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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

EdgeCase wrote: »

That's what I'm saying though - if you merged the two you wouldn't necessarily end up with the HSE in the North or the NHS NI in the south. You'd end up with something new.

Hopefully it might result in a total restructure.

We're on the same page, then; and the same would apply to just about every other aspect of reunification. This talk about the (unbearable) cost of the exercise is a perfect echo of the Brexiteers' mantra that Britain (being a member of the EU) is an economic powerhouse and so (not being a member of the EU) will continue to perform in exactly the same way when everything is different.

I'm not expecting a UI right away, but I do believe that Brexit has advanced it by at least two election cycles compared to where we were in the pre-referendum days. And when the time comes, I don't think it'll be a hair's breath majority. A cumulation of stresses (as described by Infini) will build up over a few years until one relatively inconsequential change (primarily for the benefit of the English) will prove too much for the NI electorate.

Of course, all of this is founded on Westminster precipitating a crash-out Brexit. Given the recent increase in media reports of stockpiling, cancelled frerry bookings, talk of suspending blood donations, mobilising of troops, etc. - and good old political bribery - there's still a good chance the current WA will be voted through by mid-March, an election will see the DUP restored to irrelevance in the HoC and NI will go back to being the sluggish but inoffensive backwater that neither GB nor the RoI care about that it's been for the last two decades.

MrMusician18

EdgeCase wrote: »

I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems being presented as a major problem for NI.

Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results.

I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled out nationally - take the best of both not just apply the HSE mess to it.

There are some things the Republic does far better than the North and there are some things that the North does far better than the Republic. Take best of both!

Also the likelihood is that NI would probably remain as a separate entity within some kind of new federal Ireland anyway.

I really can't see it just being slammed into the political system here without chaos.

It could be a great opportunity to create a much more devolved Irish government with maybe 3 states and a smaller, more effective federal Dáil and Senate.

Although, you'd probably have to come up with a more neutral language for things like the Federal Oireachtas due to extreme unionist sensitivities.

It's all very possible but it would have to be done with a sense of parity if esteem. If you had a simple supremacy of the systems and symbols we've evolved in the Republic, I think you'd have big issues up North.

You'd really need a very symbolically neutral, very secular, federal Republic that made a big effort to be inclusive.

There's a lot of embedded churchy stuff in the constitution and so on that would have to go or it would become a major issue.

You also couldn't realistically have compulsory Irish language teaching or any notion of one language being more important than the other or you'd have uproar in NI.

You'd have to present a totally new vision for something more like a Second Republic in the sense of how the French have gone through versions of theirs.

If wouldn't be easy.

I don't think it would be politically acceptable to the rest of the new nation to pander to the wants of circa 10% of the population.

The vote for unification would be in the basis of accepting the Irish Constitution as-is, with some form of transition a-la Hong Kong in the interim. The Irish Constitution would only need to change if it was thought that it would help to win a majority in NI but the majority will be there regardless of the changes

NI would likely exist much like today, probably a dual currency zone with stormont, maybe even joint authority with the UK for a period.

eagle eye

Russman wrote:

Its not a matter of anyone creating a border for the craic. There can't not be one if the UK isn't aligned with the EU rules. No trading bloc will ever just throw a blind eye to an open frontier with God only knows what crossing over into its territory/food supply, they'd be mad to. If a few head bangers up north start trouble again that's just how its got to be, til its clamped down on (hard) or the UK crashes so badly within a few months that they come looking for a new deal and the border will be item 1 or 2 on the agenda.

I don't give a continental about trade blocs or EU rules if it's going to lead to troubles in NI which will spread into the Republic.
You are willing to let her innocent people watch on in horror as this stuff starts up again and we all know there will be innocent victims just to put it to the UK?
<SNIP>

ancapailldorcha

sKeith wrote: »

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

Import tax sounds like something Westminster would control as opposed to being an international trade thing.

