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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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FrancieBrady

Russman wrote: »

But to stray away from it is dangerously close to appeasement, no ? I accept there's a fine line between "cutting of your nose to spite your face" and being pragmatic about things.
If the EU cave on one issue, its only a matter of time before the next issue that upsets the ERG or DUP arises and another agreement reneged on IMO.

To coin an emerging EU catch phrase; 'No Deal Is Better Than Re-Opening Theresa's Deal'.

Seems to me anymore movement on this whole thing from an EU perspective is dead in the water.
Ball lobbed firmly back into the UK court.

Akrasia

Shelga wrote: »

How much of their fresh food does the UK import?

Fruit, vegetables, meat, dairy, eggs etc- surely they produce a hell of a lot of this stuff themselves, and their internal market would grow, if farmers can no longer export as easily?

Anyone have any statistics on this?

Again, I think Brexit is completely moronic, but talk of people dying in their thousands is surely exaggeration?

At the end of March, it's close to 100% of their fresh food. UK fresh produce is not ready to harvest until May. The months of April and May used to be called 'the hungry gap' because people were living off whatever was left stockpiled from the year before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungry_gap

CelticRambler

robinph wrote: »

There may be issues with products making their way across the UK to Ireland from France, but that will just mean an initial delay I'd expect. Then an exemption for lorries destined for Ireland will be created at Dover so that they can reduce the backlog and get in the stuff destined for the UK more quickly.

If the Switzerland-Germany or Switzerland-France borders are anything to go by, an exemption for transiting cargo won't make any difference, because that cargo can only be fast-tracked once it gets inside the port complex. Hard Brexit controls will create unmanageable congestion well outside the areas controlled by the port/customs authorities.

Varik wrote: »

For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it.

Because (amongst other reasons) the last 20 years have seen Calais develop as a free-movement port. There is only rudimentary infrastructure for non-EU (essentially non-UK) traffic. They have to build new facilities from the ground up - quite literally, starting last week (and that's only for the veterinary inspection of cattle and horses). Furthermore, as there's no land available in Dover or Folkestone, it's expected that the UK will have to build it's customs facilities on the French side of the Channel! Nothing says sovereignty like having to ask a foreign state to lend you a bit of land with road frontage! :rolleyes:

Hurrache

So Barnier and Junker saying as we expected at the EU Parliament debate today,
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1090634888099889153
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1090636448758484995

Leroy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

They won't want to be faced with dozens of their lorries stuck in Manston for an indefinite period of time.

And that will have serious effects on Ireland as well. Haulage companies will want to avoid the UK for some time to see what is going to happen.

For Forks Sake

downcow wrote: »

I promised to send yous a link to this mornings nolan. Normally a very diverse set of callers. I have listened 40 mins in and every single NI caller so far wants uk to stand firm even that means no deal. Callers have included farmers and fishermen.
So maybe I am more reflective of views up north than you think
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00026qr

I would imagine that actual farmers and fishermen have better things to be at of a Wednesday morning than talking to Stephen bloody Nolan for a start.

Leroy42

someone posted earlier in this thread (it is too far back to search it out) that the UK keep going on about the 11th hour compromise by the EU in situations but that the 11th hour has already passed. The EU already caved to TM's demand for a UK wide backstop, that was the climbdown at the 11th hour.

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

someone posted earlier in this thread (it is too far back to search it out) that the UK keep going on about the 11th hour compromise by the EU in situations but that the 11th hour has already passed. The EU already caved to TM's demand for a UK wide backstop, that was the climbdown at the 11th hour.

A key thing to remember is that May has just reneged on the WA. How on earth could the EU offer major concessions to or sign a new deal with such a slippery chancer backed by a dodgy Parliament? Nobody would trust her to keep her word for even two days.

Varik

CelticRambler wrote: »

Because (amongst other reasons) the last 20 years have seen Calais develop as a free-movement port. There is only rudimentary infrastructure for non-EU (essentially non-UK) traffic. They have to build new facilities from the ground up - quite literally, starting last week (and that's only for the veterinary inspection of cattle and horses). Furthermore, as there's no land available in Dover or Folkestone, it's expected that the UK will have to build it's customs facilities on the French side of the Channel! Nothing says sovereignty like having to ask a foreign state to lend you a bit of land with road frontage! :rolleyes:

Wasn't mentioning the UK's future issues at all.

Only directly links from Ireland, and that the route expansion is all going to be going through belgium and the netherlands.

mitresize5

I agree with some of the previous posters.

It looks like a no deal is on the cards, but 6 weeks of trucks backed up from Dover to London and Newry to Belfast will see a deal done fairly pronto.

An Ciarraioch

For Forks Sake wrote: »

I would imagine that actual farmers and fishermen have better things to be at of a Wednesday morning than talking to Stephen bloody Nolan for a start.

He always seems to have Jim Allister on his TV programme, presumably in the Ivan Yates spirit of stirring things up to enliven a discussion.

mrbrianj

A lot of people are rightly saying that we (Irl not EU) need a deal as much if not more than the UK. 55k jobs lost and growth savaged on a no deal brexit, but on the flip side what damage do we get from allowing our single market/customs union economy to be swamped by zero tariff zero regulated goods that will flood in through the open border?

