Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

cnocbui wrote: »

Absolute rubbish. Drugs are illegal, alcohol is illegal in many places, prositution is illegal in many places - etc, etc, etc. All these illegal things are available in the places where they are illegal.

If you read my post again I didn’t say making it illegal would make it completely unavailable. I said it would mean any legit business wouldn’t touch it, many individuals wouldn’t touch it, and it would prevent it from becoming mainstream.

Also none of the things you mentioned are threatening the national interest of ireland, which is part of why law enforcement is rather lax. If what was at stake was the governments ability to enforce monetary and economic policies it deems absolutely necessary to save the national economy, the criticality of the issue would lead to very different ways to enforce the law.

smacl

Bob24 wrote: »

Also none of the things you mentioned are threatening the national interest of ireland, which is part of why law enforcement is rather lax. If what was at stake was the governments ability to enforce monetary and economic policies it deems absolutely necessary to save the national economy, the criticality of the issue would lead to very different ways to enforce the law.

With respect, if the Irish economy couldn't survive in the presence of legal crypto-currency I'd strongly suggest it was entirely fecked regardless. The fact that crypto gets used in situations where the local currency is suffering from hyper inflation is in no way a fault of crypto currency, nor is there any indication that crypto currency a root cause of such a problem.

smacl wrote: »

The fact that crypto gets used in situations where the local currency is suffering from hyper inflation is in no way a fault of crypto currency, nor is there any indication that crypto currency a root cause of such a problem.

It's definitely not the fault of crypto - agree completely. However, taking that Venezuela example, as distasteful as Maduro and his cronies are, his government is no different than any other insofar as they're all about control.

Cnoicbui is right in that there has been a spike in Bitcoin trading volume in Venezuela over recent weeks. However, there has been an immediate push-back. They've slapped on a tax/fee of 15%.

There will be more push-back like this from other governments before long and whilst they will never kill it, its still going to stymie the development of crypto. Will be interesting to see how it develops.

smacl wrote: »

With respect, if the Irish economy couldn't survive in the presence of legal crypto-currency I'd strongly suggest it was entirely fecked regardless.

Governements have always used monetary policies to influence their economies and address crisis. It is an instrument of national sovereignty all accross the world (bar in the EU where it has partly been transferred to a supranational instituation, but that institution is still in control of the currency and acting based on rules defined by national government and meant to represent their interests).

It is not hard to see how a new asset class which could take that instrument away from governments hands in times of crisis would affect a government’s ability to handle a crisis. So yes there could well be situations whereby an economy which could be salvaged if these instruments are available would crash completely otherwise.

I would also add that legal cryptos are not an issue as such. The issue would be with legal cryptos which are outside of the government’s control.

smacl wrote: »

The fact that crypto gets used in situations where the local currency is suffering from hyper inflation is in no way a fault of crypto currency, nor is there any indication that crypto currency a root cause of such a problem.

Of course, I don’t think anyone disagrees with that and I was certainly not arguing otherwise.

What I was saying though is that the existence of crypto out of the government’s control would at the same time amplify the issue and take a critical national sovereignty instrument away from the government’s hand (monetary policiy). And thus that pressure would be very strong to make these cryptos illegal.

Hence my point that that while I 100% agree this type of crisis could be a catalyst crypto adoption (good for crypto), if could also be a trigger for decisions to make it illegal (bad for crypto).

Bob24 wrote: »

Thus my point that that while we 100% agree this type of crisis could be a catalyst crypto adoption (good for crypto), if could also be a trigger for decisions to make it illegal (bad for crypto).

My hope is that with one of these crises (and there's always one somewhere in the world at a given time), the powers that be fail in their clampdown on it and crypto flourishes. If the use case is demonstrated in such conditions, it may become more of a default move for people that find themselves in those circumstances in the next country to suffer hyper-inflation / financial mismanagement.

makeorbrake wrote: »

My hope is that with one of these crises (and there's always one somewhere in the world at a given time), the powers that be fail in their clampdown on it and crypto flourishes. If the use case is demonstrated in such conditions, it may become more of a default move for people that find themselves in those circumstances in the next country to suffer hyper-inflation / financial mismanagement.

It is a double edged sword though. If what you wish for happens crypto would indeed help people protect their existing wealth (and maybe make a few of us on this thread a bit wealthier if we are holding some of that new global and trusted store of value). But it could also lead to much harsher crashes of their countries’ economies and hamper their future ability to generate new wealth.

