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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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EdgeCase

Well a lot of the architects of this chaos are also diehard libertarians, who believe that the state is just an impediment to free trade and nothing should be taxed or tarrifed.

I'm not at all convinced that's what most Brexiteers thought they were voting for. Many of them actually seemed to vote for Brexit to "take back control" of the economy into political hands, not to remove all controls entirely which is where this is going.

Much like American voters, they've fallen for a set of policies that could only ever benefit the super wealthy and will probably undermine most ordinary people.

spacecoyote

sKeith wrote: »

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

Not 100% if that's what it means.

But if it did mean that, then, in essence it would mean thousands of more jobs gone in the UK I would think.

Why would any manufacturer in the UK keep production there when they could move it somewhere considerably cheaper & just export to the UK (that, or just end up going out of business)

trellheim

if its no-deal do borders have to go up in Gib and Cyprus as well ( the SBAs)

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't give a continental about trade blocs or EU rules if it's going to lead to troubles in NI which will spread into the Republic.
You are willing to let her innocent people watch on in horror as this stuff starts up again and we all know there will be innocent victims just to put it to the UK?
<SNIP>

Yeah the EU really arent at fault here, the UK is responsible for this mess and nobody else.

BTW saying you don't give a "continental" about trade blocs or EU rules is exactly what brexiteers said before and since the referendum......

ancapailldorcha

sKeith wrote: »

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

Import tax sounds like something Westminster would control as opposed to being an international trade thing.

eagle eye

Russman wrote:

Its not a matter of anyone creating a border for the craic. There can't not be one if the UK isn't aligned with the EU rules. No trading bloc will ever just throw a blind eye to an open frontier with God only knows what crossing over into its territory/food supply, they'd be mad to. If a few head bangers up north start trouble again that's just how its got to be, til its clamped down on (hard) or the UK crashes so badly within a few months that they come looking for a new deal and the border will be item 1 or 2 on the agenda.

I don't give a continental about trade blocs or EU rules if it's going to lead to troubles in NI which will spread into the Republic.
You are willing to let her innocent people watch on in horror as this stuff starts up again and we all know there will be innocent victims just to put it to the UK?
<SNIP>

MrMusician18

EdgeCase wrote: »

I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems being presented as a major problem for NI.

Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results.

I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled out nationally - take the best of both not just apply the HSE mess to it.

There are some things the Republic does far better than the North and there are some things that the North does far better than the Republic. Take best of both!

Also the likelihood is that NI would probably remain as a separate entity within some kind of new federal Ireland anyway.

I really can't see it just being slammed into the political system here without chaos.

It could be a great opportunity to create a much more devolved Irish government with maybe 3 states and a smaller, more effective federal Dáil and Senate.

Although, you'd probably have to come up with a more neutral language for things like the Federal Oireachtas due to extreme unionist sensitivities.

It's all very possible but it would have to be done with a sense of parity if esteem. If you had a simple supremacy of the systems and symbols we've evolved in the Republic, I think you'd have big issues up North.

You'd really need a very symbolically neutral, very secular, federal Republic that made a big effort to be inclusive.

There's a lot of embedded churchy stuff in the constitution and so on that would have to go or it would become a major issue.

You also couldn't realistically have compulsory Irish language teaching or any notion of one language being more important than the other or you'd have uproar in NI.

You'd have to present a totally new vision for something more like a Second Republic in the sense of how the French have gone through versions of theirs.

If wouldn't be easy.

I don't think it would be politically acceptable to the rest of the new nation to pander to the wants of circa 10% of the population.

The vote for unification would be in the basis of accepting the Irish Constitution as-is, with some form of transition a-la Hong Kong in the interim. The Irish Constitution would only need to change if it was thought that it would help to win a majority in NI but the majority will be there regardless of the changes

NI would likely exist much like today, probably a dual currency zone with stormont, maybe even joint authority with the UK for a period.

CelticRambler

EdgeCase wrote: »

That's what I'm saying though - if you merged the two you wouldn't necessarily end up with the HSE in the North or the NHS NI in the south. You'd end up with something new.

Hopefully it might result in a total restructure.

