blanch152 wrote: » I doesn't fix the problem that most of the exports of Northern Ireland go to the rest of the UK.
Quin_Dub wrote: » That's today based on a reasonably stable economy etc. What might the annual costs be in 3-5 years after a no-deal Brexit? NI will be utterly destroyed in a no-deal scenario. The concept of unification is fine in a scenario where both side of the border are functioning economies and it is a merger of relative equals.. But in a situation like we could potentially be facing post brexit , it would be Ireland doing reasonably well and NI being an utterly shattered economy. People talk about German reunification as an example, but bear in mind that there is a strong argument to be made that those costs significantly contributed to the crash in '08 as the Germans kept pressure on the ECB to keep interests rates artificially low so that they could afford the repayments of the reunification costs. Ireland would be at a different scale , but the costs could be astronomical for a population the size of ours (even including the extra few million from NI)
Havockk wrote: » the DUP are doing SF's heavy lifting for them.
J Mysterio wrote: » They're completely losing the run of themselves in the UK. As if the entire city of London and huge swathes of the UK being plastered in invasive CCTV were not enough, the MET in London are now trialing facial recognition cameras and harassing the public.https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/facial-recognition-cameras-technology-london-trial-met-police-face-cover-man-fined-a8756936.html This kind of bullsh1t in conjunction with the nasty, xenophobic Hostile Environment is just... Then factor in whatever might become of the place after No Deal Brexit in terms of deregulation and slashing workers rights. It's a disturbing cocktail.
Imreoir2 wrote: » Unification could never happen when we were poorer because NI would never vote to make themselves poorer, unification can't happen now that they are poorer because we could never manage the burden, unification would never happen if we were largely the same because NI would never want to risk their economey for no potential gain, in other words unification can never happen. Now that Ireland is substantially better off than NI, there has never been a better time for unification. The republic is in a position to manage the cost of unification and implement the reforms necessary in NI to bring their economey in line with the rest of the island. It would not be without disruption but, for the island as a whole, it would be much preferable to continuing with two seperate economic models, one of which is clearly failing.
lawred2 wrote: That's what the majority approved GFA states.
blanch152 wrote: » Not only that, but we will be in a post-Brexit scenario where our economy will be hurt and the Northern Ireland one devastated through loss of access to the UK market.
Zubeneschamali wrote: » We are not going to lose access to the UK market - they have to eat.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » To be fair, considering some of the atrocities committed in Britain by various 'terrorists' over the past few years, I can understand why the Met would adopt a more stringent attitude.
ancapailldorcha wrote: Unless they decide to import food from outside the EU without customs.
First Up wrote: » They can do that but as a WTO member they would then have to import from the EU on the same basis. Of course they can try to negotiate free trade agreements with food supplying countries in Africa, Australasia, South America and Asia. That shouldn't take more than five years or so.
J Mysterio wrote: » So it's ok to invade everyone's privacy so as to catch a few rotten eggs? For me, its just symptomatic of a society veering off course and implementing dangerous, invasive Big Brother style policy.
blanch152 wrote: » The republic is nowhere near being in the position to manage the cost of unification. The cost of unification is much more than the 5-6 bn postulated by some, as all figures have excluded the cost of harmonisation of social welfare rates and public sector pay. Not only that, but we will be in a post-Brexit scenario where our economy will be hurt and the Northern Ireland one devastated through loss of access to the UK market. Fiscal measures similar to the 2008-2012 period will be needed to address the hole in our finances.
ancapailldorcha wrote: This only applies to tariffs, not customs checks as far as I know.
Leroy42 wrote: » All because she doesn't have the balls to stand up for what she believes in.
Nody wrote: » New EU regulation coming in which will make all the Brexiteers call for the war fleet to be sent out again.... Guess they should actually have bothered to speak with Spain a bit on the topic...
Quin_Dub wrote: » ... People talk about German reunification as an example, but bear in mind that there is a strong argument to be made that those costs significantly contributed to the crash in '08 as the Germans kept pressure on the ECB to keep interests rates artificially low so that they could afford the repayments of the reunification costs. Ireland would be at a different scale , but the costs could be astronomical for a population the size of ours (even including the extra few million from NI)
Imreoir2 wrote: » Now that Ireland is substantially better off than NI, there has never been a better time for unification. The republic is in a position to manage the cost of unification and implement the reforms necessary in NI to bring their economey in line with the rest of the island. It would not be without disruption but, for the island as a whole, it would be much preferable to continuing with two seperate economic models, one of which is clearly failing.
