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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Bluefoam

Evil_Clown wrote: »

Has anyone had any experience these guys before, they charge a standard flat fee and publish the current highest offer on each property they are selling.
Seems a bit more transparent than other auctioneers

https://www.auctioneera.ie

I bid on a property recently with them. I didn't get it in the end, but it was very transparent. The bidding all happened in the last 2 minutes of the process... Their guy showing the place was good & wasn't on a big sales buzz... just pleasant and chatty. It is a very different way of doing things, it can be a little tense as you are on a countdown clock. Personally I had a put a genuine bid in, but due to the length of time before the end of the process, I went for a different property, because I needed some stability and couldn't wait & risk losing out on both.

L1011

Pussyhands wrote: »

I don't know who these people are tbh. You'd buy a mansion 20 minutes drive out the country.

With no broadband, a septic tank and another 20 minutes on the already unbearable drive though

dubrov

the butcher wrote: »

Could the crazies stop buying houses at these prices please?!

In fairness, they haven't sold a house in that estate anywhere near that price.

Pussyhands

L1011 wrote: »

With no broadband, a septic tank and another 20 minutes on the already unbearable drive though

There is broadband in places that are not in towns you know. Maybe not virgin but sky and eir fibre can be got.

As for septic tank...not sure what relevance that has?

And yeah, if you are commuting to Dublin from Maynooth it's absolutely terrible but clearly the commute isn't a problem if you're happy to spend 550k on a house with that commute. Sure you could swing down towards naas,it's not so much further and you could get something like this. https://www.daft.ie/kildare/houses-for-sale/naas/caureen-view-2-rathmore-west-eadestown-naas-kildare-1936505/

mkdon

dubrov wrote: »

In fairness, they haven't sold a house in that estate anywhere near that price.

what prices are they going for the 20k less?

are people actually commuting to and fro dublin daily horrible commute I would imagine

cnocbui

I met a girl who commutes from Ennis to Dublin to go to college because she couldn't find affordable accommodation there.

mkdon

cnocbui wrote: »

I met a girl who commutes from Ennis to Dublin to go to college because she couldn't find affordable accommodation there.

how long is the commute? daily?

The_Conductor

cnocbui wrote: »

I met a girl who commutes from Ennis to Dublin to go to college because she couldn't find affordable accommodation there.

I know a lady who works in the Revenue Commissioners who gets the train from Limerick to Dublin daily- and has done for a number of years. It doesn't mean its a life though- its more cruel and unusual punishment.

cnocbui

mkdon wrote: »

how long is the commute? daily?

She mentioned not getting home until after 8 PM sometimes due to late classes.

The_Conductor wrote: »

I know a lady who works in the Revenue Commissioners who gets the train from Limerick to Dublin daily- and has done for a number of years. It doesn't mean its a life though- its more cruel and unusual punishment.

That's for sure. Revenue have a major office in Limerick too, so that must gall.

[Deleted User]

The cost of those long commutes must be astronomical as well.

dor843088

L1011 wrote: »

With no broadband, a septic tank and another 20 minutes on the already unbearable drive though

Maynooth to dublin is an unbearable drive ? Wow

The_Conductor

dor843088 wrote: »

Maynooth to dublin is an unbearable drive ? Wow

It can be a half an hour to even get to the M4 at peak times- never mind the M4 itself- which on a bad morning can take an hour or more to get as far as the M50. My kids go to school in Maynooth- thankfully I don't have to drive into Dublin very often.

donspeekinglesh

The_Conductor wrote: »

It can be a half an hour to even get to the M4 at peak times- never mind the M4 itself- which on a bad morning can take an hour or more to get as far as the M50. My kids go to school in Maynooth- thankfully I don't have to drive into Dublin very often.

If you're on the Moyglare side of the town the N3 is only 20 minutes away, and while it's gotten worse it's never as bad as the M4/N4.

Once this part of the estate is complete the train station will be within walking distance, and the train only takes 40 minutes to Connolly.

And it might seem a lot (and it's more than we paid in 2008 elsewhere in the estate), the houses are selling quick enough. Every time I walk the dogs down the new roads more and more houses are complete and occupied.

