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Brexit Discussion Thread VI

johnnyskeleton

Hi folks, as Theresa May has won the vote of no confidence and we are heading into Brexit day early next year, I thought for the new thread people might give their summary of their views on Brexit to date before we get into the more day to day discussions.

So what do you think about what has happened so far? Who has come off well, who has come off badly?

Where do you think Brexit is going? What is going to be the likely impact on Ireland, Northern Ireland, the rest of the U.K. and the E.U. respectively?

Both this thread and the Mark V thread will remain open simultaneously for the next day or so and Mark V will be closed as it gets closer to the server busting 10,000 mark. Hopefully we can set down a solid foundation now for a top quality thread to come!

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mickoneill31

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

In what way? The last time I looked Britain had fewer MEPs per head of population of any EU country.

Probably need to look again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apportionment_in_the_European_Parliament

It also helped that Ireland and other countries usually voted along with the UK as we had similar interests which gave the UK an advantage when voting.

Admittedly the UKIP MEPs were pretty much useless but that was Britain's choice and not the fault of the EU.

Borderhopper

downcow wrote: »

Ill not call any of you politicians liars as we all know what would happen
I would like to see gay marriage introduced in NI but it is a devolved matter and the crazy structures that the gfa set up means it can’t happen at this time. Abortion is much more complicated for me but I have a slight leaning to pro choice. But not sure why any of this is relevant. We have this situation because of the gfa which now everyone in Eu except those living in NI think is the greatest thing since sliced bread

Please don't peddle the notion that the GFA is reviled in Northern Ireland. I'll ask again, what are nationalists supposed to do? Where is our place? Because we don't feel like we have a place anymore.

J Mysterio

downcow wrote: »

The answer is None
The majority of our nation voted to leave. We are a democracy. Our region has had massive economical support from our nation (UK). We would be absolutely insane to separate and go with a nation (ireland) which even according th sf has showed little or no interest in our wellbeing over last 100 years.
I would rather stay with our nation of 70million people than dive into the unknown with a nation of 5 million and reliant on Eu which is heading into very difficult times
Does that help you?

Thing is, were the backstop to come into effect, NI would still be part of the UK, but like a special economic zone. You will still trade with the UK, and you get full access to the EU market and EU rights in addition to those you enjoy as a UK citizen. Put simply, the backstop maintains the status quo and would likely provide a boost for Northern Ireland too..

No Backstop No Deal Brexit with Hard Border is the absolute worst outcome for everybody, especially Northern Ireland and for a multitiude of reasons. Chief among these would be the impact on society and the strong likelihood of violence, but the economy will be smashed too.

Cross border manufacturing/ processing/ production destroyed, cross border trade ruined, huge impact on agriculture and on bloated public service, the latter of which will be hammered through loss of EU/ UK funding.

Ultimately though, a bad Brexit is a huge fracture in all our relationships and is a very negative thing, not to be able to find a deal and to find agreement. No one wants to see border posts on this island, to see patrols and guards and soldiers. To breath life into sectarian nonsense.

Either revoking A50 or having Brexit and taking the May Deal would avoid all these unwelcome repercussions. It would make a United Ireland less likely and 'strengthen the union' while safeguarding the economy and peoples futures. You are taking a giant leap into the dark here and that is hugely dangerous and irresponsible, cos we are tied to you.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

In what way? The last time I looked Britain had fewer MEPs per head of population of any EU country.

Well you mustn't have been wearing your spectacles or you didn't look very hard. Nor at the responses the last time you posted this misinformation. So I suggest you look again. And then come back and edit your post to reflect the correct information.

Infini

downcow wrote: »

The answer is None
The majority of our nation voted to leave. We are a democracy. Our region has had massive economical support from our nation (UK). We would be absolutely insane to separate and go with a nation (ireland) which even according th sf has showed little or no interest in our wellbeing over last 100 years.
I would rather stay with our nation of 70million people than dive into the unknown with a nation of 5 million and reliant on Eu which is heading into very difficult times
Does that help you?

