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MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

BobbyBobberson

Looks like its happening. What is the impact in all honesty?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097405369582866434

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LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1098260076857565185

Is the trickle set to become a flood?

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The IG doesnt seem ideologically pure. The conservative defectors are definitely remainers. The Labour defectors don’t like Corbyn.

If May re proposes her last deal how will they vote? Remember it’s a vote for Brexit, even if softer than the ERG would prefer.

I'm pretty certain all the Labour defectors are full fat remainers. Like Chuka Umunna for example. He's been banging the drum for a second referendum for a long time. All of them mentioned the Labour position on brexit as a reason for leaving.

Leroy42

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

The IG doesnt seem ideologically pure. The conservative defectors are remainers. The Labour defectors don’t like Corbyn.

But maybe that is the start of a compromise type party, one that can deal with the changing nature of the world rather than sticking to pre-defined lines. So positions are made based on an understanding of the topic rather than an ideological bent.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Inquitus wrote: »

There's around 4 committed labour leavers, who will vote with the ERG, in order to counterbalance that you would need 9-10 more Tories to defect to the IG in order to reduce the Gov to minority status.

The IG doesnt seem ideologically pure. The conservative defectors are definitely remainers. The Labour defectors don’t like Corbyn.

If May re proposes her last deal how will they vote? Remember it’s a vote for Brexit, even if softer than the ERG would prefer.

ancapailldorcha

Cryptopagan wrote: »

118 Tory MPs voted against May’s deal, so unless she somehow winds up with 110+ majority, it won’t solve anything. From a Tory point of view, a snap election is an idea so bad even May wouldn’t consider it.

Some of the stuff suggested here (May calling a snap election, a Labour coalition with someone other than the leader as PM, and that old favorite SF taking their seats) is every bit as outlandish as Brexiteer fantasies of a freewheeling free trading Britain.

She wasn't aware of this at the time. In 2017, she was hoping to be free of the fanatics and hard Brexiteers in her party. Instead she added the DUP to their number.

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

New parties often get high percentages. The question is will people waste their vote. If they do labour is doomed.

Yeah. And the history in the UK is not good for new parties. As it is here. But I don't think we've seen such a hole opening in the middle ground as we've seen in the UK. They need to add more MPs and then consolidate and produce some policies.

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

Very early days. There may well be more Tory defections. In fact I'd bet that there will be. But the Labour polling is indeed shocking. Not only have they lost MPs, but they seem to have lost a huge swathe of popular support as well. It's a swiftly evolving situation, so I suppose popcorn is called for.

New parties often get high percentages. The question is will people waste their vote. If they do labour is doomed.

prawnsambo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

The anti semitism stuff is something to hide behind for the (ex) Labour MPs, they seem to be afraid to call out the leadership on Brexit, which should be the real issue for their departure.

They did call them out on brexit. It was in their resignation letters and reiterated at their presser. Here's what Luciana Berger said:

...as the Labour party today refuses to put my constituents and our country before party interest

Or Chris Leslie:

The evidence of Labour’s betrayal on Europe is now visible for all to see … Choosing to stand by while our constituents’ lives and future opportunities are hurt by Brexit is a fundamental violation of Labour’s traditional values.

Gavin Shuker:

Today, the Labour party is riddled with antisemitism, it presents a threat to our national security and it’s perfectly content to enable the hard Tory Brexit that will directly and negatively affect people in Luton.

I could go on, but I don't think it's necessary.

Water John

A LB coalition after the next election is a fairly likely possibility. I would presume other parties would not want Corbyn as PM.
Here, the PDs under O'Malley went into coalition with their nemisis Haughey.
After an election, it's all about the numbers.

Cryptopagan

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The point of the 2017 election was that she would increase her majority and free herself from the likes of the ERG.

118 Tory MPs voted against May’s deal, so unless she somehow winds up with 110+ majority, it won’t solve anything. From a Tory point of view, a snap election is an idea so bad even May wouldn’t consider it.

Some of the stuff suggested here (May calling a snap election, a Labour coalition with someone other than the leader as PM, and that old favorite SF taking their seats) is every bit as outlandish as Brexiteer fantasies of a freewheeling free trading Britain.

Water John

An interesting point about the Independent Group is that the majority of its MPs are women.

BonnieSituation

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The anti - semitism stuff.

And can you tell me how it's fabricated?

I've no skin in the game either way and generally wouldn't be one to jump to conclusions but there seems to be a fair amount more going on than "he said, she said".

Where's your evidence of fabrication?

BonnieSituation

kunst nugget wrote: »

Presumably they're taking about the claims of antisemitism that plague the Labour party.

I presume that too. But it's nice when the OP explains themselves. Which they have done just below you.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

HAve you some evidence that this is fabricated? Because there's plenty of direct evidence that it isn't. Unless you think the tweets I posted this morning had no bearing on the issue despite being directed at Jewish people and invoking Palestine.

The anti semitism stuff is something to hide behind for the (ex) Labour MPs, they seem to be afraid to call out the leadership on Brexit, which should be the real issue for their departure.

It's a bit like Bertie suddenly stepping down the day his former secretary was due before the tribunal to explain the bizzare money movements years earlier.

