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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

58% of DUP supporters favour a soft Brexit, so surely Sammy & Co should be pushing for Norway Plus?

https://mobile.twitter.com/LucidTalk/status/1088066433299505152

In fairness, the DUP (apart from Wilson and Paisley Jr) couldn't care less what happens with Brexit, even it being cancelled. They just want to be seen doing the same thing as GB is doing.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I don’t want to dwell on this as it’s off topic but you are baiting me to respond

Here is what I feel is spawned by sectarianism. And before you jump all over me I am also influenced by my sectarianism but I have tried to raise my self awareness of it. It seems there is an incredible lack of self awareness of this in nationalist community
Here’s some of what he said

“ The DUP are a party that were fundamentally opposed to stopping a conflict that killed over 3,500 people. This is the worry we have in the south.”
??????

“Any party that considers the GFA a negotiating tool, or dismisses it, is hardline in my opinion”
Exactly what Irish politicians have been doing most recently tonight your premier

“ I think it would be a mistake to try and incorporate both the northern Irish subvention and their politics in the south.”
Those terrible northerners

eh don't start that business now - I didn't follow up an unexplained accusation of sectarianism with a flounce

Asking you to justify such an accusation is not baiting now.

As for the second bit - what exactly is it that Varadkar is supposed to have done 'tonight'?

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

We are not interested in being like England tbh that’s a pretty naive suggestion given the fantastic diversity across England I don’t know which bit you think we are trying to copy. We want to remain in a union with the other diverse regions of the UK.

There you go again, contradicting yourself in the space of two consecutive sentences, and making a great case for staying in the EU.
So (a) We are not interested in being like England if you don't want to be like them, why are you supporting the position of xenophobic English nationalists? Because that's all Brexit is. Your fellow countrymen voted to REMAIN in the EU, so please, please explain why you've decided to sell out for no return?
And (b) We want to remain in a union with the other diverse regions If you want to remain in a union of diverse regions, there's none more diverse than the EU, so why are you so determined to leave it?

downcow wrote: »

I am super confident that you don’t need to worry about your fear of a UI it’s not happening. It would be like turkeys voting for Xmas. ... The last serious polls put those wanting UI we under 25%.

My summary of recent surveys early this morning suggests that your confidence may be misplaced.

downcow

lawred2 wrote: »

eh don't start that business now - I didn't follow up an unexplained accusation of sectarianism with a flounce

Asking you to justify such an accusation is not baiting now.

As for the second bit - what exactly is it that Varadkar is supposed to have done 'tonight'?

Well I don’t know about your media etc down there but everyone was fairly united up here that he was useing a threat of violence on the border in a wholly unacceptable way. SDLP sf unionists and political commentators.
But sure in your eyes he done nothing wrong

prawnsambo

downcow wrote: »

Well I don’t know about your media etc down there but everyone was fairly united up here that he was useing a threat of violence on the border in a wholly unacceptable way. SDLP sf unionists and political commentators.
But sure in your eyes he done nothing wrong

Any links to this united feeling up there? No offence mate, but you've not got a great record of backing up statements like that on here.

Bit cynical

unit 1 wrote: »

Ok so the uk crash out and we trade under wto rules while a fta is negotiated. Surely the first item on the fta talks agenda would be the border question, and we are back on the backstop merry go round.

The backstop is simply not up for grabs, nor can it ever be. If the uk find wto rules not to their liking they will still have to grab the nettle in the trade talks.

Put simply from day one they never had any leverage over the eu and should finally man up and admit their stupid mistake and cancel brexit, any compensation due for the costs incurred trying to mediate for their silly escapade would probably be a bridge too far but steps would be needed to prevent others from getting the same silly ideas.

I think we need to remember that if the UK crash out, then the hard border will be in place fairly soon afterwards. It is no longer a case of the backstop being insurance against the hard border just as you can't take out insurance against a crash that has already happened. There will be no open border to preserve. New solutions will have to be found. That will require flexibility. The old "we're not budging" will not work from either side.

