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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Bbborris

Looking to buy in West Dublin. Keeping an eye on the market, prices still rising, especially new builds. Thought there was a stagnation?

gk5000

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Waiting for what precisely? The 50% drop in prices was a complete anomaly and will not happen again. Sitting on the sidelines and wishing for a massive crash is a pretty dick move to be honest. Your essentially hoping for financial ruin of the country and thousands of households so you personally can profit.

You have different ideas of what is fair pricing and fair value of houses than the poster. It's ok to disagree but unfair to suggest they are a dick etc..

dermob

gk5000 wrote: »

You have different ideas of what is fair pricing and fair value of houses than the poster. It's ok to disagree but unfair to suggest they are a dick etc..

A dick move, didn’t take it up as suggesting they were a dick. Wishing the ass to fall out out the market and concurrently the economy is a bit selfish.

gk5000

dermob wrote: »

A dick move, didn’t take it up as suggesting they were a dick. Wishing the ass to fall out out the market and concurrently the economy is a bit selfish.

Asset prices can fall without affecting the whole economy. Anyway neither market or economy care about individual wishes and I don't thing there is anything wrong with expressing ones preferences whatever they are

Pussyhands

If the arse fell out of property tomorrow I'd be delighted. Builders are pocketing plenty and they're purposely delaying builds to make the good times last for them while also at the same time keeping prices high.

Current prices are due to a shortage of housing, not because of salaries etc.

The only way prices keep going up is if there is a continued shortage.

The question I'd ask then is, is there ever going to be a time where there is not a shortage? In which case prices would drop. eventually, either through a recession or housing supply, there will not be a massive shortage like there is now.

Bob24

gk5000 wrote: »

Asset prices can fall without affecting the whole economy.

Here we are talking Brexit-induced property crash. How could Brexit crash the Irish property market besides crashing the Irish economy as a whole?

myshirt

Bbborris wrote: »

Looking to buy in West Dublin. Keeping an eye on the market, prices still rising, especially new builds. Thought there was a stagnation?

Not in West Dublin.

Anything that is less than 370k will keep growing until it gets there, and a lot of the 3 beds are less than this at the moment. There is still more return, they'll keep growing until they hit the 370 mark roughly.

Eric Cartman

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Waiting for what precisely? The 50% drop in prices was a complete anomaly and will not happen again. Sitting on the sidelines and wishing for a massive crash is a pretty dick move to be honest. Your essentially hoping for financial ruin of the country and thousands of households so you personally can profit.

ahh yeah because the people hoping the price goes up to sell their way out of a bad investment at the demise of young people trying to buy their first house are so much less selfish.

Pussyhands

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Waiting for what precisely? The 50% drop in prices was a complete anomaly and will not happen again. Sitting on the sidelines and wishing for a massive crash is a pretty dick move to be honest. Your essentially hoping for financial ruin of the country and thousands of households so you personally can profit.

You were on another website gleefully announcing how your house is going up in value because of a jobs announcement local to you.

There's young people not able to afford mortgages and people forced to live with their parents and you're delighted the situation gets worse for them? How's that for a dick move?

<SNIP>
MOD

Don't do that please.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Naturally those who own will not want property prices to drop.

And the opposite for those who can't afford to buy now.

It's not rocket science. But you could argue both are dick moves.

Mike3549

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Naturally those who own will not want property prices to drop.

And the opposite for those who can't afford to buy now.

It's not rocket science. But you could argue both are dick moves.

I own a property and plan to trade up in 5 years time. And i want prices to go down. If prices keep rising that means the price difference is also rising and theres a chance i wont be able to afford to trade up. Unless you plan to trade down or emigrate and cash in, rising market is not good for homeowners. And if you own and dont plan to sell, it shouldnt make a difference if prices are rising or not.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Mike3549 wrote: »

I own a property and plan to trade up in 5 years time. And i want prices to go down. If prices keep rising that means the price difference is also rising and theres a chance i wont be able to afford to trade up. Unless you plan to trade down or emigrate and cash in, rising market is not good for homeowners. And if you own and dont plan to sell, it shouldnt make a difference if prices are rising or not.

If you own a property and prices go down and you end up in negative equity you won't be allowed to sell your home
All depends on individuals circumstances I suppose.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Pussyhands wrote: »

You were on another website gleefully announcing how your house is going up in value because of a jobs announcement local to you.

There's young people not able to afford mortgages and people forced to live with their parents and you're delighted the situation gets worse for them? How's that for a dick move?

<SNIP>
MOD

Don't do that please.

Wow that's creepy levels of stalking.

Villa05

Peter Muscular Quirk wrote:

Sitting on the sidelines and wishing for a massive crash is a pretty dick move to be honest. Your essentially hoping for financial ruin of the country and thousands of households so you personally can profit.

The irony, when it is high house prices that crashed the economy last time and will play a significant part in doing it again next tome

Brussels Sprout

There are a few of these types of threads on this forum and the same users pop up on both sides. It’s a bit like they’re supporting football teams whereby they have a set position and all facts have to be twisted to support that world view.

I find that to get a balanced view It’s best to take note of these users and view their opinions through the prism of their ingrained positions.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Mike3549 wrote: »

I own a property and plan to trade up in 5 years time. And i want prices to go down. If prices keep rising that means the price difference is also rising and theres a chance i wont be able to afford to trade up. Unless you plan to trade down or emigrate and cash in, rising market is not good for homeowners. And if you own and dont plan to sell, it shouldnt make a difference if prices are rising or not.

