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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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lawred2

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't underestimate the pressure they are experiencing from the
NI business and agriculture communities.

They do not care.

This is patently obvious.

joe40

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't underestimate the pressure they are experiencing from the
NI business and agriculture communities.

I would hope there is plenty of pressure because their stance is very damaging.

The thing I have most difficulty understanding is why the DUP supported leave in the first place. I can see how the backstop in their minds is something they feel they need to shout about, but EU membership was in no way damaging in any real or imagined way to Northern Ireland Unionism. Quite the opposite

The only reason I can see is that they hoped to put a wedge between NI and Ireland by been out of the EU.
Things like an invisible border blurred the lines between North and South. They wanted those lines put back in clear focus, and to hell with any the consequences either political or economic.
NI is not the same as any other region of the UK, that is patently obvious. Welsh people do not have an automatic right to an Irish Passport.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

Edwina Curry coming up on Pat Kenny now for anyone who thinks they may benefit from a bit of raised blood pressure this morning.

The only reason she gets to soapbox on Irish radio is to generate a reaction in the listenership. No other reason.

It's the equivalent of trolling.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

Thoughts

There is no majority for any viable deal in the HoC. Worse any Minority deal will be actively voted down

Even worse there is a likely majority in the HoC (crowd mentality) that believes the EU will cave on the backstop

By the time this mistake is realized it will be too late.

=> No DEAL is all I can see

I don't believe that there is a majority in the HoC that thinks the EU will cave on the backstop. There is a (small) majority in favour of asking the EU to cave, but that is not the same thing.

You are correct in saying that there is no majority in favour of any particular answer to the Brexit question. The answer which would come closest to majority support, and which could most easily be turning into majority support, is probably a very soft Brexit - UK in customs union and/or in EEA - but the leadership of neither party will countenance this.

But there are negative majorities - majorities for rejecting particular solutions, and the biggest majority in this sense is probably the majority which would reject a no-deal, which is probably over 500 out of the 650 members of the house. The problem is that the only effective way to reject a no deal is to affirmatively choose something else, and there is no agreement on what that should be.

A rational way of making a choice here would be to stop trying to build majority support for one choice, and instead to start eliminating the least popular choice. Find out which choice enjoys the least support and eliminate it. Then find out which of the remaining choices enjoys the least support, and elminate that. Repeat until you only have one choice left and that is, well, your choice. It's the option that offends the fewest people.

But, rational though it would be to proceed in this fashion, they're not going to do it.

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP were not always the dominant unionist party in Northern Ireland, their position isn't unassailable.
The ground is shifting in northern Ireland and if they cause a no deal exit, it could shift quite dramatically.

Given that each community is more entrenched than ever it will hardly shift back to the centre

Akrasia

Brexit day is 29th of March

There's a Fruit and Veg importer talking to James O Brien on LBC at the moment and he's painting a very very grim picture of what will happen under a no deal scenario.

Here's a very interesting question.
Will there be food rationing Before 29th of March in the UK if there isn't any deal agreed before then?

Basically, as it comes closer to brexit day, there will be panic buying. People who can afford it will stockpile up on food, like they're already stockpiling medicines and the shelves will start to become empty in the weeks before brexit day.

March April and May are traditionally the time of the year in the UK where they have to import the most food. Their domestic stocks are running out from the last season, and their new growing season hasn't started yet. Almost 100% of their fresh food at this time is imported.

What will the government response to panic buying be?
What will they do when the newspapers and TV news are full of pictures of empty supermarket shelves and stories of people who haven't got any food to feed their kids or are relying on baked beans and cereals before brexit has even happened?

Is this likely to be the catalyst that prevents a no deal from happening?

The Brexiteers who think the pressure will all be on the EU as the 11th hour arrives in negotiations are living in cloud cuckoo land. In the week before 29th of March, could there be food riots in the UK before Brexit even happens.

First Up

Raab telling a HoC committee we need to find a ladder for the Irish govt to climb down.

Reminds me of the Monty Python " its only a scratch" sketch in Holy Grail.

Infini

lawred2 wrote: »

They do not care.

This is patently obvious.