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't give a continental about trade blocs or EU rules if it's going to lead to troubles in NI which will spread into the Republic.
You are willing to let her innocent people watch on in horror as this stuff starts up again and we all know there will be innocent victims just to put it to the UK?
<SNIP>

Yeah the EU really arent at fault here, the UK is responsible for this mess and nobody else.

BTW saying you don't give a "continental" about trade blocs or EU rules is exactly what brexiteers said before and since the referendum......

trellheim

if its no-deal do borders have to go up in Gib and Cyprus as well ( the SBAs)

spacecoyote

sKeith wrote: »

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

Not 100% if that's what it means.

But if it did mean that, then, in essence it would mean thousands of more jobs gone in the UK I would think.

Why would any manufacturer in the UK keep production there when they could move it somewhere considerably cheaper & just export to the UK (that, or just end up going out of business)

EdgeCase

Well a lot of the architects of this chaos are also diehard libertarians, who believe that the state is just an impediment to free trade and nothing should be taxed or tarrifed.

I'm not at all convinced that's what most Brexiteers thought they were voting for. Many of them actually seemed to vote for Brexit to "take back control" of the economy into political hands, not to remove all controls entirely which is where this is going.

Much like American voters, they've fallen for a set of policies that could only ever benefit the super wealthy and will probably undermine most ordinary people.

First Up

sKeith wrote:

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

If they strike a bi-lateral free trade deal with China then, yes Chinese cars could be imported tax free. Of course Japan and every other auto making country would look for the same as part of their trade deals.

It would be a quick way to decimate the UK auto industry but if port congestion blocks JIT parts supply, the UK auto industry is scuppered anyway.

josip

Do people really believe that we have the logistical expertise to unify the country when we're incapable of building a children's hospital?
I don't.

Russman

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't give a continental about trade blocs or EU rules if it's going to lead to troubles in NI which will spread into the Republic.
You are willing to let her innocent people watch on in horror as this stuff starts up again and we all know there will be innocent victims just to put it to the UK?
Well you are a disgusting human being if you are willing to sacrifice lives over this crap.
**** borders, **** the UK, **** the EU if they let this happen. All of them, they are all playing a part on this.

For a start, nobody is asking for any lives to be sacrificed. Nobody is going to force anyone to pick up a gun or make a bomb, that's all their own choice if they so do. You know, like taking responsibility for ones own actions ?

All anyone of a nationalist leaning up there needs is patience and this would play itself out over a few months and the UK would likely be looking for a deal from the EU and part of that deal would no doubt be the border issue.

Chips Lovell

Hi folks,
Let's keep it civil and remember the charter:

No personal abuse. NEVER attack a poster. Attack the content of their post. (You can tell someone that their opinion is based on incomplete or incorrect information, but do not call them an idiot.)
No trolling or feeding the trolls. (including no excuses for joining a flaming match)

Keep your language civil, particularly when referring to other posters and people in the public eye.

Be nice. Thank you.

EdgeCase

josip wrote: »

Do people really believe that we have the logistical expertise to unify the country when we're incapable of building a children's hospital?
I don't.

Single projects go horribly wrong in most countries from time to time. Take a look at say nuclear plants - often go multiple times over budget. Boston's Big Dig... There's an endless list in the UK.

The NCH project is an a absolute mess financially but it's hardly something to write off the whole country over.

It's the product of bad management and political footballery by multiple political parties and often well meaning vested interests who kept moving the damn site, it's not just the current government.

It's a risk of big, politically driven one off projects.

trellheim

Folks : Updated guidance re driving in a post-brexit environment https://www.gov.uk/guidance/prepare-to-drive-in-the-eu-after-brexit (updated today )

See especially sections on new plates and stickers for UK cars . Will crosspost to motors.

Donald Trump

Marcusm wrote: »

Gibraltar is one of those real weird places adding little to the world but the people there don’t want to be part of Spain. It’s s bit rich of Spain given Ceuta in Morocco is their version of Gibraltar.

