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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

From the interviews I've seen with no-deal supporting members of the public, it seems to be very much a case of "what did the Romans EU ever do for us?" In their eyes, life in Britain is as good as it is (apart from those pesky foreigners taking the jobs that no self-respecting Brit would get out of bed for) because it's Britain, 5th largest economy in the world, winner of two world wars and motherland of the world's most spoken language.

That EU membership may have contributed significantly to Britain's position in the modern world, and that that world has changed considerably in the 40 years since passes them by.

FrancieBrady

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

They are on a diet of information disseminated by people like this, so pervasive is this stuff that you even get some Irish people swallowing it and spreading it.

https://twitter.com/DVATW/status/1089975727548780547

Christy42

AtomicHorror wrote: »

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

Weird poll, gives the impression that 40% of everyone wants a crash-out. I wonder what would happen to those numbers if revoking article 50 was an option?

Can't imagine the remain camp would be taking votes from crash out Brexit.

It shows how the discourse has been over there. The EU and Ireland seems to have just been painted as a panto villain by a large proportion of the media there.

Water John

Are we looking at the last of the empire with the Home Countries falling apart?

Imreoir2

nice_guy80 wrote: »

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

I think to make the metaphor work, the Brexiteers see the WA as the useless bit of paper and following from the vote in the commons want May to set aside her Chamberlin like misadventures in Europe and play the role of Churchill batteling the evil Hun on the beaches.

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the EU and all the odious apparatus of Comission rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on fish in the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength on the airwaves, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the backstop, we shall fight on the financial settlement, we shall fight on the customs union and on the single market, we shall fight above all amongst ourselves; we shall never surrender.

Quin_Dub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think it's easy to forget that not everyone is as politically engaged as the posters here.

A lot of people drift around clueless and and others simply look at news as another form of entertainment.

This is a very important point.

Everyone posting here regardless of viewpoint, is orders of magnitude more politically aware & engaged than the average person.

The average person hears the odd news bulletin on the radio during their commute or maybe watches the main evening news a few times a week.

They simply don't have the details readily available to connect the various elements together into a full picture.

Most people treat politics the way I treat soccer (no offence to the multitude of Soccer fans

).

I'm aware of it , probably know who's currently winning the league , can name a few key players and some detail on a few high profile stories.

But , my knowledge ability to hold a conversation on the subject (or truly understand it) is fully exhausted after about 5 minutes..

Sadly that is the political reality..

Professor Moriarty

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

There was a poll on Sky recently - on phone can't access - where approx 25% of people who stated they were for No Deal thought it meant remaining in the EU.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are on a diet of information disseminated by people like this, so pervasive is this stuff that you even get some Irish people swallowing it and spreading it.

Vance has been trolling and winding people up all week.

Verhostadt said this at the meeting today. I thought it may have been an off the cuff remark but obviously not when his account tweets it hours later.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090652915600117760?s=19

And a dig at the party before country that's happening there
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090653199193833478?s=19

igCorcaigh

road_high wrote: »

I think a lot of them think it means life stays as is but no foreigners

LOL yeah!

EdgeCase

Varik wrote: »

EU has excluded France from the redone North Sea-Mediterranean route

Well the French government already said it was working with us on solutions for those routes.

10000maniacs

mrbrianj wrote: »

A lot of people are rightly saying that we (Irl not EU) need a deal as much if not more than the UK. 55k jobs lost and growth savaged on a no deal brexit, but on the flip side what damage do we get from allowing our single market/customs union economy to be swamped by zero tariff zero regulated goods that will flood in through the open border?

It looks like we get hammered either way, but if we do regulate the border we keep open access to the whole EU market.

BTW, a controlled border on our side will only stop and check freight etc. heading south, UK have repeatedly stated that they wont impose border controls, so that will be ok for our goods heading north! (Tory logic)

That 55,000 jobs thing is project fear in reverse. Why can't sellers and growers change their business models to suit a Brexit outcome? Currently we import 50% of our milk, most of our potatoes and root crops. Why can't we produce 100% of these items? It is Ireland after all.

ancapailldorcha

igCorcaigh wrote: »

LOL yeah!

No more of this please.

briany

Water John wrote: »

Are we looking at the last of the empire with the Home Countries falling apart?

