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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

On another note, I now have to deal with my Mum ringing me regularly asking me what the story is and I have no idea what to say to her. I'm seriously considering emigrating now.

I think she can call you not matter where you move!

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, I totally see that, my (poorly made) point was really about the lack of any actual follow up on the position.

So great, lets use the 39bn which we have agreed we owe as a bargaining chip, but what if they call our bluff. When we walk away do we really think that that is the end of it? That the EU won't come looking for the money either through international arbitration or as a starting point to any FTA?

Their goal is to walk away though. Rees-Mogg and co aren't daft enough to think they'll get a better deal hence the current foot-stamping rhetoric about going it alone.

On another note, I now have to deal with my Mum ringing me regularly asking me what the story is and I have no idea what to say to her. I'm seriously considering emigrating now.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

The German chancellor (I think it was but it was stated as Merkels right hand man) stated in a C4 interview from Davos yesterday that he would be very open to an extension without any preconditions in order to avoid No Deal.

Whilst other countries might well have a gripe, is this really the hill they are going to die on? For what? Why would the likes of Hungary etc invite the wrath of Germany etc on such a nothing (to them at least) issue?

The issue that's not been mentioned much is that the EU needs to agree its next budget. The current budget is until 2020 and this is where the arguments about the 39 billion pounds come from.

The EU members all need to ratify the budget so net beneficiaries like Hungary and Poland, by irking the Germans could find themselves in a difficult position over the sake of a pro-Brexit UK whose leaders don't seem to care much for their own people, let alone the Eastern European countries whose citizens' movements to the UK are politically troublesome.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The people proposing to use it as a bargaining chip are the people who want no deal unless it is all of the benefits the UK had before (minus free movement of course) with no trade-offs.

Ultimately, they don't care about the FTA as evinced by the various instances of senior pro-Brexit figures moving assets abroad.

Yes, I totally see that, my (poorly made) point was really about the lack of any actual follow up on the position.

So great, lets use the 39bn which we have agreed we owe as a bargaining chip, but what if they call our bluff. When we walk away do we really think that that is the end of it? That the EU won't come looking for the money either through international arbitration or as a starting point to any FTA?

So it is really to follow the theme that people are allowed make these suggestions without anyone looking at the effects or outcomes. Its why the Dellingpole interview from last night is getting such attention as for once the person making the great claim was actually held to account for the outcome

Zubeneschamali

Havockk wrote: »

But what if there is a hit to the economy in less than 70 days and a hard border?

If we are feeling the hit from Brexit in 70 days, the UK will be the full Mad Max, so Irexit will not look inviting.

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And there is no majority in the HOC for anything apart from No Deal. Going to the EU with just that might not be enough to persuade the EU. Also, let's not forget that every country has a veto. It wouldn't be beyond the bounds of possibility that a country with a gripe against the EU might see this as an opportunity to flex its muscles.

The German chancellor (I think it was but it was stated as Merkels right hand man) stated in a C4 interview from Davos yesterday that he would be very open to an extension without any preconditions in order to avoid No Deal.

Whilst other countries might well have a gripe, is this really the hill they are going to die on? For what? Why would the likes of Hungary etc invite the wrath of Germany etc on such a nothing (to them at least) issue?

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its like the guy on QT yesterday saying they should use the 39bn as a bargaining chip. But no one ever asks the quite reasonable follow up.

To use it as a bargaining chip, they must be prepared not to pay it, and if they don't pay it what do they think the effect on a chances of a FTA will be? Do they really believe that the EU will simply accept non payment and forget about it? Or is it more likely that it will simply form the very start of any negotiations over a FTA.

The people proposing to use it as a bargaining chip are the people who want no deal unless it is all of the benefits the UK had before (minus free movement of course) with no trade-offs.

Ultimately, they don't care about the FTA as evinced by the various instances of senior pro-Brexit figures moving assets abroad.

Leroy42

Its like the guy on QT yesterday saying they should use the 39bn as a bargaining chip. But no one ever asks the quite reasonable follow up.

