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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Paranoid Bob

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's already in the agreement. What do you think "Unless and until" was all about?

That's my point. The whole Brady amendment is entirely consistent with the Withdrawal Agreement as-is. That's why I say that we should enthusiastically embrace it. It gives May and the UK parliament something to crow about while giving up nothing at all.

charlie14

Paranoid Bob wrote: »

Yes. If, as the Brady amendment proposes, they want to replace the backstop with alternative arrangements then they will need to get those alternatives agreed.

So how is that going to be possible under this none binding Brady amendment when exactly the same has already been rejected by the hoc`s ?

J Mysterio

charlie14 wrote: »

Isn`t the Brady amendment practically irrelevant as it is only advisory, not binding ?

The Brexit ref was advisory...

Macy0161

Watching newsnight... Delusional is the word for all brexiters, and Emily Maitlis (and several other BBC reporters/ correspondents over the evening).

Leroy42

So lets play this out.

TM goes to the EU and convinces them to reopen the WA, EU doing so to try to avoid hard Brexit as the UK are incapable.
EU agree to remove the backstop but agree that NI should remain in the EU until at least a unification ref is undertaken in NI.
The UK will remain in The EU during this time as well, the UK limiting it to no later than mid 2021 to remain in the transition.

So TM has removed the backstop so clearly this will pass the Hoc. Everybody wins.

briany

Just had a quick look at the Brexit odds on PP. Still seems to be a bit of confidence that there won't be a no-deal and/or there will be a second referendum. Are these odds out of date, good value, or are the bookies just taking into consideration things that I am not, because right now I'm having a hard time seeing how no-deal is avoidable.

charlie14

J Mysterio wrote: »

The Brexit ref was advisory...

I wonder just how many now wish the had done with the advisory Brexit referendum what they are going to do with the Brady referendum. Ignore it.

redcup342

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Irish Government,
'' no room to move on '' back stop'' it's in deal and deal is not getting reopened, its there to avoid a hard border''

EU
'' Not reopening Brexit deal, it was agreed and signed by all parties, back stop remains to avoid hard border''

But how on earth can they both say this when a No Deal leads to a hard border.
Seems they have no choice, reopen Brexit deal, or it's no deal and a hard border !
Answer is obvious,, reopen deal and work back stop out so that everyone is happy, no one wants a hard border so it can't be difficult to agree something when all parties are on same page and want the same thing.

The Deal was agreed already, the issue is in the UK Government following through on the Deal they agreed to already.

They can extend Article 50 (as you said the EU doesn't want a Hard Brexit so it's likely a vote would go through)

That fact that they want a time limit on the backstop and this whole mess with how they've handled the whole negotiation would just mean we are kicking the can down the road

The UK is the equivalent of a basket case at this point, they don't know what they want and are dealing in ultimatums (agree to our deal or there will be a hard brexit)

If the EU goes back and reopens the already AGREED deal, whats to stop the UK negotiating for more concessions ?

Hurrache

Steve Bullock {former UK Negotiator with the EU) always has a good view.
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090384518211608576?s=19
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090388289436205056?s=19

Hurrache

Wtf let Eamon Dunphy onto the Tonight Show on TV3?

franglan

briany wrote: »

Just had a quick look at the Brexit odds on PP. Still seems to be a bit of confidence that there won't be a no-deal and/or there will be a second referendum. Are these odds out of date, good value, or are the bookies just taking into consideration things that I am not, because right now I'm having a hard time seeing how no-deal is avoidable.

No they will be very much live on PP and any other bookies.

Headshot

Hurrache wrote: »

Steve Bullock {former UK Negotiator with the EU) always has a good view.
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090384518211608576?s=19
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090388289436205056?s=19

I read his other post

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1090389048982675461

I'm not sure what those MP's can do?

Frank Bullitt

Stellar frontpage here.

franglan

Gintonious wrote: »

Stellar frontpage here.

Informally told not to come back at lunchtime.

Leroy42

Not to mention that Spain are not happy how Gibraltar was dealt with, France was not happy about the fishing, and I would wager a few countries were not happy with the UK wide CU.

