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Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

Hi guys

Just speaking to Del today and we got talking about how many on here follow. Del said, he didn't think there was more than 10 people now, what with the bad run I have just being going through. I would just like to let whoever is interested know that I will be sending an email to Del each night before 8.00pm and another before 11.15am the next morning.
I have given Del permission to post both emails on this thread.

Del has also said, one reason why people would not follow this thread is they do not envisage it being run (A) MUCH LONGER or (B) no reasoning for selections.

So to get us all on the one page (so to speak) I have decided to post the emails I send the english guys up here and secondly

I will give the selections to Del to post up here until 20th April 2019
That's one whole year so if you want to follow us for a fiver a point you are welcome.

The cynics among you, will be asking, whats behind all this,

Answer: nothing really just a bit of craic.

So let the fun or misery begin.

4.45 Baby ticker €40 e/w 22/1
Baby ticker's last race was over 18f at Haydock on heavy ground. She was pushed along early by her jockey in that race and I thought although the step up in distance is questionable, the slower pace they will go over the 3m may help her relax during the race.
If anyone can watch the Haydock race back on the internet, she was on the inside rail, glued to it really until the last two furlongs were the jockey pulled her out and she ran on well to finish 5th.

Regarding the trainer, in 2013/14 season his best ever he trained 8 winners from 60 runners with a £1 stake returning £22.25.
This season he is 8 winners from 43 runners with a £1 stake returning a nice £36.50 profit.
So we can take two things from the above info

1. the trainer has found a way he did not know before of getting his horses fitter at home
2. he has also found away of getting winners at big prices, ie hiding the horses ability from handicapper and bookmaker.

Therefore he is just the trainer we are looking for.
(regardless of what happens Baby ticker today as there will be other big priced winners from this yard now they know what they are doing is improving the horses chances of winning.

Hope if you join in, you enjoy yourself.

Jerry.

BTW, I am not a professional so FEEL FREE to point out any flaws you see in my selections however there is a condition

It must be before the race. No AFTER TIMING.

143 bets
19 winners

-€435

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BorneTobyWilde

So has this gone so far.
+8 pts is good or bad?
Over 210 bets it's pretty low?

Collie D

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

So has this gone so far.
+8 pts is good or bad?
Over 210 bets it's pretty low?

I’m a fan of the thread and have backed two or three (no winners) but I still think an ROI or a level stakes P/L would be nice.

No offence I hope, Del or Kid. Following with interest and wish all the best.

Car99

Collie D wrote: »

I’m a fan of the thread and have backed two or three (no winners) but I still think an ROI or a level stakes P/L would be nice.

No offence I hope, Del or Kid. Following with interest and wish all the best.

Didnt he say he bets €100 per point.

sydthebeat

Car99 wrote: »

Didnt he say he bets €100 per point.

loads of times......

Jerry bets at €100 per point.... not sure what del does (was it €30?)

Imhof Tank

Car99 wrote: »

Didnt he say he bets €100 per point.

That wont tell you ROI or P/L to a level stake.

At a rough guess if you say an average of 2.5 points/€250 per selection - 210 bets would be say €52,500 staked and he's up €400 so ROI currently would be less than 1%.

mirwillbeback

sydthebeat wrote: »

loads of times......

Jerry bets at €100 per point.... not sure what del does (was it €30?)

If Jerry was 100 a point at 200pts down that was 20k - not sure if my missus would let me keep going ....

Mostly Harmless

Not sure if anyone can be betting at €100 a point on the earliest of early overnight markets without needing at least 10 new accounts a month

Imhof Tank

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Not sure if anyone can be betting at €100 a point on the earliest of early overnight markets without needing at least 10 new accounts a month

Would the bookies not be clamouring for the Kid's business given his profile over the past year though?

The poor strike rate I mean. He's turned over well north of €50k in 10 months and was €20k in the hole at one point. I've always stayed away from online myself but have always been told bookies love profiles like this.

longshotvalue

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Would the bookies not be clamouring for the Kid's business given his profile over the past year though?

The poor strike rate I mean. I know there has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes but have the impression bookies see money lost to a losing punter who hits a 33/1 winner as temporarily lent.