To use it as a bargaining chip, they must be prepared not to pay it, and if they don't pay it what do they think the effect on a chances of a FTA will be? Do they really believe that the EU will simply accept non payment and forget about it? Or is it more likely that it will simply form the very start of any negotiations over a FTA.

Havockk

murphaph wrote: »

I wouldn't be surprised but it would seem very unlikely to succeed. The Irish basically know the score... we're a small open economy and leaving the EU would be economic suicide. We know we're not superior somehow to our continental partners. We know the EU is not perfect too, but we know where we'd be without it.

But what if there is a hit to the economy in less than 70 days and a hard border? That's fertile breeding ground for the likes of those behind this nonsense in the first place. No complacency.

Professor Moriarty

trellheim wrote: »

A lot of politics is looking at Yvette Cooper's amendment on Tuesday which will further throw mud into the water ( it tries to take No-Deal off the table ) . It more or less presupposes an A50 extension but I cannot for the life of me see the EU granting it without a big big change in HoC intentions

And there is no majority in the HOC for anything apart from No Deal. Going to the EU with just that might not be enough to persuade the EU. Also, let's not forget that every country has a veto. It wouldn't be beyond the bounds of possibility that a country with a gripe against the EU might see this as an opportunity to flex its muscles.

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

Breitbart UK, Cambridge Analytica and advocate for Britain leaving on WTO terms gets an absolute mauling when actually questioned on why Britain should move to WTO rules.

WTF British media hasn't been asking these people these questions before is shameful
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1088725166266429440?s=19

His wiki entry was subsequently amended
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1088748628582248449?s=19

I watched that last night. Absolute car crash of an interview where the other panelists were openly laughing at him.

Won't have much effect on those like him though. 'We'll be alright' seems to be the default.

murphaph

Havockk wrote: »

Before long there will be an orchestrated Irexit campaign that will prob ramp up from the indo.

I wouldn't be surprised but it would seem very unlikely to succeed. The Irish basically know the score... we're a small open economy and leaving the EU would be economic suicide. We know we're not superior somehow to our continental partners. We know the EU is not perfect too, but we know where we'd be without it.

Shelga

What do we think the chances of no deal are now then?

Will they sleepwalk into it? I can’t see enough MPs supporting anything to stop it, be that an extension to article 50, revoking it, or a people’s vote.

Why are they having another vote on the dead deal next week?

Have the EU said anything about the circumstances under which they might offer an extension?

Hurrache

Breitbart UK, Cambridge Analytica and advocate for Britain leaving on WTO terms gets an absolute mauling when actually questioned on why Britain should move to WTO rules.

WTF British media hasn't been asking these people these questions before is shameful
https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1088725166266429440?s=19

His wiki entry was subsequently amended
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1088748628582248449?s=19

trellheim

A lot of politics is looking at Yvette Cooper's amendment on Tuesday which will further throw mud into the water ( it tries to take No-Deal off the table ) . It more or less presupposes an A50 extension but I cannot for the life of me see the EU granting it without a big big change in HoC intentions

Havockk

Hurrache wrote: »

They're taking a different attacking approach today. I think someone needs to take a trip to the editors office to check they're not all being held in there by a Brexiteer expedition force.

Before long there will be an orchestrated Irexit campaign that will prob ramp up from the indo.

Kermit.de.frog

The Independent through some of it's false reporting in recent weeks has actually done some damage to Ireland's perceived position. The Independent had two headlines that were picked up in the UK press and run with.

One was that Varadkar said to other party leaders at a meeting that checks would have to be put between the EU mainland and Ireland. Even Sinn Féin came out and said that was a completely false take.

There was another one but can't think of it off my head.

But both either total lies or incompetent journalism that Brexiteers seized on as showing division between us and the EU.

Shoddy "journalism"

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Very true, but it's very popular and well read toilet paper.

Isn't their website the second most popular in the country?

Fine to publish minority views, but I think a lot of these articles are deliberately inflammatory. Essentially they are clickbait. The IT sometimes does the same but not nearly as much.

