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Charts ( up to T120 ) Winter / Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

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This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

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Meteorite58

The cooling down coming up over the next 5 days ( in general apart from a couple of brief interludes looking cooler after that also) .

Meteorite58

ECM showing big rainfall accumulations Tues into Weds along the S and SE

Meteorite58

I'm intrigued to know which way the weekend will go as regards wind strength.

ECM has been showing some windy weather and possibly very windy in the SW for a time on Sun, chopping and changing a bit.

GFS was showing very windy in the SW , dropped it and back again for very windy in the SW on Sun.

UKMO quite windy I would imagine more so in the W, NW

ARPEGE shows it to be a bit unsettled but just showing it up to 114 hrs atm

ICON showing some of the strongest charts I have ever seen for Ireland , but to be taken with more than a pinch of salt at this stage, more like a bag of it. A curiosity nonetheless. ICON has been showing a storm now for a few runs but taking different tracks and has been moving more N over the last few runs and getting stronger. For now I think just to note as could easily downgrade and drift more North. ICON has to be the outsider compared to the others. Will be interesting seeing the models come to some kind of a consensus near the time.

Met Eireanns wind prediction is nothing out of the ordinary at this stage but showing a bit windy in the SW early Sunday

Meteorite58

Some cold and very cold uppers showing up for Sun next . Most of the models showing wintry conditions and snow a possibility especially in Northern Counties.

Meteorite58

ECM beginning to show the same scenario for Sunday now over the last few runs. To me it looks like a front crossing the country late Sat / early Sun with wintry precipitation mixed in especially in Northern counties, windy weather following especially in the SW and looks like a day of wintry showers crossing the country with some of them showing up as snow , especially on high ground. Currently looks like Northern counties getting the most snow coverage which looks like it could fall on lower ground and could see some accumulations. Thundery looking also, should be some mighty cloudscapes .

Looks like a windchill in the middle of the day of about between 1 or 2C in the far S to -3C or so in the N on Sunday in that strong wind. Frost and icy roads following into Monday more so on the Eastern half of the country perhaps.

Meteorite58

ICON dropped the storm of the century that it was showing for Sunday, throwing out various windy spells like Sat but strangely showing just windy for Sunday on the current run.

ARPEGE showing it quite blustery on Sat and Quite windy on Sun especially on coasts.

GFS quite windy on Sat and not so much on Sun.

ECM looks the most consistent but cold easily change a bit closer to the weekend.

Monday next all the models are showing the potential for some very windy weather, some more so than others but a lot of uncertainty yet. The early days of next week looking very unsettled and wintry.

aisling86

Is everyone waiting for someone else to start a thread for Sunday onwards?

pauldry

We have to wait as a slight shift northwards means we just get breezy showery while a shift south and wintriness ensues. Wait for Kermit I say... or Meteorite

Meteorite58

IMO ECM looks windy Sunday but not showing a storm. ECM showing the Jet more or less over us keeping the LP's North of us . Shows it to get windy Sat evening into Sunday and very cold. Later Sat into Sun showing wintry showers with snow showers a possibility. To me at this stage does not look as widespread as last Sunday , possibly accumulations on lower ground in the NW, N and on hills and mountains elsewhere, more so the Western half of the country. At this stage looks more showery Sunday, possibly more in the way of hail and graupel and thunder possible . Should have sunny spells also , more the further S it would seem.

The ARPEGE storm is a mystery atm ? ARPEGE showing the Jet a bit further S. ATM the ECM is the one to follow for me.

aisling86

Definitely got my hopes up too early of a good storm!

ninebeanrows

Excellent info as usual Meteorite.

Just to highlight GEM is also backing up the ARPEGE

gem-0-66.png?12

Don't see any other models biting, very peculiar and worrisome for us forecasters

ninebeanrows

ECMWF still has a small cohort of ENS members showing extreme wind event (~10-15%)

Can't post images on here anymore...must be getting old.

Long gone are the days of imageshack easy copy n paste

Rebelbrowser

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

ECM

Sleety_rain, intrigued by your username. Of all the weather to name yourself in celebration of!

ninebeanrows

18z ARPEGE hold strong with storm low

ninebeanrows

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Sleety_rain, intrigued by your username. Of all the weather to name yourself in celebration of!