You might be onto something there, i still have all my accounts, without much limits (not that id need them ), and ive been profitable for years, but mainly dropping the big bomb every so often.

NaiveMelodies

aidankkk wrote: »

You might be onto something there, i still have all my accounts, without much limits (not that id need them ), and ive been profitable for years, but mainly dropping the big bomb every so often.

There's no way his previous success was do-able on his personal accounts at €100 a point.
Pretty sure Del Roy has said he has fellas putting bets on for him.....

Mostly Harmless

If you're taking overnight early prices and beating SP then you'll lose accounts betting to €20 a point, regardless of win or lose

2ndcoming

I don't have direct experience of this but I'd say it's more if you are consistently beating the odds on horses from one or two yards (in Ireland) that would set alarm bells ringing.

The Kid does not seem to rely on any one source for his picks which probably means they couldn't suspect inside info.

If you were consistently backing O'Brien outsiders showing up and beating O'Brien favourites a la Joseph's Colfer Me at Dundalk on Friday night they may rightly suspect something was up.

Mostly Harmless

The majority of "trading decisions" are made by algorithms nowadays, stuff like % of bets at overnight prices, average % diff of price taken vs SP etc. Once account is flagged up it will be factored down to pennies eventually if you continue to bet in an unprofitable (to the betting firm) manner. Beating SP and betting on overnight prices are two of the most surefire ways to get plug pulled quickly.

del roy

211 bets
19 winners
+4pts

Every now and again I like to give a write up on a selection so lads on here can see where I am coming from, there will no bets today or tomorrow so I thought I would have a look at the Grand National Haydock Trial on Saturday 16th February.

Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

I don't want to go back too far so I would like to use the PETER MARSH handicap run last month where BALLYDINE finished 3rd.
Three out BALLYDINE was cruising and looked the winner to me until he clouded the second last, he not surprisingly dropped back through the field. However the jockey gathered the horse together and ran on to grab a very close third, all this from the wrong side of the track.

The winner Wakanda was gining Ballydine 6LB. The winners record is 2/2 when finishing the course, he was pulled up on his only other race at Haydock. He was backed from 7/1 to 6/1

Comments: Tracked leaders, challenged after 3 out, ridden after next, led flat, kept on well final 110 yards op 7/1

The second Robinsfirth was backed from 10/1 into 7/1, here is what the trainer said before the race.

He’s been off since he won at Cheltenham last year, so he missed the second half of that season. He’s been back in training for a long time and been aiming at this for a while. He’s a very capable horse on his day. He’s a big horse so he’s entitled to improve a fraction but he’s ready and hopefully he should have a good chance.

Comments Mid-division, went left and bumped rival 5th, hit 10th, behind and pushed along after 5 out, ridden and headway 2 out, went 2nd and kept on towards far side rail flat, not reach winner op 9/1 tchd 10/1

I think Ballydine bumped into two decent stayers in this race, had he not clouted the second last he would have given these two stayers something to think about.
This trial is almost four furlongs further and this extra distance should suit.

On his hurdle form he ran in the three mile SEFTON HURDLE of a rating of 145, he did finish well beaten however he was only 6/1 and some really decent horses ran in the race,

Winner.....BALLYOPTIC
Second....BELLSHILL
Third......POTTERS LEGEND
Fourth....BALKO DES FLO
Fifth......YALA YAKI
Eighth.....ASMI DEBOIS finished nk 2nd to Classic Ben on Saturday

Here is what trainer Charlie Longsdon had to say in last years stable tour.

Last season saw Longsdon have to make do without several key players due to injury, one of which was promising hurdler Ballydine who will now have his attentions switched to fences where he is expected to flourish and make up for lost time.

Longsdon said: "Ballydine is back steady cantering away. He won't be seen out until the middle of November. He is a different horse to what he was two years ago. As long as we can keep him sound, it was almost a blessing that he missed last season.

"He was a weak, raw horse and is a much bigger horse. Johnny Burke has sat on him a fair few times at home and he really likes him. I'd say he will go novice chasing. He will start over two and a half miles and will step up to three."