That willful disregard for those groups will without a doubt come back to bite them in the arse at some point. Those groups have the pull to actually do something about the DUP to damage them.

fash

gimli2112 wrote: »

I keep hearing this in the media but someone earlier made a good point that the EU have no such history of compromising on their core beliefs. Making concessions on trade deals is one thing, this is something else, I think.

Correct: history shows that the EU doesn't compromise with outsiders only - compromise is for members only and to enhance the Union. Fudge with outsiders weakens the Union, not strengthen it:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pswidlicki/status/1090393701593931776

FrancieBrady

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Given that each community is more entrenched than ever it will hardly shift back to the centre

The politics are entrenched, the polls show that moderates are very much considering their positions.
Politicians should be treading very carefully if they want to keep these swing voters onside and, dare I say it, in the UK.

[Deleted User]

ARNOLD J RIMMER wrote: »

I think in reality, its the DUP who are the only ones concerned about the Backstop.

The Tories and Labour know that the majority of people in NI dont see that backstop as an issue.

With TM and JC meeting, they will look to get a deal passed (which will include the backstop) where the DUP final votes will not matter if they vote against.

And as I always say it's all Corbyn's fault

If Labour under Corby had been less ambiguous on Brexit and had been a stronger opposition then May would never have risked the 2018 GE, and then the DUP would never have the infulence they have.

A deal would have been done years ago.

There was no need for May to call the GE, bur Labour's weakness under Corbyn's gave her the opportunity to increase her majority and it failed.

WomanSkirtFan8

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Look at Sammy's chippy remark last night. They do not give a shi*te.

The lemmings will vote for them come hell or high water.

In all honesty what did you expect from the DUP? A case of blind and misplaced so-called 'loyality' methinks

Skelet0n

joe40 wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't underestimate the pressure they are experiencing from the
NI business and agriculture communities.

I would hope there is plenty of pressure because their stance is very damaging.

The thing I have most difficulty understanding is why the DUP supported leave in the first place. I can see how the backstop in their minds is something they feel they need to shout about, but EU membership was in no way damaging in any real or imagined way to Northern Ireland Unionism. Quite the opposite

The only reason I can see is that they hoped to put a wedge between NI and Ireland by been out of the EU.
Things like an invisible border blurred the lines between North and South. They wanted those lines put back in clear focus, and to hell with any the consequences either political or economic.
NI is not the same as any other region of the UK, that is patently obvious. Welsh people do not have an automatic right to an Irish Passport.

I think this from Sammy Wilson’s Wikipedia might have a bit to do with it:
“Wilson caused controversy in March 2016 during a BBC Spotlight episode discussing the implications of the EU referendum, when he was recorded agreeing with a member of the public who said that they wanted to leave the European Union and "get the ethnics out". Wilson stated "You are absolutely right". Wilson claimed he was agreeing with the desire to leave the European Union, not the "ethnics out" call. Wilson was criticised by the Polish consul in Northern Ireland and various other political parties.”

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The politics are entrenched, the polls show that moderates are very much considering their positions.
Politicians should be treading very carefully if they want to keep these swing voters onside and, dare I say it, in the UK.

Moderate unionism is showing no sign of a comeback. The UUP is as irrelevant as ever.

fash

10000maniacs wrote: »

O'Rourke was saying we need to throw May a bone of some sort to save 1000's of jobs in Ireland. How is this even possible?
The ERG only voted for the Brady amendment because she told them she would go to Brussels and get rid of the backstop from her deal. In 2 weeks time when the backstop is still there, the ERG will pull support from Mays deal.

In fact the ERG merely said that the backstop was the "worst of the problems" with the WA. Miraculously return with no backstop and the "2nd worst problem" (whatever they decide that is) will become a reason to vote no deal:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1090324442398507008

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Moderate unionism is showing no sign of a comeback. The UUP is as irrelevant as ever.

In the past 18 months, the DUP has dropped 5% to 31% and the UUP has risen 5% to 15%.

murphaph

Akrasia wrote: »

Brexit day is 29th of March

There's a Fruit and Veg importer talking to James O Brien on LBC at the moment and he's painting a very very grim picture of what will happen under a no deal scenario.

Here's a very interesting question.
Will there be food rationing Before 29th of March in the UK if there isn't any deal agreed before then?

Basically, as it comes closer to brexit day, there will be panic buying. People who can afford it will stockpile up on food, like they're already stockpiling medicines and the shelves will start to become empty in the weeks before brexit day.