The builders were clever during the downturn, kept plugging away at a few houses a year, never went bust. Might be a decade late finishing the estate, but they're very nearly there.

Pussyhands

donspeekinglesh wrote: »

If you're on the Moyglare side of the town the N3 is only 20 minutes away, and while it's gotten worse it's never as bad as the M4/N4.

Once this part of the estate is complete the train station will be within walking distance, and the train only takes 40 minutes to Connolly.

And it might seem a lot (and it's more than we paid in 2008 elsewhere in the estate), the houses are selling quick enough. Every time I walk the dogs down the new roads more and more houses are complete and occupied.

The builders were clever during the downturn, kept plugging away at a few houses a year, never went bust. Might be a decade late finishing the estate, but they're very nearly there.

Train is large enough. You'll get a seat on the way in in the morning but by the time you arrive you'll have arses in your face from everyone standing around you.

Then on the way back you'll be packed like sardines, surrounded by people on their phones and listening to music and tv series, humidity through the roof, having to shuffle on and off to let people on/off. Zero comfort at all and I feel sorry for anyone doing that commute as a lifestyle and not a short term thing.

After getting off the train then it'll be 20 minute walk to your house. It all sounds lovely in theory, short walk to the train into Dublin but the reality is very much different.

donspeekinglesh

Pussyhands wrote: »

Train is large enough. You'll get a seat on the way in in the morning but by the time you arrive you'll have arses in your face from everyone standing around you.

Then on the way back you'll be packed like sardines, surrounded by people on their phones and listening to music and tv series, humidity through the roof, having to shuffle on and off to let people on/off. Zero comfort at all and I feel sorry for anyone doing that commute as a lifestyle and not a short term thing.

After getting off the train then it'll be 20 minute walk to your house. It all sounds lovely in theory, short walk to the train into Dublin but the reality is very much different.

I know what it's like, I did it for years, and I'd have no problem doing it again if I was in a job close to Connolly. It was no worse than the Dublin Bus I used to get living in Santry.

rosmoke

We are talking about 2h30min commute a day as being acceptable, let's build more houses in the middle of nowhere instead of apartments in Dublin .... cause this has been going great so far.

Bluefoam

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/central-bank-mortgage-exemptions-squeeze-buyers-out-of-the-market-37847097.html

Mortgage exemptions squeeze buyers out of the market

I read the headline this morning... Which is just the usual tabloid bull**** from the independent.

The reality is that people with money are able to afford property that people without money cannot, due to market forces.

Bob24

Bluefoam wrote: »

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/central-bank-mortgage-exemptions-squeeze-buyers-out-of-the-market-37847097.html

Mortgage exemptions squeeze buyers out of the market

I read the headline this morning... Which is just the usual tabloid bull**** from the independent.

The reality is that people with money are able to afford property that people without money cannot, due to market forces.

If they’re not happy with the effect of exemptions, they can campaign for exemptions to be phased out for all new mortgages to be subject to the current macro prudential rules.

Pussyhands

Bluefoam wrote: »

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/central-bank-mortgage-exemptions-squeeze-buyers-out-of-the-market-37847097.html

Mortgage exemptions squeeze buyers out of the market

I read the headline this morning... Which is just the usual tabloid bull**** from the independent.

The reality is that people with money are able to afford property that people without money cannot, due to market forces.

People with money can afford it but people had money back in 07 too.

If a recession comes and you lose your job, having money now isn't much good is it?

Does it really matter if you have a 350k mortgage or a 500k mortgage if you lose your job?

Bob24

Pussyhands wrote: »

People with money can afford it but people had money back in 07 too.

Big difference is that the definition of having money to buy in 2007 and having money to buy in 2019 are not the same. For exemple no hope of a 100% mortgages today.

This is why the macro-prodential rules are important and shouldn’t be tempered with: they are changing the definition of “having money to buy” and thus reducing overall lending risk.

Of course it doesn’t mean individuals can’t be hit with bad circumstances, but it does mean that as a whole the risk for society and the economy is lower.

Zenify

Does anybody know how many properties are currently for sale compared to this time last year in Dublin?

browne_rob5

Zenify wrote: »

Does anybody know how many properties are currently for sale compared to this time last year in Dublin?

