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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Only yesterday, The President of the EU told May that the WA would never be reopened unless she changed her red lines. Two hours later, she was telling the Commons that she would retain her red lines and renegotiate the WA.

The irony in all of this is the hypocracy that they keep repeating things expecting a different result aka the definition of insanity.

At this point her going to Brussels demanding the same thing over and over is going to end up the likes of this from the EU:

Dear Teresa,

Get Rekt.

Regard,
The EU.

They dont compromise for outsiders and if the UK actually go through with their No Deal BS they'll regret it severely.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A hard Brexit would devastate NI. In 2016, NI exported 30% of its goods to Ireland. Ireland exported 1% (yes, that's right, one percent) of its goods to NI.

It's pretty obvious that something like this is a gamechanger for NI if it happens. Saw an article I think it was in the Guardian (on phone so cant link it atm) prediciting a 2nd indy ref in Scotland and Reunification referendum in NI within 18 months of No Deal crashout and both likely to pass if it does. We can warn them and advise them but ultimately if they refuse to heed it they're the ones going to suffer for it.

Professor Moriarty

charlie14 wrote: »

That is true, but when you consider what has taken place during that 18 month period with the DUP stance, a party that supported a Brexit vote and the UUP that opposed it, then it does not look as if there will be any change from the DUP being the largest NI loyalist party for the foreseeable future.

That plus the fact that opinion polls are generally +/- 3% would mean that in essence that change in support of 5% is negligible.

5% is just the start. And remember, 5% constitutes 10% of the Unionist vote. Wait until their economy starts hurting from Brexit. Yes, the DUP will remain the largest party in the near future but my point is that the trend is shifting towards moderate unionism.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

5% is just the start. And remember, 5% constitutes 10% of the Unionist vote. Wait until their economy starts hurting from Brexit. Yes, the DUP will remain the largest party in the near future but my point is that the trend is shifting towards moderate unionism.

And moderate nationalism (as evidenced by fianna Fail) going in to a form of partnership with SDLP last week.

I think after the dust settles on Brexit (which could be for a while yet) there will be a change in the political landscape in the North but while Brexit is ongoing, no one is really clamouring to get back in to Stormont.

Dyr

First Up wrote: »

Raab telling a HoC committee we need to find a ladder for the Irish govt to climb down.

I'm sure there's an old saying somewhere that goes "When you've put your own neck in a noose it's not the time to be lending people your ladder"

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

And moderate nationalism (as evidenced by fianna Fail) going in to a form of partnership with SDLP last week.

I think after the dust settles on Brexit (which could be for a while yet) there will be a change in the political landscape in the North but while Brexit is ongoing, no one is really clamouring to get back in to Stormont.

Yes indeed. It might be wishful thinking, but I do think politics in NI might becoming more moderate. It suits everyone presently, from a political perspective, not to restart Stormont. SF are quite happy sitting on their hands and keeping their mouths shut as the DUP sticks its head in the fire.

iguana

Akrasia wrote: »

Basically, as it comes closer to brexit day, there will be panic buying. People who can afford it will stockpile up on food, like they're already stockpiling medicines and the shelves will start to become empty in the weeks before brexit day.

Stockpiling is well under way in the UK. Keeping an eye on forums like mumsnet gives an interesting picture. For the last month or two there has been an increase on the busier forums on the topic of stockpiling and the dedicated prepper forum has never been as busy. Initially most topics were started by posters expressing surprise at people they know in real life stockpiling, with a few posters arguing the need for it. Now there are threads where most posters discuss what they are buying extra of, what they expect to run out, whether to buy frozen or not due to the possibility of power cuts, how likely there is to be rioting if food runs out in some areas, etc. The general gist is to buy extra now while shops can over-order to meet increased demand as waiting until March has the potential to create problems. And to avoid telling anyone in real life about what you have extra of.

The mumsnet demographic is quite middle-class, mainly remain voters, mainly mothers (unsurprisingly). There is a massive mix of people who know what they are talking about, those who don't know but want to learn, those who have extreme views on either end of the spectrum. So it's an interesting insight into how so many ordinary people are feeling. And then you remember it's real people in our neighbouring country, with very serious worries about how to feed their families in a couple of months time.

Infini

Bambi wrote: »

I'm sure there's an old saying somewhere that goes "When you've put your own neck in a noose it's not the time to be lending people your ladder"

Think the more correct term would be "Give a man enough rope and they'll hang themselves eventually". This can only go on for another 8 weeks before it backfires in the most spetacular fashion for the UK.

