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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

If the UK parliament is stupid enough to try to amend the backstop, and the EU is then stupid enough to agree to any changes then one point about the EU that Brexiteers have been parroting will become true. The EU would be finished.

Exactly. The EU would be seen as weak and open to exploitation from within and without.

Hurrache

May in the commons has said she wants to go back to Brussels to negotiate a deal based on what the house want.

She said she'll bring back a revised deal for a second meaningful vote as soon as she can.

She's going all balls out looking to renegotiate with the EU.

Beechwoodspark

Hurrache wrote: »

May in the commons has said she wants to go back to Brussels to negotiate a deal based on what the house want. Eh, you already done that, over almost 2 years.

She said she'll bring back a revised deal for a second meaningful vote as soon as she can.

Be some craic if Brussels just announce don’t bother flying over love, the deal is not gonna be reopened

EdgeCase

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Be some craic if Brussels just announce don’t bother flying over love, the deal is not gonna be reopened

That's more or less what the deputy negotiator said yesterday. She didn't quite word it that way but the message was about as blunt as you could possibly make it.

FrancieBrady

Adamcp898 wrote: »

A lot of this thread is people trying to have a go for the sake of it. Some of it in the age old United Ireland, Republican vs. Unionist tired format. Only unfortunately a lot of it reads like they're painfully unaware of how indiscriminate the fallout from this is going to be, no matter where they feel they stand.

.

Beggars belief how this cannot be seen as one of the fundamental problems with the partition of this island.

It may have happened 100 years ago but it's effects are still with us and still profound.
We found a way to take the 'conflict and violence' out of it, but now we have Westminster and a belligerent single party, toying with it in the crazy belief that it will do no harm.

Of course any genuine Irish person is going to be angry about that.

BonnieSituation

Hurrache wrote: »

So even with all the hype that the party is starting to come together, it's under the knowledge they actually know they're doomed to failure, it's theatrics.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1090228993155100672

"...a cabinet source tells me..."

Why do all these reporters need sources to tell us the obvious?

We ALL have known this. It's beyond mindnumbing at this stage.

EdgeCase

BonnieSituation wrote: »

"...a cabinet source tells me..."

Why do all these reporters need sources to tell us the obvious?

We ALL have known this. It's beyond mindnumbing at this stage.

To be fair to Beth Rigby, she's by far one of the better political correspondents in the UK at the moment.

Seth Brundle

The EU are ready for the Brady nonsense...
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1090244783354851329

Hurrache

Unfortunately it's May's plan now, she has said in parliament she's going to go back to the EU to ask them to reopen the negotiations.

So we have the hilarious situation of May, Rabb, Davis and whoever else were on the team voting against a deal that they bloody negotiated in the first place.

Who the hell will want to negotiate with, and trust, these clowns in their brave new world of trade agreements?

WomanSkirtFan8

Hurrache wrote: »

Unfortunately it's May's plan now, she has said in parliament she's going to go back to the EU to ask them to reopen the negotiations.

So we have the hilarious situation of May, Rabb, Davis and whoever else were on the team voting against a deal that they bloody negotiated in the first place.

Why the hell would she ever bother when she already knows the EU are going to say no to whatever she proposes? The deal that's already been agreed is the only deal the eu will agree to and must include the backstop (if it's ever actually needed) and that's it.

TM going back to brussels is absolutely pointless.:rolleyes:

ilovesmybrick

Hurrache wrote: »

Unfortunately it's May's plan now, she has said in parliament she's going to go back to the EU to ask them to reopen the negotiations.

So we have the hilarious situation of May, Rabb, Davis and whoever else were on the team voting against a deal that they bloody negotiated in the first place.

Well it's just as surreal as the Tories voting to retain May before Christmas shortly after voting against her deal and calling for a no confidence vote.

She's currently suggesting a "significant and legally binding change", which will then be debated in commons, despite everyone telling them repeatedly that it won't happen. The sheer amount of time wasted in commons on changes they know won't pass over the past two years is staggering.

Strazdas

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The EU are ready for the Brady nonsense...
https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1090244783354851329

It would simply too dangerous for them to reopen negotiations. They are dealing with a political basket case, an unstable country. If they reopened the deal and made even more concessions, the risk of it blowing up in their face would be huge (ie. they make big concessions, sign off on a new deal and within a week or two, things start kicking off in the UK again and Brexiteers demanding more concessions).

Professor Moriarty

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Why the hell would she ever bother when she already knows the EU are going to say no to whatever she proposes? The deal that's already been agreed is the only deal the eu will agree to and must include the backstop (if it's ever actually needed) and that's it.

TM going back to brussels is absolutely pointless.:rolleyes:

Always look at this in the context of Tory unity. That is the core motivation in everything May is doing.

woohoo!!!

Two plus years of groundhog day. No point in further negotiations with that.

Professor Moriarty

An extremely important question asked by Tory MP Peter Bone. Essentially, he asked that if he backs the Brady amendment, does that mean he is committed to voting for any new deal that May brings back? She answers "No". So, this means that what May brings to Europe over the next few days MIGHT be what parliament wants. It's actually becoming insulting to the EU at this stage.

Skelet0n

Sammy Wilson up in the HoC saying that Barnier has said the EU want technology to solve the border so “we must press this opportunity”.