This article from December 2018 mentions, "We now have about 2,000 more properties for sale in Dublin than we did in 2017."

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-experts-predict-steady-but-unspectacular-property-growth-in-2019-1.3718587

Nobodysrobots

"House prices here not overvalued despite 83pc jump since the crash - EU report"

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-here-not-overvalued-despite-83pc-jump-since-the-crash-eu-report-37863904.html

Have to say I agree, based on the health of the economy, current salary levels, unemployment %, etc. What happened from 2008-2012 was an anomaly, not the standard. There won't be a drop to those levels unless unemployment/emigration rates spike and/or access to credit dries up again.

Pussyhands

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

"House prices here not overvalued despite 83pc jump since the crash - EU report"

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-here-not-overvalued-despite-83pc-jump-since-the-crash-eu-report-37863904.html

Have to say I agree, based on the health of the economy, current salary levels, unemployment %, etc. What happened from 2008-2012 was an anomaly, not the standard. There won't be a drop to those levels unless unemployment/emigration rates spike and/or access to credit dries up again.

How can they not be overvalued when there is a housing shortage?

Zenify

browne_rob5 wrote: »

This article from December 2018 mentions, "We now have about 2,000 more properties for sale in Dublin than we did in 2017."

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/property-experts-predict-steady-but-unspectacular-property-growth-in-2019-1.3718587

Just wanted to see if anyone has more updated figures as my alerts for properties has been going nuts the last few weeks.

Kidkinobe

Zenify wrote: »

Just wanted to see if anyone has more updated figures as my alerts for properties has been going nuts the last few weeks.

There was a huge number of listings added over a few days last week, it jumped about 700 within a few days for all of Ireland..But it is coming into spring which is the time the market picks up again or when buyers start looking and sellers start listing. And there are also a huge number of new builds/estates coming on to the market over the coming 6 months in Dublin and the commuting zone.

Nobodysrobots

Pussyhands wrote: »

How can they not be overvalued when there is a housing shortage?

The shortage factor is priced into the market. This applies to any asset or tradeable commodity (food, cars, property, shares, labour, etc). E.g. there's a shortage of construction and software workers, so they are paid a higher salary. There's an oversupply of unskilled labour, so they're paid a lower salary. Another example, Red Beryl is a more scarce gemstone than diamonds, so it's priced higher. That doesn't necessarily mean it's overvalued though does it?

If you think this government has the competence to properly address the shortage by ramping up supply to levels that meet current and future demand, you're having a laugh.

Kidkinobe

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

The shortage factor is priced into the market. This applies to any asset or tradeable commodity (food, cars, property, shares, labour, etc). E.g. there's a shortage of construction and software workers, so they are paid a higher salary. There's an oversupply of unskilled labour, so they're paid a lower salary. Another example, Red Beryl is a more scarce gemstone than diamonds, so it's priced higher. That doesn't necessarily mean it's overvalued though does it?

If you think this government has the competence to properly address the shortage by ramping up supply to levels that meet current and future demand, you're having a laugh.

Yeah but you can't suddenly decide to start making red beryl to increase the supply where as you can build a load more houses, should the will and the money be there to build more houses of course.

Pussyhands

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

The shortage factor is priced into the market. This applies to any asset or tradeable commodity (food, cars, property, shares, labour, etc). E.g. there's a shortage of construction and software workers, so they are paid a higher salary. There's an oversupply of unskilled labour, so they're paid a lower salary. Another example, Red Beryl is a more scarce gemstone than diamonds, so it's priced higher. That doesn't necessarily mean it's overvalued though does it?

If you think this government has the competence to properly address the shortage by ramping up supply to levels that meet current and future demand, you're having a laugh.

There is no shortage of cars.

Some shares are overpriced for sure, one of the worlds best investors agrees.

Buffett suggested that Apple is too expensive at current prices for him to be interested in picking up more shares.

Graham

Pussyhands wrote: »

There is no shortage of cars.

Some shares are overpriced for sure, one of the worlds best investors agrees.

Buffett suggested that Apple is too expensive at current prices for him to be interested in picking up more shares.

Being too expensive to consider investing is not the same as something being overpriced. It's just as likely the investor thinks there is limited scope for price appreciation.

To borrow a quote from the sage

Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.