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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Tell me how

downcow wrote: »

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

Are you for real?

From what I can see, 208 of your 224 posts have been on the Brexit thread and you have done so without knowing what Theresa May's Red Lines are?

You are the online personification of the pontificating Brexiteer who does not understand what it is they are talking about.

Donald Trump

downcow wrote: »

So what is it about? Is it about travel being hampered? Because that is certainly not the line that is being spun. The line is about peace/gfa/etc.
If it is honestly about the flow of goods then why don’t Eu UK and roi sit down and talk about that?

You have to be taking the piss at this stage to be honest. Nobody could be that unable to put simple facts together.

How many people do you think commute to work across the NI border every day? Across those hundreds of crossing points. How many go across to shop or how many tankers of milk drive across?

You will need to put up hundreds of physical checking points where they aren't wanted. Where they will inconvenience hundreds and thousands of people. It will create physical targets for people. It will create opportunities for smugglers and criminals.

The NI Unionist devotion to the UK is like a battered wife trying to convince herself that her husband does it to her because he really loves her. It's sad to observe from the outside.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

As suspected. You don't know what you are talking about. Similar to the DUP when this began, you have taken up a position solely because it is counter to the Irish position. And you did absolutely no thinking beyond that.
You can see, I hope, were that has gotten you, into a massively blocked cul de sac.

Folkstonian

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Erm the EU and UK did sit down together and came up with a viable solution that was acceptable to May, Rabb and many others.

I don’t think that is quite right.

Raab quit as Brexit sec because he felt he was being sidelined by Theresa May and Olly Robbins And was completely unhappy with the withdrawal agreement, no?

Davis resigned probably because he just couldn’t be bothered

Infini

downcow wrote: »

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

5a394c31160000783ecf2154.jpeg?ops=scalefit_630_noupscale

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that my community feel NI is completely part on UK and when we pass through Dundalk heading north we are heading back home. I guess it’s how you feel when you arrive back in Dublin from England.
So increasing divergence from Uk will make me feel exactly how you would feel with checks at the border.
Do you get this or is it over your head? I am really interested.

Let me be honest with you: Feeling's are irrelevant its hard facts that are important. Your positioning yourself that Brexit is a good thing when everything points to it wrecking your country you feel you belong to. It is being perpetrated by those who are either willfully ignorant, utterly incompetent, dangerously deluded and even having malicious intent in intentionally causing a no deal to profit on the collapse and misery of the UK. Nothing is more important regardless of how many people it will bankrupt, lives it will wreck or regardless of the damage it will do.

The whole United Ireland issue for example was a NON runner because the way the GFA was implimented it made "identity" a non issue by making the problems surround it irrelevant. By FORCING people to choose it reactivated this whole issue. Not only that it was pushed by a party who has no interest in your own wellbeing its ideology before the common good. They DO. NOT. CARE. how much damage it causes, how many buisnesses it will wreck, how many people wont be able to buy their groceries and how many farmers have their buisnesses messed up by this. If you find yourself short on food, local supermarket empty and your live far harder these peoples idea of solving it is to send you "to the chippy". Seriously remember "let them eat cake"? That sure worked out the last time someone made a statement of that sheer stupidity and heads certainly rolled that time!

Lets also be clear that this kind of reckless policymaking by the DUP is utterly self defeating for unionism because the minute you undermine the economy of NI and have people out of work, broke and short on supplies it starts focusing more saner minds and reasonable voices on wether this "union" is still worth it. Why are the shinners so quiet for example? A Hard Brexit does more to advocate for a United Ireland than 30 years of the troubles and is FAR more potent and damaging in scope and scale and this is the kicker: It's all down to the incompetence of the British Government. In a few year's you could easily find yourself as part of "THIS" country because a majority of people decided up there when given the option that they had enough of this utterly incompetent shítshow of failures, fúck ups and self defeating misery caused by a broken British parlimentary system and may vote to take the one OUT that actually will benefit them in every way in the long run. All thanks to the DUP and May because the people on our side didn't want this the British Goverment did.

Let me be clear in some regards I have to laugh at the UK for being so utterly dense but at the same time I feel a sense of disgust at "how can people be so utterly stupid and incompetent?" Seriously a woman votes for Brexit, this risk's her bushiness going under because of this but still thinks its a good thing? That show's an incredible amount of disconnect from reality and these will be the same people asking what happened after every warning was given to avoid this.

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

I just don't know what to say to this.

Anthracite

downcow wrote: »

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

You're debating Brexit with a pretty well-informed group of people, shouting the odds and accusing anyone who disagrees with you of having an agenda, and you don't know this first and most fundamental thing that created the whole situation?

Seriously?

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

So what is it about? Is it about travel being hampered? Because that is certainly not the line that is being spun. The line is about peace/gfa/etc.
If it is honestly about the flow of goods then why don’t Eu UK and roi sit down and talk about that?

Erm the EU and UK did sit down together and came up with a viable solution that was acceptable to May, Rabb and many others.

downcow

Hurrache wrote: »

Tell us how? Because a vast amount of people haven't been able to square that circle over the last few years with May's red lines.