View

Bit cynical wrote: »

That's why I said "seeming to" in parenthesis. The way it is normally phrased is that Ireland "has no plans" to erect the border but, of course, this is not the same as saying that we won't erect it.

In the end, if there's no deal, Ireland will build the border. We will be ordered to.

We won’t be ordered to do anything. Either we voluntarily comply with EU & WTO law or we are on a one-way ticket out of both organisations (and back into being utterly dependent on, not independent of, the UK).

And it is pointless to go on about “Ireland has no plans” as we are roughly ten weeks away from potentially needing to have a hard border in place.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1090395693708128256

This is a very interesting hot take on the tweet from a congressman earlier today!

Akrasia

View wrote: »

Nope, this kind of shyte is why we need to clearly state we will roll out the barbed wire after Brexit day, join Schengen and start making legal provisions for doing this.

It is precisely because we have given the impression that a hard border is completely unthinkable to us that Brexiters believe they can get away with this shyte. So long as they think we will do anything to avoid a hard border, they believe that we will eventually capitulate if they just prove awkward enough. To their mind, they don’t need to compromise if we are going to cave sooner or later to avoid a hard border.

We can't join Schengen because, Brexit or not, it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK, and that would be a disaster for Anglo Irish relations and the millions of Irish people who live in the UK, and the UK citizens living here.

Ireland, unlike the UK, wouldn't spitefully and unilaterally change the residency and free movement rights of millions of innocent people

Folkstonian

Akrasia wrote: »

We can't join Schengen because, Brexit or not, it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK, and that would be a disaster for Anglo Irish relations and the millions of Irish people who live in the UK, and the UK citizens living here.

Ireland, unlike the UK, wouldn't spitefully and unilaterally change the residency and free movement rights of millions of innocent people

You’d also need to make a fair few societal changes in the event that Ireland joined Schengen, too.

Most prominent that I can think of being that Ireland would be the only Schengen nation without a fully armed police service. The only reason that Britain and Ireland get away without every cop being armed at the moment is because the borders with the continent are not wide open. If they were, I dread to think how many of the firearms swirling around France and Eastern Europe would end up here

In saying that, I do think relations between england and Ireland are hanging on by a thread and it wouldn’t surprise me if there was pressure from pro Europe groups in Ireland to end the CTA and pivot towards schengen instead

Akrasia

downcow wrote: »

Just in and tried to quickly catch up on WM voting. Looks like a better night than I honestly expected.
Now at last it’s over to the EU. I will be very surprised if their position does not shift a little to meet the UK. Not for a while mind. I reckon it could still be a week or two before they begin to move publicly

And when you're finished being very surprised in two weeks after the EU still hasn't sold out Ireland or caved in to the Brexiteers, will you admit that maybe you've analysed the situation wrong?

View

briany wrote: »

If Ireland is going to get the same result whether pushing for a backstop or accepting border controls, then we may as well go with the option that is at least being seen to lean towards Irish interests, tries to safeguard the Peace Process and doesn't constitute a major U-turn. The GFA and Brexit aren't compatible, and there's no really great outcome for Ireland, save Britain cancelling the thing altogether, and that's something which is looking more and more and more unlikely.

“Irish interests” is in being fully onboard with out EU membership after the dust settles. We can’t and mustn’t end up half-in/half-out. Whether we like it or not, the reality is that the UKs decisions on Brexit will be decided by domestic UK politics and those, not out protestations, will shape any and all other UK international agreements including those relating to NI.

Akrasia

Gintonious wrote: »

Stellar frontpage here.

I don't know if it's that clever TBH. To the well informed, it shows that May is delusional and never had a chance of getting the EU to backtrack on what they've already made perfectly clear they would not backtrack on.

To the brexiteers, this is just more proof that the EU don't want to negotiate and that they don't care what the UK say, they're only out to punish them.

