Border Poll discussion

facehugger99 wrote: »

The people of ROI would need to vote for it too, which would be highly unlikely given the financial implications.

What financial implications? Can you quantify outside a subvention figure that's completely opaque. No? Didnt think so.

Without knowing that your assertion is very weak.

downcow wrote: »

Well now a few people came up to visit last week from cork and they drive because they couldn’t afford the extortionate train fares

Have you resorted to meaningless anecdotes already? 2/10.

facehugger99

FrancieBrady wrote: »

An 'independent state' choice would have to be on the ballot and it won't. That would have to be separate as we in the south would have no say in that.

A border poll under the auspices of the GFA will have a Stay or Unity option only.

It will be a stay or leave option, same as Scotland.

They’ll have to accept the very likely possibility that we in the ROI are not going to step into the sugar-daddy role.

It’s another reason why the comfortable public sector workforce will never vote to leave.

Life’s too good for them on the tit of mother England, so to speak.

Translink Belfast botanical to Cork £71.50 return. £64.50 single.

Irishrail Cork to Belfast €107.90. €53.95 single.

After conversion not much difference in costs for a return. If they can't afford that they should have worked harder in school

facehugger99 wrote: »

It will be a stay or leave option, same as Scotland.

They’ll have to accept the very likely possibility that we in the ROI are not going to step into the sugar-daddy role.

It’s another reason why the comfortable public sector workforce will never vote to leave.

Life’s too good for them on the tit of mother England, so to speak.

I think you are underestimating them. Especially as they have witnessed generations leave for GB and not come back.

Avatar MIA wrote: »

Translink Belfast botanical to Cork £71.50 return. £64.50 single.

Irishrail Cork to Belfast €107.90. €53.95 single.

After conversion not much difference in costs for a return. If they can't afford that they should have worked harder in school

X 4 people = 428 euro eye watering

I have just been to berlin for £58 return

downcow wrote: »

X 4 people = 428 euro eye watering

If 4 people wish to travel together and have the driver pay for all of them, that is indeed eyewatering.

Individually though, you have had it shown to you that it costs about the same on either service.

Another silly argument demolished.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If 4 people wish to travel together and have the driver pay for all of them, that is indeed eyewatering.

Individually though, you have had it shown to you that it costs about the same on either service.

Another silly argument demolished.

I didn’t make the argument. A poster was sighting the fantastic rail system as practically the only way in which roi outshone NI. And the laugh is that it is actually more expensive than NI trains. My point was both are very poor.

But you are right. A silly argument

downcow wrote: »

X 4 people = 428 euro eye watering

I have just been to berlin for £58 return

What are you comparing cost of rail regardless whether the company was Irish or UK versus car?

Of course the car was going to be cheaper for 4 to chip in. But, what's your actual point?

BTW, do you realise you can get to Berlin so cheap because of the industry disruption brought about by an Irish company?

You're welcome :pac::pac::D

downcow wrote: »

I didn’t make the argument. A poster was sighting the fantastic rail system as practically the only way in which roi outshone NI. And the laugh is that it is actually more expensive than NI trains. My point was both are very poor.

But you are right. A silly argument

downcow wrote:

Well now a few people came up to visit last week from cork and they drive because they couldn’t afford the extortionate train fares

IamtheWalrus

A poll right now would be a landslide for remain in UK yes? Brexit won’t have made that much difference surely? Or have things changed.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Can we move away from the tangential argument about trains please.

IamtheWalrus wrote: »

A poll right now would be a landslide for remain in UK yes? Brexit won’t have made that much difference surely? Or have things changed.

A win for the status quo, probably. A landslide, who knows.

After a hard brexit, highly unlikely.

facehugger99

Avatar MIA wrote: »

I think you are underestimating them. Especially as they have witnessed generations leave for GB and not come back.

Maybe when generations are leaving for the ROI your argument might make sense.

blanch152

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

The people in the north voted by a majority to remain within the EU.

They look set to be dragged out of it against their wishes.

Goose and Gander springs to mind.

I would bet that few on that side of the debate would argue that Antrim could stay in the UK if it voted accordingly. Those crying about Northern Ireland being bound by the UK vote would soon change their tune.