This may be a very nieve question but what are these red lines of Mays?

Lemming

I don't think anyone has linked this yet; from yesterday (only spotted it today) on the BBC website: US firms seek changes to UK standards on beef and drugs. Whislt the whole article smacks of "and so it begins", these bits in particular (bold emphasis is mine) stood out for me as a case of 'with friends like these ... '

On farming:

BBC article wrote:

The farming groups say any deal should move away from EU standards, including rules governing genetically modified crops, antibiotics in meats, and pesticides and herbicides, such as glyphosate.

Glyphosate .... also commonly known as 'Roundup' weed killer; do a google on it as I don't want to drag this discussion off-topic. Keywords: Monsanto, knowingly, cancer, US court ruling.

On tech:

US firms also want to bar a proposed UK tax on digital services and prohibit rules requiring that data be stored locally.

There is also widespread support to push the UK raise the amount that triggers customs duties from £135 closer to the US level of $800 - more than £600.

Such a move would make it easier for small businesses to export to the UK, said companies including e-commerce site Etsy.

The question of data storage is very important when it comes to cloud-storage, along with your rights to control your data, which jurisdiction it is governed by and your data privacy rights.
And less cash for UK customs at the benefit of US businesses; I sincerely doubt the US will reciprocate on that. On the face of it that looks like a benefit for the small people ordering stuff from the US, but not really as there'll be an inevitable squeeze on government funding somewhere, which usually translates to higher taxes and reduced services.

On health:

It heavily criticised the current NHS drug approval system, pointing to the cap on the price of drugs as too restrictive, and highlighting insufficient healthcare budgets and "rigid" national processes.

The organisation, as well as some other groups, are also hoping to secure patent protections for certain types of drugs for at least 12 years, among other demands.

Effectively wanting to export the worst excesses of the US healthcare industry.

Nody

downcow wrote: »

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

How many times do we need to point out that it is ILLEGAL under WTO terms to not have any border controls for a third party country (that would be UK or Ireland respectively) to not have controls that apply to other countries? Let me repeat this for the 1000th time; WTO Most Favorable Nation REQUIRES all WTO countries to be treated the same when it comes to controls at the border for import & export.

No controls at NI/Ireland border? No controls allowed for ANY other border either. Can you now understand this basic fundamental fact of trade in the world or do we need to repeat this circus again as you ignore the facts being pointed out to you that you don't want to deal with?

Calina

downcow wrote: »

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

The goodwill is May dropping her redlines and staying in the single market and the customs union.

The backstop was a UK invention accepted to accommodate the UK.

These people as you call them were screwed over by the DUP rejecting best of both worlds because they lack confidence and faith in their own ideology.

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

They are hardly being used if they agree with the notion. And most polls show that they do. A hard brexit would have 60% of the population supporting a UI, so that's serious enough. Is that what you want?

Hurrache

downcow wrote: »

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

Tell us how? Because a vast amount of people haven't been able to square that circle over the last few years with May's red lines.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

How on earth does goodwill resolve the border issues?

downcow

Donald Trump wrote: »

Anybody should be able to grasp the simple distinction between the logistics of monitoring flow of goods and people through a handful of ports and airports vs hundreds of road crossing points along the border.

So what is it about? Is it about travel being hampered? Because that is certainly not the line that is being spun. The line is about peace/gfa/etc.
If it is honestly about the flow of goods then why don’t Eu UK and roi sit down and talk about that?

Midlife

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that my community feel NI is completely part on UK and when we pass through Dundalk heading north we are heading back home. I guess it’s how you feel when you arrive back in Dublin from England.
So increasing divergence from Uk will make me feel exactly how you would feel with checks at the border.
Do you get this or is it over your head? I am really interested.

I get you on this Downcow but I want to know what the solution is?

Britian don't want to remain in the customs union, they don't want a backstop, they don't want a hard border.

What exactly do they want?

Edit: This isn't some smart rhetorical question. I really don't know.

downcow

prawnsambo wrote: »

The parts of the GFA that require an open border aren't for us. They are for the people in the border counties who are most affected. Some of whom even have houses or farms that straddle the border. Do you not get that?

My argument is that these people are getting seriously used by Eu and roi as a bargaining chip.
I live 20 miles from border so have some sense of the issues. This could all be sorted with no borders with a bit of good will. But I’m confident that will come in a few weeks.

First Up

downcow wrote:

A permanent backstop ensures NI rules are made by Eu which we will have zero power over and will diverge from UK.

Well there is a thing called negotiation but as UK law is currently aligned to the EU (which is what enables half of its trade to be seamless) it is pretty far fetched that the EU will introduce anything radically different. Granted it limits the UK's scope to lower technical or food standards but most of those are needed for trade anyway for commercial reasons.

In any case nobody wants or is threatening a permanent backstop. But putting a time limit on it misses the point.

