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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Pussyhands

Can't say I've seen any decrease in new asking prices where I'm keeping an eye on. Ads going up for big money.

derekbro

Not one mention on theJournal.ie or rte.ie that prices actually fell in the last 3 months. :rolleyes:

https://www.thejournal.ie/residential-property-prices-cso-2019-4542039-Mar2019/
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0314/1036365-residential-property-prices/

Pussyhands

derekbro wrote: »

Not one mention on theJournal.ie or rte.ie that prices actually fell in the last 3 months. :rolleyes:

https://www.thejournal.ie/residential-property-prices-cso-2019-4542039-Mar2019/
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0314/1036365-residential-property-prices/

I'm confused. What do they mean in the year to January. They mean Feb 18 - Jan 19 right?

But that can't be right if they say they only grew by 1.9% in Dublin?

AlmightyCushion

Pussyhands wrote: »

I'm confused. What do they mean in the year to January. They mean Feb 18 - Jan 19 right?

But that can't be right if they say they only grew by 1.9% in Dublin?

5.6% is the national increase.

Pussyhands

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

5.6% is the national increase.

So Dublin actually only rose 1.9% in 12 months? I thought it had been going up like 5% in Dublin too tbh.

Zenify

derekbro wrote: »

Not one mention on theJournal.ie or rte.ie that prices actually fell in the last 3 months. :rolleyes:

https://www.thejournal.ie/residential-property-prices-cso-2019-4542039-Mar2019/
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0314/1036365-residential-property-prices/

There's a lot of people with vested interest. I'm even suspicious of a lot of people on here. However, sometimes I think I'm crazy and I should be wearing a tin foil hat.

alexjp

Zenify wrote: »

There's a lot of people with vested interest. I'm even suspicious of a lot of people on here. However, sometimes I think I'm crazy and I should be wearing a tin foil hat.

I totally agree.

The_Conductor

Pussyhands wrote: »

So Dublin actually only rose 1.9% in 12 months? I thought it had been going up like 5% in Dublin too tbh.

Its particular sectors of the market in Dublin that are falling faster than other sectors. E.g. 300-400k houses- are fairly static, 250-350k apartments are growing at 4-5%- but from a much lower base- and the +450k sector- is actively falling.

Much is being done to try and use smoke and mirrors to minimise any falls and to mask any unavoidable falls- including but not limited to withdrawing new properties from sale- and then readvertising but in different media- so it doesn't register as a fall. This is becoming quite obvious in some areas though.

Also- having a healthy scepticism about people's motives- and their commentary- is probably the sanest approach people can have these days. The arse isn't falling out of the market- but its not roaring ahead either- its whimpering in some areas- and completely and utterly irrational in others.

Pussyhands

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its particular sectors of the market in Dublin that are falling faster than other sectors. E.g. 300-400k houses- are fairly static, 250-350k apartments are growing at 4-5%- but from a much lower base- and the +450k sector- is actively falling.

Much is being done to try and use smoke and mirrors to minimise any falls and to mask any unavoidable falls- including but not limited to withdrawing new properties from sale- and then readvertising but in different media- so it doesn't register as a fall. This is becoming quite obvious in some areas though.

Also- having a healthy scepticism about people's motives- and their commentary- is probably the sanest approach people can have these days. The arse isn't falling out of the market- but its not roaring ahead either- its whimpering in some areas- and completely and utterly irrational in others.

Could a case be made that the lending limits imposed make the pool of buildings smaller for the average earners who then are in competition with each other and thus driving the prices up above what they really should be?

Bob24

Zenify wrote: »

There's a lot of people with vested interest. I'm even suspicious of a lot of people on here. However, sometimes I think I'm crazy and I should be wearing a tin foil hat.

Well yes between people who own property, those who want to buy property, and those whose job/business is related to property, a majority of the adult population probably has a vested interest in property prices.

Bbborris

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its particular sectors of the market in Dublin that are falling faster than other sectors. E.g. 300-400k houses- are fairly static, 250-350k apartments are growing at 4-5%- but from a much lower base- and the +450k sector- is actively falling.

Much is being done to try and use smoke and mirrors to minimise any falls and to mask any unavoidable falls- including but not limited to withdrawing new properties from sale- and then readvertising but in different media- so it doesn't register as a fall. This is becoming quite obvious in some areas though.

Also- having a healthy scepticism about people's motives- and their commentary- is probably the sanest approach people can have these days. The arse isn't falling out of the market- but its not roaring ahead either- its whimpering in some areas- and completely and utterly irrational in others.

I've been keeping an eye on new 3 bed terraces around the Lucan area. They seem to be rising and rising. What was 300k-310k three years ago is now 345k-350k.

Wondering how far they can go, it's demoralising.

Runaude

How far can these properties rise? I own a south dublin property outright. Bought in the 90's, mortgage paid off and now has risen year on year. I'm in a position to sell..... I feel the bubble is about to burst again. Is this the correct time to exit?

accensi0n

Runaude wrote: »

How far can these properties rise? I own a south dublin property outright. Bought in the 90's, mortgage paid off and now has risen year on year. I'm in a position to sell..... I feel the bubble is about to burst again. Is this the correct time to exit?

Yes.

Cuddlesworth

Bbborris wrote: »

I've been keeping an eye on new 3 bed terraces around the Lucan area. They seem to be rising and rising. What was 300k-310k three years ago is now 345k-350k.

Wondering how far they can go, it's demoralising.

350k to a working couple is very affordable though, central bank rules and all.

antiskeptic

Runaude wrote: »

How far can these properties rise? I own a south dublin property outright. Bought in the 90's, mortgage paid off and now has risen year on year. I'm in a position to sell..... I feel the bubble is about to burst again. Is this the correct time to exit?

