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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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unit 1

I was just wondering today about something.

If the uk unilaterally leave the eu (hard brexit) then people seem to be of the opinion that they would be breaking the gfa.
It has been said on here that the gfa is a binding international agreement.

If this is the case then who will arbitrate on this issue, ie breaking an international treaty, and what are the ramifications for the uk in this matter.

Is it pie in the sky that things could deteriorate so badly that economic sanctions could come into play, and if not, then why not. If the uk can tear up the gfa nilly willy then how can they be trusted about anything.

Tell me how

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

I find this utterly fascinating and think it relates very much to the existential crises that Fintan O'Toole talks about which exists within the British psyche.

If I win the euromillions* on Friday night I will spend time studying this.

* Reminder - buy euromillions ticket

First Up

briany wrote:

Unfortunately, I don't think anyone in the UK government has any idea what the alternative would be in real workable terms.

The thing is that every alternative was examined in depth during the Brexit negotiations. Regulatory alignment, Norway model, how the EU's other borders work, customs union, technology, Irish Sea checks, UK "red lines", Single Market integrity, "virtual" checks at EU ports, UK bilateral trade deals and on and on. More than two years of it, with everything tested, modelled and cross-checked with WTO, GATT and more - and by people who knew what they were doing. The backstop was the ONLY solution that both the UK and EU could work with, and on the unanimous understanding that it was a last resort until a better outcome was reached.

So for the UK to now say that the solution that THEY proposed as the way forward is no longer acceptable is beyond ridiculous and the EU will have none of it. This is no more than an unseemly squabble within UK politics and it will not be allowed to dictate to the rest of us.

The UK government signed up to it and they will deliver on it or suffer the consequences. May is hearing that in interviews, phone conversations and if she goes to Brussels she will hear it again over tea and biscuits.

She won't hear anything else.

fash

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

Personally I'm easy going on it: either an utter social, economic and political collapse and disintegration of the UK (and after 3 years of this who can't think that is a deserved thing) or a humiliating, and politically and diplomatically debilitating climb down. The season finale of the UK is going to be epic...

Strazdas

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

You'll struggle to find any discussion forum in Europe where people are talking up the "positives" of Brexit.

The Brexiteers are well and truly on their own : nobody likes them or think they are doing the right thing (they are the political equivalent of Millwall fans).

oscarBravo

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

Are you an EU fan who wants Brexit cancelled?

Are you posting on this thread?

Have you answered your own question?

It's not a surprise that most people here are opposed to Brexit. Most people here can see that it's an objectively insane act of self-harm.

Hurrache

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

Madness isn't it.
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090694295978414087?s=19

Tell me how

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

You're wrong.

prawnsambo

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

Oh I don't know about that. I think the UK crashing out of the EU would be great craic. I'd be very disappointed if you don't get the brexit you deserve.

Hurrache

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

Two years and that's the best you can do?

Capt'n Midnight

First Up wrote: »

More ships can be chartered if demand is there.

Just ask Seaborne Freight, I'm not sure if they are on the level but they're on the up and up.

Phase 1 : Register Ferry Company

Phase 2 : ?

Phase 3 : £27m Profit

j8wk2feszrnpao

eggman100 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the name of this thread be,
The Anti - Brexit Discussion Thread?
Created for EU fans who want brexit cancelled?

You're wrong.
People are pointing out the ridiculous nature of Brexit. Voting to leave, up to them; but at least accept the consequences and the reality of leaving. If it was such a benefit for the UK to leave, then others would be clambering to do the same.

Shelga

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So she voted to leave and in the event of a hard brexit there could be delays that would put her out of business yet she has no regrets about it ? As you say leave them off if they want to go over the cliff.

Yeah, it's the doubling down on the lunacy that I really don't understand. What is so bad about saying- "this seemed like a good/reasonable idea in 2016, but I have since realised the complexity and difficulty of it, and don't think it's in the best interests of the country anymore."

It's frightening how few people think this way.

I voted Remain but have learned a hell of a lot more about the EU in the 2.5 years since, like everyone else.

[Deleted User]

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

Because they thought, and still think they could have it all.

They thought they could have all the benefits of membership with none of the cost or the rules.

They were sold that by Leave and they still think it because she thinks that she is more important to that producer than that producer is to her, and that at the last minute the EU will realise that and give the UK what they want.

And she's in for a shock.

Itssoeasy

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

So she voted to leave and in the event of a hard brexit there could be delays that would put her out of business yet she has no regrets about it ? As you say leave them off if they want to go over the cliff.

Harry Palmr

More money leaving the City of London and some new jobs here.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/30/barclays-to-move-170bn-to-dublin-over-no-deal-brexit-fears

Barclays is to move €190bn (£166bn) worth of assets from the UK to Ireland as the bank readies itself for a possible no-deal Brexit.

The high court on Wednesday approved the lender’s Brexit contingency plans that include transferring the assets linked to about 5,000 of its clients to a Dublin-based unit.

“Barclays will use our existing licensed EU-based bank subsidiary to continue to serve our clients within the EU beyond 29 March 2019 regardless of the outcome of Brexit,” the bank said. “Our preparations are well advanced and we expect to be fully operational by 29 March 2019.”