We're on the same page, then; and the same would apply to just about every other aspect of reunification. This talk about the (unbearable) cost of the exercise is a perfect echo of the Brexiteers' mantra that Britain (being a member of the EU) is an economic powerhouse and so (not being a member of the EU) will continue to perform in exactly the same way when everything is different.

I'm not expecting a UI right away, but I do believe that Brexit has advanced it by at least two election cycles compared to where we were in the pre-referendum days. And when the time comes, I don't think it'll be a hair's breath majority. A cumulation of stresses (as described by Infini) will build up over a few years until one relatively inconsequential change (primarily for the benefit of the English) will prove too much for the NI electorate.

Of course, all of this is founded on Westminster precipitating a crash-out Brexit. Given the recent increase in media reports of stockpiling, cancelled frerry bookings, talk of suspending blood donations, mobilising of troops, etc. - and good old political bribery - there's still a good chance the current WA will be voted through by mid-March, an election will see the DUP restored to irrelevance in the HoC and NI will go back to being the sluggish but inoffensive backwater that neither GB nor the RoI care about that it's been for the last two decades.

blanch152

EdgeCase wrote: »

I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems being presented as a major problem for NI.

Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results.

I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled out nationally - take the best of both not just apply the HSE mess to it.

There are some things the Republic does far better than the North and there are some things that the North does far better than the Republic. Take best of both!

Also the likelihood is that NI would probably remain as a separate entity within some kind of new federal Ireland anyway.

I really can't see it just being slammed into the political system here without chaos.

It could be a great opportunity to create a much more devolved Irish government with maybe 3 states and a smaller, more effective federal Dáil and Senate.

Although, you'd probably have to come up with a more neutral language for things like the Federal Oireachtas due to extreme unionist sensitivities.

It's all very possible but it would have to be done with a sense of parity if esteem. If you had a simple supremacy of the systems and symbols we've evolved in the Republic, I think you'd have big issues up North.

You'd really need a very symbolically neutral, very secular, federal Republic that made a big effort to be inclusive.

There's a lot of embedded churchy stuff in the constitution and so on that would have to go or it would become a major issue.

You also couldn't realistically have compulsory Irish language teaching or any notion of one language being more important than the other or you'd have uproar in NI.

You'd have to present a totally new vision for something more like a Second Republic in the sense of how the French have gone through versions of theirs.

If wouldn't be easy.

So you want to cut nurse's pay? And numbers of nurses?

Any chance of that in the current environment?

blanch152

Infini wrote: »

I would wait to see what happens should the time come, the cost's themselves may not be as bad or as extreme as some might believe overall, one thing that could happen as well as because of the additional costs we could become a net reciepent of EU funds again, there's also potential for unification costs to be borne by what's left of the UK as well not to mention other forms of help.

Meanwhile the region in a UI isnt just going to be sitting there in a Bubble it's likely signicant inward investment would be targeted at the region to improve productivity and get people jobs. its an older article but a UI could project a net gain of €36 billion within 8 years of Unification.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/united-irish-economy-could-deliver-boost-of-36bn-388959.html

When you think of it it becomes less of NI being a cost to us and more of a mid term investment that will pay dividends for everyone in the long run. One other example is the region could be targeted to take pressure off Dublin as well and spread out things a bit and NI would win again in that regard.

I have heard all of this before many times. Nobody has explained to me whether social welfare rates in Northern Ireland will go up or whether social welfare rates in the South will go down.

If they go up, how much tax will be needed to pay for them and why would any taxpayer vote for that in addition to the need to replace the subsidy? If they go down, who would any social welfare recipient vote for Irish unity.

Ditto with public service salaries.

None of that has been factored into any scenario considered by any of the quasi-republican think-tanks that have produced "independent" reports on the cost of unity.

That report you link to is one of those. Who are KLC Consulting? A security networks company if you google them. Marcus Noland seems to be an expert on the North Korean economy.

sKeith

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This only applies to tariffs, not customs checks as far as I know.

Regarding the lack of FTA's, this isn't an immediate concern as tariffs can be lowered to zero for all imports. Obviously this will obliterate British agriculture but considering that the Home Counties were pro-Brexit...

