nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are on a diet of information disseminated by people like this, so pervasive is this stuff that you even get some Irish people swallowing it and spreading it.

Vance has been trolling and winding people up all week.

Verhostadt said this at the meeting today. I thought it may have been an off the cuff remark but obviously not when his account tweets it hours later.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090652915600117760?s=19

And a dig at the party before country that's happening there
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1090653199193833478?s=19

Professor Moriarty

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

There was a poll on Sky recently - on phone can't access - where approx 25% of people who stated they were for No Deal thought it meant remaining in the EU.

Quin_Dub

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think it's easy to forget that not everyone is as politically engaged as the posters here.

A lot of people drift around clueless and and others simply look at news as another form of entertainment.

This is a very important point.

Everyone posting here regardless of viewpoint, is orders of magnitude more politically aware & engaged than the average person.

The average person hears the odd news bulletin on the radio during their commute or maybe watches the main evening news a few times a week.

They simply don't have the details readily available to connect the various elements together into a full picture.

Most people treat politics the way I treat soccer (no offence to the multitude of Soccer fans

).

I'm aware of it , probably know who's currently winning the league , can name a few key players and some detail on a few high profile stories.

But , my knowledge ability to hold a conversation on the subject (or truly understand it) is fully exhausted after about 5 minutes..

Sadly that is the political reality..

Imreoir2

nice_guy80 wrote: »

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

I think to make the metaphor work, the Brexiteers see the WA as the useless bit of paper and following from the vote in the commons want May to set aside her Chamberlin like misadventures in Europe and play the role of Churchill batteling the evil Hun on the beaches.

Even though large tracts of Europe and many old and famous States have fallen or may fall into the grip of the EU and all the odious apparatus of Comission rule, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on fish in the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength on the airwaves, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the backstop, we shall fight on the financial settlement, we shall fight on the customs union and on the single market, we shall fight above all amongst ourselves; we shall never surrender.

Water John

Are we looking at the last of the empire with the Home Countries falling apart?

Christy42

AtomicHorror wrote: »

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

Weird poll, gives the impression that 40% of everyone wants a crash-out. I wonder what would happen to those numbers if revoking article 50 was an option?

Can't imagine the remain camp would be taking votes from crash out Brexit.

It shows how the discourse has been over there. The EU and Ireland seems to have just been painted as a panto villain by a large proportion of the media there.

FrancieBrady

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

They are on a diet of information disseminated by people like this, so pervasive is this stuff that you even get some Irish people swallowing it and spreading it.

https://twitter.com/DVATW/status/1089975727548780547

CelticRambler

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

From the interviews I've seen with no-deal supporting members of the public, it seems to be very much a case of "what did the Romans EU ever do for us?" In their eyes, life in Britain is as good as it is (apart from those pesky foreigners taking the jobs that no self-respecting Brit would get out of bed for) because it's Britain, 5th largest economy in the world, winner of two world wars and motherland of the world's most spoken language.

That EU membership may have contributed significantly to Britain's position in the modern world, and that that world has changed considerably in the 40 years since passes them by.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I think it's easy to forget that not everyone is as politically engaged as the posters here.

A lot of people drift around clueless and and others simply look at news as another form of entertainment.

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

except of course the UK save 39bn.

For all of five minutes until the EU demand the £39bn be discharged before a trade deal can be done.

Leroy42

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

There is a huge amount of people that are both totally connected to the wider world through twitter/FB etc and at the same time totally removed from anything connected to the real world.

road_high

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

I think a lot of them think it means life stays as is but no foreigners

road_high

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

No remain option in the poll though.

That’s the way that the wind seems to be blowing now. If the “British public” are that way inclined then so be it I suppose. They’ll just have to accept the consequences of the glorious new era

igCorcaigh

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

AtomicHorror

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

Weird poll, gives the impression that 40% of everyone wants a crash-out. I wonder what would happen to those numbers if revoking article 50 was an option?

Leroy42

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

lawred2

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

so 73% want Brexit with a hard border

sweet

Leroy42

nice_guy80 wrote: »

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

It was suggested by a previous poster that this is simply a delaying tactic by TM.

The U-Turn is so striking that that is the only conclusion that I can think of. She was, until basically Monday morning, telling everyone that the deal was as good as it got, any deal would require future alignment and the backstop was absolutely necessary.