Havockk

blanch152 wrote: »

I would bet that few on that side of the debate would argue that Antrim could stay in the UK if it voted accordingly. Those crying about Northern Ireland being bound by the UK vote would soon change their tune.

That would be in contravention of the GFA. As you all well know.

facehugger99 wrote: »

Maybe when generations are leaving for the ROI your argument might make sense.

Many do, mostly to Dublin down the M1. But, it's also close enough to commute home.

Economic activity has stagnated in NI due to the collapse in the Stormont. Although a subsidiary company of ours got a massive boost as a particular industry used up its budget before the end of march, but the economies are not comparable.

Annd9

facehugger99 wrote: »

Maybe when generations are leaving for the ROI your argument might make sense.

On a huge building site in North Dublin at the moment , I would guess 70% of the lads come across the border every morning .
That's just one site , have you ever seen how many northern reg cars are parked along the slip roads coming down the M1 ?
There are currently thousands coming over that border every day , but sure everything is just fine up north .

blanch152

Havockk wrote: »

That would be in contravention of the GFA. As you all well know.

The suggestion that Northern Ireland should be allowed stay in the EU because the vote there was to stay is in contravention of the referendum legislation, but that doesn't stop people making it.

I am just making the point that consistency of argument is a very difficult thing to find around here. Those who think the referendum legislation can be changed insist that the GFA is sacrosant, that is inconsistency.

blanch152 wrote: »

The suggestion that Northern Ireland should be allowed stay in the EU because the vote there was to stay is in contravention of the referendum legislation, but that doesn't stop people making it.

I am just making the point that consistency of argument is a very difficult thing to find around here. Those who think the referendum legislation can be changed insist that the GFA is sacrosant, that is inconsistency.

I think the point people are making is that the existing agreement (GFA) has to be honoured first by a special mechanism, regardless of what the rest of the UK decide to do. The GFA had separated northern Ireland already, so to speak.
The British found that mechanism themselves, but a northern Ireland political entity is opposed to it against the majority of people, against farming organisations and business organisations and the advice of security chiefs.

Who is being inconsistent I wonder?

Annd9 wrote: »

On a huge building site in North Dublin at the moment , I would guess 70% of the lads come across the border every morning .
That's just one site , have you ever seen how many northern reg cars are parked along the slip roads coming down the M1 ?
There are currently thousands coming over that border every day , but sure everything is just fine up north .

These endless stories back and forth prove little.

Lets look at the facts.

It is a minority of the people in the north who want to join ROI (and every pole or vote at any time in history has been the same). That would suggest people in NI think life is better in the north - would you agree with that?

A majority of those living in the South would like NI to come and join them (and every pole or vote at any time in history has been the same). That would suggest people in Southerners think life would be better with the addition of the North - would you agree with that?

So you can quote all the stats you like the majority of people on the island clearly want a bit of the action in the north - so it can't be that bad a place - would you agree with that.

Or of course alternatively people in both countries don't care about the financial aspect and are coming at this decision from a point of view of identity etc - either way those proposing a UI are screwed

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the point people are making is that the existing agreement (GFA) has to be honoured first by a special mechanism, regardless of what the rest of the UK decide to do. The GFA had separated northern Ireland already, so to speak.
The British found that mechanism themselves, but a northern Ireland political entity is opposed to it against the majority of people, against farming organisations and business organisations and the advice of security chiefs.

Who is being inconsistent I wonder?

Lets say you got your way and the backstop stayed in place. In a year or two GB leaves the CU.
Do you think the people of NI should have the right at that point to decide do they go with UK or stay in CU.
You see i'm consistent. I could go with what the majority in NI want (even that is keep the backstop) providing you apply that same right to choose when the arrangements are worked out and uk leaves CU - Howe are you with that??

downcow wrote: »

Lets say you got your way and the backstop stayed in place. In a year or two GB leaves the CU.
Do you think the people of NI should have the right at that point to decide do they go with UK or stay in CU.
You see i'm consistent. I could go with what the majority in NI want (even that is keep the backstop) providing you apply that same right to choose when the arrangements are worked out and uk leaves CU - Howe are you with that??