The way things are going, you start to kind of wonder if England will remain one country, never mind the UK staying together. There is extreme political division in the UK right now, so that's one crisis they have to deal with. On top of that, you have the crisis that may come with suddenly being outside the EU. Furthermore, you have the SNP ready to agitate for another indy ref. That's crisis 3. You have potential violence at the Irish border and the Peace Process folding like a house of cards - crisis 4. You have the potential for violence on the streets of Britain if Brexit goes particularly badly and the worst of the predictions comes true - empty shelves at the supermarket, tailbacks of lorrys etc. Crisis number 5.

And it would be karma for the UK to lose Scotland and NI. Neither of those regions voted for it. What a show of arrogance to disregard those countries' views. It's hilarious how Brexiteers call the EU 'undemocratic' when the EU at least gives member countries a veto on big decisions, regardless of the country's size, whereas the UK just tells member countries (besides England) to f off.

Christy42

Hurrache wrote: »

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are on a diet of information disseminated by people like this, so pervasive is this stuff that you even get some Irish people swallowing it and spreading it.

Vance has been trolling and winding people up all week.

Verhostadt said this at the meeting today. I thought it may have been an off the cuff remark but obviously not when his account tweets it hours later.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090652915600117760?s=19

And a dig at the party before country that's happening there
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090653199193833478?s=19

I think the first one is a very good point that tends to get forgotten in the media (at least in the UK). There has been a lot of back clapping over finally passing something relating to Brexit but it is not binding and has a big hole with to be filled scribbled in.

Even if the EU negotiated about the backstop then new details would emerge. Some would be opposed to the details of whatever the "alternate backstop" is and the deal would have to go back for a vote in Parliament which it would then lose.

Borderhopper

SNIP. Cut out the one-liners please.

joe40

Leroy42 wrote: »

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I read an article in the British press saying just that. The writer was saying in any other walk of life, say "buying a car" if the deal falls through ie no deal you go back to where you were, no change. The language of "no deal" is incorrect as it implys no change, you just walk away.
In this case nothing could be further from the truth.
Plenty of ordinary British people have a good knowledge of the situation, but others are just getting jingoistic soundbites. Just look at the tabloid headlines this morning for examples of this.

Christy42

joe40 wrote: »

Leroy42 wrote: »

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I read an article in the British press saying just that. The writer was saying in any other walk of life, say "buying a car" if the deal falls through ie no deal you go back to where you were, no change. The language of "no deal" is incorrect as it implys no change, you just walk away.
In this case nothing could be further from the truth.
Plenty of ordinary British people have a good knowledge of the situation, but others are just getting jingoistic soundbites. Just look at the tabloid headlines this morning for examples of this.

The issue is it is literally going for no deal. People just don't realise how much is built up on the current deal. I think that is why many think the EU is punishing them instead of seeing it as a natural consequence of the vote.

To steal your example it is like agreeing to have a loan of a car for a few months and then deciding you now want no deal before being shocked that you can't drive around any more.

lawred2

joe40 wrote: »

I read an article in the British press saying just that. The writer was saying in any other walk of life, say "buying a car" if the deal falls through ie no deal you go back to where you were, no change. The language of "no deal" is incorrect as it implys no change, you just walk away.
In this case nothing could be further from the truth.
Plenty of ordinary British people have a good knowledge of the situation, but others are just getting jingoistic soundbites. Just look at the tabloid headlines this morning for examples of this.

Should just be called crashing out

Leroy42

All the interviews let the Brexiteers talk about withholding the 39bn as the card they have to play, without anyone calling them out on it.

Like "Are you really suggesting that the UK whelch on an international financial obligation and surely that will place us in the same terms of Argentina etc defaulting on WB loans? Why would anybody deal with us anymore and wouldn't that scare the markets in terms of government bonds etc?"

That is even before you mention that 39bn, in terms of the overall EU budget and GDP, particularly since it is spread out until 2060 is not going to really make much difference.

But time and again they come on tv/radio shows holding this threat out as the trump card. "Let them go without" is the mantra.

For Forks Sake

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

Sky had a poll last week where 27% of people thought that No Deal meant remaining in the EU and carrying on as before.....:rolleyes:

volchitsa

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Sky had a poll last week where 27% of people thought that No Deal meant remaining in the EU and carrying on as before.....:rolleyes:

If that is true, then really I despair.

Itssoeasy

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Sky had a poll last week where 27% of people thought that No Deal meant remaining in the EU and carrying on as before.....:rolleyes:

And there is a poll representing the utter lack of understanding that at least 27% of the people in that poll have about brexit and the whole process around it.

