Irish Praetorian wrote: » Yeah I'm not so sure; because when you say 'not every Catholic is a nationalist seeking a UI' I think you might be burying the lead a little. As much as half the Catholic population has no interest in a UI and whilst I could certainly see that being ginned up in a referendum (like in Scotland) the idea of it being sufficiently large to overcome the Protestant majority for the foreseeable future is, in my view, quite remote.
sandbelter wrote: » i have to say I agree, I'm constantly surprised by the large number of NI Catholic's that view themselves as British. As for the Unionist, they have always been very honest as to they are; They have never shown any interest in being Irish, they arrived British, lived British, died British. I've always thought Scotland has to go first. If the ballot paper says are you British or Irish? NI will chose Britain. But, if the ballot paper says are you English or Irish? NI will chose UI. Without Scotland there no such place as Britain, there is simply only England (Wales an an accent and a Rugby team not a country)
RobMc59 wrote: » The Welsh are allegedly the closest to the original people of Britain before all the invasions,so don`t dis them!:rolleyes:
An Ciarraioch wrote: » We were talking about Ray Bassett earlier, so, of course, he'll be on Radio 4's Today programme tomorrow:http://twitter.com/ray_basssett/status/1091039740760150017
Thargor wrote: The Protestant majority you mention is down to 3%, at the next census it will likely become the Protestant minority, actually seeing as census data is from 2011 its probably more accurate to say Protestants are the minority right now, and a shrinking minority, versus a growing Catholic majority, its a perfectly foreseeable future, practically inevitable now. When it comes time to vote in a border poll theres no way ~50% of the Catholic population will sit on their hands whill ~100% of the Protestant vote casts a ballot (got a source for that 50% not interested in UI btw?).
Anthracite wrote: » They dis themselves. Barely had the confidence to award themselves a talking shop. They are happy being an appendage of England.
ste wrote: » The only way I can see Britain cohesing is hard brexit & to let it begin to crumble. Of course EU/Ireland will take a lot of flak and we will suffer, but the Moggs/BoJo/ERG/etc/etc need to shown to be wholly wrong & that they betrayed the people. The dishonesty of the Brexiteers is disgusting & they need to be swept away.
Thargor wrote: » The Protestant majority you mention is down to 3%, at the next census it will likely become the Protestant minority, actually seeing as census data is from 2011 its probably more accurate to say Protestants are the minority right now, and a shrinking minority, versus a growing Catholic majority, its a perfectly foreseeable future, practically inevitable now. When it comes time to vote in a border poll theres no way ~50% of the Catholic population will sit on their hands whill ~100% of the Protestant vote casts a ballot (got a source for that 50% not interested in UI btw?).
listermint wrote: » What's with the religious aspect ? Sure the majority have always only ever looked at their pockets up there. Say one thing do another. There's a hard minority with the viewpoints you are expressing. The rest are in the middle ground just wanting to get on with life and concerned about job and family. I think that your stats opinion is way off the mark
sandbelter wrote: » i have to say I agree, I'm constantly surprised by the large number of NI Catholic's that view themselves as British. As for the Unionist, they have always been very honest as to they are; They have never shown any interest in being Irish, they arrived British, lived British, died British.
Sam Russell wrote: » It would depend on the deal on offer. 1. UK could continue subsidy. 2. NI should escape without the share of the huge UK National Debt 3. EU would likely chip a few bob of regional aid, and a few other funds. 4. Ireland could agree to some continuance of a NI assembly - at least for a transition - even a period of joint authority. 5. A transition for tax equalisation - with a NHS type continuance. On balance, we voted 95% for the GFA, so I would expect it would carry hugely in Ireland. NI might be a bit more tricky - but the Unionists appear happy to accept a 52%/48% vote in some matters. If the UK is basically neutral or even in favour of a UI, then that would help.
