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Storm Erik : Friday 8th February 2019

ninebeanrows

ECMWF has been consistent now at progging a significant low pressure system near Ireland for Friday.

On the latest 12z it has sped up its progression a little and now has a significant storm hitting the spine of Ireland on Friday.

One to watch.

ECU1-72.GIF?05-0

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Larbre34

So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?

squarecircles

Villain wrote: »

ECMWF has shifted a little but still showing damaging gusts, especially in West

you reckon its going to be an orange warning for the west?

have to dust off the storm names.

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

So Orange for Munster and Connacht and Yellow for the rest? And probably a name by this time tomorrow?

Not sure Munster will be too bad but Connacht and Ulster could be Orange alright.

Darwin

The last named storm was Deirdre on Dec 15th, but we did have another significant enough wind event on Dec 18th that was never named. Looks like first of 2019 will be Friday then!

Comhrá

JCX BXC wrote: »

What model is that?

ARPEGE. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=42&mode=11&map=330

arpegeuk-11-42-0.png?06-17

M.T. Cranium

The miss-to-north factor may be less relevant with this low if the modelling is correct as the strongest gradients are further from the low centre than is often the case, at both surface and upper levels. In terms of the strongest winds, it looks like a direct hit on Connacht and west Ulster. Assuming the track is fairly well defined now, it becomes a matter of assessing whether that tight gradient stays around 53-55 N or begins to move out towards the low itself. But if you look at most model output, the circulation is fairly benign within 100 miles of the low. The low has now developed east of Newfoundland and is around 49N 47W.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z has shifted slightly N bringing the strongest winds into the W, showing up around 120 km/h on the coasts, 80 to 100 km/h overland, possible higher gusts up to 110 km/h overland in places , more so higher ground. Not nailed down yet. More tweaks to come perhaps.

To note second round of strong winds in the W early Sat morning.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z

YanSno

The Northern factor is going to be present with this low. Models will start pushing it northwards as we go on. North Western Coast will get strong winds but nothing severe as this system will peak intensity 600km out to our west.

JanuarySnowstor

It looks a bit of a yawnfest and has downgraded enough from yesterday to mean wet and windy!!
Next

gozunda

Met eireann RTE News 6.00pm show a second low approaching much futher South with Kerry Limerick Clare Galway all taking a hit. The more northerly low is shown merging around midday Friday just off the northwest coast with the low approaching from a more southerly direction

Meteorite58

HIRLAM 12Z , quite similar to the ECM

typhoony

GFS 18Z has the Low slightly weaker, now only bordering on Orange alert.

Little snowy old me

Winter 2018/2019 will be notable for one thing.... downgrades. This storm looks like nothing more than a typical winter gale.

pad199207

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Winter 2018/2019 will be notable for one thing.... downgrades. This storm looks like nothing more than a typical winter gale.

Yeah I doubt it will even be named at this point

JanuarySnowstor

Well it's not much use for my location but is certainly an orange alert for the Northwest. It will definitely be named imo

pad199207

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well it's not much use for my location but is certainly an orange alert for the Northwest. It will definitely be named imo

Yes if models give a few more upgrades, naming would be probable.

Storm 10

Orange marine warning has just gone back to Yellow

Oscar Bravo

Storm 10 wrote: »

Orange marine warning has just gone back to Yellow

that was for tonight along the south coast.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE showing stronger winds on this run and a larger area with those stronger winds, still mostly offshore but edging closer on to land . ARPEGE has the strongest winds much further N than what Met Eireann are showing on their site. They have the strongest winds From Galway down around the SW to W Cork. Have a feeling the ARPEGE will bring those strong winds further S in the next run or so.

Don't think the ICON has a handle on this at all.

So was thinking High end Yellow close to Orange warning level from Kerry up along to Donegal but mostly along the coasts , probably yellow all other counties. Galway/ Mayo / Donegal possibly will be showing more like Orange level by tomorrow , latest WRF also would also suggest showing increased wind speeds that may go up in the coming runs also.

Meteorite58

HIRLAM 18Z Average wind speeds packing a punch into the W . Gusting 130+ along the coasts I would imagine.

Meteorite58

ECMWF Average wind speeds and rainfall accumulation by Fri evening.

ninebeanrows

Looking at the AM runs i suspect Erik will be christened in the next few hours

Mount Vesuvius

This lad won't be happy. Lol.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1093226731043987456?s=19

ninebeanrows

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

This lad won't be happy. Lol.

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1093226731043987456?s=19

Don't think the poor pettle has the responsibility of protecting its citizens like a national met office does!

Doesn't look the end of the world but certainly high mean speeds and gusts well into the Orange category for some Atlantic coastal counties.

Gaoth Laidir

For me it shouldn't be named either. It's a typical winter storm depression that does not look like causing any real hazard, apart from some localised coastal flooding.

I notice EcoEye on RTE the other night were talking about climate change and of course showed plenty of clips of the snow last year as they were talking about the "undeniable" effects already in place. The snow last year had nothing to do with agw, so using it this way is misleading but of course typical of the hype now. Tomorrow's system is a run-of-the-mill winter low. If we DIDN'T get them it would be strange, but if it is named then it will be used as a stat on the next misleading program.

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

For me it shouldn't be named either. It's a typical winter storm depression that does not look like causing any real hazard, apart from some localised coastal flooding.

I notice EcoEye on RTE the other night were talking about climate change and of course showed plenty of clips of the snow last year as they were talking about the "undeniable" effects already in place. The snow last year had nothing to do with agw, so using it this way is misleading but of course typical of the hype now. Tomorrow's system is a run-of-the-mill winter low. If we DIDN'T get them it would be strange, but if it is named then it will be used as a stat on the next misleading program.

But Meteorologists aren't concerned about stats; they are concerned about whether weather conditions will impede/damage/threaten individuals live and/or property if they carry out their normal daily functions.

You are totally correct about this being a typical winter low but typical winter low's cause damage to infrastructure and interrupt people's lives so they need to be warned. Perhaps there is merit in revisiting the process of naming storms but if a low pressure system like this is not named then IMO, the whole system has broken down.

If the gradient crossing Ireland was to cross southern England - i have no doubt that this system would have been named by the UK Met!

Marengo

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Looking at the AM runs i suspect Erik will be christened in the next few hours

Storm 'Eric' pack a punch for the west coast?

ninebeanrows

Extreme Forecast Index for both mean and gust speeds are quite bullish across the island.

Gaoth Laidir

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If the gradient crossing Ireland was to cross southern England - i have no doubt that this system would have been named by the UK Met!

Purely because that area is less accustomed to such winds. I think the likes of the west and northwest of Ireland and the Hebrides do wind pretty well.