EdgeCase wrote: » I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems as being a major problem for NI. Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results. I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled
CelticRambler wrote: » The NHS is another sacred cow in the UK, but is far from being a shining beacon of good practice. Apart from a few die-hard expats who import their croissants from Tesco-online, all of the British people I know in France get their healthcare in France because it's better, faster and cheaper than going back to the UK. Yes, cheaper - because even if treatment is "free at the point of delivery" there's still a signficant cost for anyone who has to wait for their care to be delivered. When you have the choice of waiting 3-10 days for heart surgery or a hip replacement, or 1-4 years to get it done free, most people will opt to pay the 100€ or so for the quick fix. Furthermore, only yesterday it was announced (in the UK) that patients presenting at a GPs surgery will be offered not-a-doctor appointments instead, to "ease the burden" on GPs. Amongst the knock-on effects expected is for the ambulance service - already under strain because of Brexit - to lose even more paramedics, who opt for work in a clinic with normal day-time duties. The NHS is chronically short of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and paramedics. Sure, the HSE is a mess too; that doesn't mean that Brexit isn't going to be the straw that breaks the back of the NHS camel.
Professor Moriarty wrote: » It's the balance between individual rights and the greater good. I don't think it's necessarily a result of populist authoritarianism linked to Brexit but more to do with trying prevent further attacks by identifying known people of interest.
J Mysterio wrote: » Im not saying it's neccesarily linked to Brexit per se (although you could draw some level of interconnectedness) but it fits very neatly with the Hostile Environment etc. Its one thing to have retina scanners etc in Airports, quite another to have facial recognition walking down the high street.
ancapailldorcha wrote: » This only applies to tariffs, not customs checks as far as I know. Regarding the lack of FTA's, this isn't an immediate concern as tariffs can be lowered to zero for all imports. Obviously this will obliterate British agriculture but considering that the Home Counties were pro-Brexit...
Infini wrote: » I would wait to see what happens should the time come, the cost's themselves may not be as bad or as extreme as some might believe overall, one thing that could happen as well as because of the additional costs we could become a net reciepent of EU funds again, there's also potential for unification costs to be borne by what's left of the UK as well not to mention other forms of help. Meanwhile the region in a UI isnt just going to be sitting there in a Bubble it's likely signicant inward investment would be targeted at the region to improve productivity and get people jobs. its an older article but a UI could project a net gain of €36 billion within 8 years of Unification.https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/united-irish-economy-could-deliver-boost-of-36bn-388959.html When you think of it it becomes less of NI being a cost to us and more of a mid term investment that will pay dividends for everyone in the long run. One other example is the region could be targeted to take pressure off Dublin as well and spread out things a bit and NI would win again in that regard.
EdgeCase wrote: » I keep seeing the loss of the NHS systems being presented as a major problem for NI. Why would those systems be replaced at all? They're more effective and cheaper per capita than the HSE. If anything, assuming the HSE budget were applied on a per capita basis, the North would suddenly have more (not less) investment in health and has a system that spends money much better than the HSE in terms of delivering results. I'd hope that the NHS NI models might rolled out nationally - take the best of both not just apply the HSE mess to it. There are some things the Republic does far better than the North and there are some things that the North does far better than the Republic. Take best of both! Also the likelihood is that NI would probably remain as a separate entity within some kind of new federal Ireland anyway. I really can't see it just being slammed into the political system here without chaos. It could be a great opportunity to create a much more devolved Irish government with maybe 3 states and a smaller, more effective federal Dáil and Senate. Although, you'd probably have to come up with a more neutral language for things like the Federal Oireachtas due to extreme unionist sensitivities. It's all very possible but it would have to be done with a sense of parity if esteem. If you had a simple supremacy of the systems and symbols we've evolved in the Republic, I think you'd have big issues up North. You'd really need a very symbolically neutral, very secular, federal Republic that made a big effort to be inclusive. There's a lot of embedded churchy stuff in the constitution and so on that would have to go or it would become a major issue. You also couldn't realistically have compulsory Irish language teaching or any notion of one language being more important than the other or you'd have uproar in NI. You'd have to present a totally new vision for something more like a Second Republic in the sense of how the French have gone through versions of theirs. If wouldn't be easy.
