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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

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Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo and Kerry

30 to 40 mm rainfall expected with risk of spot flooding, especially on coasts and hills.

Valid: Friday 08 February 2019 00:01 to Friday 08 February 2019 23:59

Issued: Thursday 07 February 2019 18:58

Updated: Thursday 07 February 2019 18:58

Snow Garden

aisling86 wrote: »

Is Erik not going to pack a punch or is everyone waiting to nowcast.... thought it would be alot busier here tonight.

I have noticed a general apathy towards weather warnings and storms in my Galway workplace. This time last year people would be all chat about an upcoming storm but nobody mentioned Erik to me this week. Most are oblivious. That said, Storm Ali caught a lot of people off guard.

Storm 10

aisling86 wrote: »

Is Erik not going to pack a punch or is everyone waiting to nowcast.... thought it would be alot busier here tonight.

Not going to impact the East Coast but if it was !!!!

aisling86

Marengo wrote: »

Where are you located Aisling?

I'm mid cork, not expecting too much disruption, but my OH commutes to Tralee so I reckon he could have an interesting drive.
Was just wondering in general really, it looks like it's due to drop some serious pressure, could definitely catch a few off guard alright.

Little snowy old me

Absolutely unnecessary to name this storm. It will be a typical heavy winter gale on the exposed west coast. I guarantee tomorrow people. Will be asking, yet again, what was the fuss about. Weather warnings have become a joke and I dread the day when a serious storm does hit us and no one pays any heed due to apathy and I fear the scenes of death and destruction.

JanuarySnowstor

Interesting Jo on net weather mentioning that Met Eireann name storms on wind speed whereas Met in UK go on likely impact. Hard to ignore the feeling that they also believe storms are named too easily. The whole idea of naming storms needs to be reviewed. It isn't working correctly and as others have said it will lead to apathy and dis interest when a proper storm comes along!!

Bio Mech

What I have learned on this thread, and on others recently, is basically no matter what ME do half the people on here will be giving out.

If they don’t name it it will be “cant believe they didn’t name this. Its much worse here than storm X last month”

If they do name it “can’t believe they named this its only going to be a normal windy day”

That’s life I guess.

KingJeremy

Bio Mech wrote: »

What I have learned on this thread, and on others recently, is basically no matter what ME do half the people on here will be giving out.

If they don’t name it it will be “cant believe they didn’t name this. Its much worse here than storm X last month”

If they do name it “can’t believe they named this its only going to be a normal windy day”

That’s life I guess.

Well said. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t.

sdanseo

Bio Mech wrote: »

What I have learned on this thread, and on others recently, is basically no matter what ME do half the people on here will be giving out.

If they don’t name it it will be “cant believe they didn’t name this. Its much worse here than storm X last month”

If they do name it “can’t believe they named this its only going to be a normal windy day”

That’s life I guess.

Indeed. Rather than simply engage in the moaning, offer a solution.
In this case the solution is very simply that the switch to impact based warning system needs to happen as soon as possible.

MÉ staff are no doubt wonderful but the red tape in any quango requires a chainsaw to cut through and get anything done. Combine this with the apathetic Irish "ah it'll be grand" attitude and you have a process which could be done in a week taking half a decade. Patently ridiculous situation.

Marengo

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Absolutely unnecessary to name this storm. It will be a typical heavy winter gale on the exposed west coast. I guarantee tomorrow people. Will be asking, yet again, what was the fuss about. Weather warnings have become a joke and I dread the day when a serious storm does hit us and no one pays any heed due to apathy and I fear the scenes of death and destruction.

The system has been agreed on, if something meets the criteria, it should be named. If met offices feel we're over naming Atlantic depressions that wouldn't get a mention in the 80s it's up to them together to change the system.

sryanbruen

I had a long discussion of the storm naming system on Twitter yesterday. The below points pretty much are what my opinion on it is.

I like the idea of naming storms. As a weather historian, I find a naming storm system useful. It's easier to say Storm Ali for example than "a deep area of low pressure on 19th September 2018". I can recall storms easier this way too.

However, such a system needs to be treated with great sensibility. The way the current Mets (UKMO and Met Éireann) do it in my opinion is not very sensible (especially Met Éireann) and really inconsistent (especially UKMO).

Both agencies have entirely different criteria for naming storms. The UKMO's naming system is impact based whilst Met Éireann's is solely based on numerical criteria for gusts or mean wind speeds. I think the UKMO's way of doing it here is 100% superior but even it has problems.

There are many factors that affect how severe or impactful a storm can be. Factors include:

- Time of the day. If it's during the day like Ali when people are commuting and transport services are on, there will be impacts felt compared to at night when there aren't many people.

- Time of year. If it's during mid to late Winter and there are no leaves left on the trees, there will be less of an impact. In early to mid-Autumn when trees are in full leaf, big storms could be very impactful on roads.

