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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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RobMc59

briany wrote: »

I'd agree with much of what he wrote if it were an appeal to simple living, making do with less, and appreciating that many nice things we have are due to vast and complicated global logistics.

But he appears to be writing it in a 'Britain can take it!' way. This mentality seems to going around a fair bit in the UK. The trouble with adopting the Blitz Spirit in the face of potential shortages, is that many people talking about it have never been through it.

Why on earth would you take the meandering views of an Eton toff as the opinion of the general public in Britain?

Amprodude

May is a farce of a politician. She can't be taken seriously.

VinLieger

briany wrote: »

The trouble with adopting the Blitz Spirit in the face of potential shortages, is that many people talking about it have never been through it.

Also people were united in their resolve to get on with it because they all had a common external enemy.

Its not gonna be easy when remainers are being forced to live the blitz lifestyle and then also have to queue for food rations with brexiters who are the ones responsible.

The blitz spirit got everyone through because they were united. The uk currently couldnt be more divided.

Leroy42

MPFGLB wrote: »

IDS then went on to say on how UK were working well with Kenny but LV pushed the EU onto the backstop and "the idea of flexibility is literally a question for the Irish government ...to what degree are you prepared to be flexible about the nature of how the border works so you dont have a hard border ..its is wholly feasible to make it like that ...that was the original idea"

Great, so did IDS expand on what the plan for a outcome that doesn't involve a backstop would mean? Or did he simply leave it on the basis that he likes Kenny more.

BTW of course Kenny could afford to be more accommodating in his approach, he was trying to butter the UK up with nothing on the line. Christ on a bike, the fact that IDS and others cannot even understand that simple point.

lawred2

briany wrote: »

I'd agree with much of what he wrote if it were an appeal to simple living, making do with less, and appreciating that many nice things we have are due to vast and complicated global logistics.

But he appears to be writing it in a 'Britain can take it!' way. This mentality seems to going around a fair bit in the UK. The trouble with adopting the Blitz Spirit in the face of potential shortages, is that many people talking about it have never been through it.

Such utter mendacity to be invoking mythical war time sprit for something so entirely avoidable and self destructive..

The eagerness to embrace self harm is loony bin territory

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

I'd agree with much of what he wrote if it were an appeal to simple living, making do with less, and appreciating that many nice things we have are due to vast and complicated global logistics.

But he appears to be writing it in a 'Britain can take it!' way. This mentality seems to going around a fair bit in the UK. The trouble with adopting the Blitz Spirit in the face of potential shortages, is that many people talking about it have never been through it.

The not so subtle reference to Dunkirk is the icing on the cake. I understand your point about simple living but it's from Charles Moore so it's simply jingoistic nonsense dressed up as nostalgia.

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why on earth would you take the meandering views of an Eton toff as the opinion of the general public in Britain?

Never mind the fact that he's clearly talking to people who can afford to hop on the yacht and have a jolly good sail over to Calais and stock up on vino, green beans and fresh salads. And have access to straw, shelves and apples to store on them.

Scoondal

We can continue talking to ourselves here. But EU and UK have finished talking for now. The standoff has begun.
UK will say that they have new proposals for the Irish border. That will be just theoretical rubbish. Mrs. May insists UK will leave EU on 29 March. Won't happen.
UK will blink first in my opinion.

otnomart

otnomart wrote: »

"The Commission has adopted plans to reroute Ireland’s freight to ports in Belgium and the Netherlands".
I remember reading the article when it was published, here is the link
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-french-ireland-ports-cut-out-of-eu-trade-route-after-brexit/

and Today's news:
"French ports including Calais, Dunkirk and Le Havre are set to be included in a valuable EU trade corridor after Brexit following protests from the country’s politicians."
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-trade-french-ports-find-favor-in-brussels/

Leroy42

It does seem very likely that they will need at least one delay to the 29th March deadline.

I wonder how that will go down in the UK as they have been stating for the last two years no delay.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

It does seem very likely that they will need at least one delay to the 29th March deadline.

I wonder how that will go down in the UK as they have been stating for the last two years no delay.

Judging by some comments I have seen many will scream at the injustice of the EU forcing them to stay. I am not sure how they reach that conclusion but I have seen the EU blamed over this potential delay.

briany

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why on earth would you take the meandering views of an Eton toff as the opinion of the general public in Britain?

It's not a view of the general public..... At least not of roughly one half of the proportion who can vote.

People like this gentleman,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pnJ5WRpM0oI

Scoondal

Leroy42 wrote: »

It does seem very likely that they will need at least one delay to the 29th March deadline.

I wonder how that will go down in the UK as they have been stating for the last two years no delay.

Mrs May has repeatedly said " The UK will leave EU on 29 March". That is total rubbish. UK citizens voted to leave EU and the UK government set down 29 March as the date. I think it is disgusting to continue treating the UK electorate as if they are fools. UK will not leave EU on 29 March. Mrs May should start being honest with everyone and stop being a liar.

