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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Water John

Yeah, the're all agreeing to reopen the WA, complete la la land.

VinLieger

lawred2 wrote: »

She's actively negotiating against her own negotiations

Perfidious Albion

Tell me how

lawred2 wrote: »

She's actively negotiating against her own negotiations

Without being mean - is she senile?

No. Definitely not. To be fair to her. This is a mammoth clusterf*ck of a task since day 1 and probably no one could have done it differently without alienating this group or that group.

A PM could have not introduced the red lines and suggested staying in CU for example and breixteers could have agitated to remove them. May was threading a thin line of trying to get something practical, while maintaining power and she has managed to do that though largely, for a long time, because it was too much of a sh*tshow for any of the loud voices to want to take on.

Her single biggest mistake (amongst many) was quite possibly calling the General election to give her a greater majority, though, not many at the time said it was a bad move politically (outside of rushing a GE through during negotiations).

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Perfidious Albion

Have they passed go and proceeded directly to rogue state?

Whatever else they do, if this succeeds it will have set a new precedent in international relationships, as I cannot think of another so called trusted state behaving this way.

Adamcp898

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1090199460892864512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1090199460892864512&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-47030804

"What's your evidence that the conservative party are rallying?"

"We have a Whatsapp group....."

rusty the athlete

So the Brady amendment seems likely to pass even if a reopening of the agreement has been firmly rejected by the EU. So a hard brexit is inevitable on Mar 29, not great news one would have thought for sterling. The Cooper amendment, which would be positive for sterling, is likely to fail. So its still HB on March 29th.

Yet the GBP/EUR forex rate is almost 5% above last september's low and has surged, relatively speaking, these past few days.

What the heck is going on ? Im totally confused.

Shelga

VinLieger wrote: »

I will never understand why she rushed on A50

To be fair to May, and I can’t stand her, my memory of this time is that the media was strongly pushing the line that the EU would completely refuse to engage until article 50 was triggered.

The fact that she capitulated to this pressure is clearly regrettable now.

59 days to go.

Infini

rusty the athlete wrote: »

So the Brady amendment seems likely to pass even if a reopening of the agreement has been firmly rejected by the EU. So a hard brexit is inevitable on Mar 29, not great news one would have thought for sterling. The Cooper amendment, which would be positive for sterling, is likely to fail. So its still HB on March 29th.

Yet the GBP/EUR forex rate is almost 5% above last september's low and has surged, relatively speaking, these past few days.

What the heck is going on ? Im totally confused.

I would wait a bit on this. Theres still 2 months to go and until they pass the point of no return they have the chance of turning this around. Expect things to get volatile though come March becauss thats when we enter the grand finale of all this.

Professor Moriarty

rusty the athlete wrote: »

So the Brady amendment seems likely to pass even if a reopening of the agreement has been firmly rejected by the EU. So a hard brexit is inevitable on Mar 29, not great news one would have thought for sterling. The Cooper amendment, which would be positive for sterling, is likely to fail. So its still HB on March 29th.

Yet the GBP/EUR forex rate is almost 5% above last september's low and has surged, relatively speaking, these past few days.

What the heck is going on ? Im totally confused.

There is an expectation in the markets now that a hard Brexit won't happen.

Professor Moriarty

Enzokk wrote: »

Ian Dunt has this to say about the amendment.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1090220520027627521

"And that's it. That's the plan. Lying about transition, before changing a withdrawal agreement your partner refuses to reopen, in order to solve the backstop problem with something which is not a backstop, and then threatening to renege on your legal commitments and defending yourself with a mythical interpretation of international law. That's their compromise agreement."

It's all about preventing the break up of the Tory party. Party before country always.

AtomicHorror

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is an expectation in the markets now that a hard Brexit won't happen.

They made the same bet on referendum night too.

Infini

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's all about preventing the break up of the Tory party. Party before country always.

It would be no small irony if this foolisness leads to them being politically eviserated down the line for pursuing such a braindead policy of self destruction. Blaming the EU wont work very long if they crash.

Chips Lovell

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Professor Moriarty

Infini wrote: »

It would be no small irony if this foolisness leads to them being politically eviserated down the line for pursuing such a braindead policy of self destruction. Blaming the EU wont work very long if they crash.

Dunno. There is quite a deep jingoistic/anti European streak running through large swathes of the British people. Plus their press will tell them what to think and we've seen how that's working out.

Hurrache

VinLieger wrote: »

So May has succeeded in rallying enough votes to vote against her own negotiated and signed off on backstop..... so shes just going for anything that will get her a notch in the win column as far as HOC votes go.

lawred2 wrote: »

She's actively negotiating against her own negotiations

Without being mean - is she senile?

It's actually better than this. The Malthouse 'compromise' came from the ERG. May is whipping the party for the Brady amendment. So they're still not even on the same page yet!