My thinking is she saw yet another defeat coming, this time with possible Labour amendments getting voted through and that would have spelt the end for her and the government.

So she grabs onto the ERG liferaft, knowing that it can't possibly save her but it was better than drowning. She either hopes that she will return empty handed (she can't possibly believe that she did such a poor job in the initial negotiation that she can get a better deal now, and even if she did she would be writing her own resignation letter) and have left no time for anything else and hope that Labour or somebody will vote to stop the whole thing. Or she is willing to go with a No deal on the basis that whilst it may be a disaster for the country she will probably be allowed to remain on as PM.

igCorcaigh

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

No remain option in the poll though.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

L1011

robinph wrote: »

Google Maps gives 11hrs 24mins using the EuroTunnel and Holyhead.

At car motorway speeds and without tachograph restrictions.

nice_guy80

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

FrancieBrady

mrbrianj wrote: »

A lot of people are rightly saying that we (Irl not EU) need a deal as much if not more than the UK. 55k jobs lost and growth savaged on a no deal brexit, but on the flip side what damage do we get from allowing our single market/customs union economy to be swamped by zero tariff zero regulated goods that will flood in through the open border?

It looks like we get hammered either way, but if we do regulate the border we keep open access to the whole EU market.

BTW, a controlled border on our side will only stop and check freight etc. heading south, UK have repeatedly stated that they wont impose border controls, so that will be ok for our goods heading north! (Tory logic)

I have been thinking about this too, and if these people do crash out I think we have no option but to don the green jersey for a while and maintain the integrity of the SM. No choice really but we don't have a choice that I can see.
They'll be back looking to negotiate a deal soon enough.

robinph

embraer170 wrote: »

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

Google Maps gives 11hrs 24mins using the EuroTunnel and Holyhead.

seamus

embraer170 wrote: »

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

Google maps probably. Gives me 12 hours, but of course that assumes that you roll onto the ferry and it takes off as soon as you park.

It's not *that* important anyway. Even if the trip is 20 hours longer by avoiding the UK, logistics companies have been doing this kind of stuff for decades now. Supply chains adapt pretty quickly to account for the slightly longer lead time and we just carry on as before while everything into and out of the UK sits in queues.

The main issue for us is the increased cost of shipping goods in and out of the EU if we can't piggyback on the UK's shipments anymore.

embraer170

Varik wrote: »

The direct sea route will take far longer.

Dublin to Zeebrugge is 11 hours, without travelling through the UK that's goes up to 40 hours. Antwerp & Rotterdam are worse. For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it. Even Calais isn't' that much closer than Zeebrugge.

The sea route is at best adding 20 hours to get to France.

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

mrbrianj

A lot of people are rightly saying that we (Irl not EU) need a deal as much if not more than the UK. 55k jobs lost and growth savaged on a no deal brexit, but on the flip side what damage do we get from allowing our single market/customs union economy to be swamped by zero tariff zero regulated goods that will flood in through the open border?

It looks like we get hammered either way, but if we do regulate the border we keep open access to the whole EU market.

BTW, a controlled border on our side will only stop and check freight etc. heading south, UK have repeatedly stated that they wont impose border controls, so that will be ok for our goods heading north! (Tory logic)

An Ciarraioch

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I would imagine that actual farmers and fishermen have better things to be at of a Wednesday morning than talking to Stephen bloody Nolan for a start.

He always seems to have Jim Allister on his TV programme, presumably in the Ivan Yates spirit of stirring things up to enliven a discussion.

mitresize5

I agree with some of the previous posters.

It looks like a no deal is on the cards, but 6 weeks of trucks backed up from Dover to London and Newry to Belfast will see a deal done fairly pronto.

Varik

CelticRambler wrote: »

Because (amongst other reasons) the last 20 years have seen Calais develop as a free-movement port. There is only rudimentary infrastructure for non-EU (essentially non-UK) traffic. They have to build new facilities from the ground up - quite literally, starting last week (and that's only for the veterinary inspection of cattle and horses). Furthermore, as there's no land available in Dover or Folkestone, it's expected that the UK will have to build it's customs facilities on the French side of the Channel! Nothing says sovereignty like having to ask a foreign state to lend you a bit of land with road frontage! :rolleyes:

Wasn't mentioning the UK's future issues at all.

Only directly links from Ireland, and that the route expansion is all going to be going through belgium and the netherlands.