Mr.Wemmick

Scoondal wrote: »

Mrs May has repeatedly said " The UK will leave EU on 29 March". That is total rubbish. UK citizens voted to leave EU and the UK government set down 29 March as the date. I think it is disgusting to continue treating the UK electorate as if they are fools. UK will not leave EU on 29 March. Mrs May should start being honest with everyone and stop being a liar.

The Tories default stance is to lie about everything. That is why politics in the UK is broken and no longer fit for purpose.

ste

I'm coming around to the conclusion that there needs to be a hard brexit to bring reality home. I can't see how any option now will bring Britain together & remove uncertainty & division. There's more pain coming no matter how they continue...

- a version of WA agreement being passed, it's mostly aspirational stuff
- a50 extension for more negotiation
- second vote
- some bluster which is close to non-brexit

The only way I can see Britain cohesing is hard brexit & to let it begin to crumble. Of course EU/Ireland will take a lot of flak and we will suffer, but the Moggs/BoJo/ERG/etc/etc need to shown to be wholly wrong & that they betrayed the people.

The dishonesty of the Brexiteers is disgusting & they need to be swept away.

Of course if hard brexit happens & after a little heartache everything goes OK, I'll be the first to hold up my hands & say I was wrong!

[Deleted User]

Scoondal wrote: »

Mrs May has repeatedly said " The UK will leave EU on 29 March". That is total rubbish. UK citizens voted to leave EU and the UK government set down 29 March as the date. I think it is disgusting to continue treating the UK electorate as if they are fools. UK will not leave EU on 29 March. Mrs May should start being honest with everyone and stop being a liar.

But there is a piece of law that states that they will leave on March 29th.

Until that piece of law is revoked then that date stands.

Right now that is the only legal thing out there, everything else is non binding

MPFGLB

Here is James O Brien today saying that Brexit will lead to a united Ireland

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obrien-believes-northern-ireland-will-leave/

blanch152

VinLieger wrote: »

I disagree i think an Irish sea border would lead to a longer wait for a UI than a full on hard brexit with a hard border.

I tend to agree.

Northern Ireland will suffer hardship after Brexit, no matter what.

If there is a border down the Irish Sea at the behest of the Irish government, then the Irish government will get the blame, and attitudes against unity will harden, not only among the unionist community, but also within the Catholic middle class community.

Conversely, if there is a hard border on the island, and Protestant farmers are suffering and blaming the London government, they will be more open to a united Ireland.

The key to whether Brexit boosts unity is who gets the blame for the resultant hardship in Northern Ireland.

First Up

blanch152 wrote:

Conversely, if there is a hard border on the island, and Protestant farmers are suffering and blaming the London government, they will be more open to a united Ireland.

I think you seriously underestimate the strength of anti-ROI sentiment in the unionist community. They will look to Britain/UK to look after them, not ROI or the EU.

I'm more than happy to let them at it.

badtoro

Lots of talk of a UI, seems not to make much mention whether citizens in the Republic would be in favour of it. I continue to think, once the economic argument got a good airing, people would flee from the idea.

Never mind the headbangers we'd inherit.

Sam Russell

badtoro wrote: »

Lots of talk of a UI, seems not to make much mention whether citizens in the Republic would be in favour of it. I continue to think, once the economic argument got a good airing, people would flee from the idea.

Never mind the headbangers we'd inherit.

It would depend on the deal on offer.

1. UK could continue subsidy.

2. NI should escape without the share of the huge UK National Debt

3. EU would likely chip a few bob of regional aid, and a few other funds.

4. Ireland could agree to some continuance of a NI assembly - at least for a transition - even a period of joint authority.

5. A transition for tax equalisation - with a NHS type continuance.

On balance, we voted 95% for the GFA, so I would expect it would carry hugely in Ireland. NI might be a bit more tricky - but the Unionists appear happy to accept a 52%/48% vote in some matters.

If the UK is basically neutral or even in favour of a UI, then that would help.

[Deleted User]

First Up wrote: »

I think you seriously underestimate the strength of anti-ROI sentiment in the unionist community. They will look to Britain/UK to look after them, not ROI or the EU.

I'm more than happy to let them at it.

Totally agree

It's a huge leap to suggest that unionists families going back centuries would embrace the idea of a united Ireland in a very short space of time over economic issues.

That's not to mention the growing numbers of people on both sides who see themselves as Northern Irish rather than Irish or British.

There is no guarantee that they would embrace being part of the ROI over what essential be a single issue, EU membership.

CelticRambler

VinLieger wrote: »

I disagree i think an Irish sea border would lead to a longer wait for a UI than a full on hard brexit with a hard border.