The Central bank restrictions are what's causing price rises to halt. SCD is most desirable, prices have risen and are now bouncing against the CB's rev limiter. People can't borrow more to inflate more, hence flattening.

Prices in surrounding areas (e.g. Bray) have continued to rise but are flattening too as prices there find their equilibrium against SCD.

The same will happen other areas still rising. As they find equilibrium with more desirable areas, they too will experience flattening prices.

The demand for houses is there but irrelevant. Just as the demand for Maserati's is there, but irrelevant. The issue is whether people can afford the house or the Maserati.

There is nothing much to indicate a bubble, unless you suppose the economy is going to hit the wall and demand shrivels (because banks won't lend at all). In that event, there will be oversupply and price falls.

Without that event, the demand is there, loans will be given and prices asked will reflect CB limits.

Whilst SCD might be at peak, there is no reason to suspect a fall. If you're downsizing in the same area then why not now (and avoid risk of a fall).

[Deleted User]

The_Conductor wrote: »

I

Much is being done to try and use smoke and mirrors to minimise any falls and to mask any unavoidable falls- including but not limited to withdrawing new properties from sale- and then readvertising but in different media- so it doesn't register as a fall.

Viewed a house last year at 340k but was a bit rich for us.
Came back up for sale in Jan asking 299 and we bought it.
No record of the old asking price online.

Cryptopagan

Runaude wrote: »

How far can these properties rise? I own a south dublin property outright. Bought in the 90's, mortgage paid off and now has risen year on year. I'm in a position to sell..... I feel the bubble is about to burst again. Is this the correct time to exit?

Where are you going to move to? If you’re staying in Dublin and you think we’re at the top of the market you won’t want to buy anything immediately, but renting is very expensive at the moment, so if your hunch is wrong you could end up frittering away a fortune in rent waiting for a bust that doesn’t come.

Personally, I would never pursue that kind of speculative strategy with my own home.

bluelamp

The CSO's latest release has Dublins property price index in January 19 at the same level as May 2018.

The rest of the country was still climbing as of January though.

A small welcome relief for people saving for a home in Dublin.

Pussyhands

BrownFinger wrote: »

Viewed a house last year at 340k but was a bit rich for us.
Came back up for sale in Jan asking 299 and we bought it.
No record of the old asking price online.

How much did you buy it for?

Sunrise_Sunset

BrownFinger wrote: »

Viewed a house last year at 340k but was a bit rich for us.
Came back up for sale in Jan asking 299 and we bought it.
No record of the old asking price online.

I'd love for this to happen in my situation. Losing all hope. Can barely afford to buy a 2 bed house in our area at the current prices.

[Deleted User]

Pussyhands wrote: »

How much did you buy it for?

A few K over asking but we felt there was value there.

[Deleted User]

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I'd love for this to happen in my situation. Losing all hope. Can barely afford to buy a 2 bed house in our area at the current prices.

Well we moved out of our area by 20Km
granted we didnt want a house in an estate so we didnt consider that a sacrifice.

Keep the faith Sunrise!

Runaude

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Where are you going to move to? If you’re staying in Dublin and you think we’re at the top of the market you won’t want to buy anything immediately, but renting is very expensive at the moment, so if your hunch is wrong you could end up frittering away a fortune in rent waiting for a bust that doesn’t come.

Personally, I would never pursue that kind of speculative strategy with my own home.

Ha this was something I had thought about but I came to the same conclusions. I would be moving west and downsizing.

Fol20

Sunrise_Sunset wrote: »

I'd love for this to happen in my situation. Losing all hope. Can barely afford to buy a 2 bed house in our area at the current prices.

You do know that once house prices start to fall which will happen at some stage, you will see a major credit crunch and unless your perfect. your not going to get as much credit as you can get now. Its all relative and in some cases, its actually worse as people cant get a mortgage any longer. Take a look at Australia right now, people having been complaining for circa 20years that prices are going up and now their going down and a lot of people arent buying.

Sunrise_Sunset

BrownFinger wrote: »

Well we moved out of our area by 20Km
granted we didnt want a house in an estate so we didnt consider that a sacrifice.

Keep the faith Sunrise!

It's good to hear positive stories like this anyway.
We've already moved 20km away from our area too, and out of Dublin. Even with this we are struggling with the current prices.

The_Conductor

The Indo must be reading this thread- they have an article (Charlie Weston) looking at the last 3 months in today's issue here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-fall-for-the-third-month-in-a-row-as-demand-eases-37915787.html

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

Sunrise_Sunset

Fol20 wrote: »

You do know that once house prices start to fall which will happen at some stage, you will see a major credit crunch and unless your perfect. your not going to get as much credit as you can get now. Its all relative and in some cases, its actually worse as people cant get a mortgage any longer. Take a look at Australia right now, people having been complaining for circa 20years that prices are going up and now their going down and a lot of people arent buying.

Yes I realise this. And I have a property to sell too so I don't want prices to crash either. But the rate that prices are increasing now, I can't keep up. I am lucky to be mortgage approved so the race is on to find somewhere, as once the approval expires I worry I might not get it again.

thunderdog

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

antiskeptic

The_Conductor wrote: »

I'm not convinced that demand is easing- its more credit is drying up- people can't access the level of credit needed to support the current level of prices.

You mean "can't drive prices upwards anymore"

[Deleted User]

thunderdog wrote: »

Is there anyway to compare original asking price with selling price apart from tracking it manually?

Daftdrop has some info,