Get Real

Great diagram from @jonworth on Twitter here. Gives all (current/known) possibilities and their liklihoods

Joe_ Public

briany wrote: »

Just had a quick look at the Brexit odds on PP. Still seems to be a bit of confidence that there won't be a no-deal and/or there will be a second referendum. Are these odds out of date, good value, or are the bookies just taking into consideration things that I am not, because right now I'm having a hard time seeing how no-deal is avoidable.

One scenario I’ve seen posited several places is that even if a no deal happens it won’t take place before the end of march, they’d need to get a short extension to facilitate it, and under the terms of the bet, it would be a loser.

Hurrache

Gintonious wrote: »

This is a very interesting hot take on the tweet from a congressman earlier today!

Not sure how much power they yield, but it gets more interesting
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/resolution-opposing-hard-irish-border-introduced-in-us-congress-1.3775295

Members of the Irish-American caucus in the US Capital are watching events in London closely, and several have indicated that a return to a hard border in Ireland must be avoided at all costs.

In particular, Richard Neal, the Massachusetts Congressman who was centrally involved in the Good Friday Agreement and is the co-chairman of the Friends of Ireland caucus on Capitol Hill, has recently been appointed as head of the powerful Ways and Means committee. This committee will play a key role in overseeing any future trade agreement between Britain and the United States after Britain leaves the European Union.

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

Not sure how much power they yield, but it gets more interesting
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/resolution-opposing-hard-irish-border-introduced-in-us-congress-1.3775295

I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of the people on congress reacted with "What's a Brexit?"

Tell me how

Joe_ Public wrote: »

One scenario I’ve seen posited several places is that even if a no deal happens it won’t take place before the end of march, they’d need to get a short extension to facilitate it, and under the terms of the bet, it would be a loser.

Think this is the fallacy projected by Esther McVey and the likes who has suggested they go for the No deal and then negotiate terms during the transition period.

No Deal = No Transition Period

Hurrache

Tell me how wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised if 50% of the people on congress reacted with "What's a Brexit?"

Richard Neal does, and that's who the UK need to deal with.

View

Akrasia wrote: »

We can't join Schengen because, Brexit or not, it would mean the end of the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the UK, and that would be a disaster for Anglo Irish relations and the millions of Irish people who live in the UK, and the UK citizens living here.

Ireland, unlike the UK, wouldn't spitefully and unilaterally change the residency and free movement rights of millions of innocent people

Of course we can join Schengen. Schengen is a fundamental objective of the EU, clearly laid out in the treaties. (Or to be more specific, Schengen is laid out as the practiacal implementation of the objective).

It may once have made sense to have stayed out of Schengem initially when it was set up while we waited for the UK to get its act together and join it but that ship is well and truly sailing away with Brexit.

It does not make sense to suggest that, in let’s say twenty years after Brexit, we, as an EU member state, would be demanding the our fellow EU citizens produce passports at border controls as they enter Ireland, while non-EU British citizens with whom we would share no fellow citizenship, could waltz in and out of Ireland/the EU with no such checks. Equally the same would apply to residency rules/work visas etc. We would be clearly discriminating against our fellow EU citizens were we treat them less favourably than the citizens of a non-EU country.

Folkstonian

View wrote: »

Of course we can join Schengen. Schengen is a fundamental objective of the EU, clearly laid out in the treaties. (Or to be more specific, Schengen is laid out as the practiacal implementation of the objective).

It may once have made sense to have stayed out of Schengem initially when it was set up while we waited for the UK to get its act together and join it but that ship is well and truly sailing away with Brexit.

It does not make sense to suggest that, in let’s say twenty years after Brexit, we, as an EU member state, would be demanding the our fellow EU citizens produce passports at border controls as they enter Ireland, while non-EU British citizens with whom we would share no fellow citizenship, could waltz in and out of Ireland/the EU with no such checks. Equally the same would apply to residency rules/work visas etc. We would be clearly discriminating against our fellow EU citizens were we treat them less favourably than the citizens of a non-EU country.

But the Common Travel Area existed long before the EU.

I suppose it will come down to whether Irish voters would prefer to ‘waltz’ in and out of Britain as they can now, free to live, work, study, holiday etc without any frictions, or forego that right in favour of not showing a passport at the airport when they travel to Europe.