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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

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YanSno

The Northern factor is going to be present with this low. Models will start pushing it northwards as we go on. North Western Coast will get strong winds but nothing severe as this system will peak intensity 600km out to our west.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z has shifted slightly N bringing the strongest winds into the W, showing up around 120 km/h on the coasts, 80 to 100 km/h overland, possible higher gusts up to 110 km/h overland in places , more so higher ground. Not nailed down yet. More tweaks to come perhaps.

To note second round of strong winds in the W early Sat morning.

M.T. Cranium

The miss-to-north factor may be less relevant with this low if the modelling is correct as the strongest gradients are further from the low centre than is often the case, at both surface and upper levels. In terms of the strongest winds, it looks like a direct hit on Connacht and west Ulster. Assuming the track is fairly well defined now, it becomes a matter of assessing whether that tight gradient stays around 53-55 N or begins to move out towards the low itself. But if you look at most model output, the circulation is fairly benign within 100 miles of the low. The low has now developed east of Newfoundland and is around 49N 47W.

Comhrá

JCX BXC wrote: »

What model is that?

ARPEGE. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=42&mode=11&map=330

arpegeuk-11-42-0.png?06-17

Darwin

The last named storm was Deirdre on Dec 15th, but we did have another significant enough wind event on Dec 18th that was never named. Looks like first of 2019 will be Friday then!

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?

Not sure Munster will be too bad but Connacht and Ulster could be Orange alright.

squarecircles

Villain wrote: »

ECMWF has shifted a little but still showing damaging gusts, especially in West

you reckon its going to be an orange warning for the west?

have to dust off the storm names.

Larbre34

So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?

SleetAndSnow

Looked pretty severe on the west and south coasts there on the 6.1 news

Villain

ECMWF has shifted a little but still showing damaging gusts, especially in West

JCX BXC

What model is that?

squarecircles

Rebelbrowser

By way of update, on the 12zs only Hirlam has this centred on Ireland - UKMO, GFS, ICON and Aperge all show it going into Scotland mostly. Still windy here.

Rebelbrowser

Looks further north at 6am on Friday on the Euro04 model

Villain

Just coming into view on Hi Res models now, HIRLAM chart

Will be interesting to see the track this one takes.

SleetAndSnow

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Really don't want to derail things but aren't gusts over 130km a criteria for a red ?

Weather Element Criteria for Red – Severe Weather Warnings
1. Wind Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

So yes. Considering what the charts were showing yesterday he was right I think, they have since lowered windspeeds since last night though

Reckless Abandonment

irishrover99 wrote: »

I think he was talking about a red warning.

Really don't want to derail things but aren't gusts over 130km a criteria for a red ?

irishrover99

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen

I think he was talking about a red warning.

Reckless Abandonment

irishrover99 wrote: »

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

In fairness I think they were referring to the charts been shown. Not what will happen

irishrover99

boocat wrote: »

Certainly looks nasty . Red on them charts won't be the only red well see if that comes off.
At least the weather is looking interesting
(Hopefully not that interesting)

What sort of nonsense is this.
Its going to be a wet and windy day.
That's all.
You really don't need the Daily Express much these days when you could just look at some of the comments here.

Graces7

Artane2002 wrote: »

Surprisingly it's a yes, the weekend looks cold with the potential for wintry showers on high ground. Not proper cold air but colder than the moment

We have a ferocious windchill out here now met ie says 4 but feels much lower than that,

offshore west mayo

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

Very windy on Friday with possibly storm force winds along parts of the coast.

Valid: Friday 08 February 2019 06:00 to Friday 08 February 2019 20:00

Issued: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Updated: Wednesday 06 February 2019 11:00

Loughc

Artane2002 wrote: »

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

Or how airports deem when to ground in flights, in any weather risk the first call should be to contact your airline company, they're the only ones who can advise on flights.

Artane2002

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Because the answer will always be "we don't know". We can never be sure of how storms will behave from this far out.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Thread title says "chat", I dont see what the problem is asking if the weather could affect a flight, heaven forbid

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Need to keep it civil and stay on topic please.

Rebelbrowser

Billy Mays wrote: »

Fair enough, I can understand that would get a bit tiresome. Tbh the only weather thread I've ever followed on here was the beast from the east one last year. Other than that I never look at the weather forum. I logged onto boards this morning and saw this thread on the front page so just thought I'd asked for an opinion from someone.

Apologies to GoneHome for the aggressive reply.

As a regular on here, and with a flight out of Cork at 2.30pm on Friday, i was worried too to be fair to you. Think even at that time (more in the current progged time for the storm) I should be fine. Flying to England and with those winds blowing that direction too (albeit not necssarily at 30,000 ft I appreciate) i reckon it'll just be a much quicker flight!

Meteorite58

More of a spread in the models this morning. ECM is the most consistent tracking the center along the W / NW coasts keeping the strongest winds more to the Southern half of the country, not as strong as earlier runs but still up to 120 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 110 overland strongest in coastal counties.

ICON, ARPEGE tracking bit further N keeping strongest winds in W / NW.

UKMO gone very much more a Northerly track on it's own.

Would stick close to the ECM on this and lean towards ARPEGE

Bit to ho yet to pin this one down.....as ever.

JCX BXC

I never understand why people think a storm will last 2/3 days. They never ever do, and even when they do only the largest cause disruption for 2/3 days.

And with wind events, we can't actually tell you, as often it's a nowcast in relation to storms and disruption.