Lets be clear here the vote was barely 52 to 48 to leave but no details were provided on HOW to leave. The same vote has multiple investigations into the leave campaign based on evidence of campaign finance breaches AND meddling by Russia (Brexit was a trial run for the US elections the same year). In any other country this would have lead to either a rerun or annulment since the campaign was skewed to one side by breaching the rules but not only has it continued but now risks serious damage because those in Wesminster cannot cop on and be realistic.

Your region currently has support not just from the rest of the UK but the EU as well, what do you think will happen when that EU funding is cut off? That the UK can just magically replace all of it? The same party thats been in power several years and presided over continuous austerity? What of the value of those funds in the event of a Hard Brexit? Your looking at up to another 25% loss of Sterlings value in a crashout scenario on top of the 33% its dropped since before the referendum. Your currency would have less value than the Euro that will hammer you on anything that has to be imported or whos components have to be imported for example. Then consider you would see local trade essentially collapse overnight because trade becomes severely restricted over the border?

You also say the EU is heading into very difficult times based on what exactly? If anything the UK is basically on course to crash out and utterly wreck itself socially, politically and economically. You say youd rather stay with your nation BUT what about the rest of the population in NI. You really think THEY'LL want to stay if offered the choice between stability and economic prosperity and being tied to an utterly dysfunctional country with paralysed politics and complete lack of interest in regions like NI?

If you want my opinion you basically need to clear your beliefs about the EU and focus solely on facts and hard information and utterly ignore the baseless opinions and baseless statements of the likes of Boris, Moggs and even Sammy Shytestirrer. They're liars and chancers and all they're doing is misleading you into a trap. Your union is built on the support of its people, Brexit is literally throwing acid on that support and a hard brexit is the most corrosive of all because once people find themselves poorer and struggling and buisnesses closing and people losing their jobs they'll start asking real questions about what that union is still worth expecially when they start asking if a UI is of more value to THEM and facts are presented that benefit them in that scenario. If the WA isnt acceptable then Brexit simply cannot happen because if it does you will have to face the possibility of a UI being a reality and it will be because of it and the DUPs utter stupidity.

J Mysterio

Folkstonian wrote: »

Well that is kind of why I put it in quotation marks. I honestly don’t know what it isn’t meant to mean, or meant to feel like. All I know is I don’t have any feeling at all on that front.

And I think that’s one of the problems, maybe. It’s not out of malice or ill will. There’s nowhere more interesting on the planet for me than the continent of Europe. But it doesn’t feel like anything other than a foreign place.

And I think having an emotional connection to the idea, or the concept of a European ‘home’ is going to be so important for everyone who is going to be able to accept all of the integration drives. I don’t want England to be trying to pulling up the handbrake whilst everyone else puts their foot on the accelerator. It’s going to cause long term acrimonious feelings if anything, which I think in a world that’s really ticking right now.. we could all do without

With all due respect, that is absolute bollocks. You are talking about your 'feelings' and your 'feelings about Europe' and if you 'feel European'. Well, thats all lovely but the cold, hard reality is in 2019 our economies and societies are hugely intertwined and to pull us apart due to some arbitrary 'feelings' will hugely damage us all.

It makes no sense at all, it's like the hormones of a teenager.

There was any amount of things the UK could have done to sort out UK society and and UK politics. Look at the emigratiom you could limit from outside EU which has continued apace, look at the inequality in your society which has left half the country to die while London was the richest city in Europe. Look at the lack of integration and support for immigrant communities instead of blaming them for all societies ills. Look at zero hour contracts and lack of unvestment. Look at the broken political system and the fraud and the liars and charlatans. Stop blaming Europe for everything and grow up!

European countries who do share values, enlightenment values, do have common goals and are better and safer and stronger together. Especially in a cruel modern world. Brexit is a regression, a step backwards. It is insular and self serving. It is arrogant and belicose.