Everyone knew the game was up for Bertie but he kept telling us he was planning on stepping down anyway.

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

HAve you some evidence that this is fabricated? Because there's plenty of direct evidence that it isn't.

I wouldn't bother. Strangely for an Irish site there's a rabid bunch of Labour supporters that don't want to hear anything bad about Labour or Corbyn, no matter how much evidence there is to the contrary.

ancapailldorcha

loyatemu wrote: »

even if TM went for an election and won a majority, how many of them would vote for her deal? The ERG are a party within a party at this stage and do what they like.

The point of the 2017 election was that she would increase her majority and free herself from the likes of the ERG.

Larbre34

Minority Government on its own isn't enough to enable a course change, not as long as Labour remains so factionalised. You have the Kate Hoey types (hard Brexit) the John McDonnell types (soft Brexit and socialist revolution while we're at it) the Hilary Benn types (BRINO /remain but you'll never take my Labour Party away) and then those that are still agonising whether to join the Umanna Berger group.

Simply hobbling the Govts power to continue its current course, or even gaining a Parliamentary directed extension to A50 are no guarantees of a united decision on what way to proceed. I don't think even a general election would do that as theres no way Labour could agree a manifesto and its hard left ordinary members would be agitating for deselections and a cleansing of centrists. Not to mention that lack of time for the 10 new indos plus whoever joins them to build policy.

A fine mess.

loyatemu

even if TM went for an election and won a majority, how many of them would vote for her deal? The ERG are a party within a party at this stage and do what they like.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The anti - semitism stuff.

HAve you some evidence that this is fabricated? Because there's plenty of direct evidence that it isn't. Unless you think the tweets I posted this morning had no bearing on the issue despite being directed at Jewish people and invoking Palestine.

Edit: Sorry, 'evidence' is the wrong word, 'reasons' for thinking this would be better.

Inquitus

Larbre34 wrote: »

It does need a complete rethink, but right now there aren't the numbers either to take it forward or to roll it back. These 10 independents (and I shall use the collective noun Blairites) cannot change that without dozens more joining them.

There's around 4 committed labour leavers, who will vote with the ERG, in order to counterbalance that you would need 9-10 more Tories to defect to the IG in order to reduce the Gov to minority status.

Leroy42

Larbre34 wrote: »

It does need a complete rethink, but right now there aren't the numbers either to take it forward or to roll it back. These 10 independents (and I shall use the collective noun Blairites) cannot change that without dozens more joining them.

Well I suppose I agree in that it doesn't need a rethink, in so much as it appears that a think never happened in the 1st place.

They simply cannot deliver the Brexit that the country felt they would get. Its currently impossible due to many factors but at this stage time is the main one.

The UK need to go off and think hard about what they what and what they are prepared to sacrifice to get it. Even now, Farage, JRM etc have no actual details of what Brexit means.

Freedom! As if the UK are somehow captive. It is a nonsense.

LuckyLloyd

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What was the fabrication?

The anti - semitism stuff.

Larbre34

It does need a complete rethink, but right now there aren't the numbers either to take it forward or to roll it back. These 10 independents (and I shall use the collective noun Blairites) cannot change that without dozens more joining them.

Leroy42

Inquitus wrote: »

1 more defection from the Tories and if SF sat it would be a minority Gov, as it stands 5 more Tories is the magic number.

The UK parliament does not need SF to sort out this mess.

They need politicians to grow a pair and tell the people the truth. That they were lied to during the campaign, that whether or not Brexit is a good idea, the UK is simply not ready for it at the moment. That it has all been handled terribly and that it needs a complete rethink.

Inquitus

1 more defection from the Tories and if SF sat it would be a minority Gov, as it stands 5 more Tories is the magic number.

Harry Palmr

That PC went much better than the ex Labour one in terms of heartfelt but coherent commentary about the party they have left. There are clearly plenty of others who feel likewise about the ERG infiltration of the Tory Party.

Rjd2

Inquitus wrote: »

The have been out in the cold for longer than FF were after driving the country off a cliff! Maybe its time to forgive them!

You need someone dynamic and exciting leading the party, Vince Cable is most certainly not. Party needs new leadership desperately.

Rjd2

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM will not be leading the Tories in the next election.

Well not according to her anyway, so its probably rubbish!

But I cannot see the Tories wanting to be going into another election with her at the helm.

She said she would not lead them into another election, but was a bit all over the shop when it comes to a snap election.

The Tories don't want another election simply because its not worth the risk. Best case scenario is they win another 4 or 5 seats, however its also quite possible that Corbyn gains power.

Inquitus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Lib Dems are still tainted by their time in coalition with the Conservatives, especially the tuition fees fiasco.

The have been out in the cold for longer than FF were after driving the country off a cliff! Maybe its time to forgive them!

quokula

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A lot of people will never forgive them for facilitating the Tories in saddling them with £40k of student debt.

It was the ultimate sell out of their base. All for an AV referendum that had no chance of passing.

And half of the new independent group voted for that increase in tuition fees, either directly as members of the Tories, or in the case of Joan Ryan, directly opposed her own Labour party's position to vote in favour of it too.