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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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tuxy

Sand wrote: »

Perhaps, but it will/should never arise in practise. Its an insurance policy no one wants to trigger. To the extent it affects the UK outside of Northern Ireland, it is at the request of the British themselves.

When it was first included it was something that was just an insurance policy and seemed unlikely to be triggered. But after watching the HOC the last few months it would seem it is something that will be triggered. It's going to take much longer than 2 years for them to come up with something that prevents the backstop coming in to place.
If the UK had confidence in the HOC working as a functioning government then the backstop would not be a worry. Unfortunately they know that they may have to continue deadlock in an attempt to play stupid games to keep unstable political parties together and the next general election is not until 2022.
I believe both the Tories and Labour may have splintered by now if there was not a first past the post voting system.

cml387

Here's a possibility, it was mooted by an expert on EU affairs on Today this morning, and it comes from the EU's method of dealing with intractable problems.

After March 29th, the EU implements on the WA on a provisional basis.

From that point on, the EU and Britain start negotiations on the Future Arrangements. that gives two years to agee the shape of that agreement.

By that time, it's hoped that with calm heads a solution can be found.

otnomart

Am just watching The One Show with Patrick Kielty and they are giving the low down on how to get an Irish Passport !

trellheim

The key difference as well is that they dont NEED to resort to violence (though there always will be a cohort who will at the drop of a hat).

Poor Jo Cox was shot and stabbed to death during the campaign for Remain 2 and 1/2 years ago . Her killer shouted "Put Britain First" during the attack.

FrancieBrady

cml387 wrote: »

Here's a possibility, it was mooted by an expert on EU affairs on Today this morning, and it comes from the EU's method of dealing with intractable problems.

After March 29th, the EU implements on the WA on a provisional basis.

From that point on, the EU and Britain start negotiations on the Future Arrangements. that gives two years to agee the shape of that agreement.

By that time, it's hoped that with calm heads a solution can be found.

The UK will be a 3rd country and in quite a weaker position though, surely. The backdrop of anger and resentment in the UK will be quite something to behold I would imagine.
They will have to accede to a border poll too as it will be clear that the numbers will be there.

Capt'n Midnight

greenpilot wrote: »

Here is a question for you folks.

I live in Co.Roscommon and the whole area is full of retired UK citizens who bought cheap houses and are living off their pensions while living permanently here in Ireland.
Will they be entitled to receive their benefits while remaining here in Ireland? A few of the usual "We do things better in the UK" types are keen to tell me that they will be able to continue to live here as normal after Brexit.

What do you think?

Anyone on £ pension will probably have noticed the drop in Sterling by now. And there may be a further drop if there's a Hard Brexit.

There won't be a 25% exit tax on UK pension transfers until the end of 2020.

So if you are in the UK and planning to retire to the EU it might be worth considering early retirement to lock in the current sterling rate and tax treaties.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

Poor Jo Cox was shot and stabbed to death during the campaign for Remain 2 and 1/2 years ago . Her killer shouted "Put Britain First" during the attack.

He didn't say "put" at the start. It was 'Britain first' which is one of those painfully small but noisy right wing of the right wing 'political' parties. Been pretty much de-platformed out of existence.

Capt'n Midnight

otnomart wrote: »

Am just watching The One Show with Patrick Kielty and they are giving the low down on how to get an Irish Passport !

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47040831

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The backstop is not a tiny clause. It's a huge part of the document

There are a large number of pages on Northern Ireland and its unique position between GB and the ROI and how trade and citizens' rights etc will be affected but the backstop itself barely gets a mention.

tuxy

Strazdas wrote: »

There are a large number of pages on Northern Ireland and its unique position between GB and the ROI and how trade and citizens' rights etc will be affected but the backstop itself barely gets a mention.

How did brexit secretary at the time Dominic Raab manage to avoid reading the GFA? The GFA isn't even a particularly long document.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This from the headline article in today's Telegraph. An informative insight into the mindset of Brexiteers.

"Britain’s best chance of getting revenge on Brussels for its Brexit bullying is to remain in the European Union. For the EU’s most fanatical and full-throated theologians, few outcomes could be more horrific than an intransigent, hostile Britain trapped in a project that it plots to undermine from the inside."

Lovely.

The UK has helped unite the EU27, on at least one major issue at least.

From Yes Minister "The writing on the wall" (1980) about the then EEC , shows just how incompetent the current UK govt are. Brexit doesn't have any silver lining. A low reward policy should have multiple objectives so that there is some benefit even if the main one fails.

Sir Humphrey: Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish, with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now, when it's worked so well?

Hacker: That's all ancient history, surely?

Sir Humphrey: Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thingup, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn't work. Now that we're inside we can make a complete pig's breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch... The Foreign Office is terribly pleased; it's just like old times.

Hacker: But surely we're all committed to the European ideal?

Sir Humphrey: [chuckles] Really, minister.

Hacker: If not, why are we pushing for an increase in the membership?

Sir Humphrey: Well, for the same reason. It's just like the United Nations, in fact; the more members it has, the more arguments it can stir up, the more futile and impotent it becomes.