Foster again pushing their fantasy that the EU and Ireland are panicking.

If the Prime Minister is seeking to find a united front, both between elements in her own party and the DUP, in the negotiations which she will enter with the European Union, then this is a proposition which she should not turn her back on.

There is no better time to advance this alternative given the confusion and disarray which is now manifesting itself in Brussels. This has been displayed both by the contradictory EU statements and the panic-stricken behaviour of the Irish Government,

Foster is talking about the Malthouse amendment here.

Akrasia

VinLieger wrote: »

So May has succeeded in rallying enough votes to vote against her own negotiated and signed off on backstop..... so shes just going for anything that will get her a notch in the win column as far as HOC votes go.

I don't think May/Brady will pass this amendment TBH. Yvette Cooper's amendment has some Tory support, so even if she hasn't the numbers to get her proposal through due to some Labour MPs opposing it, as long as more than 10 Tories vote against the Brady amendment they'll cancel out the DUP.

If any Labour MPs vote in favour of the Brady amendment, they should lose the whip immediately.

Theresa May might be safe as the leader of the Tory party until after Brexit, she is still a lame duck, in that she has already 'promised' that she will step down after brexit so when it comes to career Tory party backbenchers looking to secure promotion, at least some of them might bet that being seen to oppose No deal is in their strategic self interest and supporting Brady makes No Deal much more likely.

Beechwoodspark

It’s quite ridiculous.

Tory MPs with the DUP in tow are debating among themselves about what they want - and they seem to think when May arrives back in Brussels for the umpteenth time that the Eu will say “oh ok then”.

Am I missing something?

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Dunno. There is quite a deep jingoistic/anti European streak running through large swathes of the British people. Plus their press will tell them what to think and we've seen how that's working out.

Who cares?

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

Who cares?

The British public should.

Hurrache

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

It’s quite ridiculous.

Tory MPs with the DUP in tow are debating among themselves about what they want - and they seem to think when May arrives back in Brussels for the umpteenth time that the Eu will say “oh ok then”.

Am I missing something?

Maybe she's going to ask quite forcefully this time?
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1090225045153157121

The farce gets farcier.

Macy0161

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Am I missing something?

Yeah, the apparent panic here and in Brussels!

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

Foster again pushing their fantasy that the EU and Ireland are panicking.

When we would have been studying history in school and a statement might be written about how one side urged their leaders/army to take advantage of the panic and confusion in the opposition ranks we would have believed that it was so.

However, this shows that at least in the 21st century, for some it has nothing to do with what the opposition is actually doing. I'd love to see some political scientists or psychologists analyse such of the extreme statements which we have heard from the likes of Foster, Sammy Wilson, Rees-Mogg.

I wonder are they;
Deliberate mistruths aimed at the ears of their supporters.
Calculated mistruths with the knoweledge that few who hear them will analyse them for veracity.
Evidence that they have a delusional belief that what they are saying is true.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

The British public should.

That's up to them. Nobody else gives much of a toss what they think or who they want to blame.

Akrasia

Hurrache wrote: »

It's actually better than this. The Malthouse 'compromise' came from the ERG. May is whipping the party for the Brady amendment. So they're still not even on the same page yet!

Foster again pushing their fantasy that the EU and Ireland are panicking.

Foster is talking about the Malthouse amendment here.

The 'Malthouse 'compromise' seems to involve passing the Brady Amendment and then tacking on an extension to the withdrawal period and something about a 'managed no deal' as a plan B

It's utterly daft and the EU won't agree to it.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

Foster again pushing their fantasy that the EU and Ireland are panicking.

I think the DUP press office may not have heard of the internet. Their spinning or amateur-hour attempts at controlling the narrative is straight out of 1950's one channel-one newspaper land.
This follows: there was never a hard border/republicans totally responsible for the conflict etc mouthfuls recently.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

That's up to them. Nobody else gives much of a toss what they think or who they want to blame.

True - except that their blinkered world view impacts us.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

True - except that their blinkered world view impacts us.

And we are getting on with dealing with it.

RobMc59

Labour apparently backing the Yvette Cooper "No deal removal"is a good move.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

And we are getting on with dealing with it.

In as much as we can. Whatever happens, it won't be a positive for us.

seamus

rusty the athlete wrote: »

What the heck is going on ? Im totally confused.

Sterling currency markets saw a small rally (3.6%) for two weeks starting around the 12/13th, when it became clear that the WA would be voted down - seen as a belief that cancelling Brexit was the most likely outcome.

It continued improving until the end of last week. When the market opened yesterday, Sterling began to slide again and is still sliding slowly overall, as it becomes clear that a no-deal Brexit is a real possibility because apparently nobody in Westminster is capable of stopping it.