Edit: This might be an older topic but I believe there was a fuel strike back in the early 2000s in England which basically brought the whole place to a standstill. The issue was over excessive tax but the government buckled ultimately over it. I cant imagine the UK government surviving more than a week or 2 in a hard brexit scenario as that level of disruption could destabilise them.

charlie14

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It can't be anything other than a stalling tactic. This way she gets to wait out the clock with a pretense of not doing so. It's all she can really do until the Tory factions show some sort of compromise.

She may be an extremely stubborn woman but I would not judge her as being a stupid one.
She is quite safe as PM until after Brexit at the very least as no one else either wants the job, or those that do would not get the support required. She knows she is not going to get anything new on the backstop so she is simply stalling letting the clock run down knowing that the only choice is a hard exit or her WA.

She is simply playing the game. Keeping herself as leader of her party no matter how it pans out, while doing everything her hardliners require but ultimately leaving them exposed to making the call and taking the blame if they chose a hard exit other than her WA.

MPFGLB

Jeremy Corbyn is so behind the curve on Brexit ...
Its pathetic to see him in the HoC asking his front bench questions as May talks so he can answer her ...he hasnt a clue

Labour need to get him out and get Yvetter Cooper in
Imagine if Labour had a real leader

MPFGLB

BTw Brexit has adversely effected me in London

I work as a contractor and the number of contracts has nose dived since November
Also the value of my flat has nose dived by 35%...I was hoping to sell and move on

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It can't be anything other than a stalling tactic. This way she gets to wait out the clock with a pretense of not doing so. It's all she can really do until the Tory factions show some sort of compromise.

I despair following the events of last night and hope the EU does as it`s said and send TM packing.
There is the small matter though that as recently as last week the EU were lampooning TM saying"tell us what you want,what you really,really want"-was this just that or a genuine attempt for clarification?

Dyr

Infini wrote: »

Think the more correct term would be "Give a man enough rope and they'll hang themselves eventually". This can only go on for another 8 weeks before it backfires in the most spetacular fashion for the UK.

Actually a legal type gave me one about defendants refusing to engage with the process: "When they see the Gallows they change their tune"

No sign of that thus far

woohoo!!!

Hard Brexit odds shortening, 3/1.

Havockk

MPFGLB wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn is so behind the curve on Brexit ...
Its pathetic to see him in the HoC asking his front bench questions as May talks so he can answer her ...he hasnt a clue

Labour need to get him out and get Yvetter Cooper in
Imagine if Labour had a real leader

That's an utter simplistic reading of what his actual on teh ground problems are. Not every labour supporter is in favour of the likes of a 'peoples vote'

Dyr

MPFGLB wrote: »

BTw Brexit has adversely effected me in London

I work as a contractor and the number of contracts has nose dived since November
Also the value of my flat has nose dived by 35%...I was hoping to sell and move on

Is falling house prices not newsworthy in the UK? The Irish media are obsessed with the property market.

Infini

MPFGLB wrote: »

BTw Brexit has adversely effected me in London

I work as a contractor and the number of contracts has nose dived since November
Also the value of my flat has nose dived by 35%...I was hoping to sell and move on

This is just the start just wait till theres a run on the currency that 35% then gets magnified even more in real terms.

bob mcbob

Ok what do I think (hope) happened last night and what next.

I think the Brexiteers are actually now nervous.If either Grieve or Cooper had succeeded then the result would be a very soft Brexit. They now recognise that May's deal is the best they are going to get. What has happened to all the vassal state comments from JRM and Bozo.

As a face saver for them all the focus in now on the Irish backstop.

SO TM goes to Brussels and says give me something on the backstop and either -

a - EU makes some fuzzy statement about the backstop, TM declares it a victory and the Brexiteers swing behind TM at the next vote.
b - EU does nothing, Brexiteers blink first see (a)
c - EU does nothing, Brexiteers don't blink, TM's deal is voted down again. Grieve and Coopers amendments come up again - they succeed then HoC moves for cross party agreement for a softer Brexit

VinLieger

Havockk wrote: »

That's an utter simplistic reading of what his actual on teh ground problems are. Not every labour supporter is in favour of the likes of a 'peoples vote'

No but a majority of the party membership are which was voted for and agreed upon at their most recent party congress

downcow

I promised to send yous a link to this mornings nolan. Normally a very diverse set of callers. I have listened 40 mins in and every single NI caller so far wants uk to stand firm even that means no deal. Callers have included farmers and fishermen.
So maybe I am more reflective of views up north than you think
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00026qr

charlie14

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

5% is just the start. And remember, 5% constitutes 10% of the Unionist vote. Wait until their economy starts hurting from Brexit. Yes, the DUP will remain the largest party in the near future but my point is that the trend is shifting towards moderate unionism.