FrancieBrady

funkey_monkey wrote: »

We are starting to sidetrack this thread. I certainly don't disagree about the DUP being an abhorrent party - I'm stuck in one of their 'safe seats' so I know all too well about them.
Although, SF are no angels either. But let's not detail this thread.

Well I certainly didn't claim that there are any fully angelic parties in politics. But some 'angels' have dirtier faces than others!

BonnieSituation

road_high wrote: »

The Indo has been toilet paper for decades- it’ll be the preferred paper for Gemma O’Doherty types soon

Very true, but it's very popular and well read toilet paper.

Isn't their website the second most popular in the country?

BonnieSituation

road_high wrote: »

Was headline in their app version- I can’t seem to copy paste it to here! It was an article about taxation and Davos conference.

Yea, definitely something or someone is trying to create a chasm between us and europe.

Yeah, I read the article and I actually had to tweet at the indo about it. It's rather pathetic.

ancapailldorcha

road_high wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/under-siege-world-leaders-take-tax-haven-swipe-at-us-37747655.html

Here we go...

Mod: Please don't just paste a link without any sort of comment or opinion as to its contents. Thanks.

prawnsambo

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

I've seen this a couple of times, whats the deal with the permits, or more correctly, the complete lack of them? Who is issuing them and surely they must be aware that 60 is a farcically small number given the situation???

This I think refers to ECMT permits that are issued by each country to allow non-national vehicles transit their territory. It's part of emission controls under the OECD / International Transport Forum. Countries like Ireland would have very little need for these as it's unlikely that vehicles from outside the EU would end up in our territory. But on 29th March at 11:00pm we will suddenly have borders with a non-EU territory and there won't be enough permits.

The permits have to be applied for and are based on a quota system, which means that changing the number would require a hefty amount of negotiation. The countries that participate in the scheme are as follows:

Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and United Kingdom.

So it's not an EU system, it's just that membership of the EU dispenses with the need for these permits as the EU is treated as one territory for haulage purposes. Also important to note that this system is based on vehicles (not drivers or haulage companies) and structured according to emissions of the vehicles concerned. The UK as a whole has just under 1000 of these permits for HGVs.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP abandoned their enshrined commitment to ensure the will of the people was done, a long time ago. Hence the inability of any democrat to sit in government with them.

What is very irritating is when DUP MPs, as they are being interviewed on British TV, speak about what the "people of NI want". They were elected by 36% of the people of NI and latest polls show that they are supported by 30% of the people of NI. It would be far more honest to say "The people that I represent." But that would be wishful thinking.

road_high

The Indo has been toilet paper for decades- it’ll be the preferred paper for Gemma O’Doherty types soon

road_high

prawnsambo wrote: »

Headline: Wolrd leaders take a swipe.
Body: One leader from Poland...

Unknown until today! Poland are a pariah govt within Europe and using this as an angle of attack

FrancieBrady

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Brexit is a Westminster issue. The government is conservatives. As much as I world have preferred the DUP to adopt a more balanced approach, they are within their rights to go to Westminster on a brexit platform as that is what they stood for and were elected in.

If, however, the assembly was up and running, then I would expect OFMDFM to adopt the will of the people and lobby TM accordingly.

However, both SF and DUP have abandoned the electorate. And so here we are...

The DUP abandoned their enshrined commitment to ensure the will of the people was done, a long time ago. Hence the inability of any democrat to sit in government with them.

prawnsambo

road_high wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/under-siege-world-leaders-take-tax-haven-swipe-at-us-37747655.html

Here we go...

Headline: Wolrd leaders take a swipe.
Body: One leader from Poland...

Hurrache

road_high wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/under-siege-world-leaders-take-tax-haven-swipe-at-us-37747655.html

Here we go...

Don't click the link, but I posted the headline above

Under Siege: world leaders take 'tax haven' swipe at us

road_high

https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/under-siege-world-leaders-take-tax-haven-swipe-at-us-37747655.html

Here we go...