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MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

BobbyBobberson

Looks like its happening. What is the impact in all honesty?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097405369582866434

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murphaph

I would like to see many more defections to a centrist party, not just because of Brexit but because the UK's entire political system needs a reboot with a dumping of FPTP coming very high on the list of priorities. I believe the only way this will ever happen is if a large centrist party is formed.

FPTP prevents this happening through the electoral process as a vote for the existing centrist party, the Liberal Democrats, is seen was wasted in so many constituencies. You vote Labour to keep the Tories out and vice versa, voting for who you hate less of the two main parties. Awful system.

Mass defections of elected centrist MPs however allows such a party to be started and have an effect without relying on voters. It's the only way the UK will break away from FPTP I think. The IG could (if it could attract say 50 MPs) be seen as a very real alternative come the next election, purely because they would already be a "large party".

I would have hoped for some more courage from those centrist MPs, but not sure we are going to see it. I must say the women are the ones with the balls in all this, shamefully low percentage of defecting male MPs given they outnumber women in the HoC at large.

is_that_so

TIG might help with that, especially if it grows in size.

Gbear

Harry Palmr wrote: »

He isn't joining the non party though.

There is talk of a confidence and supply proposition from the "11", presumably to seek to undermine the DUP

An extension and a referendum on May's Deal or Remain would surely be the conditions they would offer her.

Although just because the DUP are undermined, doesn't mean her bill would get through.

Still, with another referendum being ignored, we don't really know how the commons would vote for it.

The ERG would presumably all oppose it, so you'd have to get others to make up the numbers.

Water John

The IG are already having influence as both TM and JC are now having to weigh the real risk of further defections to the centre. So JC was talking about 2nd Ref, for the first time, also Cabinet Ministers and others pushing for No Deal to be off the table.

Harry Palmr

He isn't joining the non party though.

There is talk of a confidence and supply proposition from the "11", presumably to seek to undermine the DUP

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

9th Labour MP gone, Ian Austin

citing anti-antisemitism and a "broken" Labour Party

markodaly

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I don't know how you resell globalisation to those left behind, but telling them they're stupid certainly isn't the way to go about it.

I never called them stupid, I said they were wrong and deluded.
Telling the people what they want to hear is populism ala Trump or Farage. Corbyn is a populist, pure and simple.

markodaly

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

I see you keep dodging my question about Corbyns position on Brexit and the youth vote, so I will ask again.

Why would the younger electorate, who are pro Remain and pro a Peoples vote, vote for Corbyn when he is a Brexiter at heart and refuses to back a Peoples vote?

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So people who support Brexit are going to change to remain after a recession? I doubt it. Nationalism triumphs over economics. This country is proof of that.

If things don’t work out the brexiters will blame the EU for unfair terms, adopt a Battle of Britain mentality, cheer any deal with any foreign country no matter how small, and a high percentage of the remainers will likely emigrate if they can. The politics and the population itself will change, as it did here post 1921.

No. They'll blame May for being a remainer and thus the architect of the failure. That narrative is already warmed up and being trotted out every time somebody talks about a delay. Or any setback really.

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So you are now supporting the labour position? Corbyn is a political genius. He’ll let the Tories implode and then switch to remain and clean up?

Good Lord no. He's an idealogue. There's no revolution without bloodshed. And it's not exactly genius. A blind man could see it a mile out. So the faithful will stay the course even if it's at the expense of jobs and economic armageddon. But the duopoly suggests he gets in, even if it's as a minority. But it's no prize. There'll be as much political instability as economic.

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So you are now supporting the labour position? Corbyn is a political genius. He’ll let the Tories implode and then switch to remain and clean up?

How can you switch to remain after a hard Brexit? Do you think the EU will roll out the welcome mat?

Sam Russell

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So you are now supporting the labour position? Corbyn is a political genius. He’ll let the Tories implode and then switch to remain and clean up?

No-one said it will be Corbyn reaping the benefits of a Tory implosion.

Could be, but it might not be.

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

Thanks. I'm actually surprised that the question was asked tbh. I'm sure there will be a slight delay while the reality/dreams interface collapses under the weight of empty shelves and no chicken in KFC, but when it does, the sound of cognitive dissonance exploding heads around the UK will probably be heard in outer space. And then will come the fury and that will be directed mainly at the Tories. I don't expect Labour to get off lightly either, but they will be able to do a Pontius Pilate and say it wasn't their brexit.

So you are now supporting the labour position? Corbyn is a political genius. He’ll let the Tories implode and then switch to remain and clean up?

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They are the government. A hard Brexit will hammer Britain's economy and they, rightly, will be blamed.

So people who support Brexit are going to change to remain after a recession? I doubt it. Nationalism triumphs over economics. This country is proof of that.