5% shift in an opinion poll when you consider the margin of error, the position of both parties on the Brexit referendum and the subsequent antics of the DUP while being welcome, is disappointing.
Sad to say, but there has as long as I can recall a strong element of unionist support for " if them ones are in favour, then we are opposed".
On that poll, especially now in full knowledge of what the DUP Brexit policy will bring to NI, I`m afraid that element of unionist thinking is still very much evident if you wish to appeal to the vast majority of unionist voters.

WomanSkirtFan8

gmisk wrote: »

If you are expecting any kind of rhyme or reason from the DUP and more specifically Sammy (get the ethnics out) Wilson you will be disapponted, remember he was an environmental minister who doesn't believe in global warming, a fair amount of them are also into creationism.
Oh and one of them as recently as 2016 didn't know heterosexuals could contract HIV....
Arlene should have walked after the cash for ash scandal but didn't, Ian Paisley junior seems to get regular paid trips around the world for him and his family and is still there.

Thankfully there general voting base are old and getting older.

Yes thats exactly my point

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

I despair following the events of last night and hope the EU does as it`s said and send TM packing.
There is the small matter though that as recently as last week the EU were lampooning TM saying"tell us what you want,what you really,really want"-was this just that or a genuine attempt for clarification?

They've long since given up expecting May to provide clarification as to what the UK wants. And in light of this week's developments they will regard her as generlly lacking in judgment, and an untrustworthy interlocutor.

The purpose of asking May what the UK wants is not to get clarification of what the UK wants. It's to bring out the fact that the UK doesn't know what it wants. Or, at any rate, that May doesn't know what the UK wants, which is pretty much the same thing.

Infini

bob mcbob wrote: »

SO TM goes to Brussels and says give me something on the backstop and either -

a - EU makes some fuzzy statement about the backstop, TM declares it a victory and the Brexiteers swing behind TM at the next vote.
b - EU does nothing, Brexiteers blink first see (a)
c - EU does nothing, Brexiteers don't blink, TM's deal is voted down again. Grieve and Coopers amendments come up again - they succeed then HoC moves for cross party agreement for a softer Brexit

C is the only likely one the EU isnt going to buckle because ultimately for the EU its a ripple on the bow and a group of 27 nations can easily absorb the impact. The UK on the other hand is likely to get shattered.

The Brexiteers are too blinkered in ideology to back down and the EU doesnt compromise with external parties.

road_high

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Heardvit. The woman is just as delusional ad the rest of the UK. Tried to talk down. To this country as well. Bad move edwina! You should really know better than that.

Heard it. She was dreadful, as arrogant as any hardline brexiter you could find. Just dismissive of everything and basically “it’s our way or no way” mantra.

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

I promised to send yous a link to this mornings nolan. Normally a very diverse set of callers. I have listened 40 mins in and every single NI caller so far wants uk to stand firm even that means no deal. Callers have included farmers and fishermen.
So maybe I am more reflective of views up north than you think
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00026qr

And the BBC producers get to choose the callers you hear..... so this means nothing. I'm not saying you're wrong its just proof of nothing you have said as its entirely possible its a very selective sample of opinions.

MPFGLB

Havockk wrote: »

That's an utter simplistic reading of what his actual on teh ground problems are. Not every labour supporter is in favour of the likes of a 'peoples vote'

I said he hasnt a clue and he hasnt ... its not simplistic its a fact

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/GerardBattenMEP/status/1090592005397381120

Lads it's only 100 trucks a day what's the big deal?

Seriously these people have to know they are lying right?

charlie14

Bambi wrote: »

Actually a legal type gave me one about defendants refusing to engage with the process: "When they see the Gallows they change their tune"

No sign of that thus far

Samuel Johnston. "When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight it concentrates his mind wonderfully"

After 14th. Feb that gallows will be coming into stark view.

Fionn1952

downcow wrote: »

I promised to send yous a link to this mornings nolan. Normally a very diverse set of callers. I have listened 40 mins in and every single NI caller so far wants uk to stand firm even that means no deal. Callers have included farmers and fishermen.
So maybe I am more reflective of views up north than you think
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00026qr

If you think that, 'people who would actually call the Nolan show' is a fair sample of the opinion of the general populace of NI, I truly despair for you.

Quickpip

downcow wrote: »

I promised to send yous a link to this mornings nolan. Normally a very diverse set of callers. I have listened 40 mins in and every single NI caller so far wants uk to stand firm even that means no deal. Callers have included farmers and fishermen.
So maybe I am more reflective of views up north than you think

I think the referendum result in Northern Ireland is the best reflection of what the views of people up North are, rather than a radio phone in show.
That was 56% to remain and 44% to leave if memory serves me right.
It roughly broke down to the same old historical voting patterns(Normal people and headcases).