How does this work? Negative equity?

Bluefoam

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Negative equity?

Not everyone is in negative equity...

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Bluefoam wrote: »

Not everyone is in negative equity...

Well the poster said he is hoping house prices fall so he can trade up for cheaper...but he won't be able to move if he falls into significant negative equity?

Graham

Pheonix10 wrote: »

How does this work? Negative equity?

If you're in a €200k house and you'd like to buy a €400k house;

a 10% rise in prices means you'll get €20k more for the existing house but the new house will cost €40k more.

cruizer101

Pheonix10 wrote: »

How does this work? Negative equity?

Lets say they are in a house worth 300k and want to buy one worth 400k.
Difference is 100k.
Both drop by 10% so now 270k and 360k, difference is 90k.
If you had the money in savings it could work well for you.
But this is a very simple example and there is a lot more to it than that.
Different houses change different %, cost of credit at the time, affordability at the time, etc.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Graham wrote: »

If you're in a €200k house and you'd like to buy a €400k house;

a 10% rise in prices means you'll get €20k more for the existing house but the new house will cost €40k more.

If you buy a house for 200k with 10 or even 20% down and there's a 30% drop in prices whilst you still owe over 70%, you won't be able to sell up to trade up.

Bluefoam

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Well the poster said he is hoping house prices fall so he can trade up for cheaper...but he won't be able to move if he falls into significant negative equity?

He didn't say anything about falling into significant negative equity... nor the bottom falling out of the market. He just mentioned a price drop would suit him. Maybe he has significant euity and would remain in equity even if there was a fall in prices... Stop reading comments in a negative mindset...

[Deleted User]

Was speaking with the estate agent who manages my rental house. He said asking prices have started to come down, which is what I had noticed myself, also he think they will fall a small bit more this year, but doesn't seem to feel it will be a huge drop nor will it be for long.
He thinks the new build incentives are slowing the second hand market.
This is 2nd hand properties in & around Dublin 7 we were speaking about.
A lot of properties in his books since last summer.

Bob24

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Well the poster said he is hoping house prices fall so he can trade up for cheaper...but he won't be able to move if he falls into significant negative equity?

Why assuming the poster will fall into negative equity though. If they see price drops as an opportunity to upgrade they probably have no mortgage or singificant equity in their mortgage (I think anyone with a LTV ratio below 50% can feel almost completely safe about negative equity, and even 70% is rather comfortable).

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob24 wrote: »

Why assuming the poster will fall into negative equity though. If they see price drops as an opportunity to upgrade they probably have no mortgage or singificant equity in their mortgage (I think anyone with a LTV ratio below 50% can feel almost completely safe about negative equity, and even 70% is rather comfortable).

But it's a fair assumption. If the arse falls out of the market, then the houses which will be most affected are those which they would want to be trading up to, when in fact these are the ones more likely to be unable to sell due to negative equity.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Bob24 wrote: »

Why assuming the poster will fall into negative equity though. If they see price drops as an opportunity to upgrade they probably have no mortgage or singificant equity in their mortgage (I think anyone with a LTV ratio below 50% can feel almost completely safe about negative equity, and even 70% is rather comfortable).

That's a fair point!

Pussyhands

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Wow that's creepy levels of stalking.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Man uses same username on two of the most popular websites in Ireland and it's stalking

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Bob24

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

But it's a fair assumption. If the arse falls out of the market, then the houses which will be most affected are those which they would want to be trading up to, when in fact these are the ones more likely to be unable to sell due to negative equity.

We were discussing the risk of the person wanting to upgrade falling into negative equity though, which as I mentioned is not a material risk for all homeowners.

What you are referring to is different, and yes I agree a market crash would reduce offer a lot due to many people being unable to sell because they are in negative equity. But at the same reduced offer doesn’t mean no offer at all and since demand would also reduce a lot, things would balance out. For exemple during the worst times of the previous crash it was possible to acquire any type of property. It indeed took longer to find one you like due to restricted offer, but at the same time because of reduced demand once you had found one there was a lot less competition to get it and pretty much no bidding wars.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob24 wrote: »

We were discussing the risk of the person wanting to upgrade falling into negative equity though, which as I mentioned is not a material risk for all homeowners.

What you are referring to is different, and yes I agree a market crash would reduce offer a lot due to many people being unable to sell because they are in negative equity. But at the same reduced offer doesn’t mean no offer at all and since demand would also reduce a lot, things would balance out. For exemple during the worst times of the previous crash it was possible to acquire any type of property. It indeed took longer to find one you like due to restricted offer, but at the same time because of reduced demand once you had found one there was a lot less competition to get it and pretty much no bidding wars.

I agree with some of your points but it was nearly impossible to get a mortgage in the downturn.

I work in the industry so I have seen a lot of these situations first hand, through the ups and downs.

Villa05

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote:

If you buy a house for 200k with 10 or even 20% down and there's a 30% drop in prices whilst you still owe over 70%, you won't be able to sell up to trade up.

You assume house price drops will be the same across all house types.

Demographics would suggest that there would be considerably more demand for entry level homes such as starter homes and apartments. Consequently it would be safe to assume that larger homes would experience larger percentage price drops than entry level homes