If things don’t work out the brexiters will blame the EU for unfair terms, adopt a Battle of Britain mentality, cheer any deal with any foreign country no matter how small, and a high percentage of the remainers will likely emigrate if they can. The politics and the population itself will change, as it did here post 1921.

Gbear

prawnsambo wrote: »

Thanks. I'm actually surprised that the question was asked tbh. I'm sure there will be a slight delay while the reality/dreams interface collapses under the weight of empty shelves and no chicken in KFC, but when it does, the sound of cognitive dissonance exploding heads around the UK will probably be heard in outer space. And then will come the fury and that will be directed mainly at the Tories. I don't expect Labour to get off lightly either, but they will be able to do a Pontius Pilate and say it wasn't their brexit.

They already believed that their problems were down to fantasy reasons related to the EU.

Why will that change post-Brexit? They'll shift their ire where they're told to, whether that's the mean EU punishing the UK, or the no good scroungers, or the foreigners, or people with silly hats.

If anything, I think, as it usually does, the increasing difficulties will breed more and more extremism and reward ever more dangerous populist nonsense.

prawnsambo

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They are the government. A hard Brexit will hammer Britain's economy and they, rightly, will be blamed.

Thanks. I'm actually surprised that the question was asked tbh. I'm sure there will be a slight delay while the reality/dreams interface collapses under the weight of empty shelves and no chicken in KFC, but when it does, the sound of cognitive dissonance exploding heads around the UK will probably be heard in outer space. And then will come the fury and that will be directed mainly at the Tories. I don't expect Labour to get off lightly either, but they will be able to do a Pontius Pilate and say it wasn't their brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

?

How are the Tories decimated if there's a hard Brexit? They have most of the Brexit vote.

They are the government. A hard Brexit will hammer Britain's economy and they, rightly, will be blamed.

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

Labour polling did not look good when the election was called. In fact that's why it was called in the first place. So I don't know why you're saying that people were misguided about their prospects, they didn't look great at the time. And I remember looking at tracking after the election and Labour were gaining steadily coming up to polling day.

Polling is not looking good for Labour again. But if there's a hard brexit, I'd confidently say that the Tories will be decimated. Even TM's deal could clobber them as nobody will be happy with it. So the next election is Labour's to lose as far as I can predict.

?

How are the Tories decimated if there's a hard Brexit? They have most of the Brexit vote.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Between him being confirmed as Labour leader in 2015 and the 2017 general election being called we were told repeatedly about what a joke shop Corbyn was, how hard left policies in the UK had no base of support and how we was expected to be crushed at the ballot box.

He got 40%.

Now it’s the same stuff again about how he’ll be crushed at the ballot box with explanations that his 40% in 2017 was because of this, that and the other. Anything but an endorsement of his manifesto and campaign. Fair enough.

Labour polling did not look good when the election was called. In fact that's why it was called in the first place. So I don't know why you're saying that people were misguided about their prospects, they didn't look great at the time. And I remember looking at tracking after the election and Labour were gaining steadily coming up to polling day.

Polling is not looking good for Labour again. But if there's a hard brexit, I'd confidently say that the Tories will be decimated. Even TM's deal could clobber them as nobody will be happy with it. So the next election is Labour's to lose as far as I can predict.

LuckyLloyd

Between him being confirmed as Labour leader in 2015 and the 2017 general election being called we were told repeatedly about what a joke shop Corbyn was, how hard left policies in the UK had no base of support and how we was expected to be crushed at the ballot box.

He got 40%.

Now it’s the same stuff again about how he’ll be crushed at the ballot box with explanations that his 40% in 2017 was because of this, that and the other. Anything but an endorsement of his manifesto and campaign. Fair enough.

An Ciarraioch

Amirani wrote: »

I think some of that 65% is as much anti-Tory as pro-Labour. It's quite hard to separate the two. I know if I was voting in UK elections at the moment, I'd almost certainly be voting Labour, but this would mainly be to reduce the chances of a Conservative winning.

You do wonder how much of the figure comes from ex-Lib Dem supporters who moved to Labour after the student fees fiasco, but have no permanent political leanings.

Amirani

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

I think some of that 65% is as much anti-Tory as pro-Labour. It's quite hard to separate the two. I know if I was voting in UK elections at the moment, I'd almost certainly be voting Labour, but this would mainly be to reduce the chances of a Conservative winning.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

But since then the youth, who are much more in favour of remain, feel that they are being ignored. Are you sure that these youth will simply continue to vote for him?

And the last line could very well be right. I do believe that people want something different, and were looking to Corbyn for that. The reason he hasn't continued to poll well is that it is clear, now that he got all these people politically engaged, that he is not really concerned with changing things for the better, only to change things to suit his agenda.

So get in a competent, charismatic leader, one that not only has policies but can articulate them and hold those that fail to meet them to account and you are onto a winner.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Centrism, as you put it, may well be dead. However, if you think that a Momentum driven Labour will be elected in a FPTP system then I'm afraid you're in for a shock. Corbyn and his policies are the Tories' trump card.

