nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

Hi guys

Just speaking to Del today and we got talking about how many on here follow. Del said, he didn't think there was more than 10 people now, what with the bad run I have just being going through. I would just like to let whoever is interested know that I will be sending an email to Del each night before 8.00pm and another before 11.15am the next morning.
I have given Del permission to post both emails on this thread.

Del has also said, one reason why people would not follow this thread is they do not envisage it being run (A) MUCH LONGER or (B) no reasoning for selections.

So to get us all on the one page (so to speak) I have decided to post the emails I send the english guys up here and secondly

I will give the selections to Del to post up here until 20th April 2019
That's one whole year so if you want to follow us for a fiver a point you are welcome.

The cynics among you, will be asking, whats behind all this,

Answer: nothing really just a bit of craic.

So let the fun or misery begin.

4.45 Baby ticker €40 e/w 22/1
Baby ticker's last race was over 18f at Haydock on heavy ground. She was pushed along early by her jockey in that race and I thought although the step up in distance is questionable, the slower pace they will go over the 3m may help her relax during the race.
If anyone can watch the Haydock race back on the internet, she was on the inside rail, glued to it really until the last two furlongs were the jockey pulled her out and she ran on well to finish 5th.

Regarding the trainer, in 2013/14 season his best ever he trained 8 winners from 60 runners with a £1 stake returning £22.25.
This season he is 8 winners from 43 runners with a £1 stake returning a nice £36.50 profit.
So we can take two things from the above info

1. the trainer has found a way he did not know before of getting his horses fitter at home
2. he has also found away of getting winners at big prices, ie hiding the horses ability from handicapper and bookmaker.

Therefore he is just the trainer we are looking for.
(regardless of what happens Baby ticker today as there will be other big priced winners from this yard now they know what they are doing is improving the horses chances of winning.

Hope if you join in, you enjoy yourself.

Jerry.

BTW, I am not a professional so FEEL FREE to point out any flaws you see in my selections however there is a condition

It must be before the race. No AFTER TIMING.

143 bets
19 winners

-€435

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

blindside88

del roy wrote: »

My first ante post bet for Cheltenham

Thursday Pertremps Final Handicap Hurdle

Notwhatiam 2pts e/w 25/1

Any background on the reasoning for this? Just wondering because sometimes there’s a bit of info which I enjoy seeing the insight into it

BumperD

Hi Del, think this is going 5 years? Have you the points results for the threads?so far? I recall the original one was titled Can it be beaten long term so at 5 years think a good point to have a peep. Obviously you could rack up 200 points in a month such is the variance

I know you quoted the first one +200 but I have lost track of how many were profitable.

Eg: thread 1 +200
Thread 2 + x
Thread 3 - y
Etc

Thanks!

Ps hopefully no one jumps down my throat for asking this. Keep the tread going forever

realdanbreen

Jesus Del, I have half the card backed at this stage!

del roy

My first ante post bet for Cheltenham

Thursday Pertremps Final Handicap Hurdle

Notwhatiam 2pts e/w 25/1

del roy

7.30 valentino dancer 2pts e/w 16/1

redzerdrog

Collie D wrote: »

You were actively willing it to lose so you could use that, weren’t you

Didn't even see the race :-)

Collie D

redzerdrog wrote: »

Gulliver never travelled

You were actively willing it to lose so you could use that, weren’t you

redzerdrog

Gulliver never travelled

del roy

3.45 diamond fort 1pt e/w 12/1

beaten a nse thought he had it there lads.

del roy

3.45 diamond fort 1pt e/w 12/1

6.55 Gulliver 10/3 5pts win

two bets for today

del roy

214 bets
19 winners
-6pts

I had purposely taken a break over the last week to let things calm down. I do really like this one this evening.

6.55 Gulliver 10/3 5pts win

Gulliver's record at Wolverhampton over the 6f distance reads 4221
His last 2nd was to the very fast Katchy beaten 6L. If there is a horse as good a horse as Katchy in this race please point him out to me.

Although Gulliver was beaten at Lingfield nine days ago, it was a messy race with no pace, they all finished flashing across the line with 3L covering most of the field.

Adam Kirby over the last twelve months at Wolverhampton is 94/21 wins 22%
However he is only one winner from seven rides for the trainer but the horses record at the track outweighs that stat for me.

Jerry

clfy39tzve8njq

This stuff should have a thread of its own

CH3OH

Just a suggestion...
Could we keep this thread as it started..Del's selections

It is very easy to start another thread to post your selections etc..

HarshOstrich

Ben Curtis or Jason Hart, they both showed level stake profits on last season + 47 in Hart’s case on over 400 rides.
Luke Morris minus 375 ha.

BorneTobyWilde

I'll go through Fannings 935 rides last year and post the results, see how many of those 935 rides are in the 10-1 to 25-1 bracket and post the results.
It will probably show how wrong I am, but we'll see.

Maybe adding in another consistent jockey in that price bracket would be beneficial. Could be more winners so the strike rate is lower..

HarshOstrich

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I just went through J Fannings rides for this year just for the laugh

He has had 108 rides since 1st Jan
There was 28 of those rides priced between 10-1 and 25-1
There was 22 loses, although some did place we'll play this to win only
There was 6 winners at

12-1
14-1
16-1
12-1
14-1
14-1
For a plus of +82

So +82 minus the 22 losses = a plus profit of +60

+60 over 28 bets is pretty good?

