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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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A Dub in Glasgo

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's an interesting conundrum if such an amendment got the deal over the line in the HoC. Because it would not be agreed to by the EU, so then what happens? Parliament has approved an undeliverable treaty which means (imo) crash out.

The chances are that the UK are attempting to put 'their amendments' back to the EU and try and pin the blame for crash out on the EU

Seth Brundle

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The chances are that the UK are attempting to put 'their amendments' back to the EU and try and pin the blame for crash out on the EU

I've a feeling that the EU won't be taken by surprise here!

Irishmale0399

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I've a feeling that the EU won't be taken by surprise here!

The question is if anyone in Brussels/Strassburg has the balls to tell them to go for a long walk.....

An Ciarraioch

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The question is if anyone in Brussels/Strassburg has the balls to tell them to go for a long walk.....

Arguably, Sabine Weyand already did today.

ilovesmybrick

Hurrache wrote:

May is aiming for February the 13th for the next meaningful vote.

When's the one after that, March 28th? This is utter absurdity. How many "meaningful" votes do they need before the concept loses all meaning?

Harry Palmr

Just watching Andrew Bridgen MP (and member of the ERG) on Channel 4 news, he does have history as someone with little grasp of anything and once again I'm prompted to wonder is there a single Brexiteer who understands GATT and WTO rules? and whether they are actually applicable in any event.

"We won't be crashing out we'd be cashing in, we can leave on WTO and offer, under GATT article 24 5c free trade agreement talks which would allow up to 10 years tariff free and quota free trading."

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/12/27/myth-of-10-year-grace-period/

Mind you reading about GATT and WTO is hard work!

The other thing that's bugging me is this saw about how EU related deals always go to the last minute and then there's an agreement, increasingly it feels like whistling past the graveyard.

An Ciarraioch

House of Lords votes 2:1 to approve a motion calling on the Government to rule out no deal:

http://twitter.com/ParlyApp/status/1089975305270448128

Kermit.de.frog

Just read this blog post. Breathtaking ignorance within the tory ranks.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-simple-and-logical-solution-is-for-eire-to-leave-the-eu-too/

A WTO Brexit is potentially a significant problem for Eire, as we’re their biggest market and most of their exports pass through the UK. (We also provide their air defence, finance and lots of other stuff.) A wiser Taoiseach would be going to Brussels to solve the challenges of Brexit, rather than creating new and spurious ones in conversation with Bloomberg.

Where the hell does this nonsense come from?

lawred2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just read this blog post. Breathtaking ignorance within the tory ranks.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-simple-and-logical-solution-is-for-eire-to-leave-the-eu-too/

Where the hell does this nonsense come from?

well the other stuff is definitely the most critical

thing is - it just doesn't matter. If people don't already think that that's the case - they'll read that and believe it to be the case.

the politicians are no higher being - they are of and reflect their electorate - ignorant begets ignorant. Ultimately what we are seeing is base nationalism in its ugliest most ill informed guise. British society is largely becoming a xenophobic cesspit. And the contents of the pit are being emboldened on a daily basis.

I suppose it always was a xenophobic cesspit. It just tried to hide it for a while.

fly_agaric

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just read this blog post. Breathtaking ignorance within the tory ranks.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-simple-and-logical-solution-is-for-eire-to-leave-the-eu-too/

A WTO Brexit is potentially a significant problem for Eire, as we’re their biggest market and most of their exports pass through the UK. (We also provide their air defence, finance and lots of other stuff.) A wiser Taoiseach would be going to Brussels to solve the challenges of Brexit, rather than creating new and spurious ones in conversation with Bloomberg.

Where the hell does this nonsense come from?

I'd rather not know! The air defence things is correct though isn't it...
One line (of many) I noticed was funny:

The alignment of the Irish border is so absurd...

shure isn't that due to those Irish begorrah, the poor fools were probably too drunk to even draw a straight line on a map correctly!

To be honest though I'd rather not be Irish in the UK if hard brexit goes down and is the disaster expected. There will be no self reflection from these sorts (Tory Brexit true believers); the treacherous Irish who stabbed them in the back and spoiled the glorious Brexit will probably be a handy magnet for more of the hate and anger than the EU. Could be nasty (shades of the 70s or 80s when the IRA was busy carrying out bomb attacks).

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1089946126554484736

What???

She's offering the UK a mystery box as a solution to crashing out of the EU

sandbelter

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The chances are that the UK are attempting to put 'their amendments' back to the EU and try and pin the blame for crash out on the EU

Ever since the Brexit vote I have always sensed this was the agenda.

ERG and the bedlam wing have played a effective guerrilla warfare to ensure that the isn't gone, but that it leaves so much smoldering wreckage that the UK can't return.

Leonard Hofstadter

One of the main contributers to that site is originally from Balbriggan, makes it all the more astonishing.

brickster69

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Just read this blog post. Breathtaking ignorance within the tory ranks.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-simple-and-logical-solution-is-for-eire-to-leave-the-eu-too/

Where the hell does this nonsense come from?

