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MPs quitting Labour & Conservative parties discussion thread

BobbyBobberson

Looks like its happening. What is the impact in all honesty?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097405369582866434

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quokula

Leroy42 wrote: »

Suddenly. The last election was in 2017. Hardly can be accused of simply pretending to be Labour to get elected.

So when should they announce it? 2 months before, a week? Is there a perfect time?

You announce it during an election campaign. The people of those constituencies are unrepresented now. Even the likes of Douglas Carswell had the decency to go to the people when he switched party from Tory to UKIP.

You don't campaign in support of one party, get voted in because of that, then switch without giving your voters a chance to have their say.

The fact that it took them two years to get organised doesn't change anything - they still have 3 years more of this fixed term (yes, there might be a snap election, but nothing guarantees that) to push an agenda they weren't voted in on, and to actively campaign against the agenda they were voted in on.

A number of them were already being considered by deselection, so they've clearly decided to avoid democratic processes and steal a bunch of parliamentary seats for themselves without a mandate, so they can do as much damage as they can and get as much free publicity as they can before an actual election comes round.

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

The alternative of potentially decade long Tory dominance? I'll have to disagree with you on that point OB.

That's a perfectly valid argument - if you subscribe to the belief that the Labour party as it currently stands can win an election.

As it is, Labour are polling well behind the Conservatives.

Think about that for a second. A flaming bag of dog turds should be polling ahead of the current Conservative party.

It's all very well saying "either we unite behind the current leadership or the Tories will win" - but the Tories are winning, which practically defies the laws of physics.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

That's a perfectly valid argument - if you subscribe to the belief that the Labour party as it currently stands can win an election.

As it is, Labour are polling well behind the Conservatives.

Think about that for a second. A flaming bag of dog turds should be polling ahead of the current Conservative party.

It's all very well saying "either we unite behind the current leadership or the Tories will win" - but the Tories are winning, which practically defies the laws of physics.

They have been neck and neck, and yesterday it was dead even in the latest polling I saw. Worth also pointing out that remain was polling well ahead, until the vote.

Havockk

More
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 37% (-4)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 13 - 15 Feb
Chgs. w/ 01 Feb

10:40 AM - 16 Feb 2019

LuckyLloyd

They also were getting hammered in polling in early 2017 and their ultimate performance was a massive leap beyond mean expectations.

quokula

Once an election campaign begins manifestos get published and people start thinking about actual policies and not just media smears, which is why Labour did so much better than polling last time, and likely would again.

Havockk

Actually, this polling data makes the decision from these 7 seem even more insane. If there is no mass defection from Lab, and no one joins from the Tories to fracture them.... what exactly will they achieve?

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

Actually, this polling data makes the decision from these 7 seem even more insane. If there is no mass defection from Lab, and no one joins from the Tories to fracture them.... what exactly will they achieve?

A principled stand against a party whose values they no longer recognise as compatible with their own?

listermint

quokula wrote: »

Once an election campaign begins manifestos get published and people start thinking about actual policies and not just media smears, which is why Labour did so much better than polling last time, and likely would again.

Then why did the membership unanimously vote for second referendum?

And Corbyn with his 'ultra' socialist policies is avoiding it with every last bead of sweat he can muster.

He is ignoring the Membership.

Dyr

Leroy42 wrote: »

They won the seat, it was their name, not the party.

You seem to be mixing the UK up with Ireland as far as election goes.

You think the scousers voted for a toffee nosed, carpet bagging southerner for any other reason other than her being the Labour candidate?

You could run a broken toaster in a lot of English constituencies and it would be elected so long as it had the right party badge

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

A principled stand against a party whose values they no longer recognise as compatible with their own?

What about the labour supporters who elected them, what about them?

MrMusician18

oscarBravo wrote: »

That's a perfectly valid argument - if you subscribe to the belief that the Labour party as it currently stands can win an election.

As it is, Labour are polling well behind the Conservatives.

Think about that for a second. A flaming bag of dog turds should be polling ahead of the current Conservative party.

