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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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branie2

How many more amendments are there?

[Deleted User]

Rachel Reeves amendment up next. Government to seek an extension of Article 50 if a deal has not been passed in the Commons by 26 February. Not a legally binding option though.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does anyone think that the EU will blink first here?

I reckon NO, on the first round anyway, but who knows after that. There is a lot at stake.

It kind of sticks in the craw that the arrogance of the British might just win out here, but as long as the border issues and the economy is ok, should we just take it on the chin?

I am on the fence here. A hard border is not ideal. But being a border between a third country and the EU, what can be done since May stated her Red lines.

Maybe the EU could convince May to soften her Red Lines somewhat. After all, that is what led to the fekkin Backstop in the first place.

There has to be some compromise surely.

Have you paid the blindest bit of notice of the last week?

Literally the post above yours says that Macron has told them to STFU.

The EU won't be blinking.

boggerman1

Ronan|Raven wrote: »

Listening to Raab is almost enough make you to tear your eyes out in frustrstion.

He's on sky now grinning and snearing and talking bulls!!t.hard brexit a reality now?

joe40

So much for parliament taking control. That is mind boggling

murphaph

Water John wrote: »

Have no problem with the traditions of any Parliament. These are systems by which all those involved know the process.

Yeah but this division carry on is so inefficient. The Dáil got rid of it years ago. A simple electronic voting system might not have all the pomp and circumstance of this ancient method but parliament is there to pass legislation.

It points to their attachment with old but often outdated principles. FPTP being the most obvious one.

An Ciarraioch

Sigh - Brady is going to pass, isn't it?

Ronan|Raven

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Cooper amendment defeated by 321 to 298. Hard Brexit risk growing. Was Corbyn's amendment voted on yet?

Yes. Defeated.

[Deleted User]

Cooper amendment defeated by 321 to 298. Hard Brexit risk growing. Was Corbyn's amendment voted on yet?

Kiith

No's have it (Cooper amendment).

Ronan|Raven

Listening to Raab is almost enough make you to tear your eyes out in frustrstion.

Water John

Have no problem with the traditions of any Parliament. These are systems by which all those involved know the process.

UsBus

I's to the left
No's to the right
Division
Unlock...
What a bunch of absolute bellends..let them crash out.... superiority complex won't be long going..

Capt'n Midnight

BBC news talking about repeating this all again on Feb 13th

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47036591

"The only reason there's still relative calm in EU circles about a no-deal Brexit is because we still have the popcorn out," one EU diplomat told me.

prawnsambo

Akrasia wrote: »

The funny thing is that the most hardline brexiteers think that the EU always fold at the last second so they'll continue to push it until its too late to do anything except withdraw A50.

Their pigheaded arrogance will cause them to forfeit the only opportunity they'll ever have to drag the UK out of the EU

Reading your post, I had the amusing thought of literally at the eleventh hour, MPs rushing through the lobbies to vote for a revocation of article 50 and the tallies called for the Ayes as the clock strikes eleven on the 29th March and everyone breathing a sigh of relief.

Only to be told that the revocation had to reach Brussels by that time.

10000maniacs

If the Grieve amendment was a pointer to how the Cooper amendment was going to fare, Cooper is in trouble. Labour not going with the whip. Looks like a hard Brexit now.

murphaph

Bambi wrote: »

Might be a late for that, what was that Claire Byrne poll this week? 85% support for a United Ireland in the event of a hard Brexit?

As much as certain parties might wish, that whole debate is not going to sit happily on the back burner until they decide to address it

"Events, dear boy, events."

Have to agree with you there. I'd never have voted for a UI unless I was convinced of solid unionist buy in (would want to see 50%+ in favour) but given a choice of hard border or UI with less than that level of unionist support I would vote for a UI. There should never be a hard border in Ireland and if a UI is the only way to prevent that then so be it.

I would feel less sympathy than I might for unionists in that scenario as they made up the vast bulk of NI voters who supported this blasted Brexit.

These unionists who voted for Brexit threw the GFA in the faces of their nationalist neighbours in doing so.

Enzokk

Grieve amendment result -

Yes - 301
No - 321

It fails by 20 votes.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1090334394391453706

The Cooper amendment is being voted on now.

Akrasia

The funny thing is that the most hardline brexiteers think that the EU always fold at the last second so they'll continue to push it until its too late to do anything except withdraw A50.