If they lower tariffs to zero, does that mean, for example, that british garages could import loads of cheap Chinese cars and not have to pay any import tax on them?

EdgeCase

J Mysterio wrote: »

Im not saying it's neccesarily linked to Brexit per se (although you could draw some level of interconnectedness) but it fits very neatly with the Hostile Environment etc.

Its one thing to have retina scanners etc in Airports, quite another to have facial recognition walking down the high street.

That's being going on for decades tbh and Theresa May herself has very much Big Brother leanings.

The UK has also rolled out a giant internet filter too which was largely sold as a solution to online abuse and act as national Net Nanny filtering out porn and protecting children and vulnerable people from abuse but, it has a lot more potential use to monitor and censor content at an ISP level for any number of reasons.

Effectively, it could be used like the Great Firewall of China.

Christy42

I think the talk of a united Ireland is premature. Certainly the odds have gone up. One would wonder if we would get EU assistance in that case as Northern Ireland is one of the poorest regions in Northern Europe. However this is a wait and see moment as there is a great bit of uncertainty ahead.

With regards to the Washington Post unabashed nationalism line I wonder if it has more to do with disenchanted populace. They were given a shot at the government and they took it. The UK has a large proportion of very poor regions for how poor it is. It is essentially London funding a country (I think Scotland can look after itself as well). If someone can't express their annoyance at a system they will lash out. Maybe not in the best way for their own interests buy in a way that they will be heard. This inequality was there under conservatives and labour so simply cycling the government would have little effect.

Of course then you have to defend the decision and so the EU has to be the worst thing ever and be vilified more by the day.

We are not far off that either with how important Dublin is to the country. Porting out the civil service jobs out the country was a failure but the basic idea of making Dublin less important in an Irish context is a good one. We don't want to end up with a similar system. I don't think we would ever vote out of the EU but we may end up with our own version of populism eventually.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's the balance between individual rights and the greater good. I don't think it's necessarily a result of populist authoritarianism linked to Brexit but more to do with trying prevent further attacks by identifying known people of interest.

Im not saying it's neccesarily linked to Brexit per se (although you could draw some level of interconnectedness) but it fits very neatly with the Hostile Environment etc.

Its one thing to have retina scanners etc in Airports, quite another to have facial recognition walking down the high street.

EdgeCase

CelticRambler wrote: »

The NHS is another sacred cow in the UK, but is far from being a shining beacon of good practice. Apart from a few die-hard expats who import their croissants from Tesco-online, all of the British people I know in France get their healthcare in France because it's better, faster and cheaper than going back to the UK. Yes, cheaper - because even if treatment is "free at the point of delivery" there's still a signficant cost for anyone who has to wait for their care to be delivered. When you have the choice of waiting 3-10 days for heart surgery or a hip replacement, or 1-4 years to get it done free, most people will opt to pay the 100€ or so for the quick fix.

Furthermore, only yesterday it was announced (in the UK) that patients presenting at a GPs surgery will be offered not-a-doctor appointments instead, to "ease the burden" on GPs. Amongst the knock-on effects expected is for the ambulance service - already under strain because of Brexit - to lose even more paramedics, who opt for work in a clinic with normal day-time duties. The NHS is chronically short of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and paramedics. Sure, the HSE is a mess too; that doesn't mean that Brexit isn't going to be the straw that breaks the back of the NHS camel.

That's what I'm saying though - if you merged the two you wouldn't necessarily end up with the HSE in the North or the NHS NI in the south. You'd end up with something new.

Hopefully it might result in a total restructure.

There's a false assumption that the Republic's current systems would just replace the Northern ones like for like. I don't think that's likely or particularly sensible.

Done right, a united Ireland could be an opportunity to shake out a lot of the dross in both jurisdictions and have a totally new Ireland fit for the 21st century.

CelticRambler

EdgeCase wrote: »

I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems as being a major problem for NI.

Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results.