March April and May are traditionally the time of the year in the UK where they have to import the most food. Their domestic stocks are running out from the last season, and their new growing season hasn't started yet. Almost 100% of their fresh food at this time is imported.

What will the government response to panic buying be?
What will they do when the newspapers and TV news are full of pictures of empty supermarket shelves and stories of people who haven't got any food to feed their kids or are relying on baked beans and cereals before brexit has even happened?

Is this likely to be the catalyst that prevents a no deal from happening?

The Brexiteers who think the pressure will all be on the EU as the 11th hour arrives in negotiations are living in cloud cuckoo land. In the week before 29th of March, could there be food riots in the UK before Brexit even happens.

I've been wondering the same. There's no way we won't see panic buying if we are a week out from B-day and there is no deal, it's virtually inevitable.

gmisk

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

In all honesty what did you expect from the DUP? A case of blind and misplaced so-called 'loyality' methinks

If you are expecting any kind of rhyme or reason from the DUP and more specifically Sammy (get the ethnics out) Wilson you will be disapponted, remember he was an environmental minister who doesn't believe in global warming, a fair amount of them are also into creationism.
Oh and one of them as recently as 2016 didn't know heterosexuals could contract HIV....
Arlene should have walked after the cash for ash scandal but didn't, Ian Paisley junior seems to get regular paid trips around the world for him and his family and is still there.

Thankfully there general voting base are old and getting older.

Akrasia

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And as I always say it's all Corbyn's fault

If Labour under Corby had been less ambiguous on Brexit and had been a stronger opposition then May would never have risked the 2018 GE, and then the DUP would never have the infulence they have.

A deal would have been done years ago.

There was no need for May to call the GE, bur Labour's weakness under Corbyn's gave her the opportunity to increase her majority and it failed.

There's more than enough blame to go around, but the lions share belongs to the Tory party and Theresa May.

Corbyn and his loyalists have acted shamefully but the majority of blame goes on the Brexiteers themselves rather than those who failed to stop them

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I will absolutely.
George Galloway was on Nolan this morning. I only had time to listen to first 10 minutes but I never thought I would see the day George would agree with me. He is basically saying Eu have lots of form for saying no no no and then at 11 hours 59 mins saying yes.
I’ll post the link later.

See the post below,

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What these people don't realise is the 'eleventh hour' has passed and the compromises were made when May agreed the deal.

March 29th is a UK deadline to accept the deal, revoke or crash out.
It has nothing to do with anyone else really.

The UK has misunderstood the EU moving at the last moment. As you say that time was December 2017 and November 2018 where movement was going to happen. The deal has been agreed and there is very little to go back to unless it favours the EU. This line has also repeatedly been said by BBC reporters from Brussels and I think it has become mantra for everyone that they believe, even if there is major caveats to this that needs to be understood.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

And as I always say it's all Corbyn's fault

If Labour under Corby had been less ambiguous on Brexit and had been a stronger opposition then May would never have risked the 2018 GE, and then the DUP would never have the infulence they have.

A deal would have been done years ago.

There was no need for May to call the GE, bur Labour's weakness under Corbyn's gave her the opportunity to increase her majority and it failed.

A Brexit vote brought on by fighting within the Conservative Party. A general election that was called because Labour looked weak at that time and Labour then claws back support during the election. Getting into bed with the DUP despite warnings from various corners not to do that.

Yet despite all of these mistakes from May and her Tory Party you want to blame Corbyn? I think I have heard it all now.

Chips Lovell

I think the vast majority of MPs know that a.) the EU isn't going to revise the withdrawal agreement without movement on the red lines and b.) a hard Brexit would be catastrophic for the UK.

That doesn't necessarily mean that there won't be a hard Brexit though.

You can essentially split MPs into 3 camps.

1. Those that know the only alternatives at present are May's deal, no deal or no Brexit, and aren't afraid to say it. Unfortunately, even these people are quite divided on what the alternative to no deal should be. Accept May's deal? Move on red lines? Second referendum? Withdraw article 50?