9 miles vs about 1000 miles in fairness.

Not saying I agree with them keeping it, but they would have a far stronger argument than the Brits would have.

EdgeCase

trellheim wrote: »

Folks : Updated guidance re driving in a post-brexit environment https://www.gov.uk/guidance/prepare-to-drive-in-the-eu-after-brexit (updated today )

See especially sections on new plates and stickers for UK cars . Will crosspost to motors.

I can see that being more of an issue with UK cars entering France or other continental countries.

We've never really enforced it and a lot of British and Northern Ireland cars have no identifying tags on the plates at all as it stands.

I hope the UK doesn't start requiring those bloody big IRL stickers tho, even tho the symbol is included on our plates

greenpilot

Here is a question for you folks.

I live in Co.Roscommon and the whole area is full of retired UK citizens who bought cheap houses and are living off their pensions while living permanently here in Ireland.
Will they be entitled to receive their benefits while remaining here in Ireland? A few of the usual "We do things better in the UK" types are keen to tell me that they will be able to continue to live here as normal after Brexit.

What do you think?

An Claidheamh

greenpilot wrote: »

A few of the usual "We do things better in the UK" types are keen to tell me that they will be able to continue to live here as normal after Brexit.

What do you think?

Same as their Spanish contingent so.

Appears to be a British characteristic acting as mutton dressed as lamb, Northern unionists often pretend also to be shocked by facilities when in fact their own are 3rd world.

I hope you told them they should go back to their own country then....

joe40

With all this talk of a prospect or otherwise for a united Ireland, maybe there should be a poll among Boards members who are for NI resident.

It could be called a Boarder poll!!!

jmayo

trellheim wrote: »

if its no-deal do borders have to go up in Gib and Cyprus as well ( the SBAs)

Yep they will require borders although in Cyprus case two or three due to fact their bases are all over the place.
Then again there is already limited crossing points as opposed to ours.

First Up wrote: »

If they strike a bi-lateral free trade deal with China then, yes Chinese cars could be imported tax free. Of course Japan and every other auto making country would look for the same as part of their trade deals.

It would be a quick way to decimate the UK auto industry but if port congestion blocks JIT parts supply, the UK auto industry is scuppered anyway.

The UK auto industry is not really the UKs.
They have now only one indigenous manufacturer, Morgan.
I think Noble have gone.

All the major British marques are foreign owned.
Land Rover/Jag are owned by Tata, a large chunk of which is ultimately owned by an Irish family, well they have the passports.
Mini and Rolls is BMW, Bentley is VW, Vauxhall is PSA now
Aston is on LSE, but has always been a loss making company for most of it's existence.

And here is the thing that really complicates it, a lot of the components for the all of the cars built in UK, be it Britsh marques or the foreign marques, are imported and often from EU.
For instance 60% of what goes into a Mini comes from France, Germany, Slovakia, Romania, Spain, etc.

The British auto industry is kinda screwed anyway if there is a no deal, with or without cheap Chinese imports.

10000maniacs

spacecoyote wrote: »

Not 100% if that's what it means.

But if it did mean that, then, in essence it would mean thousands of more jobs gone in the UK I would think.

Why would any manufacturer in the UK keep production there when they could move it somewhere considerably cheaper & just export to the UK (that, or just end up going out of business)

A tariff is a percentage rate that is ascertained by looking up HTS code under which you classify a product being imported into a third country.
The amount of duty depends on the quantity of the product being imported.

black forest

In the mean time the EU has upped it’s visa policy concerning UK citizens. For visitors there will be no visa for 90 days within every 180 day period. The same fits UK citizens with a Gib background. There is an already known pasus that there is a ongoing disput between UK and Spain concerning Gib but that’s definitely no annexion of Gib as it was portrayed beforehand.

Working visas for the relevant country is still nececessary and can’t be controlled or issued by the EU. Brits living within the EU should get residency status as fast as possible. So there is not much new. A nice summary of all this here:

https://twitter.com/stevepeers/status/1091307782920376320?s=21

Edit: The CTA between UK and Ireland stays untouched.