I'm talking about the establishment of an Irish Sea border after a chaotic Brexit, when NI has already begun to feel the effects of being at one with a post-Brexit UK.

If NI went straight from its current "Irish Sea lite" separation to "Irish Sea a-little-bit-less-lite" as part of the WA (i.e. the Dec 2017 proposal) then there'd be no reason to opt for re-unification as they'd be getting the best of all worlds.

But if the UK crashes out, a hard border is established, NI's economy goes through the floor with no help available in Westminster, then an Irish Sea border will go from being "tolerable" to "desireable". Not the best-of-all-worlds offer that's on the table now, but a keep-you-fed-and-alive agreement. Give it two years, with the RoI back on its feet and still no Brexit dividend in evidence for the UK, the pragmatic voters in NI will start asking "what's in it for us?" and seriously consider the advantages of Irish reunification. It'll probably be something completely unrelated, something that primarily affects the English (who will have again forgotten about NI) that tips the balance; something like the return of military service/conscription or the imposition of ID cards.

FrancieBrady

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Totally agree

It's a huge leap to suggest that unionists families going back centuries would embrace the idea of a united Ireland in a very short space of time over economic issues.

That's not to mention the growing numbers of people on both sides who see themselves as Northern Irish rather than Irish or British.

There is no guarantee that they would embrace being part of the ROI over what essential be a single issue, EU membership.

Land. Ulster farmers will not countenance losing that and Brexit could decimate farming stock. That is where the first major changes in attitude among unionists will come from. Next will be business and so on.

An Ciarraioch

We were talking about Ray Bassett earlier, so, of course, he'll be on Radio 4's Today programme tomorrow:

http://twitter.com/ray_basssett/status/1091039740760150017

Thargor

The demographics in the North are crushing the unionists Brexit or no Brexit, nationalists especially SF will be wary of swinging too soon and missing. There are more Protestant deaths from old age than there are Protestant births, its the reverse for Catholics, about 6000 more Catholics born every year than die of old age. Not that every Catholic is a nationalist seeking a UI of course but the majority will be, a UI is inevitable at this stage, Brexit will just help it along.

For Forks Sake

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would depend on the deal on offer.

1. UK could continue subsidy.

2. NI should escape without the share of the huge UK National Debt

3. EU would likely chip a few bob of regional aid, and a few other funds.

4. Ireland could agree to some continuance of a NI assembly - at least for a transition - even a period of joint authority.

5. A transition for tax equalisation - with a NHS type continuance.

On balance, we voted 95% for the GFA, so I would expect it would carry hugely in Ireland. NI might be a bit more tricky - but the Unionists appear happy to accept a 52%/48% vote in some matters.

If the UK is basically neutral or even in favour of a UI, then that would help.

I think (depending on timing) that a reunification vote could be rejected heavily in the RoI, there are a lot of concerns and leaps of faith that a lot of people may not be willing to take on board.

Irish Praetorian

Thargor wrote: »

The demographics in the North are crushing the unionists Brexit or no Brexit, nationalists especially SF will be wary of swinging too soon and missing. There are more Protestant deaths from old age than there are Protestant births, its the reverse for Catholics, about 6000 more Catholics born every year than die of old age. Not that every Catholic is a nationalist seeking a UI of course but the majority will be, a UI is inevitable at this stage, Brexit will just help it along.

Yeah I'm not so sure; because when you say 'not every Catholic is a nationalist seeking a UI' I think you might be burying the lead a little. As much as half the Catholic population has no interest in a UI and whilst I could certainly see that being ginned up in a referendum (like in Scotland) the idea of it being sufficiently large to overcome the Protestant majority for the foreseeable future is, in my view, quite remote.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Land. Ulster farmers will not countenance losing that and Brexit could decimate farming stock. That is where the first major changes in attitude among unionists will come from. Next will be business and so on.

Northern Ireland farm incomes down 23% since last year

Donegal milk ends up on the shelves of retailers such as Lidl and Aldi. But is processed in the North. Setting up a second factory in the south would increase costs and so farmers on both sides of the border would be squeezed again.

Thargor

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Yeah I'm not so sure; because when you say 'not every Catholic is a nationalist seeking a UI' I think you might be burying the lead a little. As much as half the Catholic population has no interest in a UI and whilst I could certainly see that being ginned up in a referendum (like in Scotland) the idea of it being sufficiently large to overcome the Protestant majority for the foreseeable future is, in my view, quite remote.

The Protestant majority you mention is down to 3%, at the next census it will likely become the Protestant minority, actually seeing as census data is from 2011 its probably more accurate to say Protestants are the minority right now, and a shrinking minority, versus a growing Catholic majority, its a perfectly foreseeable future, practically inevitable now. When it comes time to vote in a border poll theres no way ~50% of the Catholic population will sit on their hands whill ~100% of the Protestant vote casts a ballot (got a source for that 50% not interested in UI btw?).