It looks like we get hammered either way, but if we do regulate the border we keep open access to the whole EU market.

BTW, a controlled border on our side will only stop and check freight etc. heading south, UK have repeatedly stated that they wont impose border controls, so that will be ok for our goods heading north! (Tory logic)

embraer170

Varik wrote: »

The direct sea route will take far longer.

Dublin to Zeebrugge is 11 hours, without travelling through the UK that's goes up to 40 hours. Antwerp & Rotterdam are worse. For some reason Calais isn't being considered, the mayor there was very angry about it. Even Calais isn't' that much closer than Zeebrugge.

The sea route is at best adding 20 hours to get to France.

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

seamus

embraer170 wrote: »

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

Google maps probably. Gives me 12 hours, but of course that assumes that you roll onto the ferry and it takes off as soon as you park.

It's not *that* important anyway. Even if the trip is 20 hours longer by avoiding the UK, logistics companies have been doing this kind of stuff for decades now. Supply chains adapt pretty quickly to account for the slightly longer lead time and we just carry on as before while everything into and out of the UK sits in queues.

The main issue for us is the increased cost of shipping goods in and out of the EU if we can't piggyback on the UK's shipments anymore.

robinph

embraer170 wrote: »

How do you calculate Dublin to Zeebrugge in 11 hours for a truck?

Google Maps gives 11hrs 24mins using the EuroTunnel and Holyhead.

FrancieBrady

mrbrianj wrote: »

A lot of people are rightly saying that we (Irl not EU) need a deal as much if not more than the UK. 55k jobs lost and growth savaged on a no deal brexit, but on the flip side what damage do we get from allowing our single market/customs union economy to be swamped by zero tariff zero regulated goods that will flood in through the open border?

It looks like we get hammered either way, but if we do regulate the border we keep open access to the whole EU market.

BTW, a controlled border on our side will only stop and check freight etc. heading south, UK have repeatedly stated that they wont impose border controls, so that will be ok for our goods heading north! (Tory logic)

I have been thinking about this too, and if these people do crash out I think we have no option but to don the green jersey for a while and maintain the integrity of the SM. No choice really but we don't have a choice that I can see.
They'll be back looking to negotiate a deal soon enough.

nice_guy80

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

L1011

robinph wrote: »

Google Maps gives 11hrs 24mins using the EuroTunnel and Holyhead.

At car motorway speeds and without tachograph restrictions.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

igCorcaigh

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

No remain option in the poll though.

Leroy42

nice_guy80 wrote: »

do the UK learn nothing from history?

are they hoping May will come back from Brussels and wave a sheet of paper in the air and declare - "Peace in our time"

It was suggested by a previous poster that this is simply a delaying tactic by TM.

The U-Turn is so striking that that is the only conclusion that I can think of. She was, until basically Monday morning, telling everyone that the deal was as good as it got, any deal would require future alignment and the backstop was absolutely necessary.

My thinking is she saw yet another defeat coming, this time with possible Labour amendments getting voted through and that would have spelt the end for her and the government.

So she grabs onto the ERG liferaft, knowing that it can't possibly save her but it was better than drowning. She either hopes that she will return empty handed (she can't possibly believe that she did such a poor job in the initial negotiation that she can get a better deal now, and even if she did she would be writing her own resignation letter) and have left no time for anything else and hope that Labour or somebody will vote to stop the whole thing. Or she is willing to go with a No deal on the basis that whilst it may be a disaster for the country she will probably be allowed to remain on as PM.

lawred2

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

so 73% want Brexit with a hard border

sweet

Leroy42

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

AtomicHorror

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1090655956369842176?s=19

Weird poll, gives the impression that 40% of everyone wants a crash-out. I wonder what would happen to those numbers if revoking article 50 was an option?

igCorcaigh

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

road_high

igCorcaigh wrote: »

That's nearly 40pc preferring a no deal Brexit.
Wow!

No remain option in the poll though.

That’s the way that the wind seems to be blowing now. If the “British public” are that way inclined then so be it I suppose. They’ll just have to accept the consequences of the glorious new era

road_high

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

I think a lot of them think it means life stays as is but no foreigners

Leroy42

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I'm baffled that people can misunderstand what no deal means. It's not like there has been insufficient media coverage. Perhaps people are reading the red tops and nothing else?

There is a huge amount of people that are both totally connected to the wider world through twitter/FB etc and at the same time totally removed from anything connected to the real world.

seamus

Leroy42 wrote: »

except of course the UK save 39bn.

For all of five minutes until the EU demand the £39bn be discharged before a trade deal can be done.

MrMusician18

Leroy42 wrote: »

But we have seen polls before that many people really do not understand what "No Deal" brexit actually means. Many appear to think that it means that things stay as they are, except of course the UK save 39bn.

I think it's easy to forget that not everyone is as politically engaged as the posters here.

A lot of people drift around clueless and and others simply look at news as another form of entertainment.