EdgeCase

greenpilot wrote: »

Here is a question for you folks.

I live in Co.Roscommon and the whole area is full of retired UK citizens who bought cheap houses and are living off their pensions while living permanently here in Ireland.
Will they be entitled to receive their benefits while remaining here in Ireland? A few of the usual "We do things better in the UK" types are keen to tell me that they will be able to continue to live here as normal after Brexit.

What do you think?

The answer is at present unclear.

Their private pensions and contributory pensions are likely to be unaffected but things like access to any public services would be subject to reciprocated arrangements in the UK for Irish citizens.

I don't think anyone can really give absolute answers to any of this as the British Government isn't competent enough to have thought this through.

If they do crash out, we really just don't know what could be impacted as the details haven't really been worked out.

It's beyond shocking that any sane government could do something so poorly planned but, that's what you're dealing with.

ambro25

I already knew about UK bankers, asset managers and insurers, but now we're taking to welcoming UK broadcasters as well: confirmation today that some UK-based broadcasters are in advanced talks with our Ministry for Medias and Telecoms, to locate their EU operation here.

Just like (most) ex-City types, they've all asked for 'great discretion', so no names released. At least, we know it's not the BBC: they're looking at the Netherlands or Belgium instead.

http://tab.news.paperjam.lu/news/le-luxembourg-ouvert-aux-broadcasters-anglais

briany

Donald Trump wrote: »

9 miles vs about 1000 miles in fairness.

Not saying I agree with them keeping it, but they would have a far stronger argument than the Brits would have.

The British are never going to give up Gibraltar without a proper fight. Not only is its culture British and not only do its residents vote overwhelmingly in favour of staying with the UK, but it is of strategic importance that is far too high for anything less than war to make it change hands, so Spain using simple emotional arguments is never really going to wash. The so-called 'joint sovereignty' option would be as good as it ever good with mere talking, but even that's been swept off the table for now.

It's all another part of what makes the cliff edge an imposing sight. If the UK were ever to seek to rejoin the EU, Gibraltar would immediately become a massive issue, with Spain looking for all kinds of concessions in order to ratify the UK's re-accession. It's just one of the crows that the UK would have to eat.

Hurrache

Re Gibraltar, they're very very angry at the moment because it was called a colony in that EU document.

eagle eye

VinLieger wrote:

BTW saying you don't give a "continental" about trade blocs or EU rules is exactly what brexiteers said before and since the referendum......

Peace is much more important.

VinLieger wrote:

Yeah the EU really arent at fault here, the UK is responsible for this mess and nobody else.

The EU have a responsibility to us. That responsibility includes making sure our lives are not in danger over a border.

Leroy42

EdgeCase wrote: »

It's beyond shocking that any sane government could do something so poorly planned but, that's what you're dealing with.

Exactly. They are so consumed with even trying to work out the very high level stuff (backstop) that they haven't given themselves any time to consider the realities of what is coming.

eagle eye

Russman wrote:

For a start, nobody is asking for any lives to be sacrificed. Nobody is going to force anyone to pick up a gun or make a bomb, that's all their own choice if they so do. You know, like taking responsibility for ones own actions ?

We all know that a border will bring back the troubles. We are responsible if we put conditions in place which will start the troubles again.

Russman wrote:

All anyone of a nationalist leaning up there needs is patience and this would play itself out over a few months and the UK would likely be looking for a deal from the EU and part of that deal would no doubt be the border issue.

It's not just nationalist, there is a unionist side too. Once one side kills one from the other side it's off and runny ng and it could take years to sort out if it ever stops.

El Weirdo

eagle eye wrote: »

Peace is much more important.

The EU have a responsibility to us. That responsibility includes making sure our lives are not in danger over a border.

You make it sound like we haven't had any input into how the EU are approaching the issue.