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MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

BobbyBobberson

Looks like its happening. What is the impact in all honesty?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097405369582866434

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Franz Von Peppercorn

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The first poll gives a virtual repeat of 1983:

Con 363
Lab 164
SNP 43
IG 41
NI 18
Lib Dem 16
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

I really doubt the IG will get any of those seats. They need recognisable candidates. But the vote will be split.

marno21

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Update - 3% from both Tories and Lib Dems, 7% Labour, 1% presumably Other:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098196101042196482

Wow. Tories with an 8% lead even with their current level of incompetence. Corbyn providing the firm opposition equivalent to playing snooker with a rope

Tom Mann Centuria

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

With those kind of figures the tories could romp home in the next GE. I don’t think the IG will take a labour seat but they could split the vote to allow tories win in any constituency.

May has effectively been saved.

Mission accomplished for Chuka et al. If that's the case.

An Ciarraioch

The first poll gives a virtual repeat of 1983:

Con 363
Lab 164
SNP 43
IG 41
NI 18
Lib Dem 16
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1

Franz Von Peppercorn

With those kind of figures the tories could romp home in the next GE. I don’t think the IG will take a labour seat but they could split the vote to allow tories win in any constituency.

May has effectively been saved.

An Ciarraioch

Update - 3% from both Tories and Lib Dems, 7% Labour, 1% presumably Other:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098196101042196482

An Ciarraioch

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

So let’s see if any Tory voters defect in the polls. I expect not.

Seems to be mostly Labour and Lib Dems so far, with about 2% of the total coming from Tories:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098193444034564096

Franz Von Peppercorn

So let’s see if any Tory voters defect in the polls. I expect not.

I’m no Tory but I like Heidi Allen. Also they are fairly brave. The Labour defectors look like they were going to be deselected anyway. These guys seem safe, Tory remainers dont organise.

So this is a remain party? The Labour defectors were too busy attacking Corbyn to say.

A Dub in Glasgo

Not sure what way this will go and their intention, they will need more Labour MPs to prop up May against the DUP / ERG or they will need more Tory MPs to vote with Labour against the Tories. this is just a voting bloc rather than a new political party?

Profiles: three MPs leave Conservative Party (from thetimes.co.uk)

Anna Soubry, 62, Broxtowe since 2010
Ms Soubry was a rising star under David Cameron with a seat at the cabinet table as a business minister. But she refused a more junior post from Theresa May before becoming one of the most outspoken opponents of the Brexit process. In doing that Ms Soubry, has formed a strong working relationship with Chuka Umunna, the ex-Labour MP who was one of the initial breakaway seven.

Heidi Allen, 44, South Cambridgeshire since 2015
Ms Allen has never lacked political courage: her maiden speech in the Commons was an attack on the chancellor George Osborne’s reforms to tax credits, creating a massive row.

She was praised when she became the first MP to talk openly in the Commons about her abortion in a move that campaigners said helped to pull down one of society’s biggest taboos. She later described Mr Osborne as “too smooth” and said that when she pictured Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, she saw “him in a room with Putin, naked from the waist upwards and together wrestling fish”.

She grew up in West Yorkshire; her mother who moved to Britain from Germany after the war and her father was born in Manchester. She is one of the few politicians who can say that they studied astrophysics at university and has been criticial of the government’s handling of Brexit.

Sarah Wollaston, 57, Totnes since 2010
The chairwoman of the Commons health select committee has already made political history. She was the first UK politician to win her party’s nomination as an MP under an American- style open primary system. She was reportedly facing a deselection vote from her local association and has been highly critical of her party’s attitude to Brexit.

Tom Mann Centuria

Good news for Labour that some Tories have joined the party that isn't a party. In my opinion only of course! Heidi Allen has a reasonable chance of holding her current seat I think, strong Remain constituency and even though her voting record doesn't back it up, shes seen as a compassionate Tory (a strange idea).

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well you saw the tweets and retweets from Labour Youth. Pretty much the exact issue. Conflating somebody's Jewishness with hatred of Palestine or support for Israeli government policy.

But the argument began the other way. Corbyn was criticised as anti Semitic because he criticised Israel. As in being pro hamas. Joking about Zionism etc.

Water John

I think 2 of the 7 LB who went first are from Brexit Constituencies, for a better term.

prawnsambo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Do people say that? I've seen a fair amount of criticism of Corbyn and others conflating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. In fact Ryan's resignation speech mentioned Israel.

as in

"And I cannot remain a member of the Labour party while this requires me to suggest that I believe Jeremy Corbyn – a man who has presided over the culture of anti-Jewish racism and hatred for Israel which now afflicts my former party – is fit to be Prime Minister of this country. He is not."

Well you saw the tweets and retweets from Labour Youth. Pretty much the exact issue. Conflating somebody's Jewishness with hatred of Palestine or support for Israeli government policy.

Franz Von Peppercorn

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. And this is what I think is part of the disingenuous narrative around Israel and anti-semitism. Supporting the rights of Palestine and the Palestinian people and directly or indirectly condemning Israeli government policy is fine. But then the water gets muddied by people calling on Jewish people in the UK or the HoC to condemn Israel crosses that line. Because it's a bit like saying that Muslims who have lived all their lives in Ireland or the UK, should somehow be required to condemn Isamic fundamentalism, because y'know, they're the same thing until proven otherwise.