2. Those who know what the only realistic options are, but continue to peddle the notion that there's magical alternative. This is usually for one or more of the following reasons.

a. They fear that admitting the truth will lead them to accusations of them betraying the Brexit vote.
b. Maintaining party unity is more important than avoiding a hard Brexit.
c. Brexit chaos will create opportunities of advancement for them into leadership positions, i.e. "Someone will have to come in to clean up the mess. The EU and May can be blamed for it."

3. Those who know a hard Brexit will be catastrophic, but want it anyway. Like all extremists, they see the economic upheaval as a price worth paying for remaking society in the manner more to their liking. Creative destruction as it were.

To avoid a hard Brexit, there needs to be more than just recognition that it will be a disaster. They all know that already, even if they aren't saying it.

FrancieBrady

Dodds lecturing Dublin in the HOC atm on inflammatory language...the irony.

Enzokk

You know how for every thing Trump does these days as President there is a tweet of his from the past where he criticized Obama for doing the same thing? Well seems that May is following in the same vein.

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1090585772871376898

So basically May will be pursuing a path that she herself knows is not available.

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the past 18 months, the DUP has dropped 5% to 31% and the UUP has risen 5% to 15%.

The DUP are blatently incompetent and a good few of them are unfit for government as they have no interest in the common good. Cash for Ash showed plenty of people they have no integrity or are interest in accepting misakes made on their watch. Putting Ideology and party before common sense and responsibility always comes back to bite those who do so.

The UUP I havent heard much of of late but they supported remain and at least they had the sense to know what kind of mess backing leave would leave unionism in by doing so.

If they crash out the DUP will regret it as most people will always consider the interests of themselves and their families first before party politics. A UI becomes a hell of a lot more attractive to those people when jobs are lost, peoples money loses value and prices rise across the board. This even more so when you burn your own buisness and farming communities for baseless ideology as those would have the financial pull and ability to swing any border poll towards this if it happens.

charlie14

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the past 18 months, the DUP has dropped 5% to 31% and the UUP has risen 5% to 15%.

That is true, but when you consider what has taken place during that 18 month period with the DUP stance, a party that supported a Brexit vote and the UUP that opposed it, then it does not look as if there will be any change from the DUP being the largest NI loyalist party for the foreseeable future.

That plus the fact that opinion polls are generally +/- 3% would mean that in essence that change in support of 5% is negligible.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Enzokk wrote: »

So basically May will be pursuing a path that she herself knows is not available.

James O'Brien played a recording of her (when she was against Brexit) explaining that a NI border and Brexit doesn't work.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

You know how for every thing Trump does these days as President there is a tweet of his from the past where he criticized Obama for doing the same thing? Well seems that May is following in the same vein.

https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1090585772871376898

So basically May will be pursuing a path that she herself knows is not available.

Only yesterday, The President of the EU told May that the WA would never be reopened unless she changed her red lines. Two hours later, she was telling the Commons that she would retain her red lines and renegotiate the WA.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Only yesterday, The President of the EU told May that the WA would never be reopened unless she changed her red lines. Two hours later, she was telling the Commons that she would retain her red lines and renegotiate the WA.

She has to be playing the HoC more than the EU at this stage. She knows the EU position and I kind of think she might have behaved as she did yesterday just so she can tell the HoC in 2 weeks "I tried, they didn't move, vote for my deal".

ancapailldorcha

It can't be anything other than a stalling tactic. This way she gets to wait out the clock with a pretense of not doing so. It's all she can really do until the Tory factions show some sort of compromise.

Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

The DUP are blatently incompetent and a good few of them are unfit for government as they have no interest in the common good. Cash for Ash showed plenty of people they have no integrity or are interest in accepting misakes made on their watch. Putting Ideology and party before common sense and responsibility always comes back to bite those who do so.

The UUP I havent heard much of of late but they supported remain and at least they had the sense to know what kind of mess backing leave would leave unionism in by doing so.

If they crash out the DUP will regret it as most people will always consider the interests of themselves and their families first before party politics. A UI becomes a hell of a lot more attractive to those people when jobs are lost, peoples money loses value and prices rise across the board. This even more so when you burn your own buisness and farming communities for baseless ideology as those would have the financial pull and ability to swing any border poll towards this if it happens.

A hard Brexit would devastate NI. In 2016, NI exported 30% of its goods to Ireland. Ireland exported 1% (yes, that's right, one percent) of its goods to NI.