It's because I am so miserable:rolleyes:

sdanseo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

ECMWF still has a small cohort of ENS members showing extreme wind event (~10-15%)

Can't post images on here anymore...must be getting old.

Long gone are the days of imageshack easy copy n paste

Gyazo is your man. Easy as it gets.

Meteorite58

That is intriguing Sleety_Rain the way the ARPEGE is holding the track and intesity of that storm it is showing for Sunday. Four runs in a row without any significant deviation ?.GEM looks equally as strong but a bit further S and the UKMO is now showing a low to the North of us on Sunday , the plot thickens !

There is no doubt that when the Jet is this strong it can throw up a surprise at the last moment.

The ARPEGE is a good steady reliable model nearer an event and has outshone other models on a few occasions this year. Better than the GFS at short range , better than ICON and the EURO 4 I would think.It is not as good as the ECM 5 to 4 days out but comes into its own from about 3 to 2 days out I reckon.

Met Eireann did add that there is an uncertainty about how windy and wet it will be on Sunday.

Onwards to the next output in the morning.

What do ye reckon ?

aisling86 might get a storm yet !

vickers209

Eerily quiet this morning in here,
calm before the storm or gone from charts?

Oscar Bravo

From Met Eireann

A highly mobile Atlantic regime looks set to dominate our weather pattern through this weekend and the coming week. This will bring a sustained period of unsettled, often very windy and at times wintry weather with showers of hail, sleet and snow.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts/precipitation-pressure

A very strong Jet Stream will help to push some vigorous and potentially disruptive Atlantic weather systems over Ireland during the period.

Strong and blustery winds look likely to feature from Saturday (9th March) through to at least Wednesday (13th) with frequent gales at sea. Sea conditions will be very rough and there will be exceptionally high seas and swell in Atlantic coastal regions at times.

There is certainly potential for warnings to be issued over the coming days, so please do stay up to date with the Met Éireann forecast.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

https://www.met.ie/warnings

squarecircles

Tues 12-03-19

Time: 12.00

squarecircles

Tues: 12-03-19

Time : 15.00

Carol25

squarecircles wrote: »

Tues: 12-03-19

Time : 15.00

Thanks for those images, just wondering which model is showing those wind speeds? Certainly one to watch at the moment!

squarecircles

highdef

I'm reckoning that this storm will pass further to the north than forecast as they tend to do so more often than not. Having said that, it'll be a very windy period for many especially those further north and west and there's still plenty of scope for this system to track further south which would not be good news.....unless you want damaging winds in your area.

Depending on your location, some varieties of trees are coming into leaf now so the more leaf coverage on a tree, the more surface area which in turn means more chance of branches and limbs coming down. However, I think it will be another week or two before that could be a substantial factor when it comes to dangers with high winds.

For example, there's a large mixed hedge of elder and whitethorn at the side of my back garden. The elder is sprouting its leaves and there's a hint of green now evident in the hedge but the whitethorn is only budding. A lot of the native trees are only budding now as well but just thought I'd mention the subject of trees coming into leaf (as it's happening a bit earlier than normal due to unusual heat a couple of weeks ago) because if we get further forecasted severe storms in the second half of March and into April, then leaf coverage could be a major factor regarding risk of life when classifying the severity of any given storm.

squarecircles

latest 12z GFS

potential for a spell of strong winds Monday evening.

before more significant winds on Tuesday.

i think we might need a seperate thread for this potential storm monday/tuesday.

squarecircles

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick

West to northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h and gusts of 90 to 110kmh, strongest in coastal areas.
Valid: Sunday 10 March 2019 04:00 to Sunday 10 March 2019 23:59
Issued: Saturday 09 March 2019 13:00
Updated: Saturday 09 March 2019 14:05

typhoony

Latest gfs has Tuesday's low pressure a good bit further north, the north west still in the higher end of orange alert but doesn't look too bad everywhere else, could be some nasty thunderstorms though in that NW airflow

Little snowy old me

Between Met Eireann's u turn tonight regarding snowfall and the models downgrading Tuesday's storm potential, it looks like most of us are in for just cool blustery wet weather. A lot of hype from Glasnevin.

giveitholly

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Between Met Eireann's u turn tonight regarding snowfall and the models downgrading Tuesday's storm potential, it looks like most of us are in for just cool blustery wet weather. A lot of hype from Glasnevin.

When and what did they hype?