It's all very well saying "either we unite behind the current leadership or the Tories will win" - but the Tories are winning, which practically defies the laws of physics.

Are they?

I thought the polls were quite tight? Surely then the Tories wouldn't fear an election then?

Or isn't it the case that once people get to hear what Corbyn has to say, they quite like it?

Havockk

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Are they?

I thought the polls were quite tight? Surely then the Tories wouldn't fear an election then?

Or isn't it the case that once people get to hear what Corbyn has to say, they quite like it?

I can barely stomach the argument that it's somehow 'more principled' to risk total tory political dominance than to somehow accept someone of the left to lead a labour movement. The truth is the collective centre has lost all sense of itself and is now possibly paving the way for something even worse.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Are they?

I thought the polls were quite tight? Surely then the Tories wouldn't fear an election then?

Or isn't it the case that once people get to hear what Corbyn has to say, they quite like it?

On Corbyn specifically, in leadership polls he's consistently finished third behind Theresa May and Don't Know. That could change in an election, but Labour members are now favouring no brexit and he's refused to countenance that. How much that could affect the Labour vote is uncertain, but it has to be a factor in Labour's poor performance in the polls. As OB says, they should be well ahead of the dumpster fire that is the Tories.

listermint

Havockk wrote: »

I can barely stomach the argument that it's somehow 'more principled' to risk total tory political dominance than to somehow accept someone of the left to lead a labour movement. The truth is the collective centre has lost all sense of itself and is now possibly paving the way for something even worse.

What like shepherding the Tories into a brexit deal which has already killed thousands of labour jobs and will continue to risk thousands more.

Good Shepherding their Jeremy , ace job.

This is ultra Socialism, Its not social democracy which is demonstrated cleanly and clearly by the leadership ignoring their membership.

Leroy42

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Are they?

I thought the polls were quite tight? Surely then the Tories wouldn't fear an election then?

Or isn't it the case that once people get to hear what Corbyn has to say, they quite like it?

But if that were true then surely Labour would be riding high in the polls now? He got an uplift during the election for sure, but it should be very worrying that he was not able to hold that, or since the Tories are such a mess, capitalise on it.

All the Labour have left at this stage is hope. Hope that what happened last time (and btw people seem to have forgotten that Labour still lost) will happen again. But people are now very aware of Corbyn and what he stands for and seemingly are no longer feeling like they did in 2017.

quokula

listermint wrote: »

What like shepherding the Tories into a brexit deal which has already killed thousands of labour jobs and will continue to risk thousands more.

Good Shepherding their Jeremy , ace job.

This is ultra Socialism, Its not social democracy which is demonstrated cleanly and clearly by the leadership ignoring their membership.

Labour don't have the numbers in parliament to stop what's happening. What exactly could they have done differently? They've voted against the Tories every step of the way.

And Corbyn's letter last week proposing staying in the Customs Union and Single Market was widely welcomed by people like Tusk and Verhofstadt. It's a blatant mistruth to try and paint Labour's Brexit policy as anything close to the Tories.

But yes, it's true that he hasn't openly campaigned for a second referendum that has no chance of happening and would disillusion many labour voters (but not their membership)

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

What about the labour supporters who elected them, what about them?

Would those be the Labour supporters who overwhelmingly back a second referendum, and who are being pointedly ignored by the party leadership?

Politicians change parties between elections. It happens. If their constituents think it's an unforgivable breach of trust, they won't be re-elected.

Havockk wrote: »

I can barely stomach the argument that it's somehow 'more principled' to risk total tory political dominance than to somehow accept someone of the left to lead a labour movement.

You're reframing this as a rejection of left-wing policy. This isn't about rejecting left-wing leadership of Labour; it's about rejecting an abject failure of leadership of Labour.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

What like shepherding the Tories into a brexit deal which has already killed thousands of labour jobs and will continue to risk thousands more.

Good Shepherding their Jeremy , ace job.