- Geography. Is the area of likely impact inland or coastal? Coastal regions are exposed to quite strong gusts whilst strong gusts are relatively rare in inland areas. Fairly moderate winds for coastal regions could be considered strong to very strong in inland areas.

There's more factors but those are the main 3 I can think of. I wish Met Éireann would take a leaf out of the UK Met Office's book here and move to an impact based system as a result. However, that does not mean the UK Met Office does not have any problems, it certainly does.

The UK Met Office is inconsistent. There have been some very impactful storms that were not named (most notably 18 January 2018) and there have been some storms with little impact yet they were named. Met Éireann has a similar issue - mostly with the latter than former.

The current state of the naming storm system has a lot of issues that need to be resolved. One would wonder how on earth semi-state bodies like these Met agencies would be this unprofessional.

The naming storm system is seen as an advantage to the mainstream media in going over the top with scaremongering headlines. I understand this point but then again, the mainstream media is not really in the power of the Met agencies. Mainstream media articles like such should be illegal to be honest.

Last point here being that Met Éireann need to improve on their warning system majorly so. Giving a red or amber warning for the entire country when some areas will barely get a warranted yellow (using their silly fixed numerical criteria) is pathetically lazy.

Issue the necessary warnings for the areas likely to be impacted by the storm. Ophelia was not a stir in a teacup in my opinion but it was quite overhyped by the media and the fact that Met Éireann issued a red warning for the entire country which was not warranted.

Oops69

Are we in for more hysterical news reports from 'The Prom " in Salthill for the millionth time in the last couple of years ?

YanSno

I think the best system to name storms would be using wind speed scale , which i think met are currently using. If they drop below the required scale should be called With an EX. For example if Eric wind speed dropped below, it should be called Ex Eric. I think this would work as the population would know what to expect if it's an ex storm or an actual storm.

gozunda

Wind just starting to get up now ...

Villain

Potential for a Stingjet off the northwest coast?

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JCX BXC

Oops69 wrote: »

Are we in for more hysterical news reports from 'The Prom " in Salthill for the millionth time in the last couple of years ?

Likely not (thank god!), as high tide is quite early!

M.T. Cranium

This may be one of those events that verifies as an orange level warning at coastal stations but seems more like a yellow level event to most of the population. However, I think it will play out as borderline yellow/orange for significant portions of the population in Connacht and north Clare. Bear in mind, this is coming in quite early, peak gusts may be around 0600-0900h (09-12 for west Ulster).

typhoony

more interesting than the wind is the potential for surprise snowfall around Kildare, Carlow, wexford and Waterford on Sunday morning

Meteorite58

Some gust predictions, ARPEGE and ICON very strong in the W /NW , FMI- HIRLAM has backed off a bit. ECM has also brought strongest winds to the extreme W , N/W.

M.T. Cranium

re surprise snowfall: I agree and we have that possibility covered in the Boards forecast. I do think it will be partly limited by elevation but the potential is there for some snow in parts of the southeast by Sunday morning.

Meteorite58

Euro 4 looks very strong along the coasts for a time

Defaulter1831

Any potential for surprise south Midlands? By that I mean gusts of 115-120km rather than maxing 95km or 100km?

Surely not.. I'm thinking, but for the experts is there any real possibility?

Oscar Bravo

a rough few hours for Grace going on them Meteorite!

squarecircles

oh im looking foward to this,

Meteorite58

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

a rough few hours for Grace going on them Meteorite!

The Islands look like they are going to get a battering alright.

The ECM 12Z did change it's track considerably keeping the center more offshore. This seems a big correction over previous runs, other European models over the last couple of runs showing much higher wind speeds and the track nearer to the coast. As I type the ARPEGE 18Z rolling out and it has tracked a bit further off the coast as has the WRF. These more in line with the HIRLAM now I reckon.

pauldry

Possible wind gusts

Mace Hd 72knots
Newport 70knots
Belmullet 68 knots
Malin Head 62 knots
Finner 58 knots

Meteorite58

Latest ARPEGE rolling out now, looking slightly down early morning but still very strong but the winds later Fri evening look stronger on this run with the warning levels possibly needing to be revised higher for tomorrow evening / Sat morning.

Oscar Bravo

Knock TAF issued at 11pm forecasting gusts up to 55 knots between 8am and 11am.

Cork max gusts 55 knots(5am to 7am)
Shannon max gust 50knots(10am to 2pm)
Dublin max 50 knots between 8am and 4pm.

Windy day ahead, be interesting to see the gusts at Belmullet.

igCorcaigh

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Latest ARPEGE rolling out now, looking slightly down early morning but still very strong but the winds later Fri evening look stronger on this run with the warning levels possibly needing to be revised higher for tomorrow evening / Sat morning.

Aha, sting in the tail then!

Meteorite58

AROME 18Z just out. That would be a wild night across the country Fri evening / Sat morning. Looks far stronger than the initall winds from the storm for many. Would bring more very heavy rain into Northern counties also. Would need to see other models verify this.

Now that would be a sting in the tail.