But why such insecurity to equate negotiated international agreements with a loss of sovereignty?

prawnsambo

eagle eye wrote: »

The Backstop was a major advantage for the EU in negotiating because it meant they had the UK under the thumb.

You just throw stuff up here and rant, but don't engage with anyone who responds. I don't agree with your premise of the EU using the backstop as a method of keeping the UK under the thumb because it was a UK negotiated position in the first place.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

. They care more about Europe than the Republic of Ireland imo.

I hate to point this out, but Ireland is Europe - we are advising the other 26 on the backstop and have lobbied for a measure such as it.

Donald Trump

eagle eye wrote: »

The Backstop was a major advantage for the EU in negotiating because it meant they had the UK under the thumb.

I don't see anybody saying that but it's the truth.

You are forgetting that the backstop was originally only supposed to apply to NI.

Problem is that TM called her election which put her under the thumb of the DUP and hence UK insisted it apply to UK as a whole.

That is why the problem exists. If it applied to only NI then the rest of UK would be free to do what it wanted unimpeded and NI would have the best of both worlds.

Anthracite

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that my community feel NI is completely part on UK and when we pass through Dundalk heading north we are seeing back home. I guess it’s how you feel when you arrive back in Dublin from England.
So increasing divergence from FB will make me feel exactly how you would feel with checks at the border.
Do you get this or is it over your head? I am really interested.

You also understand that your community is only one of two communities that live on the northern end of our island?

Frank Bullitt

Another infuriating watch, ill pick one line from this which is when Anna Maria Corazza Bilot mentions the GFA, Gerard Batten calls it an "irrelevancy".

They do not care about peace in NI, at all.

Worth having a look at the comments under it as well.

Donald Trump

downcow wrote: »

That is just nonsense to suit your agenda. Are you saying you would be happy with checks on the carlingford ferry?

Anybody should be able to grasp the simple distinction between the logistics of monitoring flow of goods and people through a handful of ports and airports vs hundreds of road crossing points along the border.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What?

Seriously, do you know what you are talking about here?

Why not answer it if you think I don’t know what I’m talking about

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

Do you not understand that my community feel NI is completely part on UK and when we pass through Dundalk heading north we are seeing back home. I guess it’s how you feel when you arrive back in Dublin from England.
So increasing divergence from FB will make me feel exactly how you would feel with checks at the border.
Do you get this or is it over your head? I am really interested.

The parts of the GFA that require an open border aren't for us. They are for the people in the border counties who are most affected. Some of whom even have houses or farms that straddle the border. Do you not get that?

eagle eye

The Backstop was a major advantage for the EU in negotiating because it meant they had the UK under the thumb.

I don't see anybody saying that but it's the truth.
I don't care about all this stuff anyways. My only concern is the Republic of Ireland first and foremost and the Island of Ireland. Neither side seem to give a hoot about us. As I said earlier the EU have a responsibility to protect us as citizens and need to get a deal done whatever it takes.

I'm not fan of a lot of the idiots in the UK including Corbyn who is an incredibly thick and in many ways stupid man. Boris Johnson is another idiot who had great sway in the UK and his switch was the key factor in the successful Brexit campaign I think. Teresa May was handed a bunch of dynamite and took out a match and lit them. The less said about Gove the better and Farage doesn't even deserve a mention.

Those people can be hated by lots of people but that isn't going to fix anything. Clearly they are not capable of running a government, none of them. The backstop has only become an issue for them over the last couple of weeks. I mean how could you not know that this was hampering your attempts at a good deal?
As stupid as all these people are in many ways most of them are powerful in the UK right now. The EU need to get something sorted for us. I want to hear promises from them about our safety. I want to hear promises that we are not heading for another period of austerity measures.

People talk about a hard border leading to more jobs in this country but those jobs aren't going to help rural Ireland and the many jobs for the ordinary man which will be lost.
There is already enough of a gap between Dublin and rural Ireland and making it worse isn't going to help things. All that is going to happen is that more and more independent td's will be elected and make it impossible for a government to run the country.

Anyways my main gripe is that we are not being looked after. I don't trust Leo Varadkar or Fine Gael when it comes to Europe because I feel they bow down and accept whatever the EPP recommends. They care more about Europe than the Republic of Ireland imo.

downcow

prawnsambo wrote: »

So if you looked up sovereignty in a book, you'd know that having your own people check your goods for compliance to standards isn't in any way a dilution of it. If that were the case, you wouldn't be able to enter any trade deals whatsoever.

So if northern nationalists feel Irish then they should know that having their own people check their goods at Newry should feel really nice as well. Serious double standards over and over again on this thread.

downcow

Tell me how wrote: »

Because at Newry the checking facilities would symbolise to some an unacceptable division of the island of Ireland represented and enforced with a physical structure.

Do you not understand that my community feel NI is completely part on UK and when we pass through Dundalk heading north we are heading back home. I guess it’s how you feel when you arrive back in Dublin from England.
So increasing divergence from Uk will make me feel exactly how you would feel with checks at the border.
Do you get this or is it over your head? I am really interested.