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Border Poll discussion

segarox

i hope some people from northern ireland are reading this because it concerns them.

i've been watching a few videos on what might happen to the north following brexit and one of the options is to reunify with ireland, which i believe, is not everyone cup of tea. me personally as an irishman, i have no strong feelings about this but i think it'd be nice to see a complete ireland on a map. however, i think i may have seen an option that hasn't been considered.

what if the north was to vote to rejoin ireland but in name only; establish yourselves as a separate state with your own government, your own police force (technically you have that already; Stormont and the PSNI) and your own currency.

could have the benefits of staying in the EU and not have the unpleasant taste of irish in your mouths. or am i talking rubbish? please, i'd to hear what you have to say.

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FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

The Good Friday Agreement is 20 years old. It has lasted longer than the Treaty of Versailles.

However, we haven't had a border poll yet because there is no sign of the people of the North wanting one. Why shouldn't we consider if there are different options out there?

The GFA works only if it is a process and it has ground to a destabilising halt over 10 or 12 years with a lot of things (including a border poll) that it should have achieved not achieved.

Real Rad

I reckon with Brexit, I should have enough saved by next October to buy NI.

Charles Babbage

murphaph wrote: »

I tend to agree. Independence seems a very unlikely outcome for NI. It'll stay in a UK that pulled back from the Brexit brink or it'll end up voting to join the Republic in a post Brexit apocalypse where its standard of living has taken a severe blow.

Quite. However, the exact exent of the post Brexit decline in living standards is not the only issue, such an apocalypse would imply utter contempt for NI by London and a lot of middle ground voters would not see the UK as a having a future when central government treats you in that way. There was a belief that in the Major/Blair period that London was trying, this now all seems to be gone. It is notable in each poll the increasing proportion of the pro EU middle ground who want a UI if the UK goes lunatic.

I expect them to do the bleedin' obvious though and secure whatever NI arrangements that are required and then have GB do a Canada deal or whatever suits them.

An Independent NI as a transition entity for a few years is the only way a UI will happen peacefully imo

.

Perhaps you should inform your opinion with reality.

the_syco

segarox wrote: »

what if the north was to vote to rejoin ireland but in name only; establish yourselves as a separate state with your own government, your own police force (technically you have that already; Stormont and the PSNI) and your own currency.

And who'd fund this sh|tshow? Currently NI is funded by RoI and the rest of the UK.

An Independent NI won't happen, as it can't fund itself.

VinLieger

New study claims we would see a drop in south in living stamdards of 15%

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748?mode=amp

If these facts were made clear to everyone i doubt we would see it pass here, the north needs to get their act together.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

New study claims we would see a drop in south in living stamdards of 15%

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748?mode=amp

If these facts were made clear to everyone i doubt we would see it pass here, the north needs to get their act together.

If it starts with the premise that 11 or 12 billion will have to be found to run northern Ireland then it is wrong.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it starts with the premise that 11 or 12 billion will have to be found to run northern Ireland then it is wrong.

It seems that study is underestimating the effect on living standards in the South, as it doesn't account for the cost of increasing public service pay and social welfare in the North to match the South. 15% cut in living standards is optimistic.

It is likely that places like Monaghan would become economic wastelands under unification.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

It is likely that places like Monaghan would become economic wastelands under unification.

That happened because of partition. And only partially recovered through massive cost to the Irish exchequer and the EU.

Imreoir2

blanch152 wrote: »

It is likely that places like Monaghan would become economic wastelands under unification.

Anything other than "just coz" to back up that assertion?

blanch152

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Anything other than "just coz" to back up that assertion?

If the South suffers a 15% decrease in living standards, that will disproportionately affect rural areas like Monaghan which will suffer a bigger hit, maybe 30%. The loss of the lucrative cross-border smuggling option will hit the local black economy hard as well.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If the South suffers a 15% decrease in living standards, that will disproportionately affect rural areas like Monaghan which will suffer a bigger hit, maybe 30%. The loss of the lucrative cross-border smuggling option will hit the local black economy hard as well.

Seriously, is this the politics forum or AH?

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seriously, is this the politics forum or AH?

The 15% is a general figure, if its say 15% in dublin we know it will be more elsewhere much like we saw post 2008

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

The 15% is a general figure, if its say 15% in dublin we know it will be more elsewhere much like we saw post 2008

It was this bit I was reacting to:

blanch152 wrote:

The loss of the lucrative cross-border smuggling option will hit the local black economy hard as well

Laundering of fuel will continue as long as dye is used to differentiate it.

Importation of cheap cigarettes will also continue and isn't occuring because of the partition border.
The UK as a whole estimates cigarette smuggling is around 2 billion pounds worth for the whole UK with northern Ireland being just a part of that figure.

Smuggled product from northern Ireland does not typically benefit the 'local' economy at all, as I and others living close to the border can go and get things ourselves quite legally. i.e. heating oil, alcohol, groceries, tools and other things.

Smuggling typically benefits those who cannot easily cross the border, those living much further south.

The post was an ill-judged attempt to scare monger about the removal of the border.

View

judeboy101 wrote: »

Green flag with a golden harp, the tricolour highlights our differences, the original flag of the republic doesn't.

The original flag associated with Ireland was blue with a golden harp. It is still in use in the U.K.’s royal standard and, in a modernised form of the harp, in our President’s standard.

Anthracite

View wrote: »

The original flag associated with Ireland was blue with a golden harp. It is still in use in the U.K.’s royal standard and, in a modernised form of the harp, in our President’s standard.

I suppose, as with the 'British Isles', the question is who was it associated with us by?

View

Anthracite wrote: »

I suppose, as with the 'British Isles', the question is who was it associated with us by?