Do people say that? I've seen a fair amount of criticism of Corbyn and others conflating criticism of Israel with anti-semitism. In fact Ryan's resignation speech mentioned Israel.

as in

"And I cannot remain a member of the Labour party while this requires me to suggest that I believe Jeremy Corbyn – a man who has presided over the culture of anti-Jewish racism and hatred for Israel which now afflicts my former party – is fit to be Prime Minister of this country. He is not."

Akrasia

There's a Conservative MP on LBC now talking about how he was very close to joining the 3 Tory defectors and how he has spoken to cabinet ministers who have expressed to him that they are extremely unhappy with the way TM is handling brexit. There are Tory MPs who are still pushing for a 2nd referendum but TM refuses to even meet them

I get the impression that the next day or two could see a lot of additional defections depending on how TM reacts to this (and so far her reaction has been very underwhelming)

Harry Palmr

PMQ's at high noon, will any of the Independents be asking a question?

prawnsambo

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Deselection can only apply at the end of a term though and people have also been calling that Orwellian, when it really isn't.

I don't agree that a party should be able to "own" a seat, but public discontent at somebody changing sides is understandable.

In Ireland, Stephen Donnelly is a good case in point. I don't believe he should have been forced to resign his seat and seek re-election in a by-election however, no more than I did when he and Roisin Shortall and Catherine Murphy formed the Social Democrats.

I wouldn't entirely disagree with you. But it's often the case that these defections happen because it's with the mood of the constituency rather than against it. Many of these defectors (if not all - I haven't looked them up) are representing remain constituencies. You also have the likes of Kate Hoey, who's more often photographed with UKIPpers and Unionists representing a strong remain constituency. And there's nothing those constituents can do about it.

Harry Palmr

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it noteworthy that the defectors are all women?

I think the ERG is something women tend to react against! That group is overwhelmingly men

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

Are these numbers of defectors big enough to make any difference?

Potentially yes. They are now one more than the DUP.

The numbers are now:
Conservatives - 308
Labour - 239
SNP - 35
Lib Dems - 11
Ind Group - 11
DUP - 10
Plaid Cymru - 4
Green - 1
Independents - 8
Vacant - 1

So if you add Labour and all the rest against the Tories (with the DUP abstaining), you get a 308 to 309 split.

There may well be more defections from both parties. TheIndGroup on Twitter now has over 100k followers.

lawred2

robinph wrote: »

I thought Con+DUP only gave a majority of 2? So only needed one to jump ship to tip the balance.

May's Deal was defeated by over 200 votes..

What is it that these ten help parliament agree on?

Realistically May's government was always a minority government

hill16bhoy

prawnsambo wrote: »

But recall elections only go as far as state level. And the rules differ from state to state. Some have to pass judicial scrutiny. As for primaries, they are part of the elction process and therefore can only remove a sitting representative at the end of their term. Pretty much what can happen here or in the UK. Although it's very rare that a sitting TD would be removed from a constituency prior to an election. But it is possible.

It may be a stretch to call it Orwellian, but I'm thinking of the pledge that's been going around social media recently as well. But the real issue is the notion that a party can 'own' a seat and therefore decide who sits in it and now is looking to increase that power to remove dissenters from them is stretching democracy to breaking point.

Deselection can only apply at the end of a term though and people have also been calling that Orwellian, when it really isn't.

I don't agree that a party should be able to "own" a seat, but public discontent at somebody changing sides is understandable.

In Ireland, Stephen Donnelly is a good case in point. I don't believe he should have been forced to resign his seat and seek re-election in a by-election however, no more than I did when he and Roisin Shortall and Catherine Murphy formed the Social Democrats.

robinph

lawred2 wrote: »

Are these numbers of defectors big enough to make any difference?

I thought Con+DUP only gave a majority of 2? So only needed one to jump ship to tip the balance.

lawred2

Is it noteworthy that the defectors are all women?

Leroy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

No mention of them joining The Independent Group that I've seen yet, but their Twitter account is now following the three of them, so maybe they are.

It says they are in the letter

prawnsambo

No mention of them joining The Independent Group that I've seen yet, but their Twitter account is now following the three of them, so maybe they are.

Edit: Nope, The Guardian is reporting that they've joined. PMQs will be interesting as TM has to rip up her script slagging Labour for the defections.

lawred2

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's really exiting (god I'm a nerd)

Are these numbers of defectors big enough to make any difference?

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Hard to disagree with her there.

markodaly

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Defined by capitalists or indeed modernists when they deal with economic growth since the capitalist era.

Can you show me these modernists that say this?

I doubt that graph,

Convenient.

This is all good stuff, but was all driven by and large by leftwing ideologies.

Yes, it ALL happened under the Blair years :rolleyes:, who ironically the Corbynistas hate more than the Tories.

I think that Brexit is lunacy,

So why isnt Corbyn willing to try and stop it?

He has imposed Tariffs yes..

So not a Free Market fanatic so, glad we cleared that one up.

in fact there is a growing body of economic position that globalisation hasn't worked,

It depends on who you ask. For the 500 million Chinese who have been lifted out of extreme poverty, it certainly has worked, not mentioning the other billions world wide.

For the coal miner in Yorkshire, perhaps not.

The point is to not let the problems masks the huge achievements.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank

“Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, and the global poverty rate is now lower than it has ever been in recorded history. This is one of the greatest human achievements of our time,” World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said

prawnsambo

Here is the shared resignation letter. Basically decrying the move to the hard right, pandering to the ERG and handling of brexit.

Hurrache

prawnsambo wrote: »

Aaaaand they're off.

I thought Anna Soubry would have quit last week, but I suppose now with the platform of the Independent Group she has somewhere to jump to.