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Recession predictions

Pussyhands

Give your predictions for if/when a recession will occur.

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[Deleted User]

greenfield21 wrote: »

Will globalisation survive another recession? We still haven't got over the last big one. If people want change now what will they be like then?

Good question, probably, might take a different shape. I think the swing to the right will continue, maybe a bit faster. The GFC was a major kick the can down the road job. Now we have to deal with it plus a decade of debt and misallocation of resources. It has the potential to be one for the history books. The GFC might end up as a side note about how it was the foundation for the real trouble.

Its very easy to be pessimistic about the situation now. At the same time the GFC taught us that even in the worst hit places the world didnt end and you didnt need tins of beans and a shotgun to get by. Its very easy to exaggerate it too.

[Deleted User]

btw the pcp car financing is interesting, sure it wont be the cause of the recession but its a real microcosm of how the west has mishandled the past 10 years

Drumpot

Deleted User wrote: »

btw the pcp car financing is interesting, sure it wont be the cause of the recession but its a real microcosm of how the west has mishandled the past 10 years

I rely on the will of everybody to make this global ponzy scheme work no matter what the cost. It’s remarkable how the rules are changed when banks or the financial system is under jeopardy. Protectionist Socialism for the banks, capitalism for the rest of us. It’s a cycle because it’s a fundamentally broken financial system and just gets repaired every few years, that will continue to happen until some sort of revolution.

The bitcoin currency has been an interesting challange to the status quo. If the focus was less so on financial gain and more so on practical use, it could really shake up the system.

I think the emotions of us all plays a huge role. Sentiment, not actual value, drives everything, it’s actually crazy. It may feel like something is or might be worse but generally that’s how it feels when it’s happening. When you step back or reflect I remember thinking it was the end of life as we knew it during the last crash.

benjamin d

Crypto is/was an interesting challenge to the status quo alright, but unfortunately I think there was a concerted and largely successful attempt to have it subsumed into the mix of standard investment instruments, which has made it essentially impotent as a true game changer now. The big boys won that fight IMO, but I don't know much tbh

one world order

No major recession while Trump is in power. Too unpredictable for those that control the world to bring in their one world currency instead of the debt based currencies we currently have.

Pussyhands

Bump. Lots has happened in the last few months. Anyone with an update on their thoughts?

Geuze

Slowdown in happened in the EU, see here:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9539637/2-31012019-AP-EN.pdf/fead6e91-cd7f-4654-b5d7-81fef584772d

Italy is in technical recession.

KevinCavan

The inevitable will happen in the next three years, more supply will equal less demand. Here is the latest Daft.ie report:
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/rent-crisis-first-sign-of-slowdown-despite-record-prices-37799910.html

Pussyhands

Reading news seems very ominous these days.

Business headlines on RTE has 6 headlines, 3 of them negative.

1. Nissan cuts forecast figures
2. iPhone sales fell by 20% in Q4
3. TUI's quarterly loss widens

KevinCavan

maldondo wrote: »

It feels like there's a perfect storm brewing. Take Spirit Motors for example, massively financially leveraged due to aggressive expansion and very reliant on the p.c.p. model for revenue. If there's a dip in the economy the cars will be handed back = disaster!

The changes in the motor industry over the next five years will be significant. A lot of new diesel cars bought today will hardly hold their value as much as p.c.p. financing predicts.

Pussyhands

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M

the big recession indicator inches closer to inversion...

The fed are not raising rates for the rest of the year....basically means they think the economy can't take an increase. Pretty worrying. It's brewing I feel.

Wanderer78

Pussyhands wrote:

the big recession indicator inches closer to inversion...

I'm not convinced at all that the next recession will be as bad as the last, I could be wrong of course

Pussyhands

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'm not convinced at all that the next recession will be as bad as the last, I could be wrong of course

The last recession was hard but didn't last long. With low interest rates there is very little room to provide stimulus if things do go tits up.

The IMF have said this.

It is a possibility I think that we recovered so quickly from the last recession means we might have offset future pain.

Wanderer78

Pussyhands wrote: »

The last recession was hard but didn't last long. With low interest rates there is very little room to provide stimulus if things do go tits up.

The IMF have said this.