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Well I don’t know about your media etc down there but everyone was fairly united up here that he was useing a threat of violence on the border in a wholly unacceptable way. SDLP sf unionists and political commentators.
But sure in your eyes he done nothing wrong

Do you think customs installations and personnel won't be attacked?

downcow

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think we need to remember that if the UK crash out, then the hard border will be in place fairly soon afterwards. It is no longer a case of the backstop being insurance against the hard border just as you can't take out insurance against a crash that has already happened. There will be no open border to preserve. New solutions will have to be found. That will require flexibility. The old "we're not budging" will not work from either side.

Totally agree. We will see sensible compromise from both sides
Of course if the backstop were in place then Eu would not be interested in any compromise

oscarBravo

lawred2 wrote: »

...what exactly is it that Varadkar is supposed to have done 'tonight'?

He pointed out the basic facts of a hard border. On cue, the chattering classes clutched their pearls and reached for their smelling salts.

I really hate the commenterati sometimes. Varadkar doesn't admit that a hard border will require physical infrastructure and security: why is he being coy? what's he hiding?! Varadkar admits that a hard border will require physical infrastructure and security: how dare he inflame tensions with his insensitive rhetoric!

If people can't handle facts, they should stop f*cking asking for them.

oscarBravo

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think we need to remember that if the UK crash out, then the hard border will be in place fairly soon afterwards. It is no longer a case of the backstop being insurance against the hard border just as you can't take out insurance against a crash that has already happened. There will be no open border to preserve. New solutions will have to be found. That will require flexibility. The old "we're not budging" will not work from either side.

There's one rather blatantly obvious fact you're carefully omitting: we've already arrived at a compromise.

The fact that the UK has rejected the compromise that it negotiated doesn't mean that the EU has to compromise further; it means that the UK needs to grow up and start negotiating in good faith.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

The last serious polls put those wanting UI we under 25%. So relax and don’t you be worrying

Hot off the presses, the latest LucidTalk poll. Summarised by the Belfast Telegraph,

58% said they would vote to stay if the two options on the ballot paper were remaining in the EU or leaving on the terms of Mrs May's deal.
57% said they would vote to stay if there was a straight choice of remaining in the EU or leaving without a deal
60% of people believe that Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely in the next decade

Your turn: let's have some links to the data backing up your assertions. :cool:

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think we need to remember that if the UK crash out, then the hard border will be in place fairly soon afterwards. It is no longer a case of the backstop being insurance against the hard border just as you can't take out insurance against a crash that has already happened. There will be no open border to preserve. New solutions will have to be found. That will require flexibility. The old "we're not budging" will not work from either side.

If the UK crash out, we're in a completely different paradigm. There's no point trying to preempt that by taking away the backstop which isn't actually the main problem, despite the pronouncements from various hard brexiters. In fact it's hard to know what the main problem is because it changes from day to day. Taking the backstop away will achieve the square root of feck all. It will immediately be replaced by something else that is seen as the anathema to brexit and the will of the people.

Have you not being listening to the talk from Westminster? May's deal is 'vassalage', BRINO, weak and not what the people voted for.

downcow

oscarBravo wrote: »

He pointed out the basic facts of a hard border. On cue, the chattering classes clutched their pearls and reached for their smelling salts.

I really hate the commenterati sometimes. Varadkar doesn't admit that a hard border will require physical infrastructure and security: why is he being coy? what's he hiding?! Varadkar admits that a hard border will require physical infrastructure and security: how dare he inflame tensions with his insensitive rhetoric!

If people can't handle facts, they should stop f*cking asking for them.

I actually agree with much of what you say there. But watching from here the timing of his outburst looks like the threat of border violence being used because there are signs Eu are losing there nerve and need a bit of pressure.
And how are we supposed to take the ireland position serious we we are getting opposite statements sometimes even from the same person?

Bit cynical

oscarBravo wrote: »

There's one rather blatantly obvious fact you're carefully omitting: we've already arrived at a compromise.

The fact that the UK has rejected the compromise that it negotiated doesn't mean that the EU has to compromise further; it means that the UK needs to grow up and start negotiating in good faith.

I don't think we have. The UK only agrees to something concerning the WA when the parliament has agreed to it since the UK Notification of Withdrawal Act of 2017:

The Prime Minister may not conclude an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, on the terms of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, without the approval of both Houses of Parliament.

First Up

downcow wrote:

Totally agree. We will see sensible compromise from both sides Of course if the backstop were in place then Eu would not be interested in any compromise

What do you think the EU should compromise on?

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

If the UK crash out, we're in a completely different paradigm. There's no point trying to preempt that by taking away the backstop which isn't actually the main problem, despite the pronouncements from various hard brexiters. In fact it's hard to know what the main problem is because it changes from day to day. Taking the backstop away will achieve the square root of feck all. It will immediately be replaced by something else that is seen as the anathema to brexit and the will of the people.

Have you not being listening to the talk from Westminster? May's deal is 'vassalage', BRINO, weak and not what the people voted for.

Yes it is a new paradigm, a point I made in my post. But this also means that the backstop, part of previous and - in this scenario - failed negotiations. It is gone and now meaningless. The main push at that point will be for fresh agreements and a reset of of the relationship between the EU and UK.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

I actually agree with much of what you say there. But watching from here the timing of his outburst looks like the threat of border violence being used because there are signs Eu are losing there nerve and need a bit of pressure.
And how are we supposed to take the ireland position serious we we are getting opposite statements sometimes even from the same person?

We are heading towards no deal. When do you think he should have said it? Two days before? Like the post you replied to said if he says nothing then he is lambasted for not facing reality. When he states reality then people are upset that he is talking up the threat of violence.

blanch152

Bit cynical wrote: »

However you can't know what sort of border you need until you know what the trading relationship is going to be. That is the normal order of consideration. Countries that want minimal border need to ensure that trade is free enough that minimal border is needed.

So you have a default option, otherwise known as a backstop until you know what the trading relationship is going to be.

Glad you understand.

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

There will be no open border to preserve. New solutions will have to be found. That will require flexibility. The old "we're not budging" will not work from either side.

There will still be the GFA to preserve, and there will still be the unfortunate geographical reality that NI is part of the island of Ireland and not part of GB.

Oh, and there will still be a deep distrust of the UK by the EU, and the (un)likelihood that Britannia will keep any of her promises. So "flexibility" is hardly going to be a feature of the EU's short and medium term negotiating position. Maybe when the UK has shown that she can behave herself (by gestures of good faith, such as agreeing a special arrangement for NI) some small concessions could be made ... :rolleyes:

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Yes it is a new paradigm, a point I made in my post. But this also means that the backstop, part of previous - and in this scenario - failed negotiations. It is gone and now meaningless. The main push at that point will be for fresh agreements and a reset of of the relationship between the EU and UK.

Do you not see that that ship has sailed? May is playing to the brink to get her deal past the HoC and there's no chance that any further negotiations will take place. So yes, it will be a crash out or her deal or they call the whole thing off. It's in their hands now and we are the spectators. This is the point that blinking does not happen. If you're getting weak at the knees at the prospect, well, just as well you're not a negotiator.

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Totally agree. We will see sensible compromise from both sides

We had a sensible compromise between both sides back in December 2017. Then the DUP got involved and all good sense went out the window.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I actually agree with much of what you say there. But watching from here the timing of his outburst looks like the threat of border violence being used because there are signs Eu are losing there nerve and need a bit of pressure.
And how are we supposed to take the ireland position serious we we are getting opposite statements sometimes even from the same person?

What signs are there? Please don't say that Polish utterance! That has no support anywhere in the EU. Irrelevant too given how Poland has already approved the Withdrawal Agreement in its own Parliament. If that's all you've got to hand then I'd retire that line of thinking.

Anyway - it's not an outburst. It's a statement of reality. Brexit is a central topic at Davos this year and with 2 months to go the British Parliament is imploding with no deal..

That's the timing of it.

Irishmale0399

downcow wrote: »

I actually agree with much of what you say there. But watching from here the timing of his outburst looks like the threat of border violence being used because there are signs Eu are losing there nerve and need a bit of pressure.
And how are we supposed to take the ireland position serious we we are getting opposite statements sometimes even from the same person?

Who is losing there nerve??? The EU have been straight from the first moment and havent changed their stance unlike your friends in WM. The deal is on the table....its the UK that are trying to play the victim and change it. Cherry picking because they still dont realise they are on a slippery slope.

Before making such comments lock all MPs you lot elected in WM and allow them to finally come to an agreement n what exactly it is they want. Then they can come out and ask the EU politely to reopen talks. You seem to forget....the EU have been saying the backstop must stay otherwise its a hard Brexit....the EU dont need the UK.

A hard Brexit means an EU border between Ireland and Northern Ireland....that will be controlled by customs, cops and army. The UK government will not want an open door for refugees coming into the UK from the Republic will they. At the moment the only problem is sitting in London.......like a group of kids at playschool trying to decide who gets the last sweet.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

Do you not see that that ship has sailed? May is playing to the brink to get her deal past the HoC and there's no chance that any further negotiations will take place. So yes, it will be a crash out or her deal or they call the whole thing off. It's in their hands now and we are the spectators. This is the point that blinking does not happen. If you're getting weak at the knees at the prospect, well, just as well you're not a negotiator.

One of the 3 options - no deal - may very well be off the table shortly, so just Mays deal or scrap the whole thing. Win win for us really. And northern Ireland.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

But watching from here the timing of his outburst looks like the threat of border violence being used because there are signs Eu are losing there nerve and need a bit of pressure.
And how are we supposed to take the ireland position serious we we are getting opposite statements sometimes even from the same person?

Firstly how is someone talking calmly in a sit-down interview an "outburst"?
Secondly, none of what he said was wrong.
Thirdly as the EU haven't changed position, how are they supposedly "losing there(sic) nerve"?
Lastly, what opposing statements have been made by someone (and who was that)?

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

Do you not see that that ship has sailed? May is playing to the brink to get her deal past the HoC and there's no chance that any further negotiations will take place. So yes, it will be a crash out or her deal or they call the whole thing off. It's in their hands now and we are the spectators. This is the point that blinking does not happen. If you're getting weak at the knees at the prospect, well, just as well you're not a negotiator.

No, I am talking about the scenario, raised by another poster, in which a no deal brexit has occurred. I'm not talking about fresh thinking happening between now and Brexit day.

Seth Brundle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One of the 3 options - no deal - may very well be off the table shortly, so just Mays deal or scrap the whole thing. Win win for us really. And northern Ireland.

No deal is the default. It cannot be removed from the table.

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

We are heading towards no deal. When do you think he should have said it? Two days before? Like the post you replied to said if he says nothing then he is lambasted for not facing reality. When he states reality then people are upset that he is talking up the threat of violence.

I am agreeing with you if he would just stick with what he sees as reality. I may not happen (and in my view it won’t) but it would be honest and that would really help the process

FrancieBrady

Seth Brundle wrote: »

No deal is the default. It cannot be removed from the table.

Sorry, I wasn't pedantic enough - parliament will take control and not allow a no deal to happen

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

No, I am talking about the scenario, raised by another poster, in which a no deal brexit has occurred. I'm not talking about fresh thinking happening between now and Brexit day.

And that should only be looked at when it happens. Because we have no idea of the extent of the preparations that have been made for such a scenario. Except that preparations have been made. So no point panicking now.