move up because:
1) If they start building skywards in South Dublin, it will be one/two bed apartments, and any potential buyers of my small house could transfer to these high spec apartments. This will reduce the value of my home.

2) Semi D's are different - you can't really build these on top of each other and so the cost of these will continue to rise overtime, particularly in South Dublin. Sure, they could build out into South County Dublin, but with the state of transport and the time it takes to get to City Centre, the demand for these houses in Dublin 6/Dublin 4 areas will be maintained.

Edit: 3) Wages in Dublin are rising rapidly (particularly in IT) which will increase the buyer's budget dramatically, pushing house prices up

However, my experience in the viewings is that the Semi D prices are falling. Every single house I've viewed is struggling to get asking price.

Would you
A) Sell the small house and buy the Semi D?
Remortgage the small house and buy a Semi D?
C) Something else - Sell the small house at the inflated market price now and sit and wait for 6 months while Semi D house prices fall?

Sell house, move further afield, live mortgage free.

CPTM

I would appreciate anyone's insights on my assessment of the market. I have a small 2 bed artisan cottage in south Dublin (bought 2013) that I'm going to sell. We're looking to move up to a family home. I think this is the right time to move up because:
1) If they start building skywards in South Dublin, it will be one/two bed apartments, and any potential buyers of my small house could transfer to these high spec apartments. This will reduce the value of my home.

2) Semi D's are different - you can't really build these on top of each other and so the cost of these will continue to rise overtime, particularly in South Dublin. Sure, they could build out into South County Dublin, but with the state of transport and the time it takes to get to City Centre, the demand for these houses in Dublin 6/Dublin 4 areas will be maintained.

Edit: 3) Wages in Dublin are rising rapidly (particularly in IT) which will increase the buyer's budget dramatically, pushing house prices up

However, my experience in the viewings is that the Semi D prices are falling. Every single house I've viewed is struggling to get asking price.

Would you
A) Sell the small house and buy the Semi D?

Remortgage the small house and buy a Semi D?
C) Something else - Sell the small house at the inflated market price now and sit and wait for 6 months while Semi D house prices fall?

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

Sheeps wrote: »

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Sit tight. These prices are unsustainable...

You make a strong argument!

theboringfox

Think market is soft. Not sure I see anything in next couple years that will cause big fall though. Central bank rules have correctly kept lid on prices. Maybe a removal of exceptions is warranted though and that may hit prices.

Pussyhands

Sheeps wrote: »

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Sit tight. These prices are unsustainable...

Sheeps

Doing my daily search of somewhere to live, and let me just say, the absolute state of houses under 325k is ridiculous. It's disgusting. Over the last two years, my expectations have been sliding ever more downhill, and I keep thinking we're at rock bottom, but every day is a new low for me. It's horrifying, demoralising and ultimately depressing.

Sheeps

Bluefoam wrote: »

I had a look at a 2 bed house in kilmainham a few weeks ago... It was uninhabitable. He had extended through the full back yard. If you looked out the window your neighbours wall was 2 feet in front of you. There was zero light. There was mould and damp. The layout was bizarre. There was building work going on and no floorboards, missing patches of wall and ceiling. Rooms were tiny front door was rotten away... He told me that the estate agent had advertised it for 325, but he wouldn't take less that 500k as another house in the area had sold for 525k a couple of years ago.

This house will stay on the market indefinitely...

You'll be surprised. Looked at something similar in Stoney Batter at 375, and it's sold as a "fixer upper".

Bluefoam

I had a look at a 2 bed house in kilmainham a few weeks ago... It was uninhabitable. He had extended through the full back yard. If you looked out the window your neighbours wall was 2 feet in front of you. There was zero light. There was mould and damp. The layout was bizarre. There was building work going on and no floorboards, missing patches of wall and ceiling. Rooms were tiny front door was rotten away... He told me that the estate agent had advertised it for 325, but he wouldn't take less that 500k as another house in the area had sold for 525k a couple of years ago.

This house will stay on the market indefinitely...

kippy

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

There's not an undersupply in Dublin?
Really?

[Deleted User]

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

You must be the only person in the country who has concluded there's an under-supply in Dublin.

Bob24

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

It is not contradictory to have items which take a while to sell while supply is constrained.

For exemple I could have a very rare edition of a Beatles record for which only 10 copies exist in the world, and leave it on sale at a very high price for months because I know no one else is currently selling the same and rather than selling quickly I prefer to wait for a wealthy collector to give in as they have no other option. Extremely constrained supply but selling takes a while because I am not in a rush to sell and I believe that since the market is constrained I’d better not rush things to get the most benefit.

Bluefoam

Some houses are just undesirable because they aren't what people are looking for or because the vendor believes their value is higher than it actually is... Not all houses will sell immediately, that is not a reflection on the market, more to do with individual circumstances... Plus, people want the best house for them, particularly in an expensive market...

Subutai

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

The housing market isn't straightforward supply - demand. Demand is mediated by access to credit. That is now the pressure point as for the higher end of the market prices can no longer rise sustainably at a rate higher than wage increases.

Sunrise_Sunset

bubblypop wrote: »

And yet there are houses in Dublin laying in the market since last summer, now starting to drop their asking prices.
So clearly there is not an under supply in Dublin anyway.

Same in North Wicklow. Excluding the 3 or 4 bed, 3 bath houses that are the most desirable. Apartments, duplexes, bungalows are the harder sell and seem to be lingering for a while for dropping their prices.