I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled

The NHS is another sacred cow in the UK, but is far from being a shining beacon of good practice. Apart from a few die-hard expats who import their croissants from Tesco-online, all of the British people I know in France get their healthcare in France because it's better, faster and cheaper than going back to the UK. Yes, cheaper - because even if treatment is "free at the point of delivery" there's still a signficant cost for anyone who has to wait for their care to be delivered. When you have the choice of waiting 3-10 days for heart surgery or a hip replacement, or 1-4 years to get it done free, most people will opt to pay the 100€ or so for the quick fix.

Furthermore, only yesterday it was announced (in the UK) that patients presenting at a GPs surgery will be offered not-a-doctor appointments instead, to "ease the burden" on GPs. Amongst the knock-on effects expected is for the ambulance service - already under strain because of Brexit - to lose even more paramedics, who opt for work in a clinic with normal day-time duties. The NHS is chronically short of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and paramedics. Sure, the HSE is a mess too; that doesn't mean that Brexit isn't going to be the straw that breaks the back of the NHS camel.

Dyr

J Mysterio wrote: »

They're completely losing the run of themselves in the UK.

As if the entire city of London and huge swathes of the UK being plastered in invasive CCTV were not enough, the MET in London are now trialing facial recognition cameras and harassing the public.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/facial-recognition-cameras-technology-london-trial-met-police-face-cover-man-fined-a8756936.html

This kind of bullsh1t in conjunction with the nasty, xenophobic Hostile Environment is just...
Then factor in whatever might become of the place after No Deal Brexit in terms of deregulation and slashing workers rights. It's a disturbing cocktail.

I can remember British cops being oustide UK festivals 10-20 years ago and they had units filming and photographing as many people as they could. They've always had a grá for mass surveillance.

jmayo

Quin_Dub wrote: »

...
People talk about German reunification as an example, but bear in mind that there is a strong argument to be made that those costs significantly contributed to the crash in '08 as the Germans kept pressure on the ECB to keep interests rates artificially low so that they could afford the repayments of the reunification costs.

Ireland would be at a different scale , but the costs could be astronomical for a population the size of ours (even including the extra few million from NI)

Rep of Ireland is no way comparable to West Germany and nearly 50% of the population of East Germany didn't want to join West Germany.

Only complete eejits ever see the cases for unification as similar.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Now that Ireland is substantially better off than NI, there has never been a better time for unification. The republic is in a position to manage the cost of unification and implement the reforms necessary in NI to bring their economey in line with the rest of the island. It would not be without disruption but, for the island as a whole, it would be much preferable to continuing with two seperate economic models, one of which is clearly failing.

Why do I somehow think you are a believer in sinn fein's magic money tree.
And I wonder if you are a taxpayer that will have to suffer a 10% odd tak hike.

AFAIK some big stats the Brits don't appear to notice.
They trade nearly twice as much with us as China, India and Brazil combined.
We are their 5th biggest trading partner and one of the most profitable.

Marcusm

Nody wrote: »

New EU regulation coming in which will make all the Brexiteers call for the war fleet to be sent out again....

Guess they should actually have bothered to speak with Spain a bit on the topic...

Gibraltar is one of those real weird places adding little to the world but the people there don’t want to be part of Spain. It’s s bit rich of Spain given Ceuta in Morocco is their version of Gibraltar.

EdgeCase

I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems being presented as a major problem for NI.

Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results.

I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled out nationally - take the best of both not just apply the HSE mess to it.

There are some things the Republic does far better than the North and there are some things that the North does far better than the Republic. Take best of both!

Also the likelihood is that NI would probably remain as a separate entity within some kind of new federal Ireland anyway.

I really can't see it just being slammed into the political system here without chaos.

It could be a great opportunity to create a much more devolved Irish government with maybe 3 states and a smaller, more effective federal Dáil and Senate.

Although, you'd probably have to come up with a more neutral language for things like the Federal Oireachtas due to extreme unionist sensitivities.

It's all very possible but it would have to be done with a sense of parity if esteem. If you had a simple supremacy of the systems and symbols we've evolved in the Republic, I think you'd have big issues up North.

You'd really need a very symbolically neutral, very secular, federal Republic that made a big effort to be inclusive.

There's a lot of embedded churchy stuff in the constitution and so on that would have to go or it would become a major issue.

You also couldn't realistically have compulsory Irish language teaching or any notion of one language being more important than the other or you'd have uproar in NI.