Their pigheaded arrogance will cause them to forfeit the only opportunity they'll ever have to drag the UK out of the EU

Irishmale0399

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There is a strong desire to believe that the EU won't let a hard brexit happen if an even somewhat reasonable path to avoiding it can be presented. They really don't want to face the idea that the EU is willing and able to cut them loose without a deal if push comes to shove.

No harm in talking or alterations as long as they don't change anything of substance. At this stage, merely allowing an alteration could be sold as a concession without having to offer anything substantial. The EU should just offer an "alternative backstop" which is really just the same backstop and leave it at that. Put the ball back in the UK court and let them decide if they really want a no-deal disaster.

Wait...the UK Government went to Brussels to negotiate the deal. They took it home to have it voted on and they kicked it out. That is not the EUs problem....why didnt the UK government consult the HOC before going to Brussels.

There is no need to alter anything. The EU put the deal on the table and seem to have wasted millions of EU tax payers money doing so....it is not the fault of the EU that the UK fecked it up. If the EU doesnt stay hard within a short period of time other countries will be also leaving expecting a soft passage. The EU have been doing great so far...and have to do better by telling the UK off you go.

Hurrache

For those wondering if the EU are cracking, you've heard what they said this morning and yesterday, just saw what Macron said, are aware that the EU have a prepared No statement for tonight, and this.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1090320046654660609?s=19

FrancieBrady

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does anyone think that the EU will blink first here?

I reckon NO, on the first round anyway, but who knows after that. There is a lot at stake.

It kind of sticks in the craw that the arrogance of the British might just win out here, but as long as the border issues and the economy is ok, should we just take it on the chin?

I am on the fence here. A hard border is not ideal. But being a border between a third country and the EU, what can be done since May stated her Red lines.

Maybe the EU could convince May to soften her Red Lines somewhat. After all, that is what led to the fekkin Backstop in the first place.

There has to be some compromise surely.

Depends on how strong Leo is willing to be. His hour is approaching.

Imreoir2

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Lads and ladies....do these people in WM listen to what the EU say??? Or do they feel that they can walk back into Brussels and tell them this is the deal...listen we agreed one with you but we dont like it anymore. Its this or nothing.

At this point the EU should be telling them to get ready for a hard Brexit....no more talking or alterations.

There is a strong desire to believe that the EU won't let a hard brexit happen if an even somewhat reasonable path to avoiding it can be presented. They really don't want to face the idea that the EU is willing and able to cut them loose without a deal if push comes to shove.

No harm in talking or alterations as long as they don't change anything of substance. At this stage, merely allowing an alteration could be sold as a concession without having to offer anything substantial. The EU should just offer an "alternative backstop" which is really just the same backstop and leave it at that. Put the ball back in the UK court and let them decide if they really want a no-deal disaster.

Hurrache

JRM saying they're backing the Reid amendment as it removes the backstop and gives the mandate to go back to the EU to tell them to think again.

JRM says the alternative arrangements are the ones from their"Better Plan" from December. I remember it was a crock at the time.

So May letting the ERG put their feet under the table.

Kiith

JRM talking about experts getting things wrong...while getting pretty much everything he said wrong.

An Ciarraioch

Now time for the first major vote of the night, probably a narrow defeat, but won't be much in it either way.

Irishmale0399

Bambi wrote: »

The Brits are going to try go over Junkers head, back to individual countries, back to MEPs and so forth

Thats exactly why the EU should be telling them its too little too late. Out they go...hard Brexit and they will be begging the EU for trade deals etc.

Spanish Eyes

Does anyone think that the EU will blink first here?

I reckon NO, on the first round anyway, but who knows after that. There is a lot at stake.

It kind of sticks in the craw that the arrogance of the British might just win out here, but as long as the border issues and the economy is ok, should we just take it on the chin?

I am on the fence here. A hard border is not ideal. But being a border between a third country and the EU, what can be done since May stated her Red lines.

Maybe the EU could convince May to soften her Red Lines somewhat. After all, that is what led to the fekkin Backstop in the first place.

There has to be some compromise surely.

Dyr

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Lads and ladies....do these people in WM listen to what the EU say??? Or do they feel that they can walk back into Brussels and tell them this is the deal...listen we agreed one with you but we dont like it anymore. Its this or nothing.

At this point the EU should be telling them to get ready for a hard Brexit....no more talking or alterations.

The Brits are going to try go over Junkers head, back to individual countries, back to MEPs and so forth

Hurrache

France joins the list telling them they're wasting their ****ing time.
https://twitter.com/BreakingF24/status/1090315040001994752?s=19