Let’s move away from Venezuela for a minute and think of Greece. It still hasn’t recovered at all from the previous crisis and if another one was to come I honestly don’t think another bail out would be possible. Let’s assume I’m right and Greece was forced out of the EZ and ending up with a fast depreciating currency. Now let’s say all the Greeks resort to buying bitcoins to escape capital control measures the government would inevitably put in place. What happens is that the Greek currency crashes even more, goes beyond recovery, the economy becomes and empty shell, the government - no matter how good - is not able to do anything at all about it, and all the national wealth becomes entries in a distributed ledger. And what’s coming next for the population is pretty bad: they might have salvaged their existing wealth but their country could be in ruins.

This is obviously a very complex issue and deserves better consideration than a few posts here, but I think people really need to open up to the possible negative impacts of what they see as a way for them to take control (they might have control individually, but a collection of individuals using their control to defend their interest is not necessarily better than a centralised entity - even if that entity is imperfect in its way to defend the general interest).

cnocbui wrote: »

They are having a massive financial crisis in Venezuela with 10 million percent inflation forecast - Bitcoin use there has surged massively as a result.

*Trading has increased

Bitcoin doesn't get much "use" outside of trading/speculating, anywhere

cnocbui wrote: »

Absolute rubbish. Drugs are illegal, alcohol is illegal in many places, prositution is illegal in many places - etc, etc, etc. All these illegal things are available in the places where they are illegal.

If done globally, regulators could wipe the secondary market value of cryptos by regulating against any banks or any financial institutions doing business with crypto exchanges. Anyway, it's unlikely, not something to be overly worried about

cnocbui

Dohnjoe wrote: »

*Trading has increased

Bitcoin doesn't get much "use" outside of trading/speculating, anywhere

When was the last time you exchanged physical gold in a transaction? I wish people would get off this currency bandwagon as if it's the only use there is. Bitcoin is a potentially better store of wealth than gold.

cnocbui

Dohnjoe wrote: »

If done globally, regulators could wipe the secondary market value of cryptos by regulating against any banks or any financial institutions doing business with crypto exchanges. Anyway, it's unlikely, not something to be overly worried about

To borrow a line from Top Gun - you crack me up. "If done globally" pigs could fly.

cnocbui wrote: »

When was the last time you exchanged physical gold in a transaction? I wish people would get off this currency bandwagon as if it's the only use there is. Bitcoin is a potentially better store of wealth than gold.

It's terrible as "a store of wealth" - it's literally one of the world's most volatile assets. You couldn't use it as collateral anywhere, it's not rated, if it were it'd be about 10 levels below "dog****" rating

I'm sorry, but that's the reality of it

And apart from "novelty use" and blackmarket it really isn't used for anything else but speculation/trading

cnocbui wrote: »

To borrow a line from Top Gun - you crack me up. "If done globally" pigs could fly.

If the US alone decided to regulate against banks/institutions doing business with crypto exchanges the effect would be pretty sharp

If the US and EU (and Asian countries) acted to regulate together, lets just say we'd be lucky to see 2011 prices

That said, it's unlikely. Crypto might be "around forever" but the value of them is highly fickle

Buzzkillingtons. My money says crypto is going to spike on the back of a no brexit. Pure fantasy island stuff but sure that's the whole point.

Bob24 wrote: »

Let’s move away from Venezuela for a minute and think of Greece. It still hasn’t recovered at all from the previous crisis and if another one was to come I honestly don’t think another bail out would be possible. Let’s assume I’m right and Greece was forced out of the EZ and ending up with a fast depreciating currency. Now let’s say all the Greeks resort to buying bitcoins to escape capital control measures the government would inevitably put in place. What happens is that the Greek currency crashes even more, goes beyond recovery, the economy becomes and empty shell, the government - no matter how good - is not able to do anything at all about it, and all the national wealth becomes entries in a distributed ledger. And what’s coming next for the population is pretty bad: they might have salvaged their existing wealth but their country could be in ruins.

It's an interesting point for sure. Firstly, Greece would have been less likely to get itself into this situation in the first place if it were not for the fractional reserve banking system and monetary policy set for Frankfurt and not Athens.

If FIAT was to lose favour, of course it would be a short/medium term calamity. But by and large, this happens with all FIAT currencies in the long run. People should remember that when they perceive their current currency as being the height of stability.

So, I don't disagree with you - their current FIAT currency would be in ruins but it would be a result of FIAT money and FIAT monetary policy - not the fault of crypto.

It's also worth looking beyond that and considering what the landscape looks like with no FIAT currency in the picture at all. i.e. beyond the inglorious exit of FIAT currency (were that to happen).

Bob24 wrote: »

This is obviously a very complex issue and deserves better consideration than a few posts here, but I think people really need to open up to the possible negative impacts of what they see as a way for them to take control (they might have control individually, but a collection of individuals using their control to defend their interest is not necessarily better than a centralised entity - even if that entity is imperfect in its way to defend the general interest).