How that man manages to tie his laces every morning is beyond me.

Leonard Hofstadter

Thought this was worth posting from the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/29/brexit-vote-commons-latest-news-developments-liam-fox-says-may-now-saying-withdrawal-deal-text-must-be-rewritten-politics-live

Basically, if in the hypothetical situation that the EU were to accept the Brady amendment (which we already know they won't) and they were to renegotiate the deal, Brexiter MPs (or MPs of any persuasion) don't have to vote on any hypothetical final deal.

I mean, you really couldn't make this nonsense up.

WomanSkirtFan8

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Always look at this in the context of Tory unity. That is the core motivation in everything May is doing.

Absolutely. no arguments there. :rolleyes:

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

An extremely important question asked by Tory MP Peter Bone. Essentially, he asked that if he backs the Brady amendment, does that mean he is committed to voting for any new deal that May brings back? She answers "No". So, this means that what May brings to Europe over the next few days MIGHT be what parliament wants. It's actually becoming insulting to the EU at this stage.

The best thing the EU can do is simply keep out of this. What goes on in the UK Parliament is no concern of theirs : they have already signed off on the agreement.

trellheim

Link to Order of Business - contains all the motions for debate this evening

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190129.pdf

The Brady Amendment

Sir Graham Brady
Dr Andrew Murrison
Damian Green
Mr Charles Walker
Dame Cheryl Gillan
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown

At end, add “and requires the Northern Ireland backstop to be replaced with
alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border; supports leaving the European
Union with a deal and would therefore support the Withdrawal Agreement subject to
this change.”.

Amendment (n)

CelticRambler

EdgeCase wrote: »

I get the impression the UK side is completely out of it depth and negotiating with itself in the Westminster and tabloid newspaper bubble again.

Hurrache wrote: »

Who the hell will want to negotiate with, and trust, these clowns in their brave new world of trade agreements?

Back in the mists of time, shortly after the ref result was announced, it was pointed out that because of 40 years of EEC/EU membership, Britain had no recent experience of serious solo negotiations on the world stage. We're seeing that point illustrated now in glorious Technicolor and Dolby surround sound. While it makes for a wonderful spectacle, it doesn't bode well for the many similar negotiations ahead.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

The best thing the EU can do is simply keep out of this. What goes on in the UK Parliament is no concern of theirs : they have already signed off on the agreement.

They also seem to be utterly oblivious to damage being done to their image as a stable country with a stable democracy. Any potential investor looking at Britain over the past two years will simply throw their eyes to heaven and move on - especially any European investor.

Strazdas

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They also seem to be utterly oblivious to damage being done to their image as a stable country with a stable democracy. Any potential investor looking at Britain over the past two years will simply throw their eyes to heaven and move on - especially any European investor.

Indeed and I don't see any obvious way they can undo the huge PR damage of Brexit. Every Brexit outcome looks a terrible one......they're nearly three years after that blasted referendum and have burned a lot of bridges.

ilovesmybrick

CelticRambler wrote: »

Back in the mists of time, shortly after the ref result was announced, it was pointed out that because of 40 years of EEC/EU membership, Britain had no recent experience of serious solo negotiations on the world stage. We're seeing that point illustrated now in glorious Technicolor and Dolby surround sound. While it makes for a wonderful spectacle, it doesn't bode well for the many similar negotiations ahead.

And this is the easy part. Never mind trying to negotiate free trade deals with the EU after whatever happens on March 29th, imagine this government trying to negotiate with the US or China?

Winters

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

And this is the easy part. Never mind trying to negotiate free trade deals with the EU after whatever happens on March 29th, imagine this government trying to negotiate with the US or China?

if I understand correctly the USA would not be allowed by its own Senate to negotiate with the UK if it breaks the Good Friday Agreement.

Dyr

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Be some craic if Brussels just announce don’t bother flying over love, the deal is not gonna be reopened

It's becoming like the scene in The Holy Grail where King Arthur rocks up to the Norman castle and gets told to do one.

Crossed with Groundhog day.

How many more times is she going to try pull this stunt. How can a Leader have any credibility at this stage? There are some countries where the monarchy or judiciary or even the military would have stepped in by now and taken the toys away from parliament.

ilovesmybrick

Winters wrote: »

if I understand correctly the USA would not be allowed by its own Senate to negotiate with the UK if it breaks the Good Friday Agreement.

I'm not sure about that, but Tony Connolly was making the point on Brexit Republic last week that any semblance of a border would cause Irish American senators to have serious problems with negotiating with the UK.

Enzokk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Always look at this in the context of Tory unity. That is the core motivation in everything May is doing.

I guess there goes the notion of working together with other parties in the HoC. Did she take one thing on board from any of the opposition parties other than the DUP?

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

I guess there goes the notion of working together with other parties in the HoC. Did she take one thing on board from any of the opposition parties other than the DUP?

Nothing at all. At this stage, she is the DUP/ERG's glove puppet. They couldn't be having Labour ideas about the place. Nevermind that dreadful Sturgeon woman.

franglan

The great barometer of what's actually happening - the bookies! The UK to leave EU on 30th March without a deal is now 4/1 with Paddy Power. Has to be value in that you would think? I don't see the 1/8 that they leave with a deal...? I would have had a no deal brexit as marginal favourite at this point.