You'd have to present a totally new vision for something more like a Second Republic in the sense of how the French have gone through versions of theirs.

If wouldn't be easy.

Skelet0n

Leroy42 wrote: »

All because she doesn't have the balls to stand up for what she believes in.

She believes in the Tory party and she doesn’t really like foreigners. That’s basically it so she’s standing up for exactly what she believes in.

Leroy42

Ian Dunt's take on Brexit for the Washington Post.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1091309533241245696

First Up

ancapailldorcha wrote:

This only applies to tariffs, not customs checks as far as I know.

Without customs checks you can neither apply tariffs or test food safety. In fact the UK can turn a blind eye to imports of anything. It would make me nervous about buying a sandwich (or an electric kettle) but if they want such "freedom" they can have it.

Infini

blanch152 wrote: »

The republic is nowhere near being in the position to manage the cost of unification.

The cost of unification is much more than the 5-6 bn postulated by some, as all figures have excluded the cost of harmonisation of social welfare rates and public sector pay.

Not only that, but we will be in a post-Brexit scenario where our economy will be hurt and the Northern Ireland one devastated through loss of access to the UK market. Fiscal measures similar to the 2008-2012 period will be needed to address the hole in our finances.

I would wait to see what happens should the time come, the cost's themselves may not be as bad or as extreme as some might believe overall, one thing that could happen as well as because of the additional costs we could become a net reciepent of EU funds again, there's also potential for unification costs to be borne by what's left of the UK as well not to mention other forms of help.

Meanwhile the region in a UI isnt just going to be sitting there in a Bubble it's likely signicant inward investment would be targeted at the region to improve productivity and get people jobs. its an older article but a UI could project a net gain of €36 billion within 8 years of Unification.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/united-irish-economy-could-deliver-boost-of-36bn-388959.html

When you think of it it becomes less of NI being a cost to us and more of a mid term investment that will pay dividends for everyone in the long run. One other example is the region could be targeted to take pressure off Dublin as well and spread out things a bit and NI would win again in that regard.

Professor Moriarty

J Mysterio wrote: »

So it's ok to invade everyone's privacy so as to catch a few rotten eggs?

For me, its just symptomatic of a society veering off course and implementing dangerous, invasive Big Brother style policy.

It's the balance between individual rights and the greater good. I don't think it's necessarily a result of populist authoritarianism linked to Brexit but more to do with trying prevent further attacks by identifying known people of interest.

ancapailldorcha

First Up wrote: »

They can do that but as a WTO member they would then have to import from the EU on the same basis.

Of course they can try to negotiate free trade agreements with food supplying countries in Africa, Australasia, South America and Asia. That shouldn't take more than five years or so.

This only applies to tariffs, not customs checks as far as I know.

Regarding the lack of FTA's, this isn't an immediate concern as tariffs can be lowered to zero for all imports. Obviously this will obliterate British agriculture but considering that the Home Counties were pro-Brexit...

First Up

ancapailldorcha wrote:

Unless they decide to import food from outside the EU without customs.

They can do that but as a WTO member they would then have to import from the EU on the same basis.

Of course they can try to negotiate free trade agreements with food supplying countries in Africa, Australasia, South America and Asia. That shouldn't take more than five years or so.

J Mysterio

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

To be fair, considering some of the atrocities committed in Britain by various 'terrorists' over the past few years, I can understand why the Met would adopt a more stringent attitude.

So it's ok to invade everyone's privacy so as to catch a few rotten eggs?

For me, its just symptomatic of a society veering off course and implementing dangerous, invasive Big Brother style policy.

ancapailldorcha

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We are not going to lose access to the UK market - they have to eat.

Unless they decide to import food from outside the EU without customs.

Leroy42

Just listening to the latest Brexit Republic Podcast and they are discussing the pathway to the WA, and how the backstop was devised, created and amended.

What an absolute craven pack of liars and cheaters the British (well TM and her team) have been throughout the process.

I can imagine the dismay when they saw that TM was simply throwing back everything they had all worked so hard on for the last 2 years, all the compromises, all the facilitation.

All because she doesn't have the balls to stand up for what she believes in.