Of course this data would want to be tested over a year or two, but this year this far it's +60

Really like joe fanning and am interested
In the stats, how many of the wins where for mark Johnston , it’s just that at the turn of every year he brings out unraced and once raced 3 year olds and I have noticed that at least 2 of them won in the last week at good odds.
I’d say they are the majority of his winners and I’m surprised at the prices mark Johnston debutantes are going off of late.
Obviously the yearly stats would give us a better reading overall.

BorneTobyWilde

I just went through J Fannings rides for this year just for the laugh

He has had 108 rides since 1st Jan
There was 28 of those rides priced between 10-1 and 25-1
There was 22 loses, although some did place we'll play this to win only
There was 6 winners at

12-1
14-1
16-1
12-1
14-1
14-1
For a plus of +82

So +82 minus the 22 losses = a plus profit of +60

+60 over 28 bets is pretty good?

Of course this data would want to be tested over a year or two, but this year this far it's +60

OsmosisJ

OsmosisJ wrote: »

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

Duke cosimo dead heats so some more profit

OsmosisJ

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Theres a fancies thread for this.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057812251/116/#post109458181

Didn't even know that thread existed ha

Timberrrrrrrr

OsmosisJ wrote: »

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

Theres a fancies thread for this.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057812251/116/#post109458181

OsmosisJ

OsmosisJ wrote: »

I like TEESCOMPONENTS LAD in it but good luck

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

BorneTobyWilde

Have you ever looked at following a jockey between certain prices, so that you can only back big price winners? I think there is enough data there to do that. There are numerous jockeys out here with a 20% or thereabouts strike rate, and if you look at their data and see that they do consistently ride good price winners every few weeks then you can use that data to pick your winners and the prices you want.
For example J Fanning is a consistent jockey every year. What if you say I will follow blindly between 10-1 and 25-1 only! Not only will you be backing way less of his rides but you pick your prices, ie between 10-1 and 25-1 , that is a sweet spot. No one rides 150-1 winners or 50-1 winners..
I'm sure there must be something to it, a lot of data to go through though. I might look at his rides this year and see where it leads if followed blindly between 10-1 and 25-1.
Is there a program that can run such data?

BorneTobyWilde

I'm thinking you could follow a trainer or jockey blindly and have a better return than -2 over 213 bets and at SP.

OsmosisJ

I like TEESCOMPONENTS LAD in it but good luck

del roy

Yes Collie, ante post so -4

Collie D

I see you've gone from +4 to -2 when I only count a 2 point loss on Mullarkey in between. Or was the non-runner ante-post?

del roy

213 bets
19 winners
-2pts

I have decided to leave my Cheltenham bets until nearer the off as the mild weather will force the clerk of the course to water and if some rain arrives after they water the runners will be all over the place.

3.35 McGowans pass 2pts e/w 12/1

del roy

Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

NON RUNNER

del roy

Thursday
8.30 mullarky 1pt e/w 10/1

del roy

211 bets
19 winners
+4pts

Every now and again I like to give a write up on a selection so lads on here can see where I am coming from, there will no bets today or tomorrow so I thought I would have a look at the Grand National Haydock Trial on Saturday 16th February.

Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

I don't want to go back too far so I would like to use the PETER MARSH handicap run last month where BALLYDINE finished 3rd.
Three out BALLYDINE was cruising and looked the winner to me until he clouded the second last, he not surprisingly dropped back through the field. However the jockey gathered the horse together and ran on to grab a very close third, all this from the wrong side of the track.

The winner Wakanda was gining Ballydine 6LB. The winners record is 2/2 when finishing the course, he was pulled up on his only other race at Haydock. He was backed from 7/1 to 6/1

Comments: Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, ridden after next, led flat, kept on well final 110 yards op 7/1

The second Robinsfirth was backed from 10/1 into 7/1, here is what the trainer said before the race.

He’s been off since he won at Cheltenham last year, so he missed the second half of that season. He’s been back in training for a long time and been aiming at this for a while. He’s a very capable horse on his day. He’s a big horse so he’s entitled to improve a fraction but he’s ready and hopefully he should have a good chance.

Comments Mid-division, went left and bumped rival 5th, hit 10th, behind and pushed along after 5 out, ridden and headway 2 out, went 2nd and kept on towards far side rail flat, not reach winner op 9/1 tchd 10/1

I think Ballydine bumped into two decent stayers in this race, had he not clouted the second last he would have given these two stayers something to think about.
This trial is almost four furlongs further and this extra distance should suit.

On his hurdle form he ran in the three mile SEFTON HURDLE of a rating of 145, he did finish well beaten however he was only 6/1 and some really decent horses ran in the race,

Winner.....BALLYOPTIC
Second....BELLSHILL
Third......POTTERS LEGEND
Fourth....BALKO DES FLO
Fifth......YALA YAKI
Eighth.....ASMI DEBOIS finished nk 2nd to Classic Ben on Saturday

Here is what trainer Charlie Longsdon had to say in last years stable tour.

Last season saw Longsdon have to make do without several key players due to injury, one of which was promising hurdler Ballydine who will now have his attentions switched to fences where he is expected to flourish and make up for lost time.

Longsdon said: "Ballydine is back steady cantering away. He won't be seen out until the middle of November. He is a different horse to what he was two years ago. As long as we can keep him sound, it was almost a blessing that he missed last season.

"He was a weak, raw horse and is a much bigger horse. Johnny Burke has sat on him a fair few times at home and he really likes him. I'd say he will go novice chasing. He will start over two and a half miles and will step up to three."

If he runs on the day 14/1 looks big