FreudianSlippers

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

It was always IAE (RR sold their stake in it but are still a supplier) or CFM on the 320ceo family, the 320neo is CFM or P&W, the neo engine options were chosen years ago.

330 ceo is GE, P&W or RR. 330 neo are all RR Trents

350 also all have RR engines. Again a decision made years ago.

380 is EA or RR, according to wikipedia it's about 45%:55%, RR ahead.

220 is P&W. Not an Airbus design, Bombardier made that decision years ago.

To say Brexit has had any impact on engine choices for any model produced in the foreseeable future is a red herring I'm afraid.

You're right, apparently it's actually wing manufacturing.

FreudianSlippers

Borderhopper wrote: »

The U.K. makes relatively few medicines, most come from EU companies or EU based subsidiaries. Almost no laboratory diagnostic equipment or consumables are manufactured in the U.K. and almost all is sourced from EU countries. 20 years experience in NHS medical pathology has shown me this.

Funny enough some of us were just talking about this in another (this?) thread. Ireland seems to export massive amounts of the medicines to Belgium who package and resell it.

Water John

Appearance money was mentioned in an earlier post. The politician who said, f**k business, had no problem standing in front of a JCB digger and spout his nonsense, all for fee of £10K.
David Davis takes a fee of £5K /month from the same company.
These are the principled politicians telling the UK people what's good for them.

FreudianSlippers

Folkstonian wrote: »

I don’t agree because there is no status quo. Rescinding the article 50 notice or having a second referendum doesn’t mean that things go back to how they were.

I actually agree with you on this point - but for the exact opposite reason. I think if the UK went to the EC right now and said: we'll stay in the EU if you agree that we can discuss x, y, z in the coming months with a view to constructive reform of the EU in line with the 4 freedoms and in a manner that doesn't undermine the fundamental purpose of the EU, I think the EC would agree.

c.p.w.g.w

Listening to question time...the Brits are fair delusional

spacecoyote

downcow wrote: »

Many posters on here are saying the majority in NI want to stay in Eu. There is no evidence for that. Yes a very small majority voted that way in the referendum

I don't even think I need to reply & point out the obvious here but I mean...wow, that is one of the most farcical points I've seen made on this thread.

1 - Everyone keeps saying NI wanted to stay
2 - There's no evidence for that
3 - Except for the evidence that I just pointed out myself one sentence later

FrancieBrady

funkey_monkey wrote: »

7 out of the 10 constituencies here that are represented by DUP voted to leave. Only Belfast North (Dodds), Belfast South (Pengelly) and Derry (Campbell) voted to remain.
The only Remain constituency represented by a remain MP is North Down (Hermon).

Despite what we all say about the DUP (and noone hates them more than me), they are representing their voters who voted to leave - and doing it badly in my opinion. It is not their fault that the remain regions voted in abstentionists who are not representing them during this crucial phase of parliament.

The missing 7 SF MPs could have negated the influence of the DUP - actually they would have, as the DUP would not have been king makers.

People voted for SF knowing that they would not be there in parliament. Tactically, it was an error by nationalists as the stoops would have taken their place and been a counter balance to the DUP.

BREXIT sucks. I can sometimes even sense the divisions arising at work. Talk of being forced into a UI, etc. People talking half truths and lies. Something I've never encountered in my previous 18 years of work.

The question on the ballot paper was not SF or DUP, it was Remain or Leave.
The majority (across the party divide) voted to Remain.

Charles Babbage

spacecoyote wrote: »

I don't even think I need to reply & point out the obvious here but I mean...wow, that is one of the most farcical points I've seen made on this thread.

1 - Everyone keeps saying NI wanted to stay
2 - There's no evidence for that
3 - Except for the evidence that I just pointed out myself one sentence later

The majority who wished to stay in NI was greater than the majority who wished to leave in Britain.

Strazdas

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Listening to question time...the Brits are fair delusional

They're screwed basically.....talking up No Deal as if they haven't a care in the world.