The UK does protect Ireland's airspace. Has done for some time, and acted on it against USSR bombers.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-air-force-asked-defend-ireland/

Akrasia

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK does protect Ireland's airspace. Has done for some time, and acted on it against USSR bombers.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-air-force-asked-defend-ireland/

Yeah, but they're not doing it cause they think we're sound lads, they patrol Irish airspace because any threats that approach the UK over Ireland would already be over the UK before the RAF could intercept them if they waited. They do it for their own defense, not just ours

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK does protect Ireland's airspace. Has done for some time, and acted on it against USSR bombers.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-air-force-asked-defend-ireland/

Nice and all as that was of them, this was done at their own request. Because we don't have the capability, this poses a danger to Britain. And the USSR kinda went over the edge of the world a while ago.

Enzokk

Ian Dunt has an update on what has happened earlier today. I think it sums up where we are in Brexit quite nicely.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1089983258991964160

"So May is now whipping her MPs to undermine her own deal. And looks set to lose anyway.

And the Labour leadership looks set to deny support to an amendment which does exactly what it demanded the prime minister do last week.

This is a historic period of failure for politicians. I've never seen such a shower in my f---ing life.

I've been on stag does with more dignity and strategic intelligence."

There is also a vote tonight on the Government's Immigration Bill and it seems that Labour wasn't going to vote against it. After some rumblings they have finally come out to whip against it, but is seems only a 1 line whip. This means those that are in the HoC are to vote against it. A 3 line whip means MPs has to stay and vote against it. The vote is around 10pm so we will see what happens.

https://twitter.com/ChrisLeslieMP/status/1089965094438690821

Water John

Let's hope there might be some light tomorrow. One feels Lb, others and some Conservatives will have to veto Brexit, to stop a calamity for the citizens of the UK as deadline looms.

RobMc59

Water John wrote: »

Let's hope there might be some light tomorrow. One feels Lb, others and some Conservatives will have to veto Brexit, to stop a calamity for the citizens of the UK as deadline looms.

The tories are destroying Britain-watching inside Europe now -the arrogance of them is breathtaking!

prawnsambo

RobMc59 wrote: »

The tories are destroying Britain-watching inside Europe now -the arrogance of them is breathtaking!

I'm not convinced that Labour's tactic of trying to put out the fire with petrol is working either.

Leroy42

So TM is now telling the Tory MP's to vote for an amendment which would tell her to ditch the backstop, a backstop she negotiated and told them all was absolutely necessary?

And armed with this, she will go back to the EU to say that despite the previous 18 months when she agreed the backstop what she really meant was that she didn't.

So she has basically asked her own party to vote down the deal as it stands!

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So TM is now telling the Tory MP's to vote for an amendment which would tell her to ditch the backstop, a backstop she negotiated and told them all was absolutely necessary?

And armed with this, she will go back to the EU to say that despite the previous 18 months when she agreed the backstop what she really meant was that she didn't.

So she has basically asked her own party to vote down the deal as it stands!

If they do that, it's pretty much curtains for any further engagement.

Can't see the UK being treated as anything other than persona non grata post Brexit.

Easy trade deals..

Havin a giraffe m8

Water John

Peston says Tory MPs have said to him they have lost all faith in TM.

murphaph

Water John wrote: »

Peston says Tory MPs have said to him they have lost all faith in TM.

In the last 2 weeks?

Water John

It's now from all sides in the Tory party. The Brady amendment has no hope of passing in the HOC not to mind taking it to the EU.

Hurrache

RobMc59 wrote: »

The tories are destroying Britain-watching inside Europe now -the arrogance of them is breathtaking!

Their sole purpose, then and now, seems to be all about just keeping Labour from government, at any expense.

trellheim

At this stage the rest of us are looking on and going is there anything AT ALL that would get a majority in the HoC ? ( Bar no confidence votes )

Its like that Rick and Morty get Schwifty "show me what you got" its that poor.

Levity aside this is worrying with 2 months to go . There is a point when an absolute ton of money needs to be spent to reroute the ferries and get the beans and shotguns loaded ( OTT , I know, but you get the idea ) and we are probably beyond it.

Hurrache

Another thing I took from that documentary is that May and the conservatives haven't learned a single thing with how to deal with the EU from Cameron's failed approaches.

blackcard

Carole Malone on Sky News Review - Empty vessels make most noise

Tell me how

Hurrache wrote: »

Another thing I took from that documentary is that May and the conservatives haven't learned a single thing with how to deal with the EU from Cameron's failed approaches.

Saw a very good program on BBC 2 tonight about ten years of the EU. It was episode 1 of 3 and covered Cameron's negotiations with the EU.

Very telling was that the night David Cameron secured allowances from the EU to withhold welfare benefits payments to EU migrants for 7 years and the ability to stay outside intended further EU integration, Michael Gove announced that he would be chairing the leave campaign.

The problems which the UK has with the EU originate and exist largely within the UK.