What? I can't make sense of that as a question. Sorry.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What? I can't make sense of that as a question. Sorry.

Lets try again.
Am i correct that you think the people in NI should get right to choose - You have said often enough that the people of NI want spaecial status, backstop, etc.

My question is - will you afford the same right to chose to the people of NI if the decide down the road that they want out of the CU? The biggest threat to us is that we are locked in and I want the right for the people to shoose

downcow wrote: »

Lets try again.
Am i correct that you think the people in NI should get right to choose - You have said often enough that the people of NI want spaecial status, backstop, etc.

My question is - will you afford the same right to chose to the people of NI if the decide down the road that they want out of the CU? The biggest threat to us is that we are locked in and I want the right for the people to shoose

The people did choose.
And the UK cannot take northern Ireland out of the EU because of the GFA. Simple as. They have been told this umpteen times.
Even if they crash out, and they have been told this too, they still have to meet their committments if they want a 3rd country arrangement with the EU.

Dytalus

downcow wrote: »

Lets try again.
Am i correct that you think the people in NI should get right to choose - You have said often enough that the people of NI want spaecial status, backstop, etc.

My question is - will you afford the same right to chose to the people of NI if the decide down the road that they want out of the CU? The biggest threat to us is that we are locked in and I want the right for the people to shoose

I'd be okay with that - people should have the right to decide how they're treated. At the very least, the parties they elect should decide that for them.

The problem comes with the nature of the UK and Northern Ireland's place in it. Removal from the customs union isn't within the power of Stormont (correct me if I am wrong), foreign affairs are decided by Westminster. The people of NI could well decide they want to leave by voting in a majority party that's anti-backstop but...then what?

It's not us you need to convince. It's Westminster. So long as the backstop prevents headaches for the UK as a whole, it's not impossible that the wishes of the people of Northern Ireland will be ignored. Just as they are being ignored now with the handling of Brexit.

Plus, as FrancieBrady mentioned above the UK is legally bound by the Good Friday Agreement. While it doesn't strictly require no hard border, everyone who's an expert on the document says that a hard border is against the GFA. If they renege on the GFA, they're breaking a legal agreement and the Ireland (via the EU) isn't going to be willing to sign any trade agreements without the matter being addressed. The GFA is the main reason NI is being held in the single market (and the UK as a whole being in the customs union), rather than any conspiracy from Dublin or Brussels. Your government had made a promise and they are being asked to keep it.

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

Lets try again.
Am i correct that you think the people in NI should get right to choose - You have said often enough that the people of NI want spaecial status, backstop, etc.

My question is - will you afford the same right to chose to the people of NI if the decide down the road that they want out of the CU? The biggest threat to us is that we are locked in and I want the right for the people to shoose

I think you are missing the point.

NI has a choice if there is a vote on a UI. It does not have a choice regarding the CU or the SM. They are decided by the UK Gov in Westminster and by the EU.

Even the Irish Gov does not have a choice with regard to any of these matters. The border poll will be held if the SoS for NI forms the opinion that a majority exist that it might be carried - no input from either Gov or the EU. The status of the backstop will be decided by the EU and the UK Gov as a result of any future trade agreement.

So as a NI citizen, you do not even get to vote for either of the two major UK parties that might well form the next Gov and that will get to make any of these decisions.

downcow wrote: »

These endless stories back and forth prove little.

Lets look at the facts.

It is a minority of the people in the north who want to join ROI (and every pole or vote at any time in history has been the same). That would suggest people in NI think life is better in the north - would you agree with that?

A majority of those living in the South would like NI to come and join them (and every pole or vote at any time in history has been the same). That would suggest people in Southerners think life would be better with the addition of the North - would you agree with that?

So you can quote all the stats you like the majority of people on the island clearly want a bit of the action in the north - so it can't be that bad a place - would you agree with that.

Or of course alternatively people in both countries don't care about the financial aspect and are coming at this decision from a point of view of identity etc - either way those proposing a UI are screwed

The logic used in the above is staggeringly poor (as well as obvious, so mods don't shoot me for not giving it time to detail).

Btw, there has been one poll that showed in favour of a UI. Just to show the error in your "facts".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland