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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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coolshannagh28

6ix wrote: »

Err... I'm not sure if you actually read that link but the Citigroup CEO is saying exactly what AlmightyCushion said - that widespread talk/fears about a recession can in itself cause a recession.

It's the opposite of what you originally posted, which was:

Its pretty indefinable , but a tipping point does come when or most many people feel that their finances are becoming precarious and they cut back on spending with catastrophic results .

The_Conductor

Sheeps wrote: »

The only place you're going to see house price increases like that are in the commuter belt and other cities across Ireland.

Commuter belt already falling- gently mind, nothing startling.
Dublin South/West and North Kildare- esp. new developments- are all symptomatic, however, second hand prices showing similar trends.

6ix

Pussyhands wrote: »

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH

You're more of an expert than Citi CEO?

Err... I'm not sure if you actually read that link but the Citigroup CEO is saying exactly what AlmightyCushion said - that widespread talk/fears about a recession can in itself cause a recession.

It's the opposite of what you originally posted, which was:

Pussyhands wrote:

If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

[Deleted User]

Bbborris wrote: »

I know it's a few days old, but I'm still trying to understand how this was the best quote they got for these apartments! 600k a piece, and the council owns the land they were to be built on?

Can anyone enlighten me here?

rte.ie/news/dublin/2019/0205/1027635-dublin-rapid-build/

I have no idea.

"city centre location and restrictions of space added to the cost."

This site is in Temple Bar.

Why is it being used for social housing in the commercial heart of the city? I do not understand.

Bbborris

I know it's a few days old, but I'm still trying to understand how this was the best quote they got for these apartments! 600k a piece, and the council owns the land they were to be built on?

Can anyone enlighten me here?

rte.ie/news/dublin/2019/0205/1027635-dublin-rapid-build/

Pussyhands

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It's actually the opposite. If people think a recession is going to happen, it can lead to them cutting costs and non essentially spending to help protect them from the recession. Same with companies. If they think a recession is coming, they might hold off on recruitment and investment. All this can actually lead to a real drop in economic activity based entirely on a fear of a recession.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH

You're more of an expert than Citi CEO?

Pussyhands

Graham wrote: »

Yes because that's exactly how economies work. It's like some sort of reverse popularity contest. I understand there's a 1550 number and 5 digit SMS shortcode where you can register your preference for the next recession.

:rolleyes:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/citi-ceo-let%E2%80%99s-not-talk-ourselves-into-a-recession/ar-BBSfjFH

Citi CEO: Let’s Not Talk Ourselves into a Recession

B-b-but I thought economies don't work like that :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Roberto_gas

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Was waiting...will wait....keep accumulating cash meanwhile..

Jaysus..so many comments on a simple post..what i meant was dont have cash to buy..shows how much everyone is polarised for rise vs drops...

Bluefoam

Sheeps wrote: »

House prices have already started to collapse in certain markets in Dublin

That's a big statement, can you please point us to the statistics you are referencing... I'm aware that some asking prices have reduced, some sales have even gone for less than the vendor was hoping for... But collapse suggests a massive fall in property prices, not just a reduction. Heresay and personal opinion are great, but let's try to deal in facts or at least truth.

Sheeps

Kidkinobe wrote: »

House prices will rise by 5/6 % over the next 12 months. People are getting caught up in the "IF" scenario "what IF Brexit etc" and ignoring what is actually supporting the housing market and what will continue to support it.

Across which segment of the market? House prices have already started to collapse in certain markets in Dublin, and with lending rules in place and wages yet to increase, there's no way the bottom of the market can go any higher in Dublin. The only place you're going to see house price increases like that are in the commuter belt and other cities across Ireland.

Once it starts to go, it'll go quickly as people try and cash in and upgrade. That's the nature of a speculative market. Can't wait to pick up my first home in the firesale that ensues.

Kidkinobe

ELM327 wrote: »

The notion that there will be any form of crash in the next 12-18 months is hogwash.
The "new car" sales figures are down due to imports of 6-18 month old cars from the UK. Even on a no deal brexit there is no reason to suggest FDI in Ireland will contract. The rental market is going to get worse before it gets better, there simply are no properties to rent in Dublin at reasonable rates.

House prices will rise by 5/6 % over the next 12 months. People are getting caught up in the "IF" scenario "what IF Brexit etc" and ignoring what is actually supporting the housing market and what will continue to support it.

ELM327

The notion that there will be any form of crash in the next 12-18 months is hogwash.
The "new car" sales figures are down due to imports of 6-18 month old cars from the UK. Even on a no deal brexit there is no reason to suggest FDI in Ireland will contract. The rental market is going to get worse before it gets better, there simply are no properties to rent in Dublin at reasonable rates.

reg114

The market hates uncertainty. Brexit is creating huge uncertainty which is already feeding into a 16% drop in commercial van and car sales for January. Car sales much like house sales are a barometer of sentiment. I think people are grossly underestimating the implications of a no deal brexit. Potentially the economy could contract by 4 % this year alone, if that happens you'll see an exodus of foreign workers and resultant implications for the rental market in the form of an increase in supply due to vacated properties and a drop in rental prices. A no deal brexit will have massive implications for the residential housing market regardless of stricter lending regulations and access to finances. If the economy contracts you will absolutely see a drop in house prices. Irish economic output could potentially plummet, throw in an increase in inflation due to goods from the UK costing more and you have a perfect storm and recession looming. I have zero faith in the EU, UK or Ireland and their individual or collective abilities to resolve this shambles without some collateral damage. I think you'd be taking a massive risk if you think property prices are not vulnerable to collapse given one of the greatest threats to the irish economy in recent times.

coolshannagh28

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I’ve seen the theory bandied about that builders/developers are on some kind of go-slow so as to artificially restrict the supply of houses and thereby maintain their high prices.

Does this really stand up to scrutiny though? Yes, building is certainly throttled right now in comparison to boom-time Ireland and yes this benefits the construction industry but I think it may be a bit of a leap to say that this is some kind of conspiracy. Here are a few things to consider:
The construction industry was decimated more than any other during the recession. There was a mass emigration of a lot of skilled tradesman while at the same time apprenticeships completely dried up. Any tradesmen I know are in high demand right now and working flat out. There is a huge shortage of skilled workers in this area

Financing for developers disappeared. After the crash and the demise of Anglo it became extremely difficult to finance developments. This is still a massive issue

NIMBYism and An Taisce are responsible for obstructing and delaying a lot of developments with objections.

Any one developer/builder is going to act in their own best interests. They’re not going to limit their own profitability for the greater good of the industry. That is not how humans work – especially in business. They’re going to build as much as they can with the resources that they have.

If anyone is restricting supply it is banks and vulture funds especially .

AlmightyCushion

Pussyhands wrote: »

This is music to my ears.

The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

It's actually the opposite. If people think a recession is going to happen, it can lead to them cutting costs and non essentially spending to help protect them from the recession. Same with companies. If they think a recession is coming, they might hold off on recruitment and investment. All this can actually lead to a real drop in economic activity based entirely on a fear of a recession.

Cuddlesworth

Makes no sense, the biggest financial gain with the least amount of risk is to build as quickly as possible. Having a large estate half build in the middle of a sharp decline in pricing is a huge loss for any developers.

Land banking on the other hand would appear to be a good long term investment for people with money.

Brussels Sprout

I’ve seen the theory bandied about that builders/developers are on some kind of go-slow so as to artificially restrict the supply of houses and thereby maintain their high prices.

Does this really stand up to scrutiny though? Yes, building is certainly throttled right now in comparison to boom-time Ireland and yes this benefits the construction industry but I think it may be a bit of a leap to say that this is some kind of conspiracy. Here are a few things to consider:

The construction industry was decimated more than any other during the recession. There was a mass emigration of a lot of skilled tradesman while at the same time apprenticeships completely dried up. Any tradesmen I know are in high demand right now and working flat out. There is a huge shortage of skilled workers in this area
Financing for developers disappeared. After the crash and the demise of Anglo it became extremely difficult to finance developments. This is still a massive issue
NIMBYism and An Taisce are responsible for obstructing and delaying a lot of developments with objections.
Any one developer/builder is going to act in their own best interests. They’re not going to limit their own profitability for the greater good of the industry. That is not how humans work – especially in business. They’re going to build as much as they can with the resources that they have.

Graham

Pussyhands wrote: »

This is music to my ears.

The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

Yes because that's exactly how economies work. It's like some sort of reverse popularity contest. I understand there's a 1550 number and 5 digit SMS shortcode where you can register your preference for the next recession.

:rolleyes:

Pussyhands

BBFAN wrote: »

People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.

This is music to my ears.

The more people claim there won't be a crash, the more likely it is.

If everyone is saying there will be a recession, chances are there won't be one.

rosmoke

No drop, crash all the way. Too much debt accumulated in most economies. Roller Coaster economy.

AlmightyCushion

BBFAN wrote: »

People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.

Are people waiting for a huge crash? I think most have said they're waiting for a drop, that doesn't necessarily mean a crash as bad as the one we had between 2008 and 2012.

Also, a 2 percentage point increase in unemployment is not insignificant. Apart from the direct effect to the unemployed it puts downward pressure on wages and increase job uncertainty for the employed. When that happens people could be less likely or unable to purchase. Brexit might not be a catastrophe to the Irish economy but it doesn't have to be to cause a drop in house prices.

BBFAN

Villa05 wrote: »

Not waiting for a huge crash, but a country dependent on open economies should have policies that promote sustainable house price growth so that the effects of a crash are minimised.

Ireland pursues polices that have the opposite effect and maximises the damage caused by a crash

Credit has been kept in check by Europe however government policy has tried on numerous occasions to find ways around these controls

Credit has been kept in check but house price have climbed unsustainbly due to supply being strangled

Banks still have over 50k of mortgages in arrears, the vast majority are long term arrears.

As I say I'm not waiting for a crash but I'm planning for one as we have not learned from the experience of the last one.
We had a buffer to help cushion the last crash We have massive debt going into the next one. It's not going to be pretty

I think you're wrong.

Villa05

BBFAN wrote:

People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

Not waiting for a huge crash, but a country dependent on open economies should have policies that promote sustainable house price growth so that the effects of a crash are minimised.

Ireland pursues polices that have the opposite effect and maximises the damage caused by a crash

Credit has been kept in check by Europe however government policy has tried on numerous occasions to find ways around these controls

Credit has been kept in check but house price have climbed unsustainbly due to supply being strangled

Banks still have over 50k of mortgages in arrears, the vast majority are long term arrears.

As I say I'm not waiting for a crash but I'm planning for one as we have not learned from the experience of the last one.
We had a buffer to help cushion the last crash We have massive debt going into the next one. It's not going to be pretty

BBFAN

People waiting for a huge crash are going to be bitterly disappointed. The conditions are not the same as the last time. Credit hasn't been given out willy nilly.

And the latest reports suggest that even in the case of a hard Brexit unemployment will rise by 2%. That's not going to be a huge hit. We're currently at almost full employment.

Bob24

Villa05 wrote: »

You assume house price drops will be the same across all house types.

Demographics would suggest that there would be considerably more demand for entry level homes such as starter homes and apartments. Consequently it would be safe to assume that larger homes would experience larger percentage price drops than entry level homes

Could well be the case (although hard to be sure). But then it means it would be even better for someone who has an entry level one and wants to upgrade.

L1011

Pussyhands wrote: »

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Man uses same username on two of the most popular websites in Ireland and it's stalking

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I would recommend that you read the Terms of Service, specifically the line specifying that you cannot

"identify or speculate as to the identity of any anonymous or pseudonymous user"

Before posting on this thread, or elsewhere, again.

https://www.boards.ie/content/terms

Villa05

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote:

If you buy a house for 200k with 10 or even 20% down and there's a 30% drop in prices whilst you still owe over 70%, you won't be able to sell up to trade up.

You assume house price drops will be the same across all house types.

Demographics would suggest that there would be considerably more demand for entry level homes such as starter homes and apartments. Consequently it would be safe to assume that larger homes would experience larger percentage price drops than entry level homes

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob24 wrote: »

We were discussing the risk of the person wanting to upgrade falling into negative equity though, which as I mentioned is not a material risk for all homeowners.

What you are referring to is different, and yes I agree a market crash would reduce offer a lot due to many people being unable to sell because they are in negative equity. But at the same reduced offer doesn’t mean no offer at all and since demand would also reduce a lot, things would balance out. For exemple during the worst times of the previous crash it was possible to acquire any type of property. It indeed took longer to find one you like due to restricted offer, but at the same time because of reduced demand once you had found one there was a lot less competition to get it and pretty much no bidding wars.

I agree with some of your points but it was nearly impossible to get a mortgage in the downturn.

I work in the industry so I have seen a lot of these situations first hand, through the ups and downs.

Bob24

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

But it's a fair assumption. If the arse falls out of the market, then the houses which will be most affected are those which they would want to be trading up to, when in fact these are the ones more likely to be unable to sell due to negative equity.

We were discussing the risk of the person wanting to upgrade falling into negative equity though, which as I mentioned is not a material risk for all homeowners.

What you are referring to is different, and yes I agree a market crash would reduce offer a lot due to many people being unable to sell because they are in negative equity. But at the same reduced offer doesn’t mean no offer at all and since demand would also reduce a lot, things would balance out. For exemple during the worst times of the previous crash it was possible to acquire any type of property. It indeed took longer to find one you like due to restricted offer, but at the same time because of reduced demand once you had found one there was a lot less competition to get it and pretty much no bidding wars.

Pussyhands

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Wow that's creepy levels of stalking.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Man uses same username on two of the most popular websites in Ireland and it's stalking

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: