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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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J Mysterio

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/1089899355346296832

So, now is the time for Theresa May to exploit the "chaos" in Brussels and Dublin and this is due to "intransigence" in Brussels and the Irish government exploiting Brexit for it's own "narrow political domestic aims".

Are we 100% sure Sammy Wilson isn't actually a troll or some form of candid camera comedian, because the alternative is kind of terrifying.

Even if there were 'EU chaos, which there isn't, 'exploit' is a very significant choice of word. Also mentions getting rid of GFA, never mind the lies and calling Leo naive etc. what a jackass.

Havockk

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Odd, I remember that concern being mostly dismissed, with vague suggestions that an EEA style arrangement (but not EEA) would probably allow for EMA and EBA to stay in London. In the run-up to the referendum, that sort of reply seemed to be sufficient to deflect the matter.

Anyway, beside the point. It happened on Friday. That is news for the 900 staff, thousands of dependents and the wider pharma industry, and it is news that has been carefully ignored.

Weird suggestion. Why would the UK need it's own EU regulator? It has MHRA to handle local functions, they'll just need to take back the approvals process. They won't be recruiting 900 new staff for that. The point about EU QPPVs, regulatory and PV departments wanting to co-locate with EMA still stands. Future investment will also take a hit.

I specifically remember Daniel Hannan saying that the UK were leaving the EU, not the SM and CU.

ancapailldorcha

Havockk wrote: »

I specifically remember Daniel Hannan saying that the UK were leaving the EU, not the SM and CU.

He's featured in this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

These people just threw out whatever combination of words they thought would yield a leave win.

An Ciarraioch

The good news appears to be that the Brady amendment on the backstop looks to be dead:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1089926495194222595

Havockk

This just gets messier and messier. Does anyone remember a story some time ago about a young woman from the North and her US husband? The UK just never bothered to fully implement the terms of the GFA...

http://eamonnmallie.com/2019/01/how-brexit-is-going-to-expose-the-failure-to-implement-irish-citizenship-provisions-of-the-gfa-by-daniel-holder/

An Ciarraioch

On the other hand, what the Lord gives with the one hand, he takes with the other, as Labour support for the Cooper amendment "is in doubt" :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/labour-support-for-yvette-coopers-brexit-amendment-in-doubt

MrMusician18

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The good news appears to be that the Brady amendment on the backstop looks to be dead:

http://twitter.com/Peston/status/1089926495194222595

I don't know if that is good news. The Brady amendment is dead because the ERG saw that it paved the way to a deal.

She may well have win some meaningless window dressing on the backstop to save face if it went through.

RobMc59

Havockk wrote: »

This just gets messier and messier. Does anyone remember a story some time ago about a young woman from the North and her US husband? The UK just never bothered to fully implement the terms of the GFA...

http://eamonnmallie.com/2019/01/how-brexit-is-going-to-expose-the-failure-to-implement-irish-citizenship-provisions-of-the-gfa-by-daniel-holder/

Are there two couples?-one was ok and the other had problems as the woman had renounced her citizenship which caused confusion?

Akrasia

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On the other hand, what the Lord gives with the one hand, he takes with the other, as Labour support for the Cooper amendment "is in doubt" :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/labour-support-for-yvette-coopers-brexit-amendment-in-doubt

If Labour don't support this amendment, it makes Corbyn's demands that May 'take no deal off the table' look extremely disingenuous

The question is, does Corbyn care how he looks given that he's already blatantly ignoring the mandate he was given at his party conference to push for a 2nd referendum.

Havockk

RobMc59 wrote: »

Are there two couples?-one was ok and the other had problems as the woman had renounced her citizenship which caused confusion?

There are 2 cases yes. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/31/home-office-tells-northern-irish-woman-to-prove-right-to-live-in-belfast is the second.

lawred2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On the other hand, what the Lord gives with the one hand, he takes with the other, as Labour support for the Cooper amendment "is in doubt" :

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/28/labour-support-for-yvette-coopers-brexit-amendment-in-doubt

And not supporting it arguably ignores an even bigger cohort of 'ordinary' folk

Honestly anyone using the term 'ordinary' to describe people deserves a slap across the head

Hurrache

So May has asked her MPs to back the Brady amendment, presumably under the whip.
Europe have been saying all day there's no renegotiation.
The ERG have said that they won't support it.
Mental.

Edit: and Coveney just reminding them
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1089949808654254080?s=19[url][/url]

J Mysterio

Hurrache wrote: »

So May has asked her MPs to back the Brady amendment, presumably under the whip.
Europe have been saying all day there's no renegotiation.
The ERG have said that they won't support it.
Mental.

May never opened up to the British people and explained the cold hard reality, now its basically too late. She is still twisting and turning and scheming but its hopeless now. Shambles.

oscarBravo

Quoth Sammy Wilson: "...the backstop... would ignore the democratic will of the NI Assembly."

Someone needs to take Sammy aside and quietly explain to him that there isn't currently a NI Assembly, and that as such its "democratic will" is unknowable.

Water John

The Brady amendment says 'alternative arrangements'. What in the hell does that stand for? This would not tell us what the HOC wants.

Havockk

oscarBravo wrote: »

Quoth Sammy Wilson: "...the backstop... would ignore the democratic will of the NI Assembly."

Someone needs to take Sammy aside and quietly explain to him that there isn't currently a NI Assembly, and that as such its "democratic will" is unknowable.

It really is a post-truth world these days.

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

The Brady amendment says 'alternative arrangements'. What in the hell does that stand for? This would not tell us what the HOC wants.

May wants the 'alternative arrangements' supposedly. Despite saying to the HOC just the other week that 'no version of the WA does not have a backstop and accepting this.

She keeps on backtracking (also sidetracking, but rarely forwardtracking) on promises made.

Irishmale0399

Water John wrote: »

The Brady amendment says 'alternative arrangements'. What in the hell does that stand for? This would not tell us what the HOC wants.

The question is if the EU know anything about them or have agreed to them

Hurrache

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The question is if the EU know anything about them or have agreed to them

They obviously don't and haven't, there's been no renegotiation.

Irishmale0399

Hurrache wrote: »

They obviously don't and haven't, there's been no renegotiation.

Gotta love their arrogance....

judeboy101

Hurrache wrote: »

So May has asked her MPs to back the Brady amendment, presumably under the whip.
Europe have been saying all day there's no renegotiation.
The ERG have said that they won't support it.
Mental.

Edit: and Coveney just reminding them
https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/1089949808654254080?s=19[url][/url]

She'd need a 3 line whip and some serious pressure on erg to get this through.

Mr.Nice Guy

It's a bit like that scene in Point Break where Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves' characters are plummeting to the ground with Swayze's character refusing to deploy the parachute chord despite the imminent risk.

The UK likewise is looking Ireland in the eye in this game of chicken as we both hurtle towards the ground, counting on Ireland, much like Reeves' character in the movie, to be the responsible one to pull the chord and sort out the problem.

The British government have now abandoned all pretence that they care about peace and stability on this island. This is a recklessness that is utterly self-serving. The sooner there's a reunification poll and a second Scottish independence referendum the better.

Tell me how

judeboy101 wrote: »

She'd need a 3 line whip and some serious pressure on erg to get this through.

Wonder if she gets roundly defeated will she wash her hands of it, resign and let whoever wants to step in and try to resolve it.

Tell me how

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's a bit like that scene in Point Break where Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves' characters are plummeting to the ground with Swayze's character refusing to deploy the parachute chord despite the imminent risk.

The UK likewise is looking Ireland in the eye in this game of chicken as we both hurtle towards the ground, counting on Ireland, much like Reeves' character in the movie, to be the responsible one to pull the chord and sort out the problem.

The British government have now abandoned all pretence that they care about peace and stability on this island. This is a recklessness that is utterly self-serving. The sooner there's a reunification poll and a second Scottish independence referendum the better.

I think we all need about 5 years to take a breath after this before we go in to either of these scenarios to be honest.

judeboy101

Tell me how wrote: »

Wonder if she gets roundly defeated will she wash her hands of it, resign and let whoever wants to step in and try to resolve it.

I think the answer to that is a NO.

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1089946126554484736

Water John

So TM is still asking people to vote for unicorns. The amendment means absolutely nothing.

Hurrache

May is aiming for February the 13th for the next meaningful vote.

10000maniacs

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

It's a bit like that scene in Point Break where Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves' characters are plummeting to the ground with Swayze's character refusing to deploy the parachute chord despite the imminent risk.

The UK likewise is looking Ireland in the eye in this game of chicken as we both hurtle towards the ground, counting on Ireland, much like Reeves' character in the movie, to be the responsible one to pull the chord and sort out the problem.

The British government have now abandoned all pretence that they care about peace and stability on this island. This is a recklessness that is utterly self-serving. The sooner there's a reunification poll and a second Scottish independence referendum the better.

The only issue with your analogy is we will be alright if the UK doesn't pull its chord. It will be tough but we will be fine.

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

Wonder if she gets roundly defeated will she wash her hands of it, resign and let whoever wants to step in and try to resolve it.

There's an interesting conundrum if such an amendment got the deal over the line in the HoC. Because it would not be agreed to by the EU, so then what happens? Parliament has approved an undeliverable treaty which means (imo) crash out.