Its a very interesting scenario and one that I don't think enough work has been done on. You could make the argument that we have NO monetary control in Ireland right now. The euro is designed for Frankfurt's needs and not Ireland's.
You could also make the argument that Bitcoin inflation is known going into the future whereas with FIAT interest rates, we don't know what rates will be applied from one moment to the next (of course, this assumes that crypto price volatility will have settled by that point).

Other than that, do we need economies to be cyclical? Is boom and bust good for society?

Dohnjoe wrote:

If the US alone decided to regulate against banks/institutions doing business with crypto exchanges the effect would be pretty sharp
If the US and EU (and Asian countries) acted to regulate together, lets just say we'd be lucky to see 2011 prices
That said, it's unlikely.

I agree completely. It would not kill it but it would retard the rate of progress it was making in society overall. What makes you think it is an unlikely scenario though? I think its still possible we could see of a wave of push back yet. Maybe they want to get us all on Central Bank Digital Currency first - and then slam decentralized crypto?

Dohnjoe wrote:

*Trading has increased
Bitcoin doesn't get much "use" outside of trading/speculating, anywhere

That's 'local bitcoin' trading in Venezuela. In this instance, it is being used for remittances. The crisis has resulted in the largest forced migration in South America in recent history. Those that remain at home are being supported by Venezuelan family members in neighbouring countries.

makeorbrake wrote: »

I agree completely. It would not kill it but it would retard the rate of progress it was making in society overall. What makes you think it is an unlikely scenario though? I think its still possible we could see of a wave of push back yet. Maybe they want to get us all on Central Bank Digital Currency first - and then slam decentralized crypto?

All just my opinion

It hasn't been a total blind spot for regulators, they have been constantly addressing crypto (both positively and negatively), and differently across diff nations and regions. Also it's becoming more interwoven with financial and industry tech - to regulate against crypto could impact the tech - impacting many current projects (including ongoing projects that rely on e.g. Eth, such as various stock exchange and market infrastructure experiments/developments)

2017/2018 was a peak of dodgy exchanges, weak KYC, scam ICO's, etc - if they were going to act globally that's when it would have happened (in my opinion)

However, from working opposite regulators on a daily basis, the one type of crypto I would not touch (from a speculative point of view) are the untraceable privacy type coins.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

It hasn't been a total blind spot for regulators, they have been constantly addressing crypto (both positively and negatively), and differently across diff nations and regions. Also it's becoming more interwoven with financial and industry tech - to regulate against crypto could impact the tech - impacting many current projects (including ongoing projects that rely on e.g. Eth, such as various stock exchange and market infrastructure experiments/developments)

For sure - that's been ongoing throughout 2018 and I'd hope that progressive regulation that doesn't stifle innovation continues throughout 2019 as regulatory frameworks remain incomplete in most jurisdictions.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

2017/2018 was a peak of dodgy exchanges, weak KYC, scam ICO's, etc - if they were going to act globally that's when it would have happened (in my opinion)

Hard to say. There were many states that had a blanket ban and then softened their approach a bit. Then others that pressed hard such as China and India. Most of them weren't equipt to deal with it in 2017 in any event. Furthermore, it isn't exactly a 'threat' right now. However, who's to say - nothing ever stays the same and governments tend to like the ability to control and manipulate.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

However, from working opposite regulators on a daily basis, the one type of crypto I would not touch (from a speculative point of view) are the untraceable privacy type coins.

Well, this links in to my previous point above. Bitcoin can be used in a way similar to Monero, Zcash, etc. if the user goes about it the right way. IF all decentralized permissionless cryptocurrency networks are viewed in the same terms, then there's likely to be push back.

Ethereum your drunk wtf complete break out against the normal run of the market, anyone know why..

JohnnyFlash

Vitalik was spotted eating dinner - huge if true.

He could do with a few burgers alright seriously looking likely to hit 150 massive run.

Grumpypants

Charts had Feb 18th as the turning point. Up up up from here.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Grumpypants wrote: »

Charts had Feb 18th as the turning point. Up up up from here.

Up to where, tell me something nice.

rapul

Gerald Obedient Manicurist wrote: »

Up to where, tell me something nice.

I know right, been waiting for this, hopefully stays up now!

Next resistance is 140.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Serious day. Long may this run continue.

Caught a bit of luck there, normally I never trade but had to sell Ark as it was ridiculously high for no good reason, sold it for Eth which I didn't Tether. Now Ark is (as expected) moving down while luckily Eth is moving upwards. Did that this afternoon, now am at a minimum +25% margin if I buy back into Ark

Grumpypants

Gerald Obedient Manicurist wrote: »

Up to where, tell me something nice.

250- 330k in about 2-3 years time.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Grumpypants wrote: »

250- 330k in about 2-3 years time.

That'll do, thanks.