He got 65% of the vote from under 40s. This is not in fact normal - although some people move to the right as they age the Labour Party has never had that level of support, and nor is 39 that young.

And there are strong economic and structural reasons why this will continue.

So its either Corbyn or somebody like Corbyn. Asking people to suck it up because of globalisation, is not a winning strategy.

LuckyLloyd

prawnsambo wrote: »

I did quote something broader and more concrete. The number of complaints that Labour said they received and the outcome of at least some of those complaints. And coincidentally that number was almost exactly the same number that the police services say they received in a broadly similar time frame.

But you don't have to look at one tweet or even a few. You can do a seacrh on any of those who have complained for keywords like 'israel' and you find that there are a disproportionate number of people (very many Labour supporters) asking these MPs to condemn various outrages carried out by the Israeli government. And you wonder why. Because it's surely not because they're Jewish, is it?

Clearly we disagree on this and neither of us is convincing the other.

Newsbeat

I wouldn't vote for labour because they have Dianne abbot as shadow home secretary.

Professor Moriarty

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Again. And again. And again. Centrism as it once was is dead.

And 65% of under 40 year olds supported Labour in the last election, fully aware of the manifesto. That’s the centre.

Centrism, as you put it, may well be dead. However, if you think that a Momentum driven Labour will be elected in a FPTP system then I'm afraid you're in for a shock. Corbyn and his policies are the Tories' trump card.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Excuse me, I posted a simple unambiguous summary of what the issue is supposed to be and how it was adjudicated by two inquiries. Because it is constantly the case that people talk about an antisemitism issue within labour without offering anything broad or concrete. Pulling individual tweets out for analysis doesn't prove anything as you can surely pull individual tweets or social media posts from British citizens every hour of the day that demonstrate hate or racism or whatever. Fundamentally, there have been allegations that prompted inquiries that adjudged no material fundamental issue. Allegations that do get logged get investigated: hence the examples of internal sanction.

I did quote something broader and more concrete. The number of complaints that Labour said they received and the outcome of at least some of those complaints. And coincidentally that number was almost exactly the same number that the police services say they received in a broadly similar time frame.

But you don't have to look at one tweet or even a few. You can do a seacrh on any of those who have complained for keywords like 'israel' and you find that there are a disproportionate number of people (very many Labour supporters) asking these MPs to condemn various outrages carried out by the Israeli government. And you wonder why. Because it's surely not because they're Jewish, is it?

LuckyLloyd

markodaly wrote: »

Centrism seems to be a code word for Globalisation and free markets. Those that want it dead want to cut themselves off from the world and recreate an idyllic nostalgic version of the past. The 1970's for the Corbynistas or the 1950s for the Tory Brexiters.

Both are wrong and deluded.

We can continue labeling people wrong and deluded all we like and people can continue trotting out old electoral cliches like 'reclaim the centre ground to win'. Meanwhile huge swathes of people in the UK are becoming increasingly poorer, with a retraction of public services and a creeping loss of hope. And all they hear is about how unemployment is down and jobs are being created: cherry picked stats that are at odds with lived reality. We're approaching a decade of continued austerity and year on year retraction of state services in the UK. Half way through that cycle those voting had already started to listen for different solutions and different messaging.

I understand the reality. Globalisation necessarily implies a redistribution of certain types of jobs and economic activity from the West to developing economies. The process has just accelerated rapidly over a two decade period. And unfortunately while that was happening, politicians lied to the people to make them go to war and were caught out unambiguously on it. You're not selling New Labour or One Nation Conservatism to these people. They're not buying it and - if I'm honest - I can't blame them.

Hence why Labour can print a throwback socialism manifesto with a slogan like #forthemanynotthefew and have Corbyn in Tv town halls telling business owners that they have to bear a higher minimum wage because it's the right thing to do and gain 40%, 40%! of the electorate on it.

I don't know how you resell globalisation to those left behind, but telling them they're stupid certainly isn't the way to go about it.

quokula

markodaly wrote: »

You keep repeating the same debunked theory that the centre is dead. The centre is holding in many countries, and not in others. That does not mean we are in 1929 Europe again.

Young people grow up and get older and get more conservative, they will not always vote Labour.

Again, why would young people vote for Labour when they are Pro Remain and Pro Peoples vote, while Corbyn wont grant them one.

How young are these young people that need to grow up? Because Labour came out on top for the entire working age population at the last election, you have to get into retirees before Conservatives take a lead.

markodaly

Centrism seems to be a code word for Globalisation and free markets. Those that want it dead want to cut themselves off from the world and recreate an idyllic nostalgic version of the past. The 1970's for the Corbynistas or the 1950s for the Tory Brexiters.

Both are wrong and deluded.