This is ultra Socialism, Its not social democracy which is demonstrated cleanly and clearly by the leadership ignoring their membership.

a 2nd ref was never going to fly. Only way was going to be via a GE but teh Tories refused that pressure. Besides, as a remainer I'm also not completely unaware that a lot of LAb voters supported Brexit which makes it very delicate for leadership to organise a consensus.

Corbyn as always backed a CU, something the EU themselves have pointed toward as a possible solution but it all falls on deaf ears.

Ultra socialism? Like nationalising railways? Give me a break. I wish the consequences were not so dire, otherwise, I could almost enjoy this centerist complete meltdown.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

Would those be the Labour supporters who overwhelmingly back a second referendum, and who are being pointedly ignored by the party leadership?

Politicians change parties between elections. It happens. If their constituents think it's an unforgivable breach of trust, they won't be re-elected.

You're reframing this as a rejection of left-wing policy. This isn't about rejecting left-wing leadership of Labour; it's about rejecting an abject failure of leadership of Labour.

I pointed out to you that on Monday both were polling exactly the same. You just brushed over it.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

But if that were true then surely Labour would be riding high in the polls now? He got an uplift during the election for sure, but it should be very worrying that he was not able to hold that, or since the Tories are such a mess, capitalise on it.

All the Labour have left at this stage is hope. Hope that what happened last time (and btw people seem to have forgotten that Labour still lost) will happen again. But people are now very aware of Corbyn and what he stands for and seemingly are no longer feeling like they did in 2017.

He has held it, but to be fair not built on it. Remember they were expected to be trounced at the last election, to lose by over 100 seats.

And the reason he hasn't been able to build stopped is because a good number of MPs come from leave constituencies.

There are a lot of myths being pedalled as fact about Corbyn in this thread - with the real issue is that he is not pro remain enough for some posters.

listermint

quokula wrote: »

Labour don't have the numbers in parliament to stop what's happening. What exactly could they have done differently? They've voted against the Tories every step of the way.

And Corbyn's letter last week proposing staying in the Customs Union and Single Market was widely welcomed by people like Tusk and Verhofstadt. It's a blatant mistruth to try and paint Labour's Brexit policy as anything close to the Tories.

But yes, it's true that he hasn't openly campaigned for a second referendum that has no chance of happening and would disillusion many labour voters (but not their membership)

Havockk wrote: »

a 2nd ref was never going to fly. Only way was going to be via a GE but teh Tories refused that pressure. Besides, as a remainer I'm also not completely unaware that a lot of LAb voters supported Brexit which makes it very delicate for leadership to organise a consensus.

Corbyn as always backed a CU, something the EU themselves have pointed toward as a possible solution but it all falls on deaf ears.

Ultra socialism? Like nationalising railways? Give me a break. I wish the consequences were not so dire, otherwise, I could almost enjoy this centerist complete meltdown.

The MEMBERSHIP voted for a Second Referendum. Corbyn has been actively fighting this.

Stop trying to rewrite history. This is only in the last few months lads.

These points are easily disproved.

Corbyn's labour is not acting democratically. Which is the platform he launched himself on. And the leadership is going along with it.

Awful setup, they are enabling the Tories with Glee... Killing jobs along the way.

Folkstonian

Yer Da sells Avon wrote: »

Losing seven centre-right MPs is hardly the break-up of the party. The anti-Semitism nonsense exists solely because the 'IRA supporter', 'Russian spy' smears didn't work. The idea that Corbyn, a life-long anti-racism campaigner, is an anti-Semite is absolutely ludicrous. They were right to leave - because they don't support the socialist policies that attracted 12.8 million voters in 2017 - they should be honest and cite those ideological differences as the reason, rather than repeating the same well-rehearsed lies about anti-Semitism.

Unbelievable.. But wholly typical of the absurd delusion that exists among the cultists.

You simply cannot ignore the mountain of compelling evidence against Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of the antisemitism that has spread like wildfire in the Labour Party since he became leader and expect people to take you seriously.

At best, the man is ignorant of the issue or entirely incapable of dealing with it. At worst, he has no interest in driving it out of the labour movement.

Also, to smear somebody generally means to damage their reputation through the spreading of false accusations. I won’t touch the IRA issue here, but on Russia - his response to the Skripal poisoning was all too real.