CelticRambler wrote: » I'm talking about the establishment of an Irish Sea border after a chaotic Brexit, when NI has already begun to feel the effects of being at one with a post-Brexit UK. If NI went straight from its current "Irish Sea lite" separation to "Irish Sea a-little-bit-less-lite" as part of the WA (i.e. the Dec 2017 proposal) then there'd be no reason to opt for re-unification as they'd be getting the best of all worlds. But if the UK crashes out, a hard border is established, NI's economy goes through the floor with no help available in Westminster, then an Irish Sea border will go from being "tolerable" to "desireable". Not the best-of-all-worlds offer that's on the table now, but a keep-you-fed-and-alive agreement. Give it two years, with the RoI back on its feet and still no Brexit dividend in evidence for the UK, the pragmatic voters in NI will start asking "what's in it for us?" and seriously consider the advantages of Irish reunification. It'll probably be something completely unrelated, something that primarily affects the English (who will have again forgotten about NI) that tips the balance; something like the return of military service/conscription or the imposition of ID cards.
jm08 wrote: » That doesn't hold up in surveys. 4% of catholics few themselves as British in NI. 58.6% said they felt Irish 57.9% said they felt Northern Irish 56.7% said they felt European 46.7% for people who felt British. 29% of people from a Protestant background defined themselves as Irish 4% of people from a Catholic background who identified as British.https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-half-of-people-in-northern-ireland-consider-themselves-british-survey-36991147.html
Anthracite wrote: » It's funny how this strange man who espouses what is essentially a lunatic fringe view here and has essentially no public profile has no trouble getting serious exposure in the UK (because he tells them what they want to hear) but non-DUP voices in NI (the actual substantial majority) are completely absent. I wonder why.
blanch152 wrote: » Ray Bassett is a strange one. Never made it to the top of the diplomatic service, despite a long career.
blanch152 wrote: » The conditions that would cause Northern Irish people to vote for a united Ireland (a disastorous no-deal Brexit that bankrupts the UK) are the opposite of tthe conditions needed for the South to vote for unity. That is one of the biggest contradictions in the argument for unity.
RobMc59 wrote: » I doubt you`ve ever heard of Owain Glyndwr,the last true Prince of Wales and the scourge of the English.He terrorised the English for years!-the Welsh are a very proud race-your dismissal of them does them a disservice imo.
Irish Praetorian wrote: » I really struggle to see a scenario where the numbers end up in favour of unification.
Anthracite wrote: » I have heard of him. And, as I said, I'm not dismissing them - they dismiss themselves as demonstrated by their contentment with their status as essentially an eccentric county of England. I don't understand it, for sure, but they are happy enough it seems. Anyway, this is pretty off topic.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Seems the hardships/instability a hard border brings will change many people's minds. No requirement for bankruptcy. Also the prospect of Scotland jumping ship is another route by which it may come.
Beechwoodspark wrote: » See my post from around 8-20 am this morning
blanch152 wrote: » The feverish speculation for a united Ireland reminds me most of raving Tory backbencher Brexiteers for its relationship to reality. If it happens the way they want, it is because people have lost their senses.
joe40 wrote: » I really don't see a united ireland unless there is a serious deterioration in the economic situation in the north. Even nationalist who would consider themselves "Irish" still look at things like paying for doctor visits, school books, bins etc as something they would have difficulty with
The dentists' organisation says almost 430,000 penalty fines were issued last year - which they say is often "simply for ticking the wrong box on claim forms".
Capt'n Midnight wrote: » joe40 wrote: » I really don't see a united ireland unless there is a serious deterioration in the economic situation in the north. Even nationalist who would consider themselves "Irish" still look at things like paying for doctor visits, school books, bins etc as something they would have difficulty with HSE on the way up is meeting the NHS on the way downDental visits down 25% by fining people The dentists' organisation says almost 430,000 penalty fines were issued last year - which they say is often "simply for ticking the wrong box on claim forms". A man has claimed he pulled out one of his own teeth after waiting more than 18 months to find an NHS dentist.Then there's the whole assessment process replacing DLA with PIP Lots of people have lost benefits. And wages and dole down here are higher even when you factor in living costs.
Irish Praetorian wrote: » Just to note while we have that poll linked, since it's quite recent, one page 44 one can observe that in the event of a border poll being called, about 21.1% of the entire NI population would vote for unification. Broken down, that includes 42.4% of Catholics and 3.6% of Protestants. Now of course, one could argue one campaigning starts those numbers might look stronger and more people might come to the table, fair enough. To address that I think we can use the comparison with the IndyRef in Scotland back in 2014, which saw polling for independence start out at 35% in favour and climaxed at 45% on the day. I really struggle to see a scenario where the numbers end up in favour of unification.