Mr.Nice Guy

Watching the BBC's News at Six you'd be forgiven for thinking that it was the EU that were the problem.

Katya Adler: "The EU are effectively stonewalling Mrs May..."

Emma Vardy: "The UK now seeks a lifeline from Brussels it says will keep everything afloat..." (The agreement they rejected was the lifeline)

And then there's Laura Kuenssberg trotting out the familiar theme, "They say they [the EU] won't renegotiate but they usually do deals at the 11th hour..."

ARNOLD J RIMMER

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1090680685231333376?s=20

jmayo

EdgeCase wrote: »

A lot of it can be handled by simply moving ships into Irish service. There's already at least one Brexit buster ferry in place which can handle 14km of trucks at a time.

Logistically speaking, the Irish market is not THAT big or complicated to service. If there's a demand for shipping on Irish-continental routes, there'll be capacity brought on stream by moving ships from elsewhere.

Bear in mind that due to potential chaos at ports in the UK, there'll be less goods moving through which may result in excess ferry capacity moving from there to routes between here and France / Belgium.

Our distribution network will have to be totally changed so instead of talking to Bob in Bolton would you rather deal with Michel in Lille ?
Also a lot of our retail and indeed distribution players are UK owned and are sitting at the end of UK supply chains.
Tesco, M&S, Currys, B&Q are retailers that automatically spring to mind.
Even online retailers like Amazon.co.uk, Screwfix offering cheaper products are UK based and distribute out of there to here.

Your post reads like "shure it will be alright on the night".

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Sailings could be increased if needed as well as alternatives which I cannot speak about. I think you will find the EU is right behind Ireland on this one and unlike the UK who have given contracts to a ferry company with no boats the EU are bring very realistic and have plans in place.

Heard today from a German cop that Ireland have been offered EU officers to patrol the border if needs be.

Do the carriers have the ferries or ships or do you envisage diverting ships from UK routes ?
Forgive me for being skeptical about plans from bureaucratic mega structures and from an entity that shafted us in the not too distant past. :rolleyes:

EdgeCase wrote: »

Cork to Roscoff takes 14 hours using a conventional non-fast ferry, the Brittany Ferry's flagship MV Port Aven.

The Dublin to Antwerp / Rotterdam routes could be useful for non-time-sensitive freight that transits the UK at present, but you could also have extended ferries on South coast of Ireland to Brittany routes for food that's under time pressure for spoilage.

At present because of the land bridge, the development of Cork or Rosslare to France freight focused ferries hasn't been commercially viable and the focus has been on tourism, but the potential is there and the ability to move ferries to those routes is also there.

Have you ever been in Roscoff?

Ehh how long do you reckon will these developments take, to the nearest decade please as this is Ireland ?

Do you remember what happened last year when Irish Ferries tried to add new ferry to their France route?

Will we have to wait for ships to be built or can they be sourced from somewhere?

BTW thinking of transport implications with hard Brexit.
I know UK signed deals with US and Canada regarding open skies, and with such big hitters as Israel, Morocco, Albania but what is status with regards UK EU air travel if hard Brexit ?

Also I know some countries are putting in place measures to allow UK expats have residency rights post a no deal Brexit, but what is the story with access to healthcare, etc ?

An Claidheamh

Hurrache wrote: »

Somebody in the Ivory Coast is getting all panicky at the moment wondering what the hell is going on.
https://twitter.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1090603439976050690

Fair play, who said they don't have a sense of humour - oh yeah, that was the Brits....another thing they were wrong on.

FrancieBrady

Anybody hear Mairead McGuinness in the Euro parliament on RTE there? Seemed to be getting heckled by UK MEPs and let rip.
I will look for a link to it.

embraer170

robinph wrote: »

Google Maps gives 11hrs 24mins using the EuroTunnel and Holyhead.

Which is an unrealistic time, even for a car.

There's really not such a huge difference between the landbridge and a direct ferry.

nice_guy80

embraer170 wrote: »

Which is an unrealistic time, even for a car.

There's really not such a huge difference between the landbridge and a direct ferry.

Trucks need to stop for tacograph breaks

FrancieBrady

embraer170 wrote: »

Which is an unrealistic time, even for a car.

There's really not such a huge difference between the landbridge and a direct ferry.

Seemed a very quick time to me alright, having had some contact with drivers and the transport industry.