It is a possibility I think that we recovered so quickly from the last recession means we might have offset future pain.

i do think economist michael hudson is somewhat right, we havent really come out of the last recession, we re still knee deep in it, we havent really solved many of the underlining issues that caused it

Snow Garden

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i do think economist michael hudson is somewhat right, we havent really come out of the last recession, we re still knee deep in it, we havent really solved many of the underlining issues that caused it

I'd agree with that. Many large economies (US, China, EU etc) simply borrowed and/or printed money to ride out the recession. I think we are already sliding into another major global recession. I have sold all my shares over the past 6 weeks and converted them to cash. I should have sold some of them before Xmas.

Franz Von Peppercorn

We’re still paying off from the last recession. That was the worst since the depression by the way so don’t underestimate it. In contrast most recessions are a few months affair and with two years the gdp is restored.

Wanderer78

Snow Garden wrote: »

I'd agree with that. Many large economies (US, China, EU etc) simply borrowed and/or printed money to ride out the recession. I think we are already sliding into another major global recession. I have sold all my shares over the past 6 weeks and converted them to cash. I should have sold some of them before Xmas.

its impossible to say what will or wont happen, its understandable that you d sell all your shares, but we ve no way of really telling what ll happen, stock prices will slump a bit, by how much, and how long for, who knows, i think id like some gold in my arsenal, i should really investigate it more

Pussyhands

New stories beginning to hit the mainstream news now more often. Something brewing.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0322/1038044-markets-global-fall/

Geuze

Bond yields in the USA have inverted:

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/03/inversion

10yr-3mo spread is now zero.

Geuze

See what has happened before when the bond spread has inverted:

The shaded areas are recessions.

Snow Garden

Do any of ye try and make money from forecasting a deep recession? For example, do you short shares?

Deub

Snow Garden wrote: »

Do any of ye try and make money from forecasting a deep recession? For example, do you short shares?

I buy Lyxor CAC40 (BX4) which is an ETF inverse X2 linked to the French CAC40. Basically when the CAC40 goes down 1%, the BX4 goes 2% up and vice versa. It helps to limit my exposure of my portfolio when I think the CAC40 may go down.

[Deleted User]

Deub wrote: »

I buy Lyxor CAC40 (BX4) which is an ETF inverse X2 linked to the French CAC40. Basically when the CAC40 goes down 1%, the BX4 goes 2% up and vice versa. It helps to limit my exposure of my portfolio when I think the CAC40 may go down.

Is this just betting against yourself?

Deub

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Is this just betting against yourself?

I reduce the share part to take BX4. It is a way of still having a profit when the market goes down.

KevinCavan

We are very reliant on American companies in Ireland. If they ever leave en masse we are fecked beyond belief. But for now we’ll say nothin about not taxing the yanks.

[Deleted User]

Deub wrote: »

I reduce the share part to take BX4. It is a way of still having a profit when the market goes down.

It's a bit like betting on the red and the black at roulette and claiming to be making a profit.

Deub

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

It's a bit like betting on the red and the black at roulette and claiming to be making a profit.

Except when I am saying profit, I mean overall. You increase and decrease the volume of BX4 depending of the situations.

Wanderer78

KevinCavan wrote:

We are very reliant on American companies in Ireland. If they ever leave en masse we are fecked beyond belief. But for now weâ€™ll say nothin about not taxing the yanks.

I ll say plenty about it then, tax avoidance is immoral and dangerous, not only are we losing out on much needed revenue, we re facilitating these activities, and preventing other countries from obtaining much needed revenue also, sovereign wealth funds could be used to rectify this. Job creation alone will not solve these issues, large corporations need to start paying more tax.

Hobosan

The modern financial system is the greatest religion the world has ever seen. Where traditional religions neglected to offer power to gifted numbers men, banking institutions stepped in and filled the void, adding an element of pure logic to the myth.

As sure as the wrong kind of Christians would sooner burn at the stake than renounce their beliefs in the past, modern people will see their communities, businesses, and livlihood destroyed before ever considering apostosising from the financial system.

I predict that the next recession will cause absolutely nobody to question the efficacy of this religion. It satiates all desires of every stratum of society. To even consider an alternative is to stare into the abyss.

Wanderer78

Hobosan wrote:

I predict that the next recession will cause absolutely nobody to question the efficacy of this religion. It satiates all desires of every stratum of society. To even consider an alternative is to stare into the abyss.

I'm not convinced the next recession will be catastrophic as some predict, of course I could be very wrong, but thankfully there's currently a revolution occuring in monetary understanding, sparked from 2008, it's an exciting time