Hacker: What appalling cynicism.

Sir Humphrey: Yes... We call it diplomacy, minister.

Capt'n Midnight

fash wrote: »

She believes only in staying in power and holding the Tories together. That’s all she will stand up for.

And fighting the human rights courts.

And being on the winning side.
Even if it means abandoning the only deal on offer to get fickle support.

Immigration ?
nah, non-EU immigration is on the up and up

cml387

I had that yes Minister exactly in mind when I read that Telegraph piece

Christy42

cml387 wrote: »

Here's a possibility, it was mooted by an expert on EU affairs on Today this morning, and it comes from the EU's method of dealing with intractable problems.

After March 29th, the EU implements on the WA on a provisional basis.

From that point on, the EU and Britain start negotiations on the Future Arrangements. that gives two years to agee the shape of that agreement.

By that time, it's hoped that with calm heads a solution can be found.

The EU can't force the UK to follow the terms of the WA. The WA is a provisional document by nature and is meant to be superseded by trade agreements in the future so the suggestion is the same as the WA (which the UK has already ruled out).

Igotadose

Hrm... England might get a bit stinky starting 30 March:

"Government officials are preparing to deal with “putrefying stockpiles” of rubbish in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to documents leaked to the Guardian.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal on 29 March, export licences for millions of tonnes of waste will become invalid overnight. Environment Agency (EA) officials said leaking stockpiles could cause pollution."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/01/revealed-plan-to-deal-with-putrefying-stockpiles-of-rubbish-after-no-deal-brexit

10000maniacs

FrancieBrady wrote: »

cml387 wrote: »

Here's a possibility, it was mooted by an expert on EU affairs on Today this morning, and it comes from the EU's method of dealing with intractable problems.

After March 29th, the EU implements on the WA on a provisional basis.

From that point on, the EU and Britain start negotiations on the Future Arrangements. that gives two years to agee the shape of that agreement.

By that time, it's hoped that with calm heads a solution can be found.

The UK will be a 3rd country and in quite a weaker position though, surely. The backdrop of anger and resentment in the UK will be quite something to behold I would imagine.
They will have to accede to a border poll too as it will be clear that the numbers will be there.

I wouldn't jump in immediately with a border poll. It's way too early. Leave it about 5 years. Wait for the EU subsidies to become a distant memory and the realities to really kick in. Only then will there be a chance of it being passed.

Infini

10000maniacs wrote: »

I wouldn't jump in immediately with a border poll. It's way too early. Leave it about 5 years. Wait for the EU subsidies to become a distant memory and the realities to really kick in. Only then will there be a chance of it being passed.

While 5 years would be ideal the whole problem with Brexit is that it's going to cause a clusterfuk of problems all at once and truthfully while we can predict all we want we wont truly know the full effect of this collosal mistake of a vanity project till it actually happens in practise. A border poll could easily happen within 18 months it all ultimately depend on how bad the responce on the ground is or if any common sense is left in Westminster.

Scoondal

If there is a "no deal" Brexit, can the Good Friday agreement still be fully implemented ? Have the Irish and UK governments discussed this with 57 days remaining ?
I don't know what the Good Friday agreement says but I know it was built on the assumption of Northern Ireland being part of EU.

Crock Rock

Any truth to this?

touts wrote: »

I think there is a very real possibility that both the EU and UK dig their heels in and come April 1st the EU say to Ireland put up a hard border or we will shut you out of the common market until you do. European solidarity will suddenly twist against us it the UK are gone and we then find ourselves the ones out of step with the rest of the EU.

The problem is we basically can't seal off the border. It's too big and our customs/Gardai/army are too few. There is barely 2 months left and it would take closer to 2 years than 2 months to put the people and infrastructure in place. But the EU won't care because they will be aware that they don't want to set a precedent for its other borders in the east. It'll be put up the border or we hit you with sanctions and tariffs for not complying with EU regulations.

Then for a period Irish companies could find tariffs on their goods going into both the UK and EU. We'll basically be caught in a crossfire between the EU and UK. Eventually one of them will give in and a deal will be struck BUT that could take several weeks or months and by that time many small to medium Irish businesses will be bankrupt. The UK don't give a damn about us and the EU will be focused on maintaining the big picture and we're the small picture.

Basically we're going to get screwed and no one will care because we're not big enough to matter.

tuxy

Scoondal wrote: »

I don't know what the Good Friday agreement says but I know it was built on the assumption of Northern Ireland being part of EU.

The GFA says that both the UK and Ireland must work together to align policies on both sides of the border.

I don't see how the UK can implement a hard brexit without breaking this agreement.

Leroy42

Whether a deal or not I can't see how in 6 weeks the UK will be ready to leave on 29th.

So TM is going to be forced to request an extension. So is going to offer something to get it.

It seems since the vote this week that the UK think they have all the cards but nothing really has changed, except two more weeks will have passed by the time they vote again.

Scoondal

Mrs May says UK will leave EU on 29 March. So, in a "no deal" exit, this will break the Good Friday agreement. Can Ireland go to a UN court or something to force UK to abide by the agreement ?
I suppose any country can break international peace agreements. Adolf Hitler broke many such agreements.