The question isn’t really relevant as it was used for hundreds of years by people here in Ireland as their flag.

Anthracite

View wrote: »

The question isn’t really relevant as it was used for hundreds of years by people here in Ireland as their flag.

I'm curious - by whom?

View

Anthracite wrote: »

I'm curious - by whom?

By the government and people of Ireland.

What do you think people used as a flag prior to 1916 (which is when the Tricolour started to become a popular flag and even then it was very much associated solely with one strand of public opinion here).

An Claidheamh

View wrote: »

By the government and people of Ireland.

What do you think people used as a flag prior to 1916 (which is when the Tricolour started to become a popular flag and even then it was very much associated solely with one strand of public opinion here).

View, there was no government of Ireland to actually use this harp flag.

And, can you tell us all what public opinion the tricolour does not represent?

murphaph

An Claidheamh wrote: »

View, there was no government of Ireland to actually use this harp flag.

And, can you tell us all what public opinion the tricolour does not represent?

The tricolour would never represent unionists. You just can't undo the fact it was draped over the coffins of almost every IRA man buried. I would have no problem changing these things if it helped smoothen the transition.

The anthem would have to be changed too.

I would actually hope that unification could be used to reform our own government, especially local and regional government. Just appending NI would be a huge wasted opportunity.

VinLieger

murphaph wrote: »

The tricolour would never represent unionists. You just can't undo the fact it was draped over the coffins of almost every IRA man buried. I would have no problem changing these things if it helped smoothen the transition.

The anthem would have to be changed too.

I would actually hope that unification could be used to reform our own government, especially local and regional government. Just appending NI would be a huge wasted opportunity.

If it was part of the deal that the flag and anthem are changed there is no way the border referendum would ever pass in the south

breatheme

murphaph wrote: »

The tricolour would never represent unionists. You just can't undo the fact it was draped over the coffins of almost every IRA man buried. I would have no problem changing these things if it helped smoothen the transition.

The anthem would have to be changed too.

I would actually hope that unification could be used to reform our own government, especially local and regional government. Just appending NI would be a huge wasted opportunity.

VinLieger wrote: »

If it was part of the deal that the flag and anthem are changed there is no way the border referendum would ever pass in the south

Quoting posts from the Brexit thread because I didn't feel like derailing...

As a no deal Brexit becomes more and more likely, are these things that Ireland should be considering?

According to this poll, in the event of no deal, 44% vs 35% percent would support having a referendum. The rest is don't knows. So excluding the don't knows that means 56% would be in favour of a border poll, although that doesn't mean it may pass.

According to the BBC, several cabinet ministers have said that would mean reunification is likely, however the Secretary of State remains unconvinced.

cgcsb

breatheme wrote: »

According to the BBC, several cabinet ministers have said that would mean reunification is likely, however the Secretary of State remains unconvinced.

Lol, the secretary of state is a yungwan on work experience.

blanch152

breatheme wrote: »

Quoting posts from the Brexit thread because I didn't feel like derailing...

As a no deal Brexit becomes more and more likely, are these things that Ireland should be considering?

According to this poll, in the event of no deal, 44% vs 35% percent would support having a referendum. The rest is don't knows. So excluding the don't knows that means 56% would be in favour of a border poll, although that doesn't mean it may pass.

According to the BBC, several cabinet ministers have said that would mean reunification is likely, however the Secretary of State remains unconvinced.

That poll wasn't a Northern Ireland poll, it was a poll in the South. A figure of 35% in the South not even wanting a Border poll is very interesting, but not in the way you think.

As for the BBC report, clearly an attempt to scare the DUP into supporting TM's deal at the last moment.

breatheme

blanch152 wrote: »

That poll wasn't a Northern Ireland poll, it was a poll in the South. A figure of 35% in the South not even wanting a Border poll is very interesting, but not in the way you think.

As for the BBC report, clearly an attempt to scare the DUP into supporting TM's deal at the last moment.

You are correct, here is an actual poll from NI, in a report from LT.

In this one, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, 48% of respondents said they'd definitely vote for a UI... plus another 7& who would probably vote the same way.

johnnyskeleton

cgcsb wrote: »

Lol, the secretary of state is a yungwan on work experience.

Mod Note:

Please read the charter re: the standards of debate required before posting here again.

[Deleted User]

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The GFA works only if it is a process and it has ground to a destabilising halt over 10 or 12 years with a lot of things (including a border poll) that it should have achieved not achieved.

A process? to what end?

blanch152

breatheme wrote: »

You are correct, here is an actual poll from NI, in a report from LT.

In this one, in the event of a No Deal Brexit, 48% of respondents said they'd definitely vote for a UI... plus another 7& who would probably vote the same way.

Question 8 is very interesting too.

60% to 29% would vote to remain in the UK if Brexit doesn't happen. You would have to assume that a soft Corbyn Brexit, which preserved the CU and SM would result in a similar outcome. Such a negotiated future arrangement remains the most likely long-term outcome in my opinion.

breatheme

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree, because based on the current state of affairs, I think that a cliff-edge no deal Brexit is the most likely outcome.

I do think that a UK in the EU negates the possibility of a border poll to happen in the decades to come.

downcow

VinLieger wrote: »

If it was part of the deal that the flag and anthem are changed there is no way the border referendum would ever pass in the south

Interesting on here people’s perspective of UI is that roi absorbs NI. Well I am assuming that when you say the anthem and flag is precious and cannot be changed you are not referring to the flag and anthem of NI but rather roi. This is a tad arrogant is it not? If there was unification why would you anthem and flag be more precious than mine ? Serious question that will help me understand what this ireland of equals within the Eu would look like.