He stood up in parliament and cast doubt on the informed assessments of british police and intelligence services while dozens of our international partners across Europe and the world were standing with us by enacting sanctions and expelling Russian diplomats from their countries. It was painful to watch him dither, squirm and blunder in the aftermath, and yet another example of his total lack of the requisite intellectual judgement and/or moral courage for a PM in waiting

listermint

MrMusician18 wrote: »

He has held it, but to be fair not built on it. Remember they were expected to be trounced at the last election, to lose by over 100 seats.

And the reason he hasn't been able to build stopped is because a good number of MPs come from leave constituencies.

There are a lot of myths being pedalled as fact about Corbyn in this thread - with the real issue is that he is not pro remain enough for some posters.

He is not remain at all, Lets cut to the chase. There are people that will make excuses for the man constantly regardless of the evidence. Everyday brexit gets closer and he says nothing of note demonstrates his feelings on the EU.

He is terrible.

oscarBravo

Havockk wrote: »

I pointed out to you that on Monday both were polling exactly the same. You just brushed over it.

I'm not brushing over it. I'll reiterate my point: polling neck and neck with the disaster-of-old-testament-proportions that is the current Tory party is, and can only be seen as, an abject failure of leadership.

Havockk

listermint wrote: »

The MEMBERSHIP voted for a Second Referendum. Corbyn has been actively fighting this.

Stop trying to rewrite history. This is only in the last few months lads.

These points are easily disproved.

Corbyn's labour is not acting democratically. Which is the platform he launched himself on. And the leadership is going along with it.

Awful setup, they are enabling the Tories with Glee... Killing jobs along the way.

A 2ndRef mandate is going to do F-All for Labour at this point. Brexit can't be stopped, it's too late.

Leroy42

MrMusician18 wrote: »

He has held it, but to be fair not built on it. Remember they were expected to be trounced at the last election, to lose by over 100 seats.

And the reason he hasn't been able to build stopped is because a good number of MPs come from leave constituencies.

There are a lot of myths being pedalled as fact about Corbyn in this thread - with the real issue is that he is not pro remain enough for some posters.

The polls are saying that Labour would lose seats in the next election. That is not holding. But, since they lost the last election, holding was never the plan. They needed significant gains. And they are being helped by a completely split governing power.

So by any measure, Corbyn is doing a terrible job. Their only hope, and it is not based on anything but hope, is that Corbyn can repeat the same trick he did in 2017 (which, I repeat, he failed to win, he simply did less bad than expected!).

but clearly Corbyn gained for a more balanced media in the GE 2017 campaign, when people got to see and hear Corbyn. But one then needs to take the view that people have already forgotten the real Corbyn again and will only remember when a new GE campaign starts. That, IMO, is very unlikely.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

I'm not brushing over it. I'll reiterate my point: polling neck and neck with the disaster-of-old-testament-proportions that is the current Tory party is, and can only be seen as, an abject failure of leadership.

That wasn't your point. You told me that Lab were miles behind, and could never win. You're just engaging in a bit of post-moving now.

MrMusician18

listermint wrote: »

The MEMBERSHIP voted for a Second Referendum. Corbyn has been actively fighting this.

Stop trying to rewrite history. This is only in the last few months lads.

These points are easily disproved.

Corbyn's labour is not acting democratically. Which is the platform he launched himself on. And the leadership is going along with it.

Awful setup, they are enabling the Tories with Glee... Killing jobs along the way.

You only look for a referendum when you think you'll win. There is no majority on the HoC for a second referendum.

It's far too close to call at the moment even if they could get one. My gut says remain lose again though.

Second referendum and they lose, what then? The same problems exist. Do labour just wash their hands of the country?

Leroy42

Havockk wrote: »

A 2ndRef mandate is going to do F-All for Labour at this point. Brexit can't be stopped, it's too late.

And that was always Corbyn's plan. Delay, delay and delay until the point was reached when people could claim that they would love to support a 2nd ref but its simply too late.