Barclays will boost its Dublin headcount by about 150 to 300 as a result of the EU divorce.

boggerman1

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

People like these deserve everything they reap.if people think the likes of Sunderland are sh*tholes now wait till a few yrs after independence day

Igotadose

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/WyndhamWallace/status/1090688723371679744

The level of ignorance and stupidity continues to impress, and frighten.

If this Lord Digby Jones (hmm.... elites are bad, coming from a Lord?) is on the board of a company I was invested in, I would divest ASAP. What a slimeball! Liam Fox was right? Liam Fox has *yet* to be right about anything trade related.

prawnsambo

And not just for jmayo, but anyone else interested, here is a short video of both the MV Celine and MV Delphine in Dublin port. These are the world's largest short-sea Ro-Ro vessels. And they are absolutely huge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN0z4DP90I4

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

Unbelievable.

Professor Moriarty

Another straw in the wind. Barclays Bank moving 199 billion worth of assets to Dublin immediately which will cement the creation of 200 extra jobs.

Shelga

Turned on to Sky News in the middle of a woman in Sunderland saying she runs her own business and imports a niche, short-shelf-life product from Holland, and if there are delays at the ports for even 48 hours in the case of a no deal Brexit, she will be out of business.

Presenter then says- “But you voted leave?”- her response was “yes, and I have absolutely no regrets about that.”

These people are done for.

Capt'n Midnight

Varik wrote: »

The direct sea route will take far longer.

Dublin to Zeebrugge is 11 hours, without travelling through the UK that's goes up to 40 hours. Antwerp & Rotterdam are worse. For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it. Even Calais isn't' that much closer than Zeebrugge.

The sea route is at best adding 20 hours to get to France.

It's not 40 hours.

The UK was a founding member of TIR. So no customs checks on through traffic.
Today trucks from Switzerland go through customs on arrival in the UK , but don't have to in the other EU countries they pass through.

Besides with the exception of time critical stuff it more important to know when stuff will arrive than how fast it travels. In the maritime world there is a concept of slow steaming to reduce transport costs.

First Up

jmayo wrote:

Have you ever been in Roscoff?

Yes, and the Cork ferry (and another later this year) docks and unloads trucks there every week. I've also been to Cherbourg which receives about six ferries a week from Dublin and Rosslare.

jmayo wrote:

Ehh how long do you reckon will these developments take, to the nearest decade please as this is Ireland ?

What developments? We have three (soon four) ferries already operating to France and one to Spain from Dublin, Rosslare and Cork.

jmayo wrote:

Do you remember what happened last year when Irish Ferries tried to add new ferry to their France route?

It was delayed in production. Its here now.

jmayo wrote:

Will we have to wait for ships to be built or can they be sourced from somewhere?

More ships can be chartered if demand is there.

WomanSkirtFan8

Thargor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomasBXL/status/1090646002137206785

Nicely done mairead.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/WyndhamWallace/status/1090688723371679744

The level of ignorance and stupidity continues to impress, and frighten.

Mr.Nice Guy

Brendan Boyle, the US Congressman who was expressing concern about a hard border yesterday, has been speaking on Channel 4, and when Boris Johnson's comments about the border issue being a 'gnat' are put to him he says it's insulting.

Good to see him taking a genuine interest. Hopefully more will do likewise.

prawnsambo

jmayo wrote: »

Our distribution network will have to be totally changed so instead of talking to Bob in Bolton would you rather deal with Michel in Lille ?
Also a lot of our retail and indeed distribution players are UK owned and are sitting at the end of UK supply chains.
Tesco, M&S, Currys, B&Q are retailers that automatically spring to mind.
Even online retailers like Amazon.co.uk, Screwfix offering cheaper products are UK based and distribute out of there to here.

Some of those aren't. Screwfix for example is way more expensive than most retailers or specialists here (as I found out when I recently bought a heating circulation pump - Screwfix were over 25% more).

The UK distributors are either setting up here or elsewhere in the EU and avoiding issues that way. Or the manufacturers are dropping them off the Ireland pipeline and giving it to Irish distributors. Tesco and M&S etc. are screwed. The likes of Dunnes, Musgraves, Aldi and Lidl have already dropped UK supply lines. A lot of contracts that would have been renewed in January, haven't. I know all this because I asked them.

jmayo wrote: »

Do the carriers have the ferries or ships or do you envisage diverting ships from UK routes ?
Forgive me for being skeptical about plans from bureaucratic mega structures and from an entity that shafted us in the not too distant past. :rolleyes:

Look up the MV Celine and its sister ship. Both tasked to Ireland and were never on the UK routes because (a) the Celine is new and (b) believe it or not, no UK port is deep enough for them.

branie2

According to a Sky News poll, 60% of respondents think that people who want an extension to article 50 want to stop Brexit

road_high

Gintonious wrote: »

That line at the end, absolute beauty!

This is a perfect example of how the EU are having to deal with the Brits (generalization I know), they are the loud and disruptive kids in the classroom who used to think they were the centre of the world.

They’ll be gone in a few months. Then they can shout and belittle eachother in their own country.