If he runs on the day 14/1 looks big

del roy

Thursday
8.30 mullarky 1pt e/w 10/1

del roy

Haydock National Trial Saturday 16th February.

Ballydine 2pts e/w 14/1

NON RUNNER

del roy

213 bets
19 winners
-2pts

I have decided to leave my Cheltenham bets until nearer the off as the mild weather will force the clerk of the course to water and if some rain arrives after they water the runners will be all over the place.

3.35 McGowans pass 2pts e/w 12/1

Collie D

I see you've gone from +4 to -2 when I only count a 2 point loss on Mullarkey in between. Or was the non-runner ante-post?

del roy

Yes Collie, ante post so -4

OsmosisJ

I like TEESCOMPONENTS LAD in it but good luck

BorneTobyWilde

I'm thinking you could follow a trainer or jockey blindly and have a better return than -2 over 213 bets and at SP.

BorneTobyWilde

Have you ever looked at following a jockey between certain prices, so that you can only back big price winners? I think there is enough data there to do that. There are numerous jockeys out here with a 20% or thereabouts strike rate, and if you look at their data and see that they do consistently ride good price winners every few weeks then you can use that data to pick your winners and the prices you want.
For example J Fanning is a consistent jockey every year. What if you say I will follow blindly between 10-1 and 25-1 only! Not only will you be backing way less of his rides but you pick your prices, ie between 10-1 and 25-1 , that is a sweet spot. No one rides 150-1 winners or 50-1 winners..
I'm sure there must be something to it, a lot of data to go through though. I might look at his rides this year and see where it leads if followed blindly between 10-1 and 25-1.
Is there a program that can run such data?

OsmosisJ

OsmosisJ wrote: »

I like TEESCOMPONENTS LAD in it but good luck

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

Timberrrrrrrr

OsmosisJ wrote: »

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

Theres a fancies thread for this.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057812251/116/#post109458181

OsmosisJ

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Theres a fancies thread for this.

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057812251/116/#post109458181

Didn't even know that thread existed ha

OsmosisJ

OsmosisJ wrote: »

Not much point creating a new thread at this stage so I'll just stick these here as a one off

7.00 outrage 11/2
8.00 Duke cosimo 9/1

Duke cosimo dead heats so some more profit

BorneTobyWilde

I just went through J Fannings rides for this year just for the laugh

He has had 108 rides since 1st Jan
There was 28 of those rides priced between 10-1 and 25-1
There was 22 loses, although some did place we'll play this to win only
There was 6 winners at

12-1
14-1
16-1
12-1
14-1
14-1
For a plus of +82

So +82 minus the 22 losses = a plus profit of +60

+60 over 28 bets is pretty good?

Of course this data would want to be tested over a year or two, but this year this far it's +60

HarshOstrich

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I just went through J Fannings rides for this year just for the laugh

He has had 108 rides since 1st Jan
There was 28 of those rides priced between 10-1 and 25-1
There was 22 loses, although some did place we'll play this to win only
There was 6 winners at

12-1
14-1
16-1
12-1
14-1
14-1
For a plus of +82

So +82 minus the 22 losses = a plus profit of +60

+60 over 28 bets is pretty good?

Of course this data would want to be tested over a year or two, but this year this far it's +60

Really like joe fanning and am interested
In the stats, how many of the wins where for mark Johnston , it’s just that at the turn of every year he brings out unraced and once raced 3 year olds and I have noticed that at least 2 of them won in the last week at good odds.
I’d say they are the majority of his winners and I’m surprised at the prices mark Johnston debutantes are going off of late.
Obviously the yearly stats would give us a better reading overall.

BorneTobyWilde

I'll go through Fannings 935 rides last year and post the results, see how many of those 935 rides are in the 10-1 to 25-1 bracket and post the results.
It will probably show how wrong I am, but we'll see.

Maybe adding in another consistent jockey in that price bracket would be beneficial. Could be more winners so the strike rate is lower..

HarshOstrich

Ben Curtis or Jason Hart, they both showed level stake profits on last season + 47 in Hart’s case on over 400 rides.
Luke Morris minus 375 ha.