J Mysterio

Paddy Power are running with some pretty provocative Brexit themed ads ahead of the Ireland England rugby game tomorrow.

https:/www.joe.ie/amp/sport/paddy-power-brexit-england-billboards-657007

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

Whether a deal or not I can't see how in 6 weeks the UK will be ready to leave on 29th.

So TM is going to be forced to request an extension. So is going to offer something to get it.

It seems since the vote this week that the UK think they have all the cards but nothing really has changed, except two more weeks will have passed by the time they vote again.

May and Co might think they know what they`re doing,but in reality they`re flying by the seat of their pants!

Nody

Crock Rock wrote: »

Any truth to this?

What part of it? Will EU demand border controls? Of course; it's a third party border. This is with 99% chance already planned for over at least a year if not two+ years ago by the government. Implementation will be mobile stops as a starting point while (if) permanent once are built on the major roads focusing on commercial traffic.

Will EU shut out Ireland if they fail to comply? Well by definition if Ireland fails to complete it's duties the goods coming from Ireland can't be trusted and hence additional controls would be required; which is once again why I'm very certain Ireland will have a sufficient hard border. However to go the full route of tariffs etc. would take much longer time if at all possible (we'd be talking years as it would go through the EU court etc. for what's possible to do).

Personally my bet is on UK signing the agreement on the table long before anything is permanently set up at the border. Remember most businesses inc. medicine etc. are stockpiled for weeks (if possible!); once those start running low without a deal in sight (and remember this is UK that is suppose to negotiate a full blown FTA with other countries in these weeks what normally takes years to decades!) they will sign the agreement to buy time. Why? Because DUP and NI are worth a heck of a lot less to them compared to the chaos on the mainland once medicine runs out etc. so a Tory/Labour combination will get it through the house.

Scoondal wrote: »

Mrs May says UK will leave EU on 29 March. So, in a "no deal" exit, this will break the Good Friday agreement. Can Ireland go to a UN court or something to force UK to abide by the agreement ?
I suppose any country can break international peace agreements. Adolf Hitler broke many such agreements.

Having skimmed through the deal a few times I can't recall jurisdiction is listed anywhere. If UK wanted to argue they did not break it they could possible use a neutral court such as The Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce or similar (used by USA and USSR for example during the cold war) but in reality they could ignore it all and tell Ireland to get stuffed.

Infini

Leroy42 wrote: »

Whether a deal or not I can't see how in 6 weeks the UK will be ready to leave on 29th.

So TM is going to be forced to request an extension. So is going to offer something to get it.

It seems since the vote this week that the UK think they have all the cards but nothing really has changed, except two more weeks will have passed by the time they vote again.

The thing is those saying they'll delay Brexit think the EU will just extend it no problem. The problem is that if the EU says no what then? They just crash out blaming the EU for their stupity? They know full well what those on the EU side want is for the UK to make up its damn mind and decide. If they just keep arguing by themselves the only way this goes anywhere is to force them to decide or crash by default/cancel for good.

Nody

Infini wrote: »

The thing is those saying they'll delay Brexit think the EU will just extend it no problem. The problem is that if the EU says no what then? They just crash out blaming the EU for their stupity? They know full well what those on the EU side want is for the UK to make up its damn mind and decide. If they just keep arguing by themselves the only way this goes anywhere is to force them to decide or crash by default/cancel for good.

Well as ridiculous as it sounds I think it's part of the plan for the likes of ERG etc. As the default is crash out all they need to do is ensure nothing gets decided in time, crash out and cash in those sweet shorts on the pound/stock market etc. and then they can allow the deal to go through. The real question mark though is will the house united behind an actual position on what it wants (i.e. no "We don't want crash out" like this week) and break whips to vote on in time to stop it (because of DUP it has to be cross party of Tory & Labour in some combination going against the whips of their respective parties)? My guess is they wont and they can't and hence hard crash out by incompetence (as shown by the refusal to take any responsibility on controlling Brexit multiple times; latest in this week's votes) but others are more optimistic than me

judeboy101

J Mysterio wrote: »

Paddy Power are running with some pretty provocative Brexit themed ads ahead of the Ireland England rugby game tomorrow.

https:/www.joe.ie/amp/sport/paddy-power-brexit-england-billboards-657007

The marketing dept at PP should win a pulitzer, they are hilarious.

blanch152

Scoondal wrote: »

Mrs May says UK will leave EU on 29 March. So, in a "no deal" exit, this will break the Good Friday agreement. Can Ireland go to a UN court or something to force UK to abide by the agreement ?
I suppose any country can break international peace agreements. Adolf Hitler broke many such agreements.

The Good Friday Agreement isn't enforceable in a court.

Nody

J Mysterio wrote: »

Paddy Power are running with some pretty provocative Brexit themed ads ahead of the Ireland England rugby game tomorrow.

https:/www.joe.ie/amp/sport/paddy-power-brexit-england-billboards-657007

Now they only need to win as well :P

And as the link did not work for me here's a second version of it.