Headshot

Strazdas wrote: »

They're screwed basically.....talking up No Deal as if they haven't a care in the world.

That guy in the glasses gave me a good laugh.

sandbelter

aindriu80 wrote: »

What do you make of the polish leader Mateusz Morawiecki having a go at Ireland :

https://www.independent.ie/business/gavin-mcloughlin-leo-varadkar-was-brutally-undercut-by-his-polish-counterpart-in-front-of-the-worlds-most-influential-people-37745441.html

That country is starting to stink a lot for me

Just google and do some research on the Polish state's role in the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia in 1938. They single handy blocked the Russians coming to the Czechs aid, thereby permitting the Nazi invasion.

So the apple doesn't fall far from the tree I'm afraid...and blaming the Germans for everything in WW2 is a convenient way to other to shirk their responsibility.

They're a package deal....

blanch152

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Why should it not be an option? I've never been in an organisation that you aren't allowed to leave. I'd have thought it's only criminal gangs and such like that have these rules.

Of course it should be an option to leave.

However, if a club or an organisation is to work, then it should be worse for those who leave than those who stay. The UK will learn how bad after March 29.

c.p.w.g.w

Strazdas wrote: »

They're screwed basically.....talking up No Deal as if they haven't a care in the world.

Your one suewellan is literally lying through her teeth...no deal will mean no delays at Calais or Dover...

Headshot

That woman in blue is piece of work, the amount of bs she is spewing is typical of the brexiteers lies and they are just driving their country to recession

FrancieBrady

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Your one suewellan is literally lying through her teeth...no deal will mean no delays at Calais or Dover...

They all think they are at a football match and it will be over after 90 minutes.

Suella Braverman?? hasn't said anything of truth, only cheap rabble rousing.

Sierra Oscar

aindriu80 wrote: »

What do you make of the polish leader Mateusz Morawiecki having a go at Ireland :

https://www.independent.ie/business/gavin-mcloughlin-leo-varadkar-was-brutally-undercut-by-his-polish-counterpart-in-front-of-the-worlds-most-influential-people-37745441.html

That country is starting to stink a lot for me

The Polish Government are furious with Ireland at the moment because our judiciary have been very publicly calling out the Polish Government for implementing some very dodgy and authoritarian judicial reforms. This has resulted in the issue being raised at the highest levels in the EU, resulting in the possibility that Poland could be kicked out of various EU justice mechanisms such as the European Arrest Warrant and so on. They are having a go at us at every opportunity. Sad really.

c.p.w.g.w

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They all think they are at a football match and it will be over after 90 minutes.

Suella Braverman?? hasn't said anything of truth, only cheap rabble rousing.

That's her, I think she has lied 90% of the time she spoke. Find it interesting that she is pro brexit, control our borders...

WomanSkirtFan8

Strazdas wrote: »

They're screwed basically.....talking up No Deal as if they haven't a care in the world.

yep. But don't worry they'll find out the reality of that delusion soon enough. :cool:

WomanSkirtFan8

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Polish Government are furious with Ireland at the moment because our judiciary have been very publicly calling out the Polish Government for implementing some very dodgy and authoritarian judicial reforms. This has resulted in the issue being raised at the highest levels in the EU, resulting in the possibility that Poland could be kicked out of various EU justice mechanisms such as the European Arrest Warrant and so on. They are having a go at us at every opportunity. Sad really.

pathetic is the way i'd put it. No probs to us though as its lilke water off a duck's back.

Infini

spacecoyote wrote: »

I don't even think I need to reply & point out the obvious here but I mean...wow, that is one of the most farcical points I've seen made on this thread.

1 - Everyone keeps saying NI wanted to stay
2 - There's no evidence for that
3 - Except for the evidence that I just pointed out myself one sentence later

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

EVIDENCE!!!!

Seriously NI voted 56% to stay not 51 or 52 but 56% that's a decisive vote not a razor thin one like 52%. That's black and white evidence there.

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The Polish Government are furious with Ireland at the moment because our judiciary have been very publicly calling out the Polish Government for implementing some very dodgy and authoritarian judicial reforms. This has resulted in the issue being raised at the highest levels in the EU, resulting in the possibility that Poland could be kicked out of various EU justice mechanisms such as the European Arrest Warrant and so on. They are having a go at us at every opportunity. Sad really.

To be fair the only thing that happened here is there was a judge who sent a case for review because of doubts over someone getting a fair trial in Poland. In all honesty though what's getting the Polish government in trouble there is they're populists who are landing themselves in trouble because they're going against agreed norm's that the other states have. They're just throwing shade but won't do anything too serious as they aren't in a great position if the Brits start being tards and kicking out poles over their car crash brexit fiasco.

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Yes, I am well aware of that. I was one of those who voted to remain.
The point I am making is that it is not up to the DUP to represent those who voted for another party - one that stands on an abstentionist manifesto. Their voices are not being heard due to they themselves voting SF.
The DUP, for reasons best known to themselves, stood on a leave platform, and that is what they are following through on.

In fairness to the shinners lets be honest they're not stupid. The DUP are acting the bollocks with stormont, the whole cash for ash fiasco with Arelene shows they a party of cronyism with no interest in facts outside their blinkered ideology and no integrity which in fairness our politicians at least have the integrity to resign if they mess up and put themselves in an aquward position here. The DUP have adopted a policy that is literally going to backfire if the likes of Moggles and BoJo get their wish and the UK crashes out. Brexit is the biggest gift for them in decades all they got to do is bide their time and when thing's go tits up they can tear the likes of the DUP apart for their incompetent stupidity while at the same time offer a UI as the most immediate solution to problems that were inflicted on the province by an incompetent DUP and a dysfunctional Tory and Labour party who did not act in the best interests of the nation.

FrancieBrady

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Yes, I am well aware of that. I was one of those who voted to remain.
The point I am making is that it is not up to the DUP to represent those who voted for another party - one that stands on an abstentionist manifesto. Their voices are not being heard due to they themselves voting SF.
The DUP, for reasons best known to themselves, stood on a leave platform, and that is what they are following through on.

I don't think you are. It wasn't a vote to support a particular party.
The 'voice' is quite clear - 56% of the people of northern Ireland wish to remain in the EU.

serfboard

Infini wrote: »

they aren't in a great position if the Brits start being tards and kicking out poles over their car crash brexit fiasco.

A million extra mouths to feed?

Trying to prevent that is their motivation.

Fionn1952

funkey_monkey wrote: »

The missing 7 SF MPs could have negated the influence of the DUP - actually they would have, as the DUP would not have been king makers.

Why does this nonsense still persist!? I thought it was debunked several threads ago.

It isn't like we even need to discuss the political impact SF may have on the middle ground, this is basic f**king arithmetic.

If nothing else changed, and SF went to Westminster, and stood in direct opposition to every government position, DUP would STILL be kingmakers.

Without SF in Westminster, the government have a majority of 13 seats. If every elected SF representative took their seat, that would reduce the government's parliamentary majority to 6.

If we consider the motion of no confidence vote, which passed by 19 votes, even if SF voting one way hadn't convinced anyone to change sides, that leaves a majority of 12.

This isn't rocket science, it just requires basic reading ability instead of parroting off blatant mistruths without checking them for yourself.

This is without even opening the can of worms as to how much it could be seen as a betrayal of those who voted for SF based on their abstentionist platform. I'm pretty certain that there weren't a significant number of their voters who were unaware of this part.

moceri

EU now putting the squeeze on Ireland to start implementing the infrastructure for a Border Frontier... Which is what I suspected was going to happen anyway. I think Leo & Simon have been ambushed. https://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/eu-now-